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NFL Week 11 Picks 2024 (Thursday 14th November-Monday 18th November)

It was the week that I had been fearing for a while, but in each of the last few weeks I have mentioned that continuing to produce winning e...

Wednesday, 30 June 2021

Wimbledon Tennis Day 3 Picks 2021 (June 30th)

Like many, I have going to be glued to a television screen watching the England vs Germany Last 16 tie at Euro 2020 and that means this is going to be a much shorter post than we have seen in the first two days of the Wimbledon tournament.

I will update any additional Picks on Wednesday when Day 3 is usually the start of the Second Round, but rain in the area makes it feel like there will be plenty of First Round matches that need to be completed too.

It should mean a busy day in this part of SW19, but the weather looks to be improving to get the tournament back on track after the wet start experienced by all.

For those heading to the grounds without Centre, Court One or Court Two tickets, the day should still be full of big names littered on the outside courts and that should mean a really enjoyable day for the fans attending Day 3 of this Grand Slam.


Novak Djokovic-Kevin Anderson over 29.5 games: The 2018 Wimbledon Final saw Novak Djokovic beat Kevin Anderson in straight sets, but in the years since injuries have pushed the latter down the World Rankings.

Both of these players were able to win First Round matches in four sets, but it shows how far Kevin Anderson has fallen over the last couple of years that he has to take on World Number 1 and Wimbledon favourite Novak Djokovic in the Second Round. This is a tough match up for Kevin Anderson at his best, but it feels like Djokovic has the match on his own racquet in this Second Round encounter and it would be a major surprise if the top Seed is not able to work his way through to the Third Round later in the week.

Rain could potentially see the match played under a roof on either Centre Court or Court One, but conditions seem a little drier on Wednesday and that can only benefit Novak Djokovic even more. If this was played under the roof, Kevin Anderson has the kind of serve that could be very difficult to deal with, but the feeling is that Novak Djokovic is going to be too good all around.

This will be the fourth time these two players have met at Wimbledon and it is Novak Djokovic who has won the previous three including in the Final of 2018. However, their most famous meeting may have been the Fourth Round match in 2015 which Kevin Anderson led 2-0 before Djokovic was able to fight back and win in five sets.

The most recent match came on a hard court in January 2020 which was also won by Novak Djokovic and I can't emphasise enough what kind of a shock it would be if Kevin Anderson was able to win this match after the injuries and loss of form he has experienced.

However, it does feel like the layers are expecting a really routine win for Novak Djokovic considering the number of games he is being asked to cover on the handicap and where they have placed the total games line. I am a little surprised by that even if Novak Djokovic is one of the greatest return players of all time and that is largely because Kevin Anderson is a player that can get into rhythm behind his serve and essentially put together enough games to force at least one tie-breaker.

Novak Djokovic did win the opening two sets of the 2018 Final by the same 6/2 scoreline, and he does have a habit of beginning to pick the Anderson serve, but even then Kevin Anderson forced a third set tie-breaker.

The big South African was not broken in his First Round win and he has held 93% of his service games on the grass over the last month. Granted he has not really faced anyone like Novak Djokovic in that time, but I do think Kevin Anderson will be able to serve well enough to at least push the World Number 1 into a couple of longer sets which should put the match well on the way to covering this total games line.


Marton Fucsovics - 1.5 sets v Jiri Vesely: Coming off an upset win is not easy for any player, but Marton Fucsovics may not have felt his victory over Jannik Sinner was as big a surprise as other people may believe it to be. He is a former Junior Champion at Wimbledon and Marton Fucsovics has shown he is more than capable of playing on this surface which will give him confidence.

This is a challenging Second Round match against Jiri Vesely who is another player that has had successes on the grass in the past, although the performances in the build up to Wimbledon have been sub-par to say the least. A comfortable First Round win will be a boost for the confidence, but Vesely will know that he will need to up his game against someone like Marton Fucsovics who has had a consistently better season to date.

Two years ago Jiri Vesely reached the Third Round at Wimbledon after coming through the Qualifiers and that included an upset win over Alexander Zverev. In 2018 Jiri Vesely went one better by reaching the Fourth Round at Wimbledon and those kinds of results will have him very much up for the fight in this Second Round match.

He has a big serve coming from a lefty stance which can be dangerous on the faster surface and Jiri Vesely might feel the pressure is on his opponent. However, he was only holding 82% of his service games prior to the start of Wimbledon, while the Jiri Vesely return was really problematic having won 30% of return points and breaking in just 8% of return games.

