There were a number of players attempting to add some vital points in their bid to reach the World Tour Finals in London, but six of the eight players chasing the final five positions have already been knocked out of the tournament in Shanghai.
The big match on Thursday was between Andy Murray and David Ferrer as both are just on the outside looking into the top eight places and it is Murray who should be kicking himself. After taking the opening set easily, Murray missed some chances early in the second set to take control of the match and was eventually defeated by a Ferrer performance that has to be the best he has produced in a couple of months.
That win also means Ferrer moves above Murray in Race to London, although he will need another surprise result if he is to build on that with a Quarter Final against Novak Djokovic next up. The biggest beneficiary of the week so far has to be Tomas Berdych who has backed up his run to the Final in Beijing last week with another strong showing and he is playing with a lot of confidence.
Berdych is in the 'weaker' half of the draw with how things have panned up this week and there is every chance he can reach the Final from here which would mean he is on the brink of securing his place in London for another year. A win on Friday will see him up to 6th, but reaching the Final will get him very close to Kei Nishikori before Berdych moves on to Stockholm next week.
I believe Marin Cilic is one player that can play without any fear of reaching the World Tour Finals for the first time with the rules stating that one Grand Slam winner finishing outside of the top eight will be given a place in the Tour Finals as long as he hasn't finished lower than 20th in the Race.
With Stan Wawrinka almost certainly assured of playing in London, that would mean Cilic is going to receive a place no matter how his last few tournaments go, although the Croatian would surely love to book his place on merit. If he does that, Cilic would have some momentum to take to the O2 Arena next month.
Tomas Berdych - 3.5 games v Gilles Simon: Gilles Simon won't be a player that is easily dismissed with the way he approaches his tennis and the Frenchman also has the lead in the head to head with Tomas Berdych. However, that didn't help Richard Gasquet when he took on Berdych and I think the latter sees the possibility for adding some serious points from here to his Race to London and that should keep the big Czech player motivated.
Berdych has been in decent form the last couple of weeks, despite the hammering he took at the hands of Novak Djokovic in the Final in Beijing last week, and the big man has dictated behind his big game.
He has to avoid getting frustrated and perhaps pushing a little too hard as most know that Gilles Simon will look to get under the skin of Berdych by getting a lot of balls back in play. His variation can be a problem to deal with too, but Simon has to serve effectively as that is an area where Berdych could punish him.
Despite the head to head lead, a lot of those matches were played when Simon would have been the higher Ranked player and I think Berdych can repeat the formula that saw him beat the Frenchman in Bangkok last season. There might be some long rallies where Berdych has to show his mettle in this one, but he should prove too good for Simon on current form and come through with a cover.
Feliciano Lopez - 2.5 games v Mikhail Youzhny: These two veterans of the ATP Tour met for the first time back in 2002 and they will be playing for the eighth time on Friday with Feliciano Lopez winning 5 of the previous 7.
That doesn't mean it is going to be a straight forward decision to back the Spaniard to win this one, but Lopez has been in fine form this week and has the 'better' wins over quality opponents than Mikhail Youzhny.
Lopez clearly enjoys himself here as he has twice reached the Semi Final before and he can make it a hat-trick of appearances at that stage with his serve likely to offer a few more easier points than Youzhny who could be forced to work for his points. It has not normally been much fun for the Russian in this part of China as Youzhny had previously failed to win a match in the Masters event in Shanghai, but confidence would have been restored with the week so far.
It doesn't change the fact that Youzhny has slipped some this season and I think he had the tougher Third Round match which could have taken something out of the legs. This might need three sets to separate them, but I like Lopez to move into another Semi Final in Shanghai.
Novak Djokovic - 5.5 games v David Ferrer: It does seem a day, to me at least, that the favourites could come through the matches with some clear victories and I think Novak Djokovic is capable of seeing off this big spread.
Djokovic was made to work hard for his Third Round win, but that should refocus a player that has performed very well in his post-US Open Asian swing and I do believe he has the motivation of wanting to wrap up the World Number 1 Ranking before his wife gives birth.
If that was to happen in the coming weeks, there might be a real reason for Djokovic to perhaps lose a little focus on court matters and so picking up wins to add up to securing the end of year World Number 1 Ranking is keeping him occupied. David Ferrer is certainly no pushover, but the win over Andy Murray was the best he has played in some time and I do wonder if he can dig down and find another performance of that level.
There might be a little bit of mental tiredness in the Spaniard's game and he could have been wiped out by Murray if the latter had taken some early second set chances. If Djokovic gets into that position, I don't expect him to be as generous as the British Number 1 and I think he will pull away for the win.
Roger Federer - 4.5 games v Julien Benneteau: You'd have to have had your head buried in the sand if you don't know that Julien Benneteau has given Roger Federer some real problems when these two have met in the past. The Frenchman has won 2 of the 7 matches, although both came on indoor hard courts, but Benneteau was also two sets up at Wimbledon before crumbling and going down in a classic five set match.
Roger Federer has a number of routine wins over Benneteau too in that time, but this is a match that has to be taken seriously by the former World Number 1 and Federer spoke about it in that manner.
He played better in his win over Roberto Bautista-Agut compared with the one against Leonardo Mayer and I think Federer is capable of dictating play in this one. Federer has admitted that Benneteau is capable of raising his level when he comes up against the best players on the Tour, but the added focus that Federer should have invested in the match should help him come through.
The Benneteau serve can be vulnerable and this has the hallmarks of a potential 63, 64 win for Federer which is about as easy as he will ever get it against a player that has been something of a bogey one for the 17 time Slam Champion.
MY PICKS: Tomas Berdych - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Feliciano Lopez - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic - 5.5 Games @ 2.35 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 4.5 Games @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 4-4, - 1 Unit (16 Units Staked, - 6.25% Yield)
No comments:
Post a Comment