Boxing Picks 2023- Anthony Joshua vs Jermaine Franklin (April 1st)

The build up had been fantastic and the actual fight did not let us down, even if the refereeing was questionable to say the least.

Kenny Bayless aside, Caleb Plant and David Benavidez gave the fans what they wanted to see and there is no doubt that Benavidez deserves his shot at the Undisputed Super Middleweight crown. I am not sure he will get that opportunity next with the suggestion that Canelo Alvarez is going into a rematch with Dmitry Bivol later this year, but a Canelo vs Benavidez clash for Cinco de Mayo in 2024 looks like it could be a huge event.

I think Caleb Plant can come back too, despite losses to Canelo and Benavidez, but it was a tough loss and it will not be easy to overcome. He seems like a man with a lot of self-confidence though and I do think we will see Plant back in with some big names and especially if the World Titles end up fracturing over the next twelve months.

Seeing Jose Carlos Ramirez win his eliminator was all well and good, but I do hope he is now going to push for the shot at Regis Prograis... I won't be holding my breath having turned down that opportunity on a couple of occasions already.

In the UK, it is not going to be a big surprise to anyone that Lawrence Okolie was criticised in a number of quarters after a less than impressive win over David Light, but I think it is the Okolie style that can lead to these kind of fights. He can be very good on his best day, but I do think inactivity contributed to the performance and I am expecting a lot better with some big tests to come in the Cruiserweight Division before what feels an inevitable move up to the Heavyweight Division.

Th Undisputed Heavyweight clash has fallen apart, but we do have one of the top Heavyweights returning after back to back losses to Oleksandr Usyk.

Anthony Joshua headlines back in the O2 Arena on Saturday evening in London and that is the headline fight of the week.

A Friday night offering featuring a Eubank will draw some eyes, and in the United States there is an headline bout that will have the vacant WBO World Title on the line.

An up and down run for the Boxing Picks last week ended with a slight losing record, although the overall numbers for 2023 have just about remained in the black. The three 'two unit' selections all lost, but Ramirez securing a late Stoppage prevented it from being a really bad day and we will move on into the busy April schedule featuring some big names and the Super Fight between Gervonta Davis and Ryan Garcia.

Anthony Joshua vs Jermaine Franklin

You are never going to be too far from being criticised by those who live to watch you fall, especially if you're an elite athlete in the limelight.

Anthony Joshua will have always known that was possible ahead of his rematch with Oleksandr Usyk and losing a narrow Decision to one of the best Boxers in the world was not going to be good enough. I thought he made some decent adjustments between the two fights with Usyk, but I also thought the Unified Heavyweight Champion was the stronger performer down the stretch and deserved his win.

I am not that surprised that people are going to question Joshua's motivation as he prepares to return this weekend- however, I do think there is plenty to get your teeth stuck into in a vibrant Division where fans will be clamouring to see Anthony Joshua in the ring with Joe Joyce, Deontay Wilder and Tyson Fury, with or without the World Titles.

Becoming a three time World Champion would place his name amongst some of the greats, even if this is the age of the fractured World Title.

All of the above could come crashing down if Anthony Joshua is beaten on Saturday, but I like the decision he made to join up with Derrick James and heading out of his comfort zone to train in Texas will do him the world of good. In Texas no one is going to really care too much about a Heavyweight from Britain and I do think Anthony Joshua will be able to work on his craft under the tutelage of a top trainer and amongst some top Boxers.

I expect to see all of that on Saturday and I do think Anthony Joshua will do what many expected Dillian Whyte to do when he faced Jermaine Franklin last November.

The then unbeaten American came over with little support, but Jermaine Franklin impressed against Whyte and might have been unfortunate to not head back Stateside with a Decision win in his pocket. Jermaine Franklin looks in better shape now than he did, but I think the comparisons to Andy Ruiz Jr are overplayed and the performance against Dillian Whyte is not one that massively raises his stock in my eyes.

I do have a lot of time for Jermaine Franklin- he is a really nice guy and I do wish him the best.

But I think he is standing in front of a caged lion this weekend and Anthony Joshua is bigger, stronger and much more likely to test Franklin's resolve than Dillian Whyte.

Wins over Rydell Booker and Jerry Forrest are pretty solid, but Jermaine Franklin is going to have to show something more to keep Anthony Joshua from getting on top of him.

This does feel like a fight that Matchroom have put together to make Anthony Joshua look good and the Jermaine Franklin performance against Dillian Whyte made him an easy choice for the 'comeback' to begin. It makes it easy to create the narrative around the size of the challenge, but Anthony Joshua can make a big statement and pretty early in this scheduled Twelve Rounder.

You could argue that this is Joshua's 'easiest' fight since 2016 when he drilled Eric Molina- the early Knock Outs have gone since then, but that is not surprising when you think of the kind of names he has fought and I think we well get an 'old' performance from AJ. He hurt Kubrat Pulev early in his win over the Bulgarian in 2020 and also put down Andy Ruiz Jr in the Third Round before everything fell apart in that first fight at Madison Square Garden almost four years ago.

I expect him to hurt Franklin early too, but I am not sure the American will have the same resolve to get through the difficult moments with Anthony Joshua now working with a trainer who will be pushing for the statement win.

There are a number of young, up and coming fighters on the undercard and many of them have already spoken about the honour of being on an Anthony Joshua card.

Promoters are always on the look out for the next big star and Eddie Hearn will be hoping that some of his younger talent can continue their development and try and 'steal the show' in London.

I do think the card could have been stronger, but injury and illness have forced Felix Cash and Craig Richards from performing.

It is a shame, but there are still some decent fighters on the cards in bouts where they will be expected to impress.

Campbell Hatton has a lot to live up to as he continues his development in the professional ranks, but no one is rushing him right now. Ricky's son is unbeaten in ten fights and has been on cards in Gibraltar, Spain and the Middle East as well as a number of UK events, although the lack of Stoppages is perhaps a concern.

He is a prospect and this is a learning curve, but I do think Hatton has an opponent on this undercard who can be beaten inside the distance as Campbell Hatton prepares for his first Eight Rounder. Louis Fielding has been Stopped four times in his seven defeats and some of those defeats have been against Boxers that have not displayed a huge KO ratio from their previous wins, much like Hatton.

Another young, developing professional on the undercard is John Hedges and the Light Heavyweight can end the resistance of Daniel Bocianski inside the scheduled Eight Rounds.

At 20 years old, Hedges is still growing into his body and his power will likely come, while he is facing an opponent who has been Stopped once before and who was put down by Tommy Fury in the Fifth Round in their Sixth Rounder that ended with a Decision win for Tyson's younger brother.

John Hedges may feel he is further along than Tommy Fury and his two Stoppage wins have occurred in the last three fights he has had, perhaps another sign that he is growing into his body.

Daniel Bocianski will give it a go, but that may work in favour of Hedges who can secure an early Stoppage in this one.

I am also expecting a relatively early night for Galal Yafai who was supposed to be fighting on Matchroom's card next week, but has had his fight brought forward after Felix Cash was taken ill.

The change should not affect Yafai as much as Moises Calleros, who would have been preparing for this bout to take place in San Antonio. The late decision means having to travel to the United Kingdom and Calleros was well beaten when facing Julio Cesar Martinez three years ago.

The Mexican has won three fights in a row since then, but those have been at a lower level and I think Galal Yafai will have too much for him. The difference in level should be evident pretty quickly and I do think the change in venue is likely going to be a big factor in how quickly this one is entered into the books.

Any fighter coming out of Mexico has to be respected, and we have had some major upsets from Boxers coming over to the UK from that nation. However, Moises Calleros has been Stopped four times and a couple of those have been early, including the loss to Martinez, and I think Galal Yafai can get this one done within the first half of the fight.

A similar outcome is expected from both Fabian Wardley and Austin 'Ammo' Williams.