I think there is an opportunity to have more success against Marton Fucsovics considering the lack of real bite that the Hungarian will get off his own serve. It can certainly be inconsistent and Marton Fucsovics had been struggling in the preparation tournaments himself, but the win over Jannik Sinner will give him some confidence and his previous levels on the grass courts are certainly good enough to win a match like this one.

The previous head to heads between these players shows how tight the match could become, but I think Marton Fucsovics has played the more consistent tennis of the two over the last few months. That should mean he is more prepared to deal with the really big points and I think Fucsovics is going to be able to come through in either three or four sets against a solid Jiri Vesely in this Second Round match.

MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic-Kevin Anderson Over 29.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)
Marton Fucsovics - 1.5 Sets @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Gregoire Barrere - 1.5 Sets @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Ilya Ivashka - 1.5 Sets @ 1.66 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Casper Ruud - 1.5 Sets @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Andreas Seppi @ 2.20 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Sebastian Korda - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Fabio Fognini - 1.5 Sets @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Diego Sebastian Schwartzman - 6.5 Games @ 2.20 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Roberto Bautista Agut - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Denis Shapovalov - 7.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Ana Bogdan + 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Katie Boulter + 6.5 Games @ 1.66 Bet365 (2 Units)
Iga Swiatek - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Ekaterina Alexandrova - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Madison Keys - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Elena Rybakina - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Sofia Kenin - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Karolina Pliskova - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Wimbledon Update: 17-6, + 18.02 Units (46 Units Staked, + 39.17% Yield)

Tuesday, 29 June 2021

Wimbledon Tennis Day 2 Picks 2021 (June 29th)

After a two year wait to see tennis being played in the SW19 postcode of Greater London, I don't think anyone would have been that surprised to see the weather decide to play games with fans.

Wimbledon opened up with a huge delay to the outside courts and it actually means the First Round is not going to be completed on Tuesday evening like would have been scheduled. Fortunately the weather picked up enough to make sure that plenty of the First Round matches from the top half of the Men's draw and bottom half of the Women's draw were played and that should mean the tournament can get back on track by the end of the week.

There have already been some upsets in both the Men's and Women's draws already on the opening day of the tournament with Stefanos Tsitsipas and Petra Kvitova exiting, but Andy Murray was able to win his opening match despite blowing a 5-0 lead in the third set and being forced to complete the match under the roof late in the evening.

I anticipated there may be some upsets early in the tournament with the courts likely needing to be worked into shape and with players missing a year of grass court tennis in 2020. Avoiding those surprise results won't be easy, but it was a positive enough beginning for the Tennis Picks for this fortnight, although a number of matches from Day 1 have to be completed on Day 2.

It could be another day filled with delays because of the little amount of rain and mist that makes the courts very slippery, but I am hoping the morning will get through comfortably enough.

Below I have added the selections for Day 2 as the other half of the Men's and Women's draws also get underway.


Nick Kyrgios-Ugo Humbert over 40.5 games: The Covid-19 outbreak in 2020 dented the Tennis Tour and there have been a few players that have decided they did not want to travel at such a time.

Most have returned to the Tour before now, but Nick Kyrgios took a few more months to get himself a little more comfortable and will return to competitive action for the first time since the Australian Open. He played in the tournaments that were arranged by Australia, but Nick Kyrgios has left his home country for the first time since the global pandemic began and it is difficult to know what to expect from him.

He played well Down Under, but the travelling and playing on a new surface may take some getting used to for Nick Kyrgios who is also in the Mixed Doubles alongside Venus Williams.

The Australian has spoken about using this time as a vacation having not left home for fifteen months, but I think that is partly to ease some of the pressure that competitive tennis bring. Nick Kyrgios is very comfortable on the grass courts with his huge serve and powerful forehand a big weapon on the surface, but the draw has not been very kind to him and facing a Seed like Ugo Humbert is going to be a big challenge.

Ugo Humbert won a grass court title in Halle, a big warm up event for Wimbledon, and the serve is a big weapon for the Frenchman on this surface too.

However, I do wonder if the return aspect will let Ugo Humbert down at times even if he is facing an opponent that has had little competitive tennis over the last few months. One aspect of the Nick Kyrgios game that should have remained largely steady is the big serves and I think that will give him a chance to get into tie-breakers in this First Round match and from there anything can happen.

