Shanghai Masters Tennis Picks 2014 (October 11th)

The Quarter Finals were completed on Friday and the Shanghai Masters has produced two of the more famous names of the Tour and two surprise faces as the final four players competing for the title here. It was a good day of tennis, but Saturday looks to be a rainy one, albeit one of showers rather than continuous rain.

I am not sure whether that means it will be a stop-start kind of day for the two Semi Finals to be played with Feliciano Lopez and Gilles Simon up first before the marquee match of the week when Novak Djokovic meets Roger Federer for a fifth time this season.


It was another mixed day for the picks after Feliciano Lopez just missed covering the spread against Mikhail Youzhny despite dominating that match, but it was made up by Novak Djokovic who secured a late double break against David Ferrer to ease through that Quarter Final.


Feliciano Lopez v Gilles Simon: I have read as much as possible to feel that Feliciano Lopez is a surprise underdog in this Semi Final against Gilles Simon and I like the Spaniard to get past the Semi Final in Shanghai at the third time of asking.

I was impressed with the way Simon has played the last couple of weeks and the Frenchman himself has felt that he is returning to something like his best form.

However, I feel Simon relies heavily on his defensive ability on the court and that is where I think Feliciano Lopez' extra aggression can pay dividends. Very few players on the Tour make a real effort to get to the net as much as possible and I think that is where Lopez can cut off some of the rallying balls that Simon plays to stay in rallies.

While others will wait at the back of the court for the loopy returns when defending, Lopez is much more likely to get to the net and put away volleys, while his big serve should really help the Spaniard dictate points. I also believe Lopez could have a little more left in the tank at the business end of this week having spent less time on court than Simon and I do think he is able to win this match and will back him to do so.


Roger Federer + 3.5 games v Novak Djokovic: Yesterday I did like the favourites, but I prefer the two underdogs in the Semi Finals, although I am not completely convinced Roger Federer will beat Novak Djokovic so will take the games in this Semi Final.

The winner of this match is very likely going to win the tournament and build some momentum to take into the last month of the season and both players have some real goals to achieve before 2014 comes to a close.

Matches between Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic have been very competitive as both players accept there isn't much disguise as to what the other wants to do on the court. This is the fifth meeting between them this season with two wins apiece, although it was Djokovic who won the biggest match in the Wimbledon Final and I think this is going to be another competitive match.

I give Federer the edge because there were some small signs of fatigue in Novak Djokovic during his Quarter Final win over David Ferrer. Someone like Federer serves big enough and has heavy groundstrokes that can expose any mental tiredness there is, but Djokovic has played very well in Shanghai and over the last couple of weeks which is hard to ignore.

Three sets looks almost certain from the match and that could make those games Federer is being given very important and I like him to stay within the number even if he can't quite get over the winning line.

MY PICKS: Feliciano Lopez @ 2.40 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Roger Federer + 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 6-6, - 0.20 Units (24 Units Staked, - 1% Yield)