After a disappointing 2022, and a pretty horrific day early at the US Open, those changes needed to be made and I think my adjustments had just fallen behind the layers having previously put together a number of successful seasons.
Being one step behind the odds compilers is a massive problem, but I do feel I may be in a better place now and the being tougher on the Picks has yielded a positive position early in this long season.
These are decisions that have to be made and I do think the open record makes it clear in black and white when it feels like things are not going as planned. Without that, you can end up in a terrible place in my opinion and it leads to maintaining the same approach over and over again and expecting results to change, which we all know is the definition of only one thing.
So the Indian Wells totals have remained in the same place as they were after the Fourth Round and we are down to the final three days at the tournament.
On Friday the WTA Semi Final matches are set to take centre stage before the two ATP Semi Finals on Saturday.
Aryna Sabalenka - 3.5 games v Maria Sakkari: After winning the first professional meeting between these players, Maria Sakkari was to lose four in a row against Aryna Sabalenka. The tables have turned with the last two matches both won by Sakkari at the WTA Finals in 2021 and 2022, but the Greek player is going to have to up her level significantly in this Indian Wells Semi Final to make it three in a row against one of the best players in the world.
The Maria Sakkari win over Aryna Sabalenka at the WTA Finals at the end of last season came with a dominant performance and that will have given her a lot of confidence, but things have changed for the World Number 2 in the time that has passed between that last match and this one.
Winning the Australian Open will have given Aryna Sabalenka a whole boatload of belief in her tennis and she has backed that up with five wins from six matches played. Losing in the Dubai Quarter Final will have stung, but Sabalenka has earned some revenge for the defeat to Barbora Krejcikova by seeing her off in this tournament where her numbers have been hugely impressive.
The first serve has proven to be a major weapon for the winner of the first Grand Slam of 2023 and the conditions in Indian Wells have just allowed Sabalenka to really tee off when it comes to the return.
The pressure will be on Maria Sakkari to try and up her first serve percentage which stands at 54% for the tournament- allowing Sabalenka to see too many second serves could be a problem for Sakkari who has won 39% of points played behind her second serve this week. It has been a problem for Maria Sakkari who has dropped serve fifteen times in four wins and the World Number 7 has spent a considerable amount of time longer on the court compared to her Semi Final opponent.
Maria Sakkari has to have confidence from winning the last two meetings with Aryna Sabalenka, but the latter looks to be in a different frame of mind these days.
I do think Sakkari will pose problems and has the game to frustrate the higher Ranked opponent, but Aryna Sabalenka has been serving a little better than Maria Sakkari this week and I think she will see a few more second serves to earn the breaks of serve to cover this line on the way to the first Masters Final of the 2023 season.
A few thoughts on the other Semi Final- Elena Rybakina has gotten the better of the World Number 1 Iga Swiatek in the two occasions they have met since the end of the last calendar year and that includes a pretty comfortable win at the Australian Open.
However, the conditions in Indian Wells are much slower and Swiatek has been in imperious form since the conclusion of the first Grand Slam of the 2023 season.
I think the World Number 1 has really enjoyed playing here and her numbers are very good, but covering this line against a server of the quality of Elena Rybakina will not be easy.
In saying that, I am not sure I could back Rybakina either having had a pretty good, but not a great week to reach the Semi Final.
MY PICKS: Aryna Sabalenka - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Indian Wells Update: 21-13, + 9.97 Units (69 Units Staked, + 14.45% Yield)
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