It isn't the first time Nick Kyrgios will have faced Ugo Humbert in a Grand Slam tournament after a long lay off after beating him at the Australian Open in February in a five setter. Both players had very strong serving numbers in Melbourne and you would expect that to be more noticeable on the grass courts of Wimbledon and I think there is every chance we are going to need at least four sets in this one.

That should set the match up on the way to a cover of the total games line and I do think there are going to be some long sets with both players able to come through service games fairly quickly. The edge has to go to Ugo Humbert in the match considering the lack of competitive tennis played by Nick Kyrgios, but the latter is very comfortable in his own mind and I think the surface is one that will mean he doesn't have to see his tennis completely tested with short points likely to his benefit.

We should see Nick Kyrgios able to take at least a set, but Ugo Humbert should be able to come through in four tough sets and the pick is to see the match cover the total line.


Jan-Lennard Struff-Daniil Medvedev over 35.5 games: The first match back on the grass courts after a two year absence for both Jan-Lennard Struff and Daniil Medvedev came against each other in Halle and it was the German who upset the odds in his own country. However, the two players have been producing vastly different results on the surface since then and it would be a bigger upset if Jan-Lennard Struff is able to beat the Number 2 Seeded Daniil Medvedev in the opening Round at Wimbledon.

The win over Daniil Medvedev was the sole one that Jan-Lennard Struff produced on the grass courts in preparation for Wimbledon and defeats to Marcos Giron and Adrian Mannarino are disappointing ones since then.

On the other hand, Daniil Medvedev bounced back from the surprise loss early in Halle to win the title in Mallorca and he has openly admitted that he is a fan of the grass courts. That is a marked difference to the Russian's opinion of the clay courts, but he had a strong run in Paris and I do think he can potentially make the Final here at Wimbledon.

The serve is a big weapon for Medvedev on all surfaces, but it is particularly potent on the hard and grass courts and it should set him up for a good run here. Backing up the serve with an impressive return only makes Daniil Medvedev all the more dangerous and I do think he is going to have picked up some vital information about what he is going to be expecting from Jan-Lennard Struff having met him very recently on the grass courts.

The Jan-Lennard Struff serve is a strong weapon for the German on the grass courts too and I think that will at least make him competitive in this match even if he is not able to win. He can force tie-breakers and Struff will feel he can take a swing at enough returns to win at least one of those if it comes down to it and matches between these players have usually seen some swings in momentum and sets being split up.

I do anticipate the Daniil Medvedev return to prove to be the difference on the day, but the layers are perhaps underestimating where the total games line should be. It might need Jan-Lennard Struff to steal a set, but even without that there is a possibility a straight sets win could cover this line as long as the German serves as he can on the surface and perhaps force a couple of tie-breakers too.


Richard Gasquet - 5.5 games v Yuichi Sugita: Most of the talk about veterans on the Men's side of the draw are focused on Roger Federer and Andy Murray and as former Wimbledon Champions you can't be surprised by that. Many feel those two players could potentially be playing in their last tournament at SW19, but another in the draw is Richard Gasquet who is a former Semi Finalist at Wimbledon.

Injuries have hurt the latter years of Richard Gasquet's career and he has slipped outside of the top 50 of the World Rankings and with another fall likely to come once the World Rankings are restored to the 52 week formula. He hasn't played since entering the Nottingham Challenger earlier this month and Richard Gasquet was forced to pull out with an injury in the Quarter Final there after two strong wins.

That is a concern going into Wimbledon, but Richard Gasquet will likely only take to the court if he is ready to compete and I think he would have been preparing for this tournament rather than risking further issues by entering other events in the build up to the Grand Slam. The Frenchman has always been a pretty efficient grass court player and I do think Richard Gasquet is good enough to win a match like this one even if the return of serve has been an issue for him in more recent years.

He won't be facing a massive serve in this First Round match when taking on Yuichi Sugita who lost his sole grass court match played in 2021 at the Nottingham Challenger mentioned. It has been a difficult twelve months for Sugita and he has dropped out of the top 100 of the World Rankings.

Yuichi Sugita has to be respected for some of the past successes he has had on the grass courts, but he does have a losing record against top 100 Ranked opponents on the surface. The tennis is something that should be pretty comfortable for Richard Gasquet to deal with too and I think that is where the favourite should be able to get on top of the match.

Their sole previous Grand Slam meeting came at the US Open and was won very comfortably by Richard Gasquet in 2018, but there are more doubts about the veteran these days. With that in mind I do think it will be a closer match than the 6/3, 6/1, 6/3 score produced by Gasquet that day, but Yuichi Sugita may still have issues getting much more out of this one.

