Most of the top names are still involved in the tournament, which should lead to an uptick in the quality of the tennis being produced and it is a big week for those who don't have the same love for the clay courts as they do for other surfaces on the Tour.
The early hard court season is concluded in the next few days, but there is no real let up on the gruelling Tour with a big clay court event in Charleston scheduled for the WTA players next week.
There are three ATP events being played before the first Masters on the red dirt in Monte Carlo and the run will begin towards the French Open with important stops in Stuttgart, Barcelona, Madrid and Rome to come.
After a pretty poor first four days at the Miami Masters, the Tennis Picks made it three winning days in a row on Sunday, although there is still work to do to bring home a profitable tournament.
I will be hoping to inch further towards the black from the Monday selections and then look for the momentum to kick on through the rest of the week to get back into the positive numbers.
Elena Rybakina - 4.5 games v Elise Mertens: There is no doubt that this would feel like a very big handicap mark if we were talking of the Elise Mertens of three or four years ago, but the 27 year old is arguably better known for her Doubles successes these days.
She has won three Grand Slam titles as a Doubles player, but Mertens has not really come that close to matching the run to the Australian Open Semi Final as a Singles player like she did in 2018.
Elise Mertens is still a top 40 Ranked player and that deserves respect, but she has found it tough to compete with the top 20 and her record in those matches over the last two and a half seasons is pretty poor, especially when it comes to hard court matches. The Belgian has lost ten of her last twelve matches on the hard courts against those higher Ranked opponents and the biggest concern for Elise Mertens is that she has won just a single set across those ten losses.
In eight of those ten defeats, Elise Mertens would not have got within this number of games set for the handicap and I do think she will struggle to deal with Elena Rybakina who is looking to complete a 'Sunshine Double'.
I won't ignore the two tough matches that Rybakina has played in Miami and you do have to wonder if some accumulated fatigue is catching up with her, but the big hitting player will likely be able to earn a few more cheaper points in the match. That is key as Elena Rybakina continues to close on the top two in the World Rankings and I do think she has been returning at a consistent level that should be enough to take this Fourth Round match away from her opponent.
Elena Rybakina is not really a player who will cover this kind of line very often, even as she has grown into one of the best players on the Tour and that is perhaps down to her overall level on the return. One break is usually enough to win a set, especially as far as she is concerned, but I do think Rybakina will have chances against the Elise Mertens serve and can do just enough to win this match by a five game margin.
Petra Kvitova - 3.5 games v Varvara Gracheva: If reports are to be believed, Varvara Gracheva will soon be representing France instead of Russia on the Tour, but the young player is not allowing off court decisions to affect her performances.
She reached the Final in Austin last month and has backed that up by not only Qualifying for both Indian Wells and Miami, but also reaching the Fourth Round at both events. Her tournament was ended in the Fourth Round in Indian Wells by Elena Rybakina and another former Grand Slam Champion stands in front of Varvara Graceva in Miami.
A thumb issue was bothering Petra Kvitova in Indian Wells, but she was playing well there and has backed that up in Miami. The lefty has had a bounce back year on the hard courts, at least up until now, and Petra Kvitova has been dominant when facing those opponents Ranked outside the top 20 in the World Rankings.
Her numbers have backed that up and the return improvement is likely going to be key to determining the outcome of this Fourth Round match.
A win for Varvara Gracheva would see her crack the top 40 in the World Rankings and she is going to be rewarded with a career best World Ranking regardless of the outcome of this match. However, there are still some improvements to be made when facing top 50 Ranked opponents on the hard courts and I do think Gracheva has benefited from the draw to reach the Fourth Round this week.
Beating Ons Jabeur deserves more respect perhaps, but Jabeur is not in the best of form and I think Petra Kvitova will have too much on the serve for her younger opponent. That should lead to the chances to pull clear of this handicap mark, as Kvitova has proven to be the case when facing those players outside of the top 20 this season.
MY PICKS: Elena Rybakina - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova - 3.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)
Jessica Pegula - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Marketa Vondrousova - 3.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Frances Tiafoe - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Miami Update: 22-20, - 2.32 Units (86 Units Staked, - 2.69% Yield)
Dav, you mentioned that you made some changes to how you made your picks after a bad start to the tournament. Can you share what those changes were? Thanks.
ReplyDeleteHello.
DeleteSorry I meant I've made changes from last year after a really bad day at the US Open and need to stick with the process despite the poor start to the Miami tournament.
After the two big returns at the Australian Open and Indian Wells, it is clear the new approach is producing good results, but this is still a relatively small sample and so I am keeping things in check.
If things keep going as planned, I may write out some of the changes made later this year, most likely after the grass court season.
Thanks for the comment