There isn't much you can do when the small margins go against you and that has been the case on three or four occasions over the last three days.
Emil Ruusuvuori failing to serving out the match, Carlos Alcaraz missing a Match Point at 6-4, 5-3 in his win over Tommy Paul and then Petra Kvitova failing to earn the cover by a single game. That was mainly down to the failure to break at the end of the first set, which would have swung the way the numbers around in the final game margin, but it is what it is and you have to expect the rough with the smooth.
On Friday it is Semi Final day after the rain delays of the last two days, and my sole selection comes from the first of the three matches scheduled for the day.
Daniil Medvedev - 4.5 games v Karen Khachanov: Both of these players have produced some quality hard court tennis already in 2023, although the consistency is with Daniil Medvedev as he looks to reach another Final.
Losing in the fashion he did in Indian Wells would have hurt, but Daniil Medvedev has not allowed that to dent his confidence and he is only seven hard court wins short of the number of wins he earned through the entirety of 2022. That certainly shows a player on the right road back after a relatively underwhelming last year and Medvedev has beaten plenty of the top names already this season.
In saying that, Daniil Medvedev has not been tested at the Miami Masters and none of the three wins produced have been against an opponent Ranked inside the top 79. That is going to change significantly on Friday, and Medvedev will facing an opponent who is one win away from heading back into the top 10 of the World Rankings.
Winning the Miami Masters would likely see Karen Khachanov reach a new career best World Ranking mark so there is plenty of motivation for a player who has really impressed in the tournament. Unlike his Semi Final opponent, Karen Khachanov has beaten two players that would be Seeded in Grand Slam events and he has only dropped one set in his four wins.
The serve is likely going to be very important for Khachanov, but he will be well aware that he has not really been able to impose this shot on Daniil Medvedev in recent matches. One of those was back in 2019, but the higher Ranked player beat Karen Khachanov pretty comfortably in Adelaide in January and it is Daniil Medvedev who has had the better of the return.
There is no doubt that this a very wide margin, especially if Karen Khachanov is able to serve as well as he has in the Miami Masters, but I do think Daniil Medvedev is the best returner he has faced so far this week.
Daniil Medvedev looks to hold a significant edge on the return of serve and that can help him to a good, strong win in this one.
MY PICK: Daniil Medvedev - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Miami Update: 26-27, - 10.18 Units (108 Units Staked, - 9.43% Yield)
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