I think it is possible that both of these players have successes on the return of serve, but over the last twelve months it is Richard Gasquet who has just shown a little more with the serve. That should pave the way for the Frenchman to perhaps set up another old rivalry in the Second Round where Roger Federer could wait having played Rafael Nadal at the French Open.


Marin Cilic - 7.5 games v Salvatore Caruso: His best days may be behind him, but former US Open Champion and former Wimbledon Finalist Marin Cilic will head to SW19 feeling pretty good about his chances at this year's tournament. The Croatian may have dropped back into World Number 37 which would have meant heading into the tournament without being a Seed, but Marin Cilic has snuck in as the Number 32 Seed here after withdrawals from those higher up the Rankings.

Marin Cilic struggles for consistency these days, but he has long been comfortable on the grass courts and the experiences have clearly helped him in the build up to Wimbledon. He won the title in Stuttgart and then reached the Quarter Final at Queens Club which will have given Marin Cilic plenty of belief in his game and where it is at this point in time.

A kind draw looks to have give Marin Cilic an opportunity to build some momentum into this tournament and I think he will be a big favourite to win the first two matches at Wimbledon before a potentially huge match against Daniil Medvedev in the Third Round.

First up is Salvatore Caruso who has lost his only grass court match played this year and has not really ever been that comfortable on the surface. The Italian has never won a main draw match at Wimbledon, although he did play well enough to come through the Qualifiers for this Grand Slam two years ago, while Salvatore Caruso has never beaten a top 100 Ranked opponent on the grass courts either.

In those previous three matches in that spot, Salvatore Caruso has seen his serve being attacked repeatedly and he has won just 51% of service points behind it, while the return has not been good enough to prevent one-sided defeats.

The Marin Cilic return is not where it was when the Croatian reached World Number 3, but he has shown some positive signs over the last month back on the grass. Marin Cilic has won 39% of return points played and broken in 20% of return games played, but now faces someone who is not very confident on the grass and I think this is the kind of match where Cilic should be able to go through the gears and eventually win with some margin to spare.

Nothing seems to come very easy for Marin Cilic these days, but I think he should have too much for Salvatore Caruso and a move through the gears as the match wears on should see the former Finalist clear a big number.

MY PICKS: Nick Kyrgios-Ugo Humbert Over 40.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Jan-Lennard Struff-Daniil Medvedev Over 35.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Richard Gasquet - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 7.5 Games @ 1.85 Coral (2 Units)
Alex Bolt - 1.5 Sets @ 2.20 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Angelique Kerber - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Serena Williams - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Katerina Siniakova - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Wimbledon Update: 6-4, +  2.40 Units (20 Units Staked, + 12% Yield)

Monday, 28 June 2021

Wimbledon Tennis Day 1 Picks 2021 (June 28th)

The Covid-19 pandemic had a big impact on many events last year with the likes of the European Championship, Olympics and Copa America postponed and moved into 2021.

In the main the Tennis Majors escaped the issues having seen the Australian Open completed before the pandemic shut down the world, while the likes of the French Open and US Open were played later in 2020 at a time when sports had set up ways to deal with the issues that most were still having to deal with by using bubbles.

The biggest absentee on the Tennis Tour calendar was Wimbledon and it has been two years since a ball was hit on Centre Court.

It all changes on Monday 28th June.

Wimbledon is back, although the London weather has changed for the worse in recent days and it looks like being a very wet opening to the tournament.

Two Courts have roofs these days though and that should mean plenty of tennis is going to be played throughout the fortnight.

Unsurprisingly Novak Djokovic is the favourite to win the Men's event in SW19 and that is down to the fact that he has won fourteen matches in a row at Wimbledon and won back to back titles. After winning the French Open I think Novak Djokovic is deserving of his tag as favourite and he can match the Grand Slam tally of both Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal.

Roger Federer and Andy Murray are two veterans looking to have an impact at this level despite playing very little tennis over the last two years, while some of the young contenders may feel this is a relatively open draw behind Novak Djokovic and will be targeting a place in the Final a week on Sunday.

And the Ladies event is once again looking like it could produce yet another new Grand Slam Champion with none of the leading contenders having a clear edge- Serena Williams may not have many better opportunities to win another Grand Slam considering the experiences she has on the grass compared to the other top names left in the draw.

Getting through the first week and avoiding the dramas that the top Seeds had to deal with in Paris is going to be the key for the top WTA players competing in London this week and from there I do think it will be a wide open tournament and with all players left in the Fourth Round looking like they can go on and win a Grand Slam title.


