The last two weeks of my picks have been absolutely brutal in relation to the College Football games, but I really do feel that a little bit of luck would have switched so much last weekend.
Some were just plain awful picks, but turnovers are the one factor that you can't really factor in, especially not through fumbles. It felt that every team I picked last week decided to shoot themselves in the foot, and I was frustrated and angry to say the least.
Notre Dame, Auburn and Baylor all decided to spot teams huge leads and while two of those came back to remain unbeaten, they all failed to cover thanks to their poor starts. At one point, I even tweeted out that the Fighting Irish and Auburn had played around ten minutes combined but had committed four turnovers which had resulted in both teams being 14-0 down early in those games.
Baylor got into the act too as nothing seemed to go my way with all those turnovers resulting in a 21 point edge to the teams that I hadn't backed in terms of points off turnovers. It isn't just earning a change in possession, it was the fact that all three teams were either throwing pick-sixes, or turning the ball over within their own 30 yard line giving their Defenses almost no chance to keep points off the board.
My only hope is that some of that misfortune lands on my side going forward if this season isn't going to be a total write off for the picks with a big hole to get out of. You can't get too frustrated though and look for a recovery all in one week, but it has to be built up over the remaining six weeks of the regular season and hopefully push into a positive during the Bowl season.
After Week 7, there are only 6 unbeaten teams left in the nation and two of those will be facing off when the Notre Dame Fighting Irish visit the Florida State Seminoles in the late Saturday game. There is now every chance that a Conference winner of two with a loss on their record will take part in the final four Play Off for the National Championship, although you would think Florida State and Baylor are looking to end the season unbeaten to guarantee their places.
The winner of the SEC is almost guaranteed to be placed in the Play Off and I would likely say the winner of the Pac-12 would currently be ahead of the winner of the Big Ten, although these things can change. A loss for Baylor would almost certainly end the chances of the Big 12 being represented unless other Conference Champions have two losses on the record, although that is just my personal opinion and a problem the Big 12 were always going to have without a Championship Game.
Fresno State Bulldogs @ Boise State Broncos Pick: There is a real chance that these two schools could be competing for the Mountain West Championship this season as the two leading contenders in the Mountain and West Division, although the losing team will be playing catch up in their respective Division.
Boise State have the advantage of home field this season and have some momentum clawed back after losing to Air Force by whipping Nevada, while the Fresno State Bulldogs need to recover from a very poor loss to the UNLV Rebels.
The more balance Offensive success should be found by the Broncos who might have as much success running the ball as they do throwing it and that balance could be the key for sustaining drives and winning this game. Establishing a run slows down the pass rush just enough, although Interceptions have been a problem for Boise State, but being in third and manageable situations should work to their favour.
On the other hand, Fresno State will have success throwing the ball, but Boise State could shut down the rushing Offense and keep the Bulldogs in third and long, obviously a much tougher position to prevent the stalling of drives. The Boise State pass rush should be very effective and I can see a couple of turnovers coming their way with the ball-hawking Secondary and may prove to be the difference between these Conference rivals.
The Broncos have won the last 8 games in the series against the spread and I will back them to make that nine in a row this week as a couple of turnovers allows them to pull away from the Bulldogs.
Kansas State Wildcats @ Oklahoma Sooners Pick: I really wish this spread had stayed above the double digit mark that it had opened up with, but Kansas State have proved to be a popular choice and I still think there is something to be said to take the Wildcats with a Touchdown head-start in this game.
Bill Snyder has had a bye week to organise the game plan to take advantage of the Oklahoma Sooners, while the home team have also come off two tough games and have begun to look a little vulnerable.
Trevor Knight has made one too many mistakes at Quarter Back and Kansas City could force Knight to make the plays by slowing down the rushing Offense that the Sooners will run.
On the other hand, Jake Waters should have a real shot of producing big numbers in this game against a Secondary that has struggled and I am not impressed by Oklahoma's numbers against Texas last week when they were outgained by 250 total yards.
Kansas State have a 4-1 record against the spread in their last 5 visits to Norman, including winning straight up twice in their last four games here, while the Wildcats are also 13-2 against the spread as the underdog over the last three and a half seasons. They are 12-3 against the spread as the road underdog since Bill Snyder returned as Head Coach and this is a team that thrives when being ruled out.
My one doubt is that Oklahoma have won all 15 games played after the Red River Rivalry game against Texas under Bob Stoops, but I still think the extra time afforded to Snyder to prepare for this game will pay dividends.
Syracuse Orange @ Wake Forest Demon Deacons Pick: The Syracuse Orange have had a couple of tough games against unbeaten teams Notre Dame and Florida State over the last month, but this game against the Wake Forest Demon Deacons should be more up their street even if Wake Forest are coming in off a bye.
