Top Ten
1) San Diego Chargers (4-1): It might be a surprise to some to see the Chargers move up to this spot, but they have a real chance of usurping Denver in the AFC West and Philip Rivers is playing like the best Quarter Back in the NFL right now.
2) Seattle Seahawks (3-1): The reigning Super Bowl Champions still look the team to beat in the NFC.
3) Denver Broncos (3-1): The Broncos blew out one of the two unbeaten teams in the NFL at home, but there are bigger tests ahead for them including the battle with the Chargers for the AFC West Division.
4) Dallas Cowboys (4-1): We will know a lot more about Dallas by the end of Week 6.
5) New York Giants (3-2): Three wins in a row and the Defense playing at a high level is good news for the Giants, but they have a huge road game in Philadelphia this weekend.
6) Philadelphia Eagles (4-1): Record is a little flattering for the Eagles, but beating the Giants would be a huge confidence boost for this team.
7) Indianapolis Colts (3-2): Three wins in a row and a chance to get a real hold of the AFC South Division if they can knock off the Houston Texans on the road on Thursday Night Football.
8) San Francisco 49ers (3-2): Jim Harbaugh is still under pressure as Head Coach, but the team is improving on both sides of the ball.
9) Green Bay Packers (3-2): The Packers still look the best team in the NFC North, especially if Calvin Johnson remains limited for the Detroit Lions.
10) New England Patriots (3-2): Huge win against the Cincinnati Bengals and Tom Brady isn't as finished as some people believed.
Bottom Five
32) Jacksonville Jaguars (0-5): This is just a poor team that is still in rebuilding mode.
31) Oakland Raiders (0-4): Dennis Allen is gone and Tony Sporano will be tasked with turning around another poor season for the Raiders who are coming off a bye.
30) New York Jets (1-4): Aside from beating the poor Oakland Raiders, the New York Jets have struggled since on both sides of the ball and had an embarrassing loss in San Diego last week.
29) Tennessee Titans (1-4): Arguably should be even lower after losing a game where they allowed the biggest road comeback EVER by the... Wait for it... Cleveland Browns Quarter Backed by Brian Hoyer.
28) Washington Redskins (1-4): It looks a tough season for Jay Gruden in his first year as Head Coach in Washington.
Week 6 Picks
It was an up and down Week 5 to say the least for the picks, but thankfully it was the smaller picks that failed to come through as winners, which means another profitable week is in the books. It was a little disappointing too with the way things went down, as it was another small profit last week, but I had a touch of fortune on my side with Pittsburgh covering thanks to a late pick-six.
With only two teams on a bye this week again, there is another fairly full week worth of games on slate and the picks will be placed on this thread as they are locked down.
Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans Pick: The first set of Thursday Night Football games have been a real disappointment for the neutrals, while the favourites have been very strong in this game and I think that is the reason that so many are pounding the favourite to cover the spread this week.
To be perfectly honest, I think the Indianapolis Colts are the right choice although the spread is perhaps a touch high when you consider the Colts were only 7.5 point home favourites against the Tennessee Titans.
The Houston Texans are certainly better than the Titans, but I think Ryan Fitzpatrick is never too far away from throwing critical Interceptions that can cost his team the win. Arian Foster will have a strong game for Houston, but the Colts may decide to stack the box and force Fitzpatrick to beat them and I would take Andrew Luck in the Quarter Back battle all day.
Luck has been playing at a very high level and he should have his way with this Secondary with the limited pressure he will be put under by the Defensive Line. Even the pressure he sees might not be enough as Luck shows he can scramble away from that and make plays with his legs, while Ahmad Bradshaw should give him support on the ground.
Houston also have to pick themselves up from a disappointing overtime loss to the Dallas Cowboys and I don't think the Texans are as good as their 3-2 record may suggest. The momentum is with Indianapolis who have won 3 games in a row to bounce back from their disappointing 0-2 start and I think they will have a little too much from the Quarter Back position that sees them win this game and cover.
Denver Broncos @ New York Jets Pick: Sometimes you can't help look at a game like a square and this is one of those games as I can't see how the Denver Broncos are going to be slowed down by a mentally fractured team like the New York Jets.