The latter is setting himself up for a big grudge bout with Felix Cash later in the year, and I think he can get back to Stopping opponents having needed the cards in each of his last two wins.

This time he is up against River Wilson-Bent, which is a step down from the last two opponents and it feels like he has been picked to make Williams look strong. Hamzah Sheeraz beat Wilson-Bent in Two Rounds and I don't think the Coventry fighter will have the pop to keep Austin Williams from getting on top of him early in this one.

Fabian Wardley may have things a little tougher against Michael Polite Coffie, but I still think he will win this contest before we get into the second half of the fight. Fourteen straight Stoppages have given Wardley momentum and he could soon be in a major domestic fight to prove he should move to the next level, while Polite Coffie has lost three of his last four and is a late notice replacement.

The American was once considered a real prospect, but he is 36 years old and he has been out of the ring for almost a full twelve months. Michael Polite Coffie is likely going to give this a go and Fabian Wardley has shown his defences need tightening up, although those vulnerabilities may not be exposed just yet as he continues his progress up the World Rankings.

This should be fun while it lasts, but Wardley has shown he hits plenty hard and has only been past the Fifth Round once in his career. Once he gets going, Fabian Wardley can quickly get on top of the older fighter and he can force the Stoppage in the first half.

On late Saturday night/early Sunday morning, Robeisy Ramirez will be looking to complete his rapid climb towards becoming a World Champion when he faces the tough Isaac Dogboe for the vacant WBO World Title.

The Cuban has bounced back from a surprising loss on his professional debut and has won eleven in a row, including a redemption win over Adan Gonzales. As he has stepped up his level of opponent, Robeisy Ramirez has looked better and better and this is another step up when facing a former World Champion.

Isaac Dogboe has not allowed his two losses to Emanuel Navarrete define him and he has won four in a row since following his old foe up to the Featherweight Division. The last three wins have either been in Majority or Split Decisions though and Dogboe might struggle with someone who looks to be a bit more natural at the weight class.

He is tough though and Dogboe won't stop trying, but I think this is an opportunity for Robeisy Ramirez to really impress in the second half of the fight and he can break down the Ghanaian born, United States resident who is representing the United Kingdom.

Robeisy Ramirez does carry power, but he is someone who is likely going to wear down Isaac Dogboe in this World Title tilt and I can see him forcing a mercy Stoppage late in the contest that is set for Twelve Rounds.

Another Friday night offering is also available in the United Kingdom this week following Lyndon Arthur's return last week. Like that bout, a late replacement has been needed to face Harlem Eubank who is looking to move onto some big fights.

His recent showings have seen Eubank try to move out of the shadow of Uncle Chris Eubank and cousin Chris Eubank Jr and that has led to Harlem Eubank just sitting down on shots and looking for the Stoppage.

At 29 years old Harlem Eubank is trying to step up his competition in the Light Welterweight Division and there are some potentially big domestic fights to be had.

The late replacement is Miguel Cesario Antin who has eleven losses on the record and just under half of those inside the distance. He has not fought since last September and I think Harlem Eubank should be able to come out and make a solid statement before asking his promoter for a fight or two that can push him up the World Rankings or potentially chasing a showdown with British Champion Dalton Smith.

MY PICKS: Anthony Joshua to Win Between 1-6 @ 2.62 William Hill (2 Units)

Campbell Hatton to Win By KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 1.72 Sky Bet (2 Units)

John Hedges to Win Between 1-4 @ 2.75 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Galal Yafai to Win Between 1-5 @ 2.87 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Austin Williams to Win Between 1-5 @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Fabian Wardley to Win Between 1-5 @ 1.72 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Robeisy Ramirez to Win Between 7-12 @ 3.30 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Harlem Eubank to Win By KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 2.05 Bet365 (2 Units)

Boxing 2023: 9-14, + 0.34 Units (41 Units Staked, + 1% Yield)

Miami Masters Tennis Picks 2023 (March 31st)

It has been a tough second half of the tournament after turning things around last weekend.

There isn't much you can do when the small margins go against you and that has been the case on three or four occasions over the last three days.

Emil Ruusuvuori failing to serving out the match, Carlos Alcaraz missing a Match Point at 6-4, 5-3 in his win over Tommy Paul and then Petra Kvitova failing to earn the cover by a single game. That was mainly down to the failure to break at the end of the first set, which would have swung the way the numbers around in the final game margin, but it is what it is and you have to expect the rough with the smooth.

On Friday it is Semi Final day after the rain delays of the last two days, and my sole selection comes from the first of the three matches scheduled for the day.

Daniil Medvedev - 4.5 games v Karen Khachanov: Both of these players have produced some quality hard court tennis already in 2023, although the consistency is with Daniil Medvedev as he looks to reach another Final.

Losing in the fashion he did in Indian Wells would have hurt, but Daniil Medvedev has not allowed that to dent his confidence and he is only seven hard court wins short of the number of wins he earned through the entirety of 2022. That certainly shows a player on the right road back after a relatively underwhelming last year and Medvedev has beaten plenty of the top names already this season.

In saying that, Daniil Medvedev has not been tested at the Miami Masters and none of the three wins produced have been against an opponent Ranked inside the top 79. That is going to change significantly on Friday, and Medvedev will facing an opponent who is one win away from heading back into the top 10 of the World Rankings.

Winning the Miami Masters would likely see Karen Khachanov reach a new career best World Ranking mark so there is plenty of motivation for a player who has really impressed in the tournament. Unlike his Semi Final opponent, Karen Khachanov has beaten two players that would be Seeded in Grand Slam events and he has only dropped one set in his four wins.

The serve is likely going to be very important for Khachanov, but he will be well aware that he has not really been able to impose this shot on Daniil Medvedev in recent matches. One of those was back in 2019, but the higher Ranked player beat Karen Khachanov pretty comfortably in Adelaide in January and it is Daniil Medvedev who has had the better of the return.

There is no doubt that this a very wide margin, especially if Karen Khachanov is able to serve as well as he has in the Miami Masters, but I do think Daniil Medvedev is the best returner he has faced so far this week.

Daniil Medvedev looks to hold a significant edge on the return of serve and that can help him to a good, strong win in this one.

MY PICK: Daniil Medvedev - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Miami Update: 26-27, - 10.18 Units (108 Units Staked, - 9.43% Yield)

Miami Masters Tennis Picks 2023 (March 30th)

This is going to be a pretty short thread and that is because I do not have any selections from the matches scheduled to be played on Thursday at the Miami Masters.

The Quarter Final Pick from Petra Kvitova vs Ekaterina Alexandrova has been held over from Wednesday as poor weather hit South Florida and that is scheduled to be played, but the three ATP Quarter Final matches and the one WTA Semi Final match look difficult to call.

A few thoughts below.

The WTA Semi Final between Elena Rybakina and Jessica Pegula looks incredibly close to call and the layers have it spot on with the former as a narrow favourite. I do think Pegula could earn the upset having beaten Rybakina twice before, but the latest win was in a third set tie-breaker that could have easily gone the other way and I am finding it very hard to be certain one way or the other.

Daniil Medvedev and Karen Khachanov should both win their Quarter Final matches, but the former is being asked to cover a very big spread against an opponent who has a serve that could be difficult to break. To ask Medvedev to break at least three times might be too much, while Karen Khachanov has a tough opponent in front of him who is playing some strong hard court tennis in Miami.

Once again, the spread looks right on the money.

The Carlos Alcaraz vs Taylor Fritz match has been carried over from Wednesday and I was not convinced by any selection then and that remains the case.

Hopefully there will be a Pick or two to be made from the three matches that will be scheduled for Friday, but we will see.

MY PICKS: Petra Kvitova - 2.5 Games (Advised Wednesday)

Miami Update: 26-26, - 8.18 Units (106 Units Staked, - 7.72% Yield)

Miami Masters Tennis Picks 2023 (March 29th)

It looked like being a strong bounce back day for the Tennis Picks, but frustratingly it was not to be.