Over the coming fortnight I will have daily picks from the tournament, but it has been a difficult season.

I am also a little wary that the lack of grass court tennis played over the last two years will have impacted players as they try and find their feet on the surface in what is a small portion of the Tennis Tour.

That may lead to some early upsets and struggles, but I am looking for a Grand Slam with more consistency for the Tennis Picks than I had at the French Open and maybe see this as the start of a positive last five months of the 2021 season,


Novak Djokovic - 9.5 games v Jack Draper: Fresh off of winning his second French Open title, Novak Djokovic will head into Wimbledon as the favourite to take home Grand Slam title number 20 having won the last two editions of this Slam. Most of the top contenders either don't have the experience or have played enough tennis to truly believe they can master Novak Djokovic in a best of five format at this Grand Slam, but the World Number 1 could potentially be at his most vulnerable early.

That is down to the fact he hasn't played much tennis since Roland Garros and only had a brief time playing on the grass in Doubles action prior to the start of Wimbledon. In saying that, Novak Djokovic has become the top grass court player in the world in recent seasons and I think it is a huge challenge for anyone the faces him across the next fortnight.

First up is a British player that has been handed a Wild Card into the main draw- Jack Draper is 19 years old and is at a career best Ranking of 250 in the world, and he did win two matches at Queens Club in preparation for this Grand Slam before losing to Cameron Norrie in straight sets.

Jack Draper may feel he has nothing to lose, but it is going to need a monumental effort from him to make this a competitive First Round match. That means serving at his very best, but Draper has only held in 78% of service games played on the grass over the last month and now has to deal with what many will consider to be the greatest return player in the history of tennis.

Winning in dominant fashion to cover spreads like this one is not easy on a grass court and with the match potentially being played under the roof it will be a big spread for Novak Djokovic to overcome. However, I do think the Serb is playing at such a level and with such a confidence that he can move through the gears and wear down a young player that has simply not been asked to play at the level he will need for as long as he will need often enough in his career to this point.

In the last two Wimbledon titles won by Novak Djokovic, he would have covered this number of games in five of his eight wins before the Quarter Final and I think he can do the same here. As well as Jack Draper played at Queens, he was beaten pretty routinely by Cameron Norrie and now faces someone who can put his serve under intense pressure throughout the match which may eventually lead to a set or two being won with a couple of breaks of serve.

That should give Novak Djokovic every chance to open the defence of his back to back Wimbledon titles with a good looking win against a young opponent that can only use the experience positively in the years to come.


Roberto Bautista Agut - 5.5 games v John Millman: Two years ago Roberto Bautista Agut had to re-arrange his stag party that had been arranged for the second week of Wimbledon after an unexpected run to the Semi Final. He was eventually beaten in four sets by Novak Djokovic, but Roberto Bautista Agut has long been comfortable on the grass courts and will be hoping for another run deep into the second week of the tournament.

The build up to Wimbledon has not been idea with Roberto Bautista Agut compiling a 1-2 record on the grass, but his numbers have remained relatively decent. He would certainly like to get more out of the return of serve, but over the best of five set format there should be time for Bautista Agut to build his rhythm in this First Round match.

There will also be a comfort level in facing John Millman against whom Roberto Bautista Agut has a 5-1 head to head and has beaten him in both previous Grand Slam matches. None of those have been easy, but Bautista Agut can get his teeth into the return games and that will always make the Spaniard believe he has the edge in a match up like this one.

John Millman is a relatively comfortable grass court player, but he is only 2-2 in warm up matches and suffered a couple of one sided losses to Alex De Minaur and Lorenzo Sonego. While being fairly consistent on this surface, the Australian has struggled with his return aspect on the grass courts and I expect that to show up in this match against Roberto Bautista Agut.

In their previous matches Roberto Bautista Agut has held serve in 81% of service games played compared with John Millman's 60% mark and that is a real difference which should be magnified in the best of five set format. Their two previous Grand Slam meetings have both gone at least four sets, but in each one Roberto Bautista Agut has been leading 2-0 and in the six sets won by the Spaniard, John Millman has only managed to win as many as four games in one of those.

The feeling is that this is a match that will see some long rallies develop and it could be a grinder at times, but the superior serving of Roberto Bautista Agut should come to the fore. He is a decent returner too and I think Bautista Agut will find enough breaks to get over this handicap mark even if the match goes at least four sets.

