Wins for two selections against the handicap, plus the upset from Jason Kubler, worked the Picks into a profitable start from the tournament, although I was disappointed to see Katie Swan fail to push her way into a third set in her eventual straight sets loss.
The British player led 5-3 and missed set points while serving before failing to capitalise at 5-4, 0-40 in the next game and eventually lost four games in a row to be dumped out of the event.
However, I have to be happy with the start even if the sweep of the selections was missed.
On Thursday there is a much busier schedule set as a large majority of the First Round matches are completed in both the ATP and WTA events being played on site. That does mean the biggest names of the sport, sans Novak Djokovic, are all going to get underway at the first Masters event of 2023 over the weekend and there are some big Ranking points up for grabs.
With one more hard court Masters event scheduled for the end of the month, we are fast approaching the clay court season in Europe as the build towards the French Open will begin in April. Hopefully we will see Rafael Nadal back and ready to defend his crown and Novak Djokovic will be set to play in all of the events in the lead up to the second Grand Slam of the season too.
For now the concentration of the majority of the Tour will be putting together two solid hard court tournaments in Indian Wells and Miami and my focus is on the Tennis at those events as well.
Thanasi Kokkinakis - 3.5 games v Brandon Holt: I actually considered Thanasi Kokkinakis as potentially the better of the two Australian players when he broke through onto the Tour with Nick Kyrgios, but injuries have been a major factor in his career.
He has looked healthier to open 2023 and has a title win at Challenger level, while reaching the Semi Final of an ATP 250 tournament ahead of the Australian Open. The Number 94 World Ranking is a reflection of the lack of tennis played, not Kokkinakis' ability, and winning a couple of Qualifiers makes him dangerous.
I am not surprised he is favoured to beat Wild Card Brandon Holt who is still struggling nearer the 200 World Ranking mark rather than the top 100. The young American is still learning his trade on the Tour and he has had a couple of solid runs at the last two Grand Slam events, but Holt has not been able to back up the performance at the Australian Open and has been beaten relatively early at all of his recent events.
This is a big step up for Brandon Holt considering only two of his recent losses have been against players Ranked inside the top 100 and he is just 2-6 in those matches on the hard courts over the last year.
He is going to need to rely on serving very well if he is going to earn the upset in the First Round, because I am not sure how much joy Brandon Holt will have against the Thanasi Kokkinakis serve. That builds pressure on Holt and he has held 77% of his service games against top 100 Ranked opponents over the last year, a number that will be challenged by Kokkinakis who has broken in almost 30% of his return games on the hard courts over the last twelve months when facing an opponent Ranked outside the top 100.
The Australian is 11-1 in those matches too and he would have covered this handicap mark in nine of the ten wins that did not end in a retirement. Brandon Holt will receive plenty of support from the crowd, but Thanasi Kokkinakis has the tennis to break down his opponent and he can move through to the Second Round with some solid Ranking points secured.
Andy Murray - 4.5 games v Tomas Martin Etcheverry: The first thing I want to say here is that this is a big spread for Andy Murray to cover considering where his tennis has been since returning full time to the Tour. There have been flashes of the old Murray, and that player would have been confident of covering this mark, but the new Andy Murray is prone to chucking in a poor run of games and so has to fight much harder to win his matches.
However, the lower Ranking has meant he has run into much tougher opponents early in tournaments and so has not been able to build into events as he has liked. Reaching the Final in Doha last month is a boost and Andy Murray is climbing back towards the top 50 with his goal of being Seeded at Grand Slam events going forward certainly achievable.
He has also not had the best record at Indian Wells, even at his best, where the ball flies and defending on this hard court is that much tougher than in other events around the world.
In saying all that, I do think Andy Murray can get the better of Tomas Martin Etcheverry who has been playing clay court tennis over the last month in the Golden Swing in South America. He did reach the Final of the last of those in Santiago and was rewarded with his career best World Ranking earlier this week, although the hard courts are still unfamiliar terrain to the Argentine.
Tomas Martin Etcheverry does hold a winning record on the hard courts in his career, but he is just 5-6 on the surface over the last twelve months and three of those wins have been against players Ranked outside the top 100. This is only the seventh ever match against a top 100 Ranked on the hard courts and I do think Andy Murray should be better prepared even if he had to withdraw from the big event in Dubai following his Doha exploits.
Andy Murray might only have a 14-12 record on the hard courts over the last year, but that becomes 9-2 when only looking at matches against players Ranked outside the top 50, which backs up the point about the early, tough draws he has been handed. In those eleven matches, Andy Murray has held 80% of his service games and broken in 27% of return games and these are numbers that suggest he holds a big edge over his younger opponent.
We have seen Etcheverry break in just shy of 16% of return games played against top 100 Ranked opponents on the hard courts over the last year and that is something to note, even from a small sample of matches. It feels like Tomas Martin Etcheverry will have to serve very big to have a chance in this one, although I am a touch concerned that Andy Murray has not had a very good time of covering a line like this one, even in the nine wins against players Ranked outside the top 50 on the surface over the last year.
However, I think the move from clay to the hard courts in Indian Wells works against Tomas Martin Etcheverry and I will take any odds against quotes for Murray to win and cover.
MY PICKS: Thanasi Kokkinakis - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Gregoire Barrere - 2.5 Games @ 1.85 Coral (2 Units)
Alexei Popyrin - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Danielle Collins - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Marketa Vondrousova - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Laura Siegemund - 1.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)
Indian Wells Update: 3-1, + 2.85 Units (7 Units Staked, + 40.71% Yield)
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