Once again it came down to the fine margins, so I am not too disappointed with the selection method, but the fortune has been missing in this Miami Masters Tournament. You always need a bit of luck to get over the line, but I could not have come much closer on a few occasions through this tournament with the majority of those going the wrong way.

It happens in a long season, and the fact that the Picks have come so close to having another really good week keeps me confident in the manner in which they are being selected. Obviously winners would be the best way to keep the confidence in a good place!

Petra Kvitova - 2.5 games v Ekaterina Alexandrova: A low key opening to the season Down Under was followed by some poor results in Linz, Doha and Indian Wells and so there wouldn't have been a lot of expectation around Ekaterina Alexandrova at the beginning of the Miami Masters. Despite the underwhelming results, Alexandrova reached a new career high World Ranking just last month and the confidence has clearly not been lost through a poor run of form as the World Number 18 has made it through to the Quarter Final.

A really bad injury looks to have been suffered by Bianca Andreescu in the Fourth Round otherwise it might have been the Canadian and not Ekaterina Alexandrova lining up for this match. However, all credit has to be given to Alexandrova for the performance in the win over Belinda Bencic in the Third Round and she has proven to be a pretty steady hard court player over the last twelve months.

I would expect Ekaterina Alexandrova to have to be better than 'steady' if she is going to beat Petra Kvitova considering the start made to the 2023 season by the now veteran of the Tour. Last year was not the best for Kvitova on the hard courts, but she has looked much stronger in 2023 and you could make an argument that Petra Kvitova has beaten all of the players she should have and lost to those she probably should lose to at this stage of her career.

It is quite amazing to think of Petra Kvitova as a veteran, but she is 33 years old now and she holds a 6-4 record when facing top 20 Ranked opponents on the hard courts over the last twelve months. The numbers are pretty average in that time, especially on the return of serve, and she has to respect how well Ekaterina Alexandrova can play when at her best.

Finding her best consistently has been the problem, but you have to imagine Alexandrova is feeling about as good about her tennis as she can now she has reached the Quarter Final in Miami.

Petra Kvitova has also never been beyond the Quarter Final in Miami and things have changed for both players since the former crushed Ekaterina Alexandrova at the Australian Open in 2020.

I still think the Czech lefty might have a slight edge, but this should be a lot more competitive than their sole previous match was.

Ekaterina Alexandrova will have to serve well, but she is capable, although I do think the overall performances of the players this season gives Petra Kvitova the edge at the key moments in this match. Even in this tournament, Petra Kvitova has played well enough at the right times to progress to another Quarter Final and I think she will play the big points with enough authority to finally make the Semi Final at this Masters event.

MY PICKS: Petra Kvitova - 2.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Miami Update: 26-26, - 8.18 Units (106 Units Staked, - 7.72% Yield)

Miami Masters Tennis Picks 2023 (March 28th)

It was a tough day for the Tennis Picks and ended with a 2-3 record, but there is still some time left at the Miami Masters to turn things back in our favour.

The WTA Fourth Round matches were concluded on Monday and it is the turn of the ATP tournament to have their entire Fourth Round played on Tuesday. We also have a couple of the WTA Quarter Final matches scheduled to be played and the expectation is that the entire schedule will be completed, despite the chance of some rain later in the evening in South Florida.

Now we have gotten into the later stages of the Miami Masters, there are some top matches scheduled to be played and you can read my thoughts for the day below.

Carlos Alcaraz - 4.5 games v Tommy Paul: Novak Djokovic is likely going to have something to say about this over the next several months, but there isn't a player performing at a higher level than Carlos Alcaraz playing in Miami at this Masters tournament. Daniil Medvedev might have had a case to make, but he was dismissed by the World Number 1 in the Indian Wells Final and Carlos Alcaraz is a favourite to complete the Sunshine Double having dominated in his two wins in this event.

He hasn't only been feasting on the kind of draw a Number 1 Seed can earn, but Carlos Alcaraz has wins over the likes of Cameron Norrie, Jannik Sinner and Medvedev and is a significant favourite against Tommy Paul in this Fourth Round match.

The American deserves a lot of credit for the kind of improvements he has made in his tennis over the last eighteen months and Tommy Paul is going to be back at his career best World Ranking of Number 18 regardless of the result on Tuesday. He could move much further up the World Rankings by going on and winning the Miami Masters, but over the last twelve months we have seen Tommy Paul struggle to compete with the top 10 players on the Tour, even on his favourite hard court surface.

In saying that, Tommy Paul did beat Carlos Alcaraz at the Canadian Masters last summer, although he had to save a lot of Break Points on the day. You have to think it would not take a lot to change the outcome of that match for the World Number 1, and the numbers produced in the last two hard court tournaments are extremely strong.

A strong serve should keep Tommy Paul at bay, but Carlos Alcaraz is also breaking in 36% of return games played and I do think he will put Paul under pressure.

In the eight matches played against top ten Ranked opponents on the hard courts over the last twelve months, Tommy Paul has actually won fewer than 60% of service points played and I expect he will need to fend off plenty of Break Points in this match against Carlos Alcaraz. He may even be able to do that, but the pressure could be telling and Alcaraz looks like a player keen to hold onto the Number 1 Ranking before the start of the clay court season, one in which he will feel amongst the favourites to win the French Open.

Carlos Alcaraz can earn the revenge for the sole loss to Tommy Paul at this event and I think he is playing at an extremely high level that can see him break down the opponent.

Jannik Sinner - 2.5 games v Andrey Rublev: I have a lot of time for Andrey Rublev, who seems a genuinely good person, but he will need to give himself time to really appreciate how good a tennis player he is. I say that in light of the recent viral video which saw him talking up Carlos Alcaraz having watched him hitting in training, while also downplaying his own ability and that may have contributed to the tough results Rublev has had against the better players on the Tour.

In Tennis, like many sports, you need to have belief in yourself before you can really produce your best.

I think Andrey Rublev knows he is a good player, but he certainly feels there are better players out there and that can produce a mental hurdle that is difficult to overcome in the most pressurised of spots.

Over the last twelve months, Andrey Rublev has a 5-8 record against top 20 Ranked players on the hard courts, and his numbers drop significantly on the serve and return in those matches compared with his overall totals. He is clearly a capable player, but Rublev perhaps does not see himself in the same way as those around him in the Rankings and that has contributed to the big drop in level.

He is facing a tough opponent in Jannik Sinner in this big Fourth Round match, but the Italian has also struggled to a 2-6 record against top 20 Ranked players on the hard courts over the last twelve months. However, Jannik Sinner has been unfortunate in a couple of very close matches that could have easily gone his way and that is backed up by the numbers.

Jannik Sinner needs to get a little more out of his serve when it comes to playing the better players on the Tour, but we have seen signs of that in 2023. In five matches against top 20 Ranked players on this surface this calendar year, Sinner has won 65% of his service points played and he has stronger numbers on the serve and return compared with Andrey Rublev.

They have met four times on the Tour, but Rublev's two wins have come in matches that have not been finished as Jannik Sinner has been forced to 'retire'. The other two have resulted in Sinner wins, but this is the first time they will have had a proper match on the hard courts (just three games played when they faced off in Vienna in October 2020).

While I am anticipating a close match, I do think Jannik Sinner has been the stronger player to open 2023 and has had a bit more success when facing the stronger players compared with Andrey Rublev. I am expecting Sinner to get a bit more out of the return of serve and that could be key to the outcome of this Fourth Round match and I will look for him to progress.

MY PICKS: Carlos Alcaraz - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Jannik Sinner - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Taylor Fritz - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Emil Ruusuvuori - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Stefanos Tsitsipas @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Miami Update: 24-23, - 5.44 Units (96 Units Staked, - 5.67% Yield)

Miami Masters Tennis Picks 2023 (March 27th)

The first week of the Miami Masters is in the books and we are into the business end of the tournament with the WTA Fourth Round matches scheduled to be played on Monday as well as the conclusion of the ATP Third Round.