All of the trends you will find will point to the Jets being the right side as teams rarely follow blow out wins and losses by doing the exact same thing a week later, especially in the NFL.
However, Peyton Manning has so many options to throw to that I am struggling for any real reason or way that the Denver Broncos are not moving the ball fairly consistently up and down the field all day. The New York Jets can get pressure up front which is going to pose some problems, but Manning loves the little bubble screens to his Receivers that the ball will be coming out of his hands quickly and then this Jets Secondary will have big issues slowing down drives.
I do think Geno Smith can't possibly be as horrific as he has been at times, especially in the first half of the loss to San Diego last weekend, but the pressure could be on the second year Quarter Back if Denver continue holding teams on the ground.
If that is the case, it wouldn't surprise me to see Smith make a couple of bad throws that stall drives or, even worse, are Intercepted to give Denver the extra possessions to beat this spread.
The Broncos are also 9-4 against the spread as the road favourite since Peyton Manning arrived, while the Jets have the hated New England Patriots on deck just four days after this one. It might be a little square taking the Broncos, but I think they win this by double digits on the road.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns Pick: There isn't much in the spread this week, but I was very surprised that the Pittsburgh Steelers were going to go into this game as the underdog and I like them to continue their strong run against the Cleveland Browns.
Cleveland stunned many with their comeback in the second half of the first game against Pittsburgh as they looked a different team from the one that had competed in the first half and looked set to be blown out. However, they were back to doing that last week with their huge emotional come from behind win over the Tennessee Titans which was the biggest one on the road in NFL history.
The Browns should have every chance of moving the ball in this one, but I also expect the Pittsburgh Steelers are going to be able to take their shots downfield. Ben Roethlisberger has been very good against Cleveland in the past and the Steelers love playing in an underdog role.
The Steelers are 7-4 against the spread as the road underdog, while they have been very strong in that time when they are only dogged by a Field Goal or less, going 5-2 against the spread.
Pittsburgh are also 6-3 against the spread as the road underdog in Divisional games since Mike Tomlin took over as Head Coach. Add in the fact that Cleveland have rarely been a home favourite against AFC North teams in the last decade, but are still 0-4 against the spread in that time and the strong record that Pittsburgh have against Cleveland means I will take the points.
Green Bay Packers @ Miami Dolphins Pick: When looking at this game, there are a lot of factors pointing towards the Miami Dolphins as being the right side considering they are coming off a bye, Joe Philbin knows Aaron Rodgers strengths and weaknesses, and the Green Bay Packers are coming off a run of three consecutive Divisional games with Carolina and New Orleans next on the slate.
The question is how can the Green Bay Packers be focused for a non-Conference game in the midst of this run of games, but a couple of early losses means the Packers are far from in control in the NFC North. Winning the Division is very important, but the Packers must have stronger ambitions of trying to finish with a bye in the Wild Card Round, while the Number 1 seed in the NFC is also likely up for grabs with a strong finish.
That is enough motivation for me to believe the Packers will be focused, especially as they are now 14-2 coming off a bye or a Thursday Night Football game since 2006. The extra days to prepare for this game against the Miami Dolphins could work for Green Bay, although the key to their success may be trying to stop the Dolphins rushing Offense which will look to control the clock and keep Rodgers off the field.
Lamar Miller figures to have some real success running the ball, but this Packers Defense is also pretty good at creating turnovers and I can see them winning that factor on the way to taking this game. It won't be an easy day for Aaron Rodgers as he should be facing a lot of pressure from the Dolphins pass rush, but he has looked very good the last two games and an elite Quarter Back that can make the big plays while scrambling away from pressure.
I won't lie- a lot of the trends are favouring the Dolphins in this game, but I do think the Packers are the better team and I have a gut feeling that Green Bay will win the turnover battle which will prove to be the difference in the game.
Dallas Cowboys @ Seattle Seahawks Pick: Two of the leading teams in the early NFC meet one another in what looks a very good game when Seattle host Dallas, but the key to the whole game and how competitive it will be comes down to the performance of the Dallas Offensive Line and DeMarco Murray.
