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Friday 10 March 2023

Indian Wells Tennis Picks 2023 (March 10th)

It was a bit of an up and down Thursday at Indian Wells for the Tennis Picks, but returning with a profit after a 4-3 day is welcomed.

That adds to the good start made on Wednesday and we now head into the Second Round with some of the biggest names on the Tour in action. It can be tough for those players with their opponents having at least one match in the conditions under their belt, but that cannot be used as an excuse in one of the biggest tournaments that will be played over the course of the 2023 season.

I have something to build upon after the conclusion of the First Round, but this is a long tournament and keeping focused and putting those winning days together is always the challenge we have to meet.


Stefanos Tsitsipas - 4.5 games v Jordan Thompson: It has been a while since World Number 3 Stefanos Tsitsipas has been out on court and remarks that he wants to be known for 'more than tennis' are a touch surprising.

Of course you want to use your platform to promote or back issues that are important to you, but without tennis Tsitsipas would not have the name to do what he wants to do. And the reality is his voice becomes more powerful if he continues operating at the top of the World Rankings, but this is by the by.

He is still performing at a good level on the Tour, but Stefanos Tsitsipas has only played two matches since losing in the Australian Open Final.

The question is 'has he lost focus on his tennis or has he not been feeling at his best on the court?'

We may get those answers at the next two Masters events before the move onto the clay courts, which should be a surface on which Stefanos Tsitsipas thrives and I do think he wins this Second Round match at Indian Wells.

Jordan Thompson has won a match already at the tournament and he won a Challenger event on the hard courts in Europe at the end of February, but the Australian has not really been able to find his feet when facing the better players on the Tour. His 4-9 record against top 100 Ranked opponents on the hard courts over the last twelve months is far from ideal when preparing to play a Masters 1000 event, while the numbers against top 50 Ranked opponents over that same time period when it comes to hard court matches have been tough to read.

Stefanos Tsitsipas has two strong wins over Jordan Thompson, including at Wimbledon last year, and there has been a massive difference in the way they have performed in those matches. The higher Ranked player has held 96% of his service games played compared with Jordan Thompson's 72% mark, while there is a 17% difference in terms of points won behind serve in favour of Tsitsipas.

This is a wide spread considering the lack of tennis that Stefanos Tsitsipas has played over the last month, but I think the match up is a decent one for him.

He has some underwhelming return numbers overall, but Stefanos Tsitsipas has been very strong when facing opponents Ranked outside the top 50 in hard court matches. Stefanos Tsitsipas has a 15-3 record in those matches and he would have covered this line in ten of those victories so I will look for him to do the same in this Second Round match.

MY PICKS: Stefanos Tsitsipas - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Botic Van De Zandschlup - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Roberto Bautista Agut - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Frances Tiafoe - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova - 5.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)
Coco Gauff - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Jessica Pegula - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Indian Wells Update: 7-4, + 4.11 Units (21 Units Staked, + 19.57% Yield)

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