Most of the top names are still involved in the tournament, which should lead to an uptick in the quality of the tennis being produced and it is a big week for those who don't have the same love for the clay courts as they do for other surfaces on the Tour.

The early hard court season is concluded in the next few days, but there is no real let up on the gruelling Tour with a big clay court event in Charleston scheduled for the WTA players next week.

There are three ATP events being played before the first Masters on the red dirt in Monte Carlo and the run will begin towards the French Open with important stops in Stuttgart, Barcelona, Madrid and Rome to come.

After a pretty poor first four days at the Miami Masters, the Tennis Picks made it three winning days in a row on Sunday, although there is still work to do to bring home a profitable tournament.

I will be hoping to inch further towards the black from the Monday selections and then look for the momentum to kick on through the rest of the week to get back into the positive numbers.

Elena Rybakina - 4.5 games v Elise Mertens: There is no doubt that this would feel like a very big handicap mark if we were talking of the Elise Mertens of three or four years ago, but the 27 year old is arguably better known for her Doubles successes these days.

She has won three Grand Slam titles as a Doubles player, but Mertens has not really come that close to matching the run to the Australian Open Semi Final as a Singles player like she did in 2018.

Elise Mertens is still a top 40 Ranked player and that deserves respect, but she has found it tough to compete with the top 20 and her record in those matches over the last two and a half seasons is pretty poor, especially when it comes to hard court matches. The Belgian has lost ten of her last twelve matches on the hard courts against those higher Ranked opponents and the biggest concern for Elise Mertens is that she has won just a single set across those ten losses.

In eight of those ten defeats, Elise Mertens would not have got within this number of games set for the handicap and I do think she will struggle to deal with Elena Rybakina who is looking to complete a 'Sunshine Double'.

I won't ignore the two tough matches that Rybakina has played in Miami and you do have to wonder if some accumulated fatigue is catching up with her, but the big hitting player will likely be able to earn a few more cheaper points in the match. That is key as Elena Rybakina continues to close on the top two in the World Rankings and I do think she has been returning at a consistent level that should be enough to take this Fourth Round match away from her opponent.

Elena Rybakina is not really a player who will cover this kind of line very often, even as she has grown into one of the best players on the Tour and that is perhaps down to her overall level on the return. One break is usually enough to win a set, especially as far as she is concerned, but I do think Rybakina will have chances against the Elise Mertens serve and can do just enough to win this match by a five game margin.

Petra Kvitova - 3.5 games v Varvara Gracheva: If reports are to be believed, Varvara Gracheva will soon be representing France instead of Russia on the Tour, but the young player is not allowing off court decisions to affect her performances.

She reached the Final in Austin last month and has backed that up by not only Qualifying for both Indian Wells and Miami, but also reaching the Fourth Round at both events. Her tournament was ended in the Fourth Round in Indian Wells by Elena Rybakina and another former Grand Slam Champion stands in front of Varvara Graceva in Miami.

A thumb issue was bothering Petra Kvitova in Indian Wells, but she was playing well there and has backed that up in Miami. The lefty has had a bounce back year on the hard courts, at least up until now, and Petra Kvitova has been dominant when facing those opponents Ranked outside the top 20 in the World Rankings.

Her numbers have backed that up and the return improvement is likely going to be key to determining the outcome of this Fourth Round match.

A win for Varvara Gracheva would see her crack the top 40 in the World Rankings and she is going to be rewarded with a career best World Ranking regardless of the outcome of this match. However, there are still some improvements to be made when facing top 50 Ranked opponents on the hard courts and I do think Gracheva has benefited from the draw to reach the Fourth Round this week.

Beating Ons Jabeur deserves more respect perhaps, but Jabeur is not in the best of form and I think Petra Kvitova will have too much on the serve for her younger opponent. That should lead to the chances to pull clear of this handicap mark, as Kvitova has proven to be the case when facing those players outside of the top 20 this season.

MY PICKS: Elena Rybakina - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Petra Kvitova - 3.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)

Jessica Pegula - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Marketa Vondrousova - 3.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Frances Tiafoe - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Miami Update: 22-20, - 2.32 Units (86 Units Staked, - 2.69% Yield)

Miami Masters Tennis Picks 2023 (March 26th)

While not quite being the same bounce back as Friday, it was still a positive day for the Tennis Picks on Saturday as I continue to climb out of the early hole for the selections.

Now we are into the Third Round matches in both the ATP and WTA events being played in Miami and that means the matches should increase in quality even further from some of the good matches that have already been produced.

Hopefully I can make it three straight winning days with the selections below.

Time should be on my side for the remainder of the tournament and I will write out a few reasonings behind some of the Picks from Monday through to the Finals next week.

MY PICKS: Tommy Paul - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Andrey Rublev - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Emil Ruusuvuori - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Karolina Pliskova @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Karolina Muchova - 3.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Aryna Sabalenka - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Miami Update: 18-18, - 4.94 Units (74 Units Staked, - 6.68% Yield)

Miami Masters Tennis Picks 2023 (March 25th)

I was pretty firm in my post for the Friday Tennis Picks that I would be expecting a much better day than the really poor showing on Thursday and sticking to the process which has helped the 2023 season get off to a strong start worked out for the best.

Twelve selections, eight winners is pretty good and I did earn a bit of fortune with a player securing a cover with a break at the end of her match, although that was also after missing two Match Points which reminded me of what had happened the day before.

As the tournament progresses, we have Third Round WTA action and Second Round ATP action on Saturday and you can see my Picks below.

From Monday I should be able to write down a few thoughts on a couple of the Picks being made to fatten up the posts, but the early starts in Miami without the usual five hour gap between the East Coast and London has made that more difficult over the last week. At least in Indian Wells we still had a seven hour time difference to offer up more time to write out some of the reasonings behind the selections being made, but that should change soon.

MY PICKS: Lorenzo Sonego - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Frances Tiafoe - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Karen Khachanov - 3.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Jelena Ostapenko - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Victoria Azarenka - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Elise Mertens - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Elena Rybakina - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Miami Update: 14-15, - 5.86 Units (60 Units Staked, - 9.77% Yield)

Boxing Picks 2023- David Benavidez vs Caleb Plant (March 25th)

After the back and forth, both on social media and behind the scenes, it is almost certain that the Undisputed Heavyweight Fight between Tyson Fury and Oleksandr Usyk is officially OFF.

We may be Boxing fans, but the sport really does not help itself at times and what felt like a pretty simple discussion to be had is once again going to see the fans miss out.

Ever since Usyk won the rematch against Anthony Joshua, the fight with Tyson Fury looked very easy to make- they have virtually been discussing terms since back in August and things only took a turn for the worse when it became clear that the big site fee was not going to be coming from the Middle East.

Even then we have seen compromises made, but this looks like a fight to set alongside Errol Spence Jr vs Terence Crawford as one that should have happened, but will not.

Oleksandr Usyk will now go and fulfil some mandatories and the biggest fight that he could potentially make going forward looks to be either against former WBC Champion Deontay Wilder or Joe Joyce, the Interim WBO Champion. A third fight with Anthony Joshua would only make sense if the British fighter returns with three or four big wins beginning with his return on April 1st, but that third fight would be at least eighteen months away and there is no telling what direction Matchroom will take when it comes to Joshua.

As for Tyson Fury, the fight with Anthony Joshua makes a lot of sense and a voluntary defence against Joe Joyce should do decent numbers, but I am not sure the latter fight will produce the kind of monetary return that Fury may want.

And so it is perhaps unsurprising that Frank Warren hinted that Fury could potentially retire again, this time by officially relinquishing the WBC World Title.

