It looked like being a strong bounce back day for the Tennis Picks, but frustratingly it was not to be.
Once again it came down to the fine margins, so I am not too disappointed with the selection method, but the fortune has been missing in this Miami Masters Tournament. You always need a bit of luck to get over the line, but I could not have come much closer on a few occasions through this tournament with the majority of those going the wrong way.
It happens in a long season, and the fact that the Picks have come so close to having another really good week keeps me confident in the manner in which they are being selected. Obviously winners would be the best way to keep the confidence in a good place!
Petra Kvitova - 2.5 games v Ekaterina Alexandrova: A low key opening to the season Down Under was followed by some poor results in Linz, Doha and Indian Wells and so there wouldn't have been a lot of expectation around Ekaterina Alexandrova at the beginning of the Miami Masters. Despite the underwhelming results, Alexandrova reached a new career high World Ranking just last month and the confidence has clearly not been lost through a poor run of form as the World Number 18 has made it through to the Quarter Final.
A really bad injury looks to have been suffered by Bianca Andreescu in the Fourth Round otherwise it might have been the Canadian and not Ekaterina Alexandrova lining up for this match. However, all credit has to be given to Alexandrova for the performance in the win over Belinda Bencic in the Third Round and she has proven to be a pretty steady hard court player over the last twelve months.
I would expect Ekaterina Alexandrova to have to be better than 'steady' if she is going to beat Petra Kvitova considering the start made to the 2023 season by the now veteran of the Tour. Last year was not the best for Kvitova on the hard courts, but she has looked much stronger in 2023 and you could make an argument that Petra Kvitova has beaten all of the players she should have and lost to those she probably should lose to at this stage of her career.
It is quite amazing to think of Petra Kvitova as a veteran, but she is 33 years old now and she holds a 6-4 record when facing top 20 Ranked opponents on the hard courts over the last twelve months. The numbers are pretty average in that time, especially on the return of serve, and she has to respect how well Ekaterina Alexandrova can play when at her best.
Finding her best consistently has been the problem, but you have to imagine Alexandrova is feeling about as good about her tennis as she can now she has reached the Quarter Final in Miami.
Petra Kvitova has also never been beyond the Quarter Final in Miami and things have changed for both players since the former crushed Ekaterina Alexandrova at the Australian Open in 2020.
I still think the Czech lefty might have a slight edge, but this should be a lot more competitive than their sole previous match was.
Ekaterina Alexandrova will have to serve well, but she is capable, although I do think the overall performances of the players this season gives Petra Kvitova the edge at the key moments in this match. Even in this tournament, Petra Kvitova has played well enough at the right times to progress to another Quarter Final and I think she will play the big points with enough authority to finally make the Semi Final at this Masters event.
MY PICKS: Petra Kvitova - 2.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Miami Update: 26-26, - 8.18 Units (106 Units Staked, - 7.72% Yield)
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