Even though the Orange are playing with a backup Quarter Back, they showed they can move the chains with their ability to run the ball, although it will still be a tough afternoon against a Demon Deacons Defense that has played fairly well at times.
However, they haven't been the best at stopping the run and that is where Syracuse can get their Offense in a good position to at least score points, while Wake Forest have to hope the bye week can change their own Offensive problems.
Wake Forest just haven't been able to run the ball, while the Offensive Line can't protect the Quarter Back and it may be tough for them get a lot of change out of this Syracuse Defense. Syracuse have had some big defeats recently, but they won't have too many better chances to get back to winning ways and potentially get a little closer to becoming Bowl eligible.
There is no doubt that this is an unfamiliar position for Syracuse to be favoured on the road, but they did win in such a situation comfortably earlier in the season and I think they win here.
Baylor Bears @ West Virginia Mountaineers Pick: If you like high-powered Offenses, this Big 12 game should be right up your alley, especially if the last couple of games between the Baylor Bears and West Virginia Mountaineers is anything to go by. Those two games have come just a couple of points short of combining for 250 points and the feeling is that we will see another high-scoring game between the teams on Saturday.
Both are coming off the high of big comeback wins last weekend as Baylor somehow remained unbeaten against the TCU Horned Frogs and West Virginia came from 14 down to beat the Texas Tech Red Raiders, so both teams have put in some real emotional effort in the last seven days.
Bryce Petty and Clint Trickett have shown their ability to throw from Quarter Back already and both should have decent days, but there are a couple of differences between the Offenses that should give Baylor the edge. The first of those is the Offensive Line and pass rush pressure should provide a cleaner pocket for Petty of the two Quarter Backs.
The second is that Petty can rely on Shock Linwood and the Baylor rushing Offense to set him up in more manageable down and distance compared with the West Virginia counterparts and those issues might just see Trickett make a couple of critical errors that turns the tide in Baylor's favour.
The Oklahoma Sooners won by 12 points here earlier this season and Baylor will certainly feel they can come very close to matching that kind of margin of victory. That dropped West Virginia to 2-4 against the spread as the home underdog under Dana Holgersen while the Bears are 3-0 against the spread as the road favourite this season.
Iowa Hawkeyes @ Maryland Terrapins Pick: The Iowa Hawkeyes could be the favourite to represent the Big Ten West in the Conference Championship Game this season, but even Head Coach Kirk Ferentz admitted you don't know anything about a team until they play on the road. The Maryland Terrapins have had a bye week to prepare for the game and it is a Homecoming game, but I still believe the Hawkeyes can make this a very competitive game.
The Hawkeyes have had three straight wins coming into this one with some momentum and they should find some success running the ball which will also open things up for Jake Rudock who will be part of a rotation at Quarter Back.
Iowa's Defense will feel they can slow down the Maryland rush yards to point of making it tough to throw against their Secondary and they have played well by holding teams to 200 passing yards per game. The Defensive Line will find some pressure on CJ Brown at Quarter Back, who also has to be on a short leash having been pulled during the rout by the Ohio State Buckeyes last time out, and that could lead to Interceptions which is an area where the Hawkeyes have thrived.
Maryland haven't played well as a favourite of late as they are 1-6 against the spread in that position in their last 7 games, while the Hawkeyes have covered as the road underdog in the last 3 times they have been in that spot.
Rutgers Scarlet Knights @ Ohio State Buckeyes Pick: Both schools are coming off a bye after important Big Ten wins and the winner of this game will certainly be in line to challenge Michigan State for the Division in the Big Ten East.
When I first saw the point spread, I was extremely surprised, but the number has kept increasing in favour of the Ohio State Buckeyes who people can't get enough of and I think that it has reached a level where the Rutgers Scarlet Knights look the right side.
The only team that both have played is at the Navy Midshipmen and both Ohio State and Rutgers won that game, while the Scarlet Knights outgained Navy by 3 more yards than the Buckeyes.
Gary Nova has avoided some of the turnovers that have plagued him as the Quarter Back of Rutgers and he should help the team move the chains in this one, although it is clear that Ohio State might have a slightly easier time to do that. JT Barrett has replaced Braxton Miller at Quarter Back when the latter was injured and lost for the season and Barrett has produced some big numbers, while he should be aided by the establishing the run.
However, this Rutgers Defensive Line will be able to get some real pressure on Barrett which could stall drives if not result in turnovers and I do think Nova makes enough plays through the air to keep this within a three Touchdown loss for the Scarlet Knights.