I really don't know what will happen, but we could get some clarity over the next month.

In that time both Anthony Joshua and Joe Joyce will have completed their next fights scheduled and the mandatory calls for Oleksandr Usyk could be answered.

It looks like Daniel Dubois will be next for Usyk, although there is every chance that his three World Titles are fractured by the end of the year. Any hopes of a four belt Heavyweight Champion will also have been fractured for now, although there is a pathway that could hopefully open up an Undisputed Champion fight in around eighteen to twenty-four months from now.

Here's hoping negotiations will be more fruitful when/if that time comes around as the Division continues to wait for a first Undisputed Champion since Lennox Lewis.

Fights that are not going to happen, or not happen any time soon, are not really my concern as disappointed as I may be.

There may not be any World Titles on the line in Las Vegas on Saturday, but make no mistake that this is a massive Super Middleweight showdown and a genuinely good fight taking place.

Other cards will feature a World Title being defended at Cruiserweight and there is also a return bout for a former World Champion looking to climb back up the mountain.

After a disappointing opening two months for the Boxing Picks, a strong showing a couple of weeks ago have just turned things back around. I still want to improve the 'strike rate', but moving back into a positive number for the year is something to be happy with as I look to back up the strong returns of 2022.

David Benavidez vs Caleb Plant

All of the Super Middleweight full World Titles are held by Canelo Alvarez, but this genuinely feels like a fight that features the next two in terms of the top 168 pounders in the world.

David Benavidez is hoping to secure a shot at the Undisputed Champion with a win over Caleb Plant, a former World Champion who was beaten by Canelo and looking to move into a position to have a rematch.

The winning fighter is likely going to have to wait for any crack at Alvarez, who is likely going into a rematch with Dmitry Bivol if he can beat his mandatory challenger John Ryder in early May. Some may feel that Canelo Alvarez could soon choose to drop some of his World Titles held and that is where the winner of this one could become a full World Champion and try and force Canelo Alvarez into the ring.

Neither can afford to think too far ahead in this one and there looks to be a real life needle between Benavidez and Plant, which only increases the anticipation around this huge fight.

David Benavidez has held the full World Title before, but he has twice lost his belt outside of the ring, which is a real disappointment. However, he remains unbeaten and has worn down twenty-three opponents from the 26-0 record held.

Caleb Plant has linked up with Stephen Edwards as his new trainer following the loss to Canelo and he did produce a memorable KO of Anthony Dirrell in his sole fight in 2022. A former World Champion, Plant will feel he has all of the skills to work through the pressure that Benavidez is going to bring for much of the night, while he has more power than his thirteen Stoppages from twenty-two wins suggests.

Knocking out David Benavidez is going to be some challenge and keeping this pressure fighter away will be tough. Linking up with Edwards as the trainer does mean Caleb Plant should know what to expect as Stephen Edwards trained Kyrone Davis who had a decent showing against the unbeaten Benavidez, even in a losing effort.

This time Stephen Edwards has a fighter who would have had a full camp preparing for David Benavidez, and one who matches up size wise rather than Davis who was coming up in weight. An intelligent trainer, Edwards will be looking for Caleb Plant to set up traps for Benavidez, but much is going to depend on how much punishment Plant is willing to take.

He will have to take some, even if the quick feet and defensive movement should help Plant.

I like Caleb Plant and I think he may be the superior pure Boxer of the two.

However, I do think David Benavidez is the fighter with momentum and he has shown that he can grind down and break down opponents. I know he is talking up his chances of breaking Caleb Plant relatively early, but this will take time and Plant is effective enough to make Benavidez have to reset early before perhaps slowing down in the second half of this one and allowing his unbeaten rival to take control.

David Benavidez is going to make Caleb Plant work hard all night and that will likely see him just slow for long enough to be cornered and stopped.

Canelo Alvarez hits hard and managed to do that against Plant in their Undisputed Super Middleweight clash, and I just feel that David Benavidez may pack a bit more. That is something I think will be telling in the second half of the contest and the younger, unbeaten Interim Champion can force the stoppage of Sweet Hands.

The United Kingdom Light Heavyweight Division looks to be thriving, even if we have yet to see one of those fighters break through and win a World Title. That is perhaps not a massive surprise with Dmitry Bivol and Artur Beterbiev at the top of the mountain, but there are still some huge fights between the likes of Anthony Yarde, Joshua Buatsi, Callum Smith and Dan Azeez that can be put together over the next twelve months.

I think we will see some of those and you can perhaps add Lyndon Arthur to the mix who will be fighting on Friday night in an IBO World Title bout (this is an important fight for momentum, but the actual belt on the line is not going to be one that the other Champions will be hoping to hold).

Since his Fourth Round loss to Anthony Yarde in the big rematch following an upset win, Lyndon Arthur has been rebuilding with a couple of stoppage wins. He will be looking for a third of those when facing Braian Nahuel Suarez, an Argentinian with a solid looking 18-1 record, but one who has never fought outside his own country.

Lyndon Arthur is unlikely to need to find his opponent and I do think Suarez has been brought over to make the Manchester man look good as he continues his rebuild.

In his sole loss, Braian Nahuel Suarez was blitzed inside the First Round- this one may go a little longer, but Lyndon Arthur can secure the victory inside the first half of the fight before calling out Dan Azeez for a big domestic showdown.

[UPDATE]  After his original opponent had to be withdrawn, Lyndon Arthur will now take on Boris Crighton in a non-title main event on Friday evening.

Facing a new opponent is far from ideal for Arthur, but I still think he will have too much for Boris Crighton. The latter may have been training, but he is going up two or three levels compared to his usual and I think this will quickly feel like a survival job for the step in.

Lyndon Arthur has to show that he is ready to compete with some of the top domestic Light Heavyweights around and he can get this done inside the first Five Rounds of a scheduled Ten.

On Saturday evening we have a couple of cards taking place in the United Kingdom, while there is also a decent card taking place in the United States away from the big card headlined by Caleb Plant and David Benavidez.

I think Michael Gomez Jr is worth a small interest to edge Levi Giles on the cards in their Ten Round bout for the vacant English Title. This is a big opportunity for both fighters who have a single loss between them, but I think the taller home fighter may do enough to earn the edge, although there is a chance there will be some controversy attached.

Frazer Clarke should win his Heavyweight fight pretty early on the undercard and he could soon be joined in the Division by headliner Lawrence Okolie who will be making a long awaited return to the ring.

A much publicised falling out with Eddie Hearn has been making the headlines, and that will also have put some pressure on The Sauce to respond with a big performance in the ring. He is still an unbeaten Cruiserweight World Champion and there is some unfinished business in the Division before moving up to Heavyweight, but Lawrence Okolie will have to shake off some of the ring rust that will come with a thirteen month lay off.

David Light has to be respected as the unbeaten mandatory contender, but I am not sure the New Zealander has fought anyone of this level and Lawrence Okolie will likely have early success.

The Champion has sometimes been criticised for not entertaining the fans, but I think Light will be there to fight and that should help Lawrence Okolie who can score a good, solid first half Stoppage before calling out domestic rivals and other World Champions for Unifications.

Both of the above fights are on the Manchester card, but Andrew Cain will be back in action in Telford on a Queensbury promotion.

The unbeaten fighter takes on Ionut Baluta who is another step up for Cain in his development in the professional ranks.

Ionut Baluta is going to be confident and he is used to fighting in the United Kingdom and I do think he challenges Andrew Cain. He has not been Stopped before despite being in with the likes of Michael Conlan, Brad Foster and Liam Davies and I think Baluta can show enough toughness to get to the cards, although I would expect Andrew Cain to come away with his hand raised.

We will learn plenty about Cain who has yet to go beyond the Sixth Round as a pro, but I think he will pass this test even if he has to take the Decision on the cards.

