It was a tough day for the Tennis Picks and ended with a 2-3 record, but there is still some time left at the Miami Masters to turn things back in our favour.
The WTA Fourth Round matches were concluded on Monday and it is the turn of the ATP tournament to have their entire Fourth Round played on Tuesday. We also have a couple of the WTA Quarter Final matches scheduled to be played and the expectation is that the entire schedule will be completed, despite the chance of some rain later in the evening in South Florida.
Now we have gotten into the later stages of the Miami Masters, there are some top matches scheduled to be played and you can read my thoughts for the day below.
Carlos Alcaraz - 4.5 games v Tommy Paul: Novak Djokovic is likely going to have something to say about this over the next several months, but there isn't a player performing at a higher level than Carlos Alcaraz playing in Miami at this Masters tournament. Daniil Medvedev might have had a case to make, but he was dismissed by the World Number 1 in the Indian Wells Final and Carlos Alcaraz is a favourite to complete the Sunshine Double having dominated in his two wins in this event.
He hasn't only been feasting on the kind of draw a Number 1 Seed can earn, but Carlos Alcaraz has wins over the likes of Cameron Norrie, Jannik Sinner and Medvedev and is a significant favourite against Tommy Paul in this Fourth Round match.
The American deserves a lot of credit for the kind of improvements he has made in his tennis over the last eighteen months and Tommy Paul is going to be back at his career best World Ranking of Number 18 regardless of the result on Tuesday. He could move much further up the World Rankings by going on and winning the Miami Masters, but over the last twelve months we have seen Tommy Paul struggle to compete with the top 10 players on the Tour, even on his favourite hard court surface.
In saying that, Tommy Paul did beat Carlos Alcaraz at the Canadian Masters last summer, although he had to save a lot of Break Points on the day. You have to think it would not take a lot to change the outcome of that match for the World Number 1, and the numbers produced in the last two hard court tournaments are extremely strong.
A strong serve should keep Tommy Paul at bay, but Carlos Alcaraz is also breaking in 36% of return games played and I do think he will put Paul under pressure.
In the eight matches played against top ten Ranked opponents on the hard courts over the last twelve months, Tommy Paul has actually won fewer than 60% of service points played and I expect he will need to fend off plenty of Break Points in this match against Carlos Alcaraz. He may even be able to do that, but the pressure could be telling and Alcaraz looks like a player keen to hold onto the Number 1 Ranking before the start of the clay court season, one in which he will feel amongst the favourites to win the French Open.
Carlos Alcaraz can earn the revenge for the sole loss to Tommy Paul at this event and I think he is playing at an extremely high level that can see him break down the opponent.
Jannik Sinner - 2.5 games v Andrey Rublev: I have a lot of time for Andrey Rublev, who seems a genuinely good person, but he will need to give himself time to really appreciate how good a tennis player he is. I say that in light of the recent viral video which saw him talking up Carlos Alcaraz having watched him hitting in training, while also downplaying his own ability and that may have contributed to the tough results Rublev has had against the better players on the Tour.
In Tennis, like many sports, you need to have belief in yourself before you can really produce your best.
I think Andrey Rublev knows he is a good player, but he certainly feels there are better players out there and that can produce a mental hurdle that is difficult to overcome in the most pressurised of spots.
Over the last twelve months, Andrey Rublev has a 5-8 record against top 20 Ranked players on the hard courts, and his numbers drop significantly on the serve and return in those matches compared with his overall totals. He is clearly a capable player, but Rublev perhaps does not see himself in the same way as those around him in the Rankings and that has contributed to the big drop in level.
He is facing a tough opponent in Jannik Sinner in this big Fourth Round match, but the Italian has also struggled to a 2-6 record against top 20 Ranked players on the hard courts over the last twelve months. However, Jannik Sinner has been unfortunate in a couple of very close matches that could have easily gone his way and that is backed up by the numbers.
Jannik Sinner needs to get a little more out of his serve when it comes to playing the better players on the Tour, but we have seen signs of that in 2023. In five matches against top 20 Ranked players on this surface this calendar year, Sinner has won 65% of his service points played and he has stronger numbers on the serve and return compared with Andrey Rublev.
They have met four times on the Tour, but Rublev's two wins have come in matches that have not been finished as Jannik Sinner has been forced to 'retire'. The other two have resulted in Sinner wins, but this is the first time they will have had a proper match on the hard courts (just three games played when they faced off in Vienna in October 2020).
While I am anticipating a close match, I do think Jannik Sinner has been the stronger player to open 2023 and has had a bit more success when facing the stronger players compared with Andrey Rublev. I am expecting Sinner to get a bit more out of the return of serve and that could be key to the outcome of this Fourth Round match and I will look for him to progress.
MY PICKS: Carlos Alcaraz - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Jannik Sinner - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Taylor Fritz - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Emil Ruusuvuori - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Stefanos Tsitsipas @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Miami Update: 24-23, - 5.44 Units (96 Units Staked, - 5.67% Yield)
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