Even though the Ohio State Buckeyes are coming in off three large victories, Rutgers are 7-2 against the spread as the road underdog with Kyle Flood as Head Coach and they can make this somewhat competitive.
Michigan State Spartans @ Indiana Hoosiers Pick: The next two games for the Michigan State Spartans following this one will tell Mark Dantonio all he needs to know of the chances for his team to be playing in the final four Play Off for the National Championship. That doesn't mean they can overlook the Indiana Hoosiers despite the loss of their starting Quarter Back and Dantonio has made it clear there are still things for the Spartans to iron out if they are to win the Big Ten Conference.
Indiana losing Nate Sudfeld is a huge blow to their chances of not just causing a surprise in this game, but also of becoming Bowl eligible for the first time since 2007. Looking at their schedule it was clear that winning half of their last six games would have been tough with Sudfeld behind Center, but it is going to be a much more difficult task with the inexperienced Chris Covington at Quarter Back.
The Spartans Defense may initially look to shut down Tevin Coleman as much as possible and force Covington to move the chains with his arm, while this unit is also trying to prove they are ready for the big games with Michigan and Ohio State to come.
Michigan State have definitely looked very good Offensively, albeit against some overmatched opposition, and Connor Cook should have a strong day against the Indiana Secondary which could produce one of the easier wins the Spartans have had at Indiana in recent visits.
They might not have covered last week, but Michigan State are 9-2 against the spread as the road favourite in the last five seasons and they may improve those numbers this week.
Texas A&M Aggies @ Alabama Crimson Tide Pick: Everyone seems to be very down on the Alabama Crimson Tide after their performance against the Arkansas Razorbacks last week, but it might not be a big surprise that they had a mental letdown considering they lost their unbeaten record the week before in unfortunate circumstances.
The Crimson Tide outgained Mississippi in that loss, but they did remain in the hunt for a spot in the first Play Off with the win at Arkansas, although the criticism has annoyed Nick Saban no end.
With the public seemingly off the Alabama bandwagon, I think this is a good chance to back the Crimson Tide at home considering I believe this Offense is going to have a lot of success against the Texas A&M Aggies Defense. Some believed the Aggies Defense had improved markedly from last season, but they are still susceptible to the run and I can see Alabama dominating the trenches and controlling the clock.
Kenny Hill has played well for the Aggies, but has struggled the last two weeks as he has seen some really strong Defenses in Mississippi State and Ole Miss, especially when his team have not established a run. That could be a case for them this week with the Crimson Tide again dominating the trench on this side of the ball and forcing Hill to throw from third and long.
He has been Intercepted 5 times in the last two games and I think the Crimson Tide could be set up in short field to punish Texas A&M. The Aggies were beaten easily the last two weeks by the top two teams in the SEC West, and they are now 1-3 against the spread as the road underdog in SEC games over the last twelve months.
Alabama have covered in 6 straight home games as the favourite against SEC teams since their surprising loss to Johnny Manziel and this Aggies team in 2012 and I will look for them to be the stronger unit on both sides of the ball to secure a big win in Week 8.
New Mexico Lobos @ Air Force Falcons Pick: The Mountain West Mountain Division looks fairly wide open, although I don't think either the Air Force Falcons or the New Mexico Lobos will be threatening to win the Division.
The Falcons are only 1-2 in the Conference, while New Mexico are 0-2, but Air Force have already won 4 games this season which means another win pushes them a little closer to becoming Bowl eligible at least.
Air Force should be able to run the ball very effectively in this game and that will be the main way the Offense moves the chains with the situation calling for a pass also likely to be a successful venture for the Falcons.
It also does feel like the Lobos match up poorly against the Air Force Defense with their Offense mainly coming on the ground. That is where the Falcons have actually played pretty well, although the problems have been covering the pass, but New Mexico have averaged a little over 13 throws per game.
One major concern would be that Air Force have been a terrible home favourite to back to cover the spread, but I do feel there is enough in this game for them to come through by double digits.
Marshall Thundering Herd @ Florida International Golden Panthers Pick: The Marshall Thundering Herd have lived up to the expectations that many had for them as being the best team outside of the Power Conferences and they have been handling their business effectively with at least 42 points scored in every game this season.
They don't have an easy game against the Florida International Golden Panthers Defense which has played well this season, but Rakeem Cato presents a dual problem for them to deal with and it could be tough to slow down Marshall all that much.
A bigger problem for Florida International will be getting the Offense going if they do want to try and keep up with the Marshall Offense and that is an area they have struggled in all season. The Golden Panthers Offense is ranked at 119th out of 125 schools this season in total Offense and freshman Quarter Back Alex McGough has made too many mistakes.