Jose Carlos Ramirez came awfully close to winning the Undisputed Light Welterweight Title in a loss to Josh Taylor and this is only the second fight he has had in the two years since that loss to the British fighter.

He remains amongst the best fighters in the Division, but Ramirez needs to be more active as he returns as a big favourite against Richard Commey.

The latter was a surprise World Champion at Lightweight, but he was blitzed by Teofimo Lopez and Richard Commey has now won one of his last four fights. He took a pretty bad beating from Vasyl Lomachenko, who urged Commey's corner to pull their fighter before seemingly taking his foot off the gas and I do think the veteran has seen his best days.

Of course you have to expect Jose Carlos Ramirez to have to shake off some ring rust, but he is the naturally bigger man and I don't think he will be as likely to come off the boil if he does have Richard Commey hurt.

As he has moved into the elite level of World Boxing, the Stoppages have unsurprisingly slowed down, but Jose Carlos Ramirez can break down Richard Commey in this one and secure a solid looking victory in the second half of this one.

MY PICKS: David Benavidez to Win Between 7-12 @ 2.60 Coral (2 Units)

Lyndon Arthur to Win Between 1-5 @ 2.37 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Michael Gomez Jr to Win by Decision/Technical Decision @ 3.25 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Lawrence Okolie to Win Between 1-6 @ 2.50 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Andrew Cain to Win by Decision/Technical Decision @ 4.33 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Jose Carlos Ramirez to Win Between 7-12 @ 5.50 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Boxing 2023: 7-10, + 0.76 Units (32 Units Staked, + 2.38% Yield)

Miami Masters Tennis Picks 2023 (March 24th)

That was the worst day I've probably had in 2023 as far as the Tennis Picks are concerned.

I can't help but be a touch frustrated too- all three WTA selections lost, but two of the players actually got to Match Point at a time when it would have been enough to secure the cover of the spread. Instead they both missed out and that was only a part of the poor day at the office.

A second ATP retirement on the brink of a winning selection didn't help, while I have to be disappointed with one of my borderline picks that perhaps should never have been made.

Adjustments have been key to the successful start to 2023, but I will make the selections from Friday expecting much better results compared with Thursday's efforts. If not, it might be a time to just sit back and take some time over the weekend to have a look at where I might be going wrong, but that will be something I decide after the schedule for the day is completed.

I will have a post up on Saturday regardless of my decision for the weekend Tennis Picks, but below you will be able to see the Friday selections as the Second Round continues for those in the WTA Tournament. Some of the bigger names on the ATP Tour are also in action for the first time in Miami this week as the Second Round of that tournament begins and that means another very busy day at the event.

MY PICKS: Andrey Rublev - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Jannik Sinner - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Holger Rune - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Alexander Zverev - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Maria Sakkari - 1.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Karolina Pliskova - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Karolina Muchova - 5.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Barbora Krejcikova - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Petra Kvitova - 2.5 Games @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Donna Vekic - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Belinda Bencic - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Miami Update: 6-11, - 11.86 Units (36 Units Staked, - 32.94% Yield)

Miami Masters Tennis Picks 2023 (March 23rd)

In a few days time we will be back to the usual five hour time difference between the East Coast of the United States and here in London, but for now the one hour earlier start at the Miami Masters is one that is making it very difficult to write out a fuller thread. Friday will be the same, but I am hoping from Saturday I will be able to write out a few thoughts for the selections being made with the tournament moving into the Third Round and there simply not being as many matches to research.

Wednesday was a more fruitful day than the opening one at the Miami Masters as far as the Tennis Picks go, but it was not as strong as I would have liked.

Still, I cannot complain when returning a positive number and that is hopefully the start of a strong tournament for the selections as the Miami Masters continues over the next couple of weeks.

MY PICKS: Danielle Collins - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Coco Gauff - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Jelena Ostapenko - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Cristian Garin @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Jordan Thompson - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Roberto Carballas Baena @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)

Yosuke Watanuki - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Jason Kubler - 3.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Thanasi Kokkinakis - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Miami Update: 4-5, - 3.06 Units (18 Units Staked, - 17% Yield)

Miami Masters Tennis Picks 2023 (March 22nd)

It was not a good start to the new week, but I think there was some misfortune with one of the two selections made on Tuesday at the Miami Masters.

After moving into commanding positions in each of the three sets played, Camila Giorgi found a way to give up her advantages and ultimately needed three tie-breakers in her victory.

That is disappointing, but it is only the start of the week.

The extremely early start times in the early part of the draw has made it a tad difficult to write out any analysis of the selections through the first two days, but hopefully I will find more time as the Miami Masters progresses into the Second Round and beyond.

MY PICKS: JJ Wolf - 1.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)

Marton Fucsovics - 4.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)

Andy Murray - 4.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Alexei Popyrin @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Ugo Humbert - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Ashlyn Krueger - 0.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Marketa Vondrousova - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Xinyu Wang @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Miami Update: 0-2, - 4 Units (4 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)

Miami Masters Tennis Picks 2023 (March 21st)

The first of the Sunshine Doubles is in the books with Carlos Alcaraz and Elena Rybakina winning the Indian Wells titles on Sunday, but there is no rest for the top players on both Tours as the Miami Masters is set to get into main draw action.

Once again the top Seeds will Receive a Bye into the Second Round, which means they do have a few days of rest between the two Masters tournaments.

Soon the attention will be moving from the hard courts to the clay courts as the run to the French Open begins from early April, but for now this is a big opportunity for those players that enjoy the hard courts to pick up some more vital World Rankings. Novak Djokovic is going to be missing from the ATP Masters event in Miami as he did in Indian Wells, but the status for entry is set to change in the United States and that should mean the current World Number 2 is able to travel for the big Masters events played before the US Open later in the year.

It does mean Carlos Alcaraz and Daniil Medvedev will once again be the leading contenders to win the title, while the WTA Tour might finally have seen a couple of contenders head to the fore to challenge Iga Swiatek. The reality is that both Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina will be a threat in three of the four Grand Slams that are played on the Tour, but both will have something to prove when it comes to the clay courts on which the World Number 1 is a clear favourite to win the next Slam to be played.

The tournament schedule will have a more familiar feel than the Indian Wells one as we prepare for another couple of weeks of Masters Tennis.

A productive tournament was produced for the Tennis Picks thanks to Carlos Alcaraz beating Daniil Medvedev in the ATP Final at Indian Wells and I am looking for further progress at the Miami Masters. The updated seasonal and monthly totals can be seen below as I look for a strong opening to the Miami Tennis Picks to keep the momentum going into the clay court season.

The Tennis Tour is a long one and so you have to expect some peaks and troughs when the inches go against the selections, but I am happy with my adjustments that have produced a good set of results over the first two and a half months of the 2023 season.

I will have longer threads for days at the event as the tournament progresses, but for Tuesday you can see my selections below.

MY PICKS: Yulia Putintseva - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Camila Giorgi - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Tennis 2023: + 24.39 Units (243 Units Staked, + 10.04% Yield)

March 2023: + 10.45 Units (79 Units Staked, + 13.23% Yield)

February 2023: + 0.26 Units (18 Units Staked, + 1.44% Yield)

January 2023: + 13.68 Units (146 Units Staked, + 9.37% Yield)

Indian Wells Tennis Picks 2023 (March 19th)

Most of the ATP and WTA Tour participants would have made the journey across the United States from Indian Wells to Miami as the next Masters event on the calendar begins on Tuesday with the WTA First Round, but four players remain in California.

Both Indian Wells Finals are to be played on Sunday and both look like they could produce a lot of fun tennis for those attending.

I was a touch disappointed with the 1-1 return for the Tennis Picks on Saturday, although it was perhaps a fair reflection of the performances of those selections.

Daniil Medvedev could have easily covered the big line against Frances Tiafoe having missed a number of Break Points to move into a position to do that, although Carlos Alcaraz did have to fight through a very tough match against Jannik Sinner, which could have gone the other way.

