Indian Wells Tennis Picks 2023 (March 13th)

It was another day where a poor start saw the Tennis Picks drop to 0-3, but two late winners at least prevented it from being a really bad day in the office.

However, it was the first losing day at the Indian Wells Tournament and I am looking to bounce back on Monday as the Third Round continues in conditions that not being appreciated by all that take to the courts.

Daniil Medvedev has been complaining about how slow the courts are, especially considering this is supposed to be a hard court Masters event, and I do think it makes it difficult for those who want to punch through the court. Overhitting leads to mistakes in the air where the ball can fly off the racquet and it is not ideal for players who are used to performing on this surface in a certain way.

A first losing day has stung, but there is another long day coming up at Indian Wells and you can see my selections from the matches coming up below.

Marton Fucsovics - 2.5 games v Alex Molcan: There are eight Third Round matches from the ATP Tournament to be played on Monday, but the sole selection comes from a match featuring two of the more surprising players left in the draw.

Alex Molcan and Marton Fucsovics are both Ranked outside the top 50 of the World Rankings and both have needed an upset over a top 20 Ranked opponent to earn their place in the Third Round.

Credit to the pair of them for doing that, but over the last twelve months it has been a struggle for the two when playing top 100 Ranked opponents on the surface. Both have losing records in that time and Alex Molcan was just 2-10 in the matches until winning twice in that spot at Indian Wells, while Marton Fucsovics was 4-9 before two wins of his own.

That doesn't offer a lot of encouragement and the two players have very similar numbers behind serve in those matches with 60% of service points won and holds in 72% (Molcan) and 74% (Fucsovics) of service games played.

The difference looks to be in the return game with Fucsovics winning a number of percentage points more against the serve compared with Alex Molcan and I think that could where the edge will be in this big Third Round match that will give the winner a jump in Ranking points.

Marton Fucsovics has broken in 26% of return games played compared with Alex Molcan's 16% mark and I do think the former can create the majority of chances in this match.

Of course the lack of real confidence that either player has to be playing with on the hard courts could see things spiral, but I do like the Hungarian and his chances of winning and covering. As long as Marton Fucsovics returns as he can, I expect him to have the Break Point chances to win the match and he can find those breaks to secure a cover of this line.

MY PICKS: Marton Fucsovics - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Caroline Garcia - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Karolina Muchova - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Marketa Vondrousova - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Indian Wells Update: 16-9, + 8.91 Units (51 Units Staked, + 17.47% Yield)