Last week Florida International were beaten because they gave up five turnovers and those extra possessions will be feasted on by the Thundering Herd this week. Marshall dominated Florida International last season where they had more than double the total yards that the Golden Panthers put up and I am not sure there has been enough of a bridge in the gap between these schools.
The Golden Panthers are just 5-9 against the spread as the home underdog over the last two and a half seasons and Marshall might have a little too much Offense for them to deal with on Saturday.
Kentucky Wildcats @ LSU Tigers Pick: Over the last few seasons, the Kentucky Wildcats have been a whipping boy in the SEC with only one season where they have finished at least 4-4 in Conference play over the last ten seasons.
Mark Stoops may be working wonders for the Wildcats who have every chance of winning the SEC East having already gone 2-1 in Conference play while some of the other teams in this Division have been lacking consistency. Even the one loss came in overtime at the Florida Gators and Kentucky will go to Death Vally feeling they are at least on a more level playing field with the LSU Tigers.
The Tigers already look out of contention in the loaded SEC West having gone 1-2 in Conference play, but they did beat Florida on the road last week to avoid losing their first three Conference games for the first time since 1999.
The LSU Defense has struggled against the run this season and that is an area of the game where Kentucky certainly will feel confident of getting some large numbers, while Patrick Towles has avoided making mistakes at Quarter Back which will be key too. LSU's Offense has also been struggling for consistency and might have a difficult test against this Kentucky Wildcat Defense.
The Wildcats get pass pressure up front and they have been decent against the run, but Kentucky haven't faced this level of opposition consistently this season.
Kentucky are 3-2 against the spread as the road underdog under Mark Stoops and this looks a big spread at over ten points in their favour.
Stanford Cardinal @ Arizona State Sun Devils Pick: The Stanford Cardinal are most likely out of the Play Off mix for the National Championship regardless of whether they win the Pac-12 or not, but they can play spoiler for the rest of the teams in the Conference. There is a real chance they can win the Pac-12 North Division, although it will mean winning at the Oregon Ducks for Stanford to achieve that.
They also can't afford to overlook the Arizona State Sun Devils who won the Pac-12 South last season, although Stanford beat them twice including in the Conference Championship Game.
Stanford should have success moving the ball in this one, but their Offense has been inconsistent at best, while they sometimes get in their own way and that is the biggest hindrance to them this week. The Sun Devils have not contained the run or the pass that effectively so Kevin Hogan could have a strong game, although he needs to steer clear of turnovers and try to turn drives into Touchdowns rather than Field Goals if they are to win here.
The Defense has definitely kept Stanford in some games and this is one of the best units in the nation which will give the Arizona State Offense a difficult challenge to overcome. While the Sun Devils have move the ball effectively, the Cardinal have allowed just 3 yards per carry and also give up just 138 passing yards per game which will present Arizona State with a huge challenge to overcome.
The Cardinal have won 4 in a row in the series, going 3-0-1 against the spread in those games, while Arizona State are 2-6 against the spread as the underdog since Todd Graham took over as Head Coach (0-2 as the home underdog). I will look for the Stanford Defense to make enough plays to stall drives and the Offense to finally show some life and overcome the Sun Devils.
MY PICKS: Boise State Broncos - 17 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Kansas State Wildcats + 7 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Syracuse Orange - 5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Baylor Bears - 7.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Iowa Hawkeyes + 5 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Rutgers Scarlet Knights + 22 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Michigan State Spartans - 15 Points @ 1.92 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Alabama Crimson Tide - 13.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Air Force Falcons - 9.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Marshall Thundering Herd - 22.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Kentucky Wildcats + 10.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Stanford Cardinal - 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Week 7: 3-8, - 5.31 Units (11 Units Staked, - 48.27% Yield)
Week 6: 2-7, - 5.13 Units (9 Units Staked, - 57% Yield)
Week 5: 4-5, - 1.13 Units (9 Units Staked, - 12.56% Yield)
Week 4: 6-5, + 0.58 Units (11 Units Staked, + 5.27% Yield)
Week 3: 3-7-1, - 4.18 Units (11 Units Staked, - 38% Yield)
Week 2: 5-6, - 1.18 Units (11 Units Staked, - 10.72% Yield)
Week 1: 6-4, + 1.77 Units (10 Units Staked, + 11.7% Yield)
Season 2014: 29-42-1, - 14.58 Units (72 Units Staked, - 20.25% Yield)
Season 2013: 65-49-2, + 8.49 Units (124 Units Staked, + 6.85% Yield)
Season 2012: 54-59-1 - 7.11 Units (114 Units Staked, - 6.24% Yield)
Season 2011: 63-36, + 23.25 Units (99 Units Staked, + 23.5% Yield)
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