It seems strange to put it down to something as small as that, but Murray will be tasked to run the ball against this tough Seattle Defense which is giving up fewer than 3 yards per carry on the season and who shut down Alfred Morris on Monday Night Football. If Murray can keep the Offense in third and short situations, Dallas can control the clock and win this game as we saw Arizona do something similar last season.
Tony Romo won't have to take too much time with the ball in his hands and could keep the chains moving, but Murray has to avoid the fumbles that are the only question mark against Running Back that looks the real deal. Murray can punish a physical Seattle Defense, but the Seahawks will also feel confident they can force mistakes and win this game.
When Russell Wilson has the ball, I fully expect he will be able to move the chains, either with his arm or his legs, but the Quarter Back will also appreciate having Marshawn Lynch and Percy Harvin to hand the ball to. All three players could keep the chains moving on the ground against this Dallas Defense and it might be tough for the Cowboys to stop Seattle who don't make the same mistakes when it comes to turnovers as some other teams may.
Seattle are now 14-5 against the spread as the home favourite under Pete Carroll, although coming off Monday Night Football has proved problematic for them over the last couple of seasons.
They are also facing a Dallas team that were down big against St Louis earlier in the season and lost to San Francisco so I do wonder if the NFC West is a bad match up for the Cowboys. Add in the fact that the Cowboys are beginning two Divisional games in a row next week and have had a tough win last weekend, and I do think Seattle will pull away for another double digit win over an NFC East opponent.
New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles Pick: The three leading teams in the NFC East may all have the same record by the time the NFL is completed on Sunday so you can tell that I quite like the New York Giants on the road at Philadelphia this week, albeit I will be taking the points on offer.
Eli Manning has really played well the last three weeks and he seems to be on board with what the Coaches want from him, while the return of Odell Beckham from injury gives him another weapon to rely upon.
The Offensive Line has also played well and the Giants should be able to move the chains even though Rashad Jennings is out, a Running Back that is a strong part of the passing game and Andre Williams might be able to fill the running part of the Offense, but Peyton Hillis could be used in passing downs.
The Giants Defense has also played a lot better the last four weeks and I think they can get pressure on Nick Foles against this make-shift Offensive Line. Penetration into the backfield has prevented LeSean McCoy from being untangled and the Giants have played the run effectively so Foles could be under pressure to make plays.
Jason Pierre-Paul said the Eagles are a fortunate 4-1 and I would agree with him- if the Giants hadn't shot themselves in the foot against Arizona, they would be 4-1 too and I think they are a little under-rated at the moment, although the spread is about right. The Giants are also 13-4 against the spread in their last 17 games against Divisional rivals as the road underdog, including blasting Washington earlier this season and I really think they are the right choice in this game.
The Eagles can wear teams down with their up-tempo style of play, but the Giants will have been prepared to face that after seeing them last season and I think they are playing the better football of the two teams.
0 Unit Picks: Jacksonville Jaguars + 4 Points, Baltimore Ravens - 3.5 Points, Minnesota Vikings - 2 Points, Buffalo Bills + 2.5 Points, Cincinnati Bengals - 6.5 Points, Oakland + 7.5 Points, Washington Redskins + 3.5 Points, Chicago Bears + 3 Points
MY PICKS: Indianapolis Colts - 2.5 Points @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Denver Broncos - 8.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Pittsburgh Steelers + 1.5 Points @ 1.95 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Green Bay Packers - 3 Points @ 2.05 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Seattle Seahawks - 8 Points @ 1.95 Paddy Power (2 Units)
New York Giants + 2.5 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Denver Broncos - 8.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Pittsburgh Steelers + 1.5 Points @ 1.95 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Green Bay Packers - 3 Points @ 2.05 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Seattle Seahawks - 8 Points @ 1.95 Paddy Power (2 Units)
New York Giants + 2.5 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Week 4: 4-4, + 0.02 Units
Week 3: 8-2, + 9.82 Units
Week 2: 5-3, + 1.50 Units
Week 1: 3-6, - 3.18 Units
Season 2014: 23-19-1, + 9.00 Units
Season 2013: 86-70-2, + 22.27 Units
Season 2012: - 4.78 Units
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