It has still been a very strong tournament for the Tennis Picks and finishing off the right way on Sunday is all that I am thinking about now.

Aryna Sabalenka - 2.5 games v Elena Rybakina: A rematch of the Australian Open Final will take place on the hard courts of Indian Wells when the WTA Final is played and you could make a case for Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina to be two of the best three players in the world.

Not many are in stronger form than the reigning Australian Open Champion and Elena Rybakina would be a top four Ranked player if she had received the Ranking points from winning Wimbledon last year. I think both will feel they can have a massive impact at Wimbledon in July, assuming Sabalenka will be allowed to compete this year, and these head to head matches throughout the year on the Tour can provide a mental edge if they are to come up against one another in those big Slam matches.

At the moment Aryna Sabalena has the edge over Elena Rybakina and I think she will frank that with a win in this Final.

Both are big hitters who want to get on the front foot, while the serve is a potent weapon for the two players.

I am not surprised that so many of their previous matches have needed a deciding set when you consider how important a single break of serve can be in matches between them.

Aryna Sabalenka has had the better of the returning numbers this week and that was the case in Melbourne back in January- I think that is likely to be the outcome of this one as Sabalenka closes in on the World Number 1 Ranking a little further.

Carlos Alcaraz v Daniil Medvedev: After eighteen months where Daniil Medvedev has not kicked on as far as it looked was possible, he is looking for a Masters title at Indian Wells which will have him back amongst the very top players on the ATP Tour.

Winning the title will not improve his World Ranking, but it will give Medvedev confidence to take into the next Masters event in Miami and maybe even for the clay court season if he can win on what he considers to be a slow surface.

The World Number 1 Ranking is on the line for Carlos Alcaraz and a win would take him back past Novak Djokovic- the Spaniard missed the Australian Open which was won by Djokovic, but the absence of the latter for these two American Masters events have opened the door for Carlos Alcaraz ahead of the clay court season when he may be considered the favourite alongside Novak Djokovic to win the next Grand Slam event at the French Open.

His return to the hard courts could not have gone much better and I do think the conditions will suit Carlos Alcaraz more than Daniil Medvedev. The numbers from the tournament have backed that up with Alcaraz getting a bit more out of his return as he looks to square up the professional match head to head with Daniil Medvedev at 1-1.

The highest Ranked player beaten by Medvedev at the Indian Wells tournament has been Alexander Zverev, the current World Number 14, but Carlos Alcaraz has seen off Felix Auger-Aliassime (World Number 10) and Jannik Sinner (World Number 13) and still produced the stronger numbers at the tournament.

Both are extremely confident hard court players, which has to be respected, but I think the conditions are more favourable to Carlos Alcaraz and he can find a way to come through as the favourite in the ATP Final.

MY PICKS: Aryna Sabalenka - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Carlos Alcaraz @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Indian Wells Update: 23-14, + 11.01 Units (75 Units Staked, + 14.68% Yield)

Indian Wells Tennis Picks 2023 (March 18th)

I'm annoyed.

No, not with the sole Semi Final Pick from the WTA Semi Finals on Friday.

Aryna Sabalenka won and won well as we get set for a repeat of the Australian Open Final when she meets Elena Rybakina.

What I am irritated about is the fact I had wrote a full post out for the two Tennis selections to be made from the ATP Semi Finals and somehow managed to delete it completely... Not delete the content, but the whole post.

Urghh.

Right, so that means I am going to place my selections below instead of a fuller post.

I do like both of the favourites to cover- short analysis is that I think Daniil Medevedev and Carlos Alcaraz are the superior return players in the match.

Frances Tiafoe has had a very strong tournament, but Medvedev impressed in the last Round and has had a pretty good time matching up with the American.

Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner should be a lot of fun, but the Spaniard has had the better of their hard court meetings and been the much stronger return player.

MY PICKS: Daniil Medvedev - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Carlos Alcaraz - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Indian Wells Update: 22-13, + 11.41 Units (71 Units Staked, + 16.07% Yield)

Indian Wells Tennis Picks 2023 (March 17th)

I have opted to miss out on making any Tennis Picks over the last two days and that is largely down to a narrowing of my criteria for selections this season.

After a disappointing 2022, and a pretty horrific day early at the US Open, those changes needed to be made and I think my adjustments had just fallen behind the layers having previously put together a number of successful seasons.

Being one step behind the odds compilers is a massive problem, but I do feel I may be in a better place now and the being tougher on the Picks has yielded a positive position early in this long season.

These are decisions that have to be made and I do think the open record makes it clear in black and white when it feels like things are not going as planned. Without that, you can end up in a terrible place in my opinion and it leads to maintaining the same approach over and over again and expecting results to change, which we all know is the definition of only one thing.

So the Indian Wells totals have remained in the same place as they were after the Fourth Round and we are down to the final three days at the tournament.

On Friday the WTA Semi Final matches are set to take centre stage before the two ATP Semi Finals on Saturday.

Aryna Sabalenka - 3.5 games v Maria Sakkari: After winning the first professional meeting between these players, Maria Sakkari was to lose four in a row against Aryna Sabalenka. The tables have turned with the last two matches both won by Sakkari at the WTA Finals in 2021 and 2022, but the Greek player is going to have to up her level significantly in this Indian Wells Semi Final to make it three in a row against one of the best players in the world.

The Maria Sakkari win over Aryna Sabalenka at the WTA Finals at the end of last season came with a dominant performance and that will have given her a lot of confidence, but things have changed for the World Number 2 in the time that has passed between that last match and this one.

Winning the Australian Open will have given Aryna Sabalenka a whole boatload of belief in her tennis and she has backed that up with five wins from six matches played. Losing in the Dubai Quarter Final will have stung, but Sabalenka has earned some revenge for the defeat to Barbora Krejcikova by seeing her off in this tournament where her numbers have been hugely impressive.

The first serve has proven to be a major weapon for the winner of the first Grand Slam of 2023 and the conditions in Indian Wells have just allowed Sabalenka to really tee off when it comes to the return.

The pressure will be on Maria Sakkari to try and up her first serve percentage which stands at 54% for the tournament- allowing Sabalenka to see too many second serves could be a problem for Sakkari who has won 39% of points played behind her second serve this week. It has been a problem for Maria Sakkari who has dropped serve fifteen times in four wins and the World Number 7 has spent a considerable amount of time longer on the court compared to her Semi Final opponent.

Maria Sakkari has to have confidence from winning the last two meetings with Aryna Sabalenka, but the latter looks to be in a different frame of mind these days.

I do think Sakkari will pose problems and has the game to frustrate the higher Ranked opponent, but Aryna Sabalenka has been serving a little better than Maria Sakkari this week and I think she will see a few more second serves to earn the breaks of serve to cover this line on the way to the first Masters Final of the 2023 season.

A few thoughts on the other Semi Final- Elena Rybakina has gotten the better of the World Number 1 Iga Swiatek in the two occasions they have met since the end of the last calendar year and that includes a pretty comfortable win at the Australian Open.

However, the conditions in Indian Wells are much slower and Swiatek has been in imperious form since the conclusion of the first Grand Slam of the 2023 season.

I think the World Number 1 has really enjoyed playing here and her numbers are very good, but covering this line against a server of the quality of Elena Rybakina will not be easy.

In saying that, I am not sure I could back Rybakina either having had a pretty good, but not a great week to reach the Semi Final.

MY PICKS: Aryna Sabalenka - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Indian Wells Update: 21-13, + 9.97 Units (69 Units Staked, + 14.45% Yield)

Indian Wells Tennis Picks 2023 (March 16th)

A solid day of Quarter Final tennis was completed on Wednesday and we have four more matches from that Round as we reach the business end of the tournament in Indian Wells.