I expect John Millman to battle as hard as he always does, but Roberto Bautista Agut can move through to the Second Round with a good win to open his Wimbledon account for 2021.


Andreas Seppi - 1.5 sets v Joao Sousa: Two veterans of the ATP Tour meet in the First Round at Wimbledon and both Andreas Seppi and Joao Sousa likely know they won't have too many more Grand Slams in them as form begins to let them down.

Working your way back into the main draw of Slam events through the Qualifiers is a tough task for players who have spent as long on the Tour as these two have, but Seppi is close to slipping out of the top 100 and Joao Sousa already has fallen.

Qualifying losses has become a painful lesson for Joao Sousa of late and he was struggling in pre-Wimbledon warm up events for any kind of consistency. He can actually serve pretty effectively on the grass courts which makes Joao Sousa potentially dangerous in this opening match, but the return of serve has been an issue and you can't underestimate what a loss of confidence can do to any player when the margins between wins and losses are as fine as they are in this sport.

Andreas Seppi will certainly be heading into the First Round match with more belief having Qualified for the Eastbourne main draw last week and finishing up in the Quarter Final. He did benefit by entering the draw as a Lucky Loser, but Seppi took advantage and in his latter years he has been efficient on the grass courts.

I do give him the edge on this surface against an opponent who has pushed Seppi in previous matches- it is Joao Sousa who leads the head to head 3-2, but Andreas Seppi has arguably been the better player in each of the last three matches between them and I think this is a surface on which he will feel he is the superior player.

While I think Joao Sousa has a slightly better serve of the two players, it is the Andreas Seppi return game that may make the difference in this match and I think it will be the veteran Italian who progresses. With the losses piling up behind Sousa over the last twelve months, I think Andreas Seppi is likely to win this match in three or four sets.


Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera-Kevin Anderson over 37.5 games: Three years ago Kevin Anderson reached the Wimbledon Final and he reached his career best World Ranking of number 5 in the days after that tournament concluded.

The years have been hard to Anderson since, especially the last eighteen months, as injuries have piled up and the big South African has dropped out of the top 100. It is going to be difficult for Kevin Anderson to turn things around at 35 years old, but he is trying to rediscover some of the form and confidence.

Kevin Anderson has produced a 2-3 record on the grass courts in the build up to Wimbledon and his return from injury has been a difficult one with a losing record over a 52 week period. However, the big serve is still a major weapon for Anderson who has held over 93% of the service games played on the grass over the last three weeks and he will feel his experience on the surface is one that cannot be ignored.

That experience is considerably greater than Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera brings to the table- before entering the Wimbledon Qualifiers, Vera had played a single grass court match as a professional and so his three wins over the last week will have been surprising, although ones that can build some confidence.

At 23 years old Barrios Vera is at a career high World Ranking, but he is still outside the top 200 and the reality is that it would be an upset if he was to win this match. However, the Chilean has been serving well in his three wins in the Qualifiers and that might give him every opportunity to win at least a set and push this match over the total game line set.

The Kevin Anderson return game is one that can be an issue and especially on the faster surfaces, but I think he may just edge through to the Second Round.

Ultimately I do think the veteran may need four sets to get this done and that should be enough to see the match surpass the total.

MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 9.5 Games @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Roberto Bautista Agut - 5.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Andreas Seppi - 1.5 Sets @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera-Kevin Anderson Over 37.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Marton Fucsovics + 1.5 Sets @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Arthur Rinderknech - 1.5 Sets @ 2.20 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Lloyd Harris - 1.5 Sets @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Liam Broady - 1.5 Sets @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Fabio Fognini - 1.5 Sets @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Alex De Minaur - 1.5 Sets @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Svetlana Kuznetsova - 4.5 Games @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Madison Keys - 5.5 Games @ 2.20 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Sofia Kenin - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Petra Martic - 4.5 Games @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Jessica Pegula - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Donna Vekic - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Karolina Pliskova - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Liudmila Samsonova - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Friday, 25 June 2021

Euro 2020 Last 16 Picks 2021 (June 26th-29th)

The path to Euro 2020 success has been laid out for the remaining sixteen teams in the tournament and there is no doubt that the Knock Out Stages are very much top loaded.

While Italy, Belgium, Portugal, France and Spain were all amongst the favourites before the Finals began, only one of those nations is going to be able to make the Euro 2020 Final at Wembley Stadium in just over two weeks time.

England, Germany and the Netherlands are the big names in the other half of the draw, but the likes of Wales, Denmark and Sweden will feel there is an opportunity for them too in what looks a much more open section.

