That means some players are going to be playing on consecutive days and I am surprised by the way the tournament is being organised when you think the split of the Fourth Round would mean the Quarter Finals, Semi Finals and Finals could be played as you would have expected from Thursday through to Sunday.
Instead the Quarter Finals are split to be played on Wednesday and Thursday before the WTA Semi Finals get underway on Friday and the ATP Semi Finals are played on Saturday.
Both Finals will be played on the same day to round off the first Masters of the season, but it is what it is and the players have to cope.
The Tennis Picks returned a 3-1 record on Monday to get the earn another winning day, but there is still time for things to turn sour so this is the moment to remain focused and make sure the selections are researched as much as they can be.
It is a busy day and these are the days when things can go badly wrong if losing focus.
With the tournament now into the Fourth Round, there are some big matches scheduled to be played and you can read some of my thoughts below.
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - 3.5 games v Cristian Garin: He may have had a bit of fortune to get the better of Karen Khachanov in the last Round, but Alejandro Davidovich Fokina played well enough to recover from a second set collapse and take his place in the Fourth Round.
This will feel like an important tournament for the Spaniard as he looks to keep the Ranking points ticking over before what should be a more productive time of the season when the Tour moves onto the European clay courts in less than a month from now.
I do think Alejandro Davidovich Fokina can be a tough player to trust with his numbers not exactly the most impressive- even when considering matches against players Ranked outside the top 20, the Davidovich Fokina numbers are a little underwhelming on the hard courts and he is just 11-8 in the win-loss record in those matches over the last twelve months.
That does improve to 9-2 when looking at matches against players Ranked outside the top 50 and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina should be pretty comfortable with the match up against an opponent who will also appreciate the slower conditions.
Cristian Garin is far better than his World Number 97 Ranking would suggest as injuries have held him back, and he has to be respected having won a couple of Qualifiers before three main draw matches here in Indian Wells. The upset of Casper Ruud in the Third Round will only be a boost to the confidence as Garin has opened this section of the draw, although the Chilean had only been 1-7 against top 100 Ranked opponents on the hard courts over the last twelve months before adding three wins here.
Even including those wins, the Garin hard court numbers against the better players on the Tour are not that impressive and I think Alejandro Davidovich Fokina will have an edge on the return, which could pay dividends in these conditions and on this court.
The two previous matches between these opponents have been tight and competitive and I think every game will be a battle, but Alejandro Davidovich Fokina did have the better of the numbers in those previous matches. He lost the first on a clay court to Cristian Garin, but beat him on an indoor hard court at the end of 2021 and I think the Spaniard will be able to frank that form with his slightly superior returning numbers.
He is also getting a bit more out of the serve and I think that could see the higher Ranked player move through to the Quarter Final behind a good looking win.
Andrey Rublev - 2.5 games v Cameron Norrie: Two top 12 Ranked players meet in this big Fourth Round match in Indian Wells and I give the narrow edge to Andrey Rublev to work his way through to another hard court Quarter Final.
He did that at the Australian Open and reached the Final in a big event in Dubai, but Andrey Rublev would likely be the first to admit that his opening to 2023 has been largely underwhelming. The World Number 7 is slightly down on his 2022 serving and returning numbers and that small percentage can make a big difference in terms of results, although the signs are that Rublev is getting back to his best.
The layers make him a narrow favourite to beat Cameron Norrie who has surprisingly been playing in Golden Swing tournaments in South America rather than hard court events. It has not stopped the British Number 1 compiling a very impressive 20-3 record already in 2023, while Cameron Norrie has made a relatively seamless transition from the clay back onto the hard courts with two wins at Indian Wells.
It was a somewhat disappointing Australian Open for Cameron Norrie having reached the Final in Auckland in a warm up event, but he has grown into a very good hard court player in the last couple of years.
However, the left hander has to show he can put that quality tennis against the better players on the Tour and Cameron Norrie is just 5-5 in hard court matches against top 20 Ranked opponents over the last twelve months. That does improve to 4-3 when considering top 10 opponents, but the numbers don't lie and Norrie's return game takes a huge hit when facing those quality opponents.
Andrey Rublev also has had his problems against top 20 Ranked opponents on this surface over the last year, and has a losing record in those matches. However, his serve has been slightly more reliable, while the Russian wins a similar amount of return points as Cameron Norrie in those matches.
This could come down to which of these players serves the best on the day, but I do think a slight edge can be offered to the higher Ranked player who has a 2-1 record against Cameron Norrie, with all three previous matches being hard court matches. In those, Andrey Rublev has held 91% of service games played compared with Cameron Norrie's 73% mark and I do think Rublev will have the majority of chances in this one, even if the slower conditions could favour the Cam Norrie game a little more.
It should be another good match between these two elite players, but I do think Andrey Rublev can get the better of Cameron Norrie on the day as long as he continues to serve as he has in his first two matches at the tournament.
MY PICKS: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Andrey Rublev - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Frances Tiafoe - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
Jannik Sinner - 4.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)
Caroline Garcia - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Indian Wells Update: 19-10, + 12.17 Units (59 Units Staked, + 20.63% Yield)
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