It has been one of those days when I have not had the time to really put in a strong amount of research, and my narrow leans are not enough to really bite down and make a selection.

I did like Taylor Fritz as a potential underdog that can win outright, while Felix Auger-Aliassime has a strong head to head with Carlos Alcaraz and can keep that match tight, even in the slower conditions that likely favour the Spaniard.

However, I am keeping the power dry for another day and will be back on Friday to see if any of the WTA Semi Final matches are appealing after the layers reveal their market prices.

Indian Wells Update: 21-13, + 9.97 Units (69 Units Staked, + 14.45% Yield)

Indian Wells Tennis Picks 2023 (March 15th)

There are four good looking Quarter Final matches to be played on Wednesday at Indian Wells, but they will be all the better for simply viewing rather than making a selection from any of those from the day.

My reasonings are pretty simple and I will lay some of those down in this thread before updating the totals for the tournament after a 2-3 finish on Tuesday.

The Daniil Medvedev injury picked up in his win over Alexander Zverev will have had twenty-four hours to settle down and I just don't know what shape he will be in. He has a strong match up against Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, but Medvedev has not enjoyed this time in Indian Wells and may well feel he can rest his ankle for a week before he is likely to be scheduled for a match at the Miami Masters.

If he does go, injuries do have a funny way of clearing up and I think there is too much uncertainty to make a pick either way.

In the first ATP Quarter Final, I really like the way both Cameron Norrie and Frances Tiafoe are playing and it has all of the makings of a titanic struggle. My narrow lean is with the American and the start on the handicap, but Norrie's dominant win over Andrey Rublev has maintained the momentum behind his strong start to 2023 and this could be really close, as the handicap line suggests.

With the two WTA Quarter Finals, the first one between Coco Gauff and Aryna Sabalenka could be fascinating to watch when you think of the 2023 form both have had on the hard courts. I am not surprised that Sabalenka is the favourite, but Gauff has won three of the previous four matches against her and is playing at a very high level herself.

Once again, the line is one that is right where it should be and I can see the match going either way, although, again, I would lean with the American as a narrow underdog.

Finally we will get down to Maria Sakkari and Petra Kvitova- both have spent a lot of time on the court to win Fourth Round matches, but Sakkari may hold the mental edge and did crush Kvitova here last season. This feels like a match that should favour the Greek player, but the two plus hours spent on court in each of her three wins here could have built up enough fatigue for Kvitova to take advantage.

I will hopefully have selections rom the remaining Quarter Finals to be played on Thursday, but I will sit on my hands on Wednesday.

Indian Wells Update: 21-13, + 9.97 Units (69 Units Staked, + 14.45% Yield)

Indian Wells Tennis Picks 2023 (March 14th)

We are getting set for a very busy day at Indian Wells as the entire Fourth Round of both the ATP and WTA Masters events are set to be played on Tuesday.

That means some players are going to be playing on consecutive days and I am surprised by the way the tournament is being organised when you think the split of the Fourth Round would mean the Quarter Finals, Semi Finals and Finals could be played as you would have expected from Thursday through to Sunday.

Instead the Quarter Finals are split to be played on Wednesday and Thursday before the WTA Semi Finals get underway on Friday and the ATP Semi Finals are played on Saturday.

Both Finals will be played on the same day to round off the first Masters of the season, but it is what it is and the players have to cope.

The Tennis Picks returned a 3-1 record on Monday to get the earn another winning day, but there is still time for things to turn sour so this is the moment to remain focused and make sure the selections are researched as much as they can be.

It is a busy day and these are the days when things can go badly wrong if losing focus.

With the tournament now into the Fourth Round, there are some big matches scheduled to be played and you can read some of my thoughts below.

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - 3.5 games v Cristian Garin: He may have had a bit of fortune to get the better of Karen Khachanov in the last Round, but Alejandro Davidovich Fokina played well enough to recover from a second set collapse and take his place in the Fourth Round.

This will feel like an important tournament for the Spaniard as he looks to keep the Ranking points ticking over before what should be a more productive time of the season when the Tour moves onto the European clay courts in less than a month from now.

I do think Alejandro Davidovich Fokina can be a tough player to trust with his numbers not exactly the most impressive- even when considering matches against players Ranked outside the top 20, the Davidovich Fokina numbers are a little underwhelming on the hard courts and he is just 11-8 in the win-loss record in those matches over the last twelve months.

That does improve to 9-2 when looking at matches against players Ranked outside the top 50 and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina should be pretty comfortable with the match up against an opponent who will also appreciate the slower conditions.

Cristian Garin is far better than his World Number 97 Ranking would suggest as injuries have held him back, and he has to be respected having won a couple of Qualifiers before three main draw matches here in Indian Wells. The upset of Casper Ruud in the Third Round will only be a boost to the confidence as Garin has opened this section of the draw, although the Chilean had only been 1-7 against top 100 Ranked opponents on the hard courts over the last twelve months before adding three wins here.

Even including those wins, the Garin hard court numbers against the better players on the Tour are not that impressive and I think Alejandro Davidovich Fokina will have an edge on the return, which could pay dividends in these conditions and on this court.

The two previous matches between these opponents have been tight and competitive and I think every game will be a battle, but Alejandro Davidovich Fokina did have the better of the numbers in those previous matches. He lost the first on a clay court to Cristian Garin, but beat him on an indoor hard court at the end of 2021 and I think the Spaniard will be able to frank that form with his slightly superior returning numbers.

He is also getting a bit more out of the serve and I think that could see the higher Ranked player move through to the Quarter Final behind a good looking win.

Andrey Rublev - 2.5 games v Cameron Norrie: Two top 12 Ranked players meet in this big Fourth Round match in Indian Wells and I give the narrow edge to Andrey Rublev to work his way through to another hard court Quarter Final.

He did that at the Australian Open and reached the Final in a big event in Dubai, but Andrey Rublev would likely be the first to admit that his opening to 2023 has been largely underwhelming. The World Number 7 is slightly down on his 2022 serving and returning numbers and that small percentage can make a big difference in terms of results, although the signs are that Rublev is getting back to his best.

The layers make him a narrow favourite to beat Cameron Norrie who has surprisingly been playing in Golden Swing tournaments in South America rather than hard court events. It has not stopped the British Number 1 compiling a very impressive 20-3 record already in 2023, while Cameron Norrie has made a relatively seamless transition from the clay back onto the hard courts with two wins at Indian Wells.

It was a somewhat disappointing Australian Open for Cameron Norrie having reached the Final in Auckland in a warm up event, but he has grown into a very good hard court player in the last couple of years.

However, the left hander has to show he can put that quality tennis against the better players on the Tour and Cameron Norrie is just 5-5 in hard court matches against top 20 Ranked opponents over the last twelve months. That does improve to 4-3 when considering top 10 opponents, but the numbers don't lie and Norrie's return game takes a huge hit when facing those quality opponents.

Andrey Rublev also has had his problems against top 20 Ranked opponents on this surface over the last year, and has a losing record in those matches. However, his serve has been slightly more reliable, while the Russian wins a similar amount of return points as Cameron Norrie in those matches.

This could come down to which of these players serves the best on the day, but I do think a slight edge can be offered to the higher Ranked player who has a 2-1 record against Cameron Norrie, with all three previous matches being hard court matches. In those, Andrey Rublev has held 91% of service games played compared with Cameron Norrie's 73% mark and I do think Rublev will have the majority of chances in this one, even if the slower conditions could favour the Cam Norrie game a little more.

It should be another good match between these two elite players, but I do think Andrey Rublev can get the better of Cameron Norrie on the day as long as he continues to serve as he has in his first two matches at the tournament.

MY PICKS: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Andrey Rublev - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Frances Tiafoe - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)

Jannik Sinner - 4.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)

Caroline Garcia - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Indian Wells Update: 19-10, + 12.17 Units (59 Units Staked, + 20.63% Yield)