Right now I would still have France down as the favourites with the most favourable of the Last 16 ties for those top nations, while Belgium are likely going to have to beat four top teams to take home a title the golden generation have been desperate to secure.

The winner of the England/Germany tie on Tuesday afternoon is going to be a big favourite to move through the draw to the Final, but I really like the way the Netherlands have approached things and they have winnable matches through to the Semi Final and made the inaugural Nations League Final which also has to be respected.

The tournament has been a little underwhelming to this point and I think that is down to a couple of factors- the event being held in multiple countries at a time when travelling for fans is restricted at best means the atmospheres have perhaps not matched previous tournaments, and the pandemic itself has had a huge impact as to the way fans approach watching these matches at home too.

There is also a lack of danger in the early stages of the tournament with only eight of the twenty-four teams playing in the European Finals exiting before the Knock Out Stages. That removes some of the intensity of the Group Stage and I would not be surprised if this is a competition that is expanded to thirty-two teams before the end of this decade to try and increase the importance of the Groups, even if the competition itself would be diluted significantly.

UEFA won't be too concerned about that knowing the financial rewards that will come with a bigger tournament and it would make sense to do that in time for Euro 2028 when the World Cup is increased to forty-eight teams two years earlier.

The one country approach going forward should also reinvigorate the competition, while the Knock Out Rounds of the 2020 (2021?) edition could really spark the entire event. There are some big matches in the Last 16 and with the top teams likely moving through there could be some huge fixtures to be played before a winner is decided.

England have a very good chance of ending a long wait for success, but I still lean towards France who have been pretty quiet in the Group Stages of Euro 2016 and 2018 World Cup before turning on the style in the Knock Out Rounds. A similar trend could see France blitz through the Knock Out Stages and become European Champions two years after taking over the world.


The Group Stages have been pretty decent for the Euro 2020 Picks I have been making, but things intensify in the Knock Out Rounds and that could lead to some tighter contests. I certainly think that could be the case as the tournament moves on, but the Last 16 draw looks a good one and I am hoping the entertainment value will rocket upwards.


Saturday 26th June
Wales vs Denmark Pick: The tragic Christian Eriksen situation played a major part in Denmark's opening loss to Finland, but the squad has rallied together after their friend and team-mate was considered over the bump and looking like he will be put on a road to recovery.

The inspired Danes have dominated their last two Group games, but they couldn't hold on against Belgium and so needed to beat the Russians at home. The second of those games was even more impressive from Denmark who hammered Russia 4-1 in Copenhagen and will now travel to Amsterdam in good form and with some real momentum behind them.

Before the tournament I did suggest Denmark could be a dark horse and they have been given the right draw with a Last 16 tie against Wales followed by a Quarter Final against the winner of the Netherlands-Czech Republic fixture.

Christian Eriksen will be a loss for any team, but Denmark have created a lot of chances in the last couple of games while they have continued to defend pretty well. A lack of clean sheets may suggest otherwise, but Denmark were punished by Belgium in one game despite having the better of the overall game, while Russia needed a Penalty to break through this defence.

Players like Gareth Bale and Aaron Ramsey will help Wales carry a threat and they are in a position where some fans may feel only matching the Semi Final run of 2016 will be considered a positive tournament from here. The players are perhaps more realistic and understand the challenges ahead, but in Bale and Ramsey there are match winners in the Wales ranks that will make them dangerous.

Wales have played well in the tournament, but I think Denmark represent another level from the likes of Turkey and Switzerland. In only the fixture against Turkey have Wales really been deserving of the result they have obtained, but they were a little fortunate against Switzerland and Denmark are arguably better than both of those nations.

Denmark hold the mental edge having beaten Wales twice in the 2018/19 Nations League, while the momentum is also hard to shift behind the favourites for this Last 16 tie.

I imagine Robert Page will pick a team that looks to be solid at the back and try and hit Denmark on the counter, but the latter have been a better team than Wales in this tournament and I think that eventually shows up. The first goal is going to be crucial for both teams, but I do think Denmark are playing with the positivity and confidence that suggests they will have the better of this game and they can win in the ninety minutes scheduled.


Italy vs Austria Pick: You never want to peak too early in a tournament and that has to be the only worry for Italy fans that will be proud of their national team once again after the hugely embarrassing failure to even Qualify for the 2018 World Cup.

Not many would have seriously believed Italy can win Euro 2020, but the development of the national team will be a project that may reap rewards in the years ahead and for that Roberto Mancini will be much admired.

His team have played attacking, modern football but without losing the Italian identity of being strong in defence and that has played out in the Group Stage where Italy have scored seven goals and kept clean sheets against Turkey, Switzerland and Wales. Even a much changed team in the final Group game were comfortable against the Welsh and the Last 16 tie looks like one that Italy should be very happy with.

Bigger challenges are going to come in the heavy loaded top half of the draw and with that in mind Giorgio Chiellini is unlikely to be risked in this tie. The Italians will feel they can contain an Austria team that were well beaten by the Netherlands in the Group Stage in Amsterdam, but they will also have to respect the fact they finished 2nd in Group C.

I am not convinced that was the toughest section out there and Austria will have to defend a lot better than what we saw from them in their defeat to the Netherlands. On another day the margin would have been much greater than the 2-0 final score suggested and I do think Italy are the kind of team who could be rampant if there is any kind of repeat of that performance from Austria.

Finding a way to challenge an Italy team that have kept eleven clean sheets in eleven straight wins is a huge task for Austria who were crushed 0-4 by Denmark in a World Cup Qualifier in March. The manager likes his team to be a little more proactive on the attacking side of things, but that leaves Austria open at times and Italy have shown they can score plenty of goals with those being provided from players throughout the squad.

Before the 1-0 win over Wales, Italy had scored at least twice in ten straight wins, but it was a much changed team that saw that run come to an end. I think there is every chance Italy will at least begin a new trend of that many goals being scored in this Last 16 tie and I think that will be enough to see them past Austria and take their place in what is likely to be a huge Quarter Final next Friday evening.


Sunday 27th June
Netherlands vs Czech Republic Pick: The draw for the Knock Out Rounds of the Euro 2020 tournament looks extremely top loaded and there is a big opportunity for a big run for one of the dark horses to open the event.

The Netherlands and Czech Republic have both previously had huge successes in this continental competition and the current squads will sense there is a big opportunity in front of them. The winner will certainly believe they are favourites to beat whoever they face in the Quarter Final and once you get into the final four of any competition there has to be a real belief that something special can occur.

It would be a huge return to major international tournament events for the Netherlands who missed out on Euro 2016 and the 2018 World Cup and they haven't really put a foot wrong in the tournament so far. Granted all of those games were home games in Amsterdam and now they have to travel to Budapest, but the Netherlands will be happy with their level and they have been creating a lot of chances.

There are questions about their defensive stability, especially when they will move onto tougher tests, but the Czech Republic have not really created as much in the final third as they would have liked. A Penalty got them on the board against Croatia and the Czech Republic failed to score against England with very little created in those games, while they also have to answer questions defensively considering the positions Scotland and England managed to get into against the Czechs.

It is a concern for the Czech Republic who will have to feel that the Netherlands are going to get on the front foot and cause problems for them.

The first goal will be important, but I do think there has been enough creativity shown by the Netherlands to feel they can get in front and then hurt the Czech Republic on the counter attack.

A poor record against this nation is a slight concern, but the Netherlands are a squad of players that may feel there is more to come from them despite the eight goals scored in the Group. I think they will cause plenty of problems for the Czech Republic in this Last 16 tie and the Netherlands can continue their run of scoring at least twice and extend that to 11 games on their way to another victory and a place in the Quarter Final of the Euro 2020 Finals.


Belgium vs Portugal Pick: Before a ball was kicked at Euro 2020 the likes of Belgium and Portugal were right amongst the favourites to win the tournament and it is something of a shame that one of these nations will be exiting the event on Sunday.

Both teams are in the loaded top half of the draw and whoever is able to get through to the Final is going to have to beat some very good teams to do that.

Belgium and Portugal cannot look too far ahead and both Roberto Martinez and Fernando Santos will know how tough the task is to win this Last 16 tie. The two teams have tremendous talent littered through the squads and Romelu Lukaku and Cristiano Ronaldo are in fine form which will give Belgium and Portugal plenty of confidence they can find the goals to secure passage through to the next Round.

The narrow favourites are Belgium who have won all three Group games, while Portugal secured four points in their own section. However, it should be pointed out that Belgium had a much more comfortable Group compared with Portugal and they will have to be a lot better than they were in their narrow win over Denmark to win a game like this one.

Belgium have been creating chances though and they have players like Kevin De Bruyne and Lukaku who will feel they can hurt this Portugal defence. Five years ago Portugal won the Euro 2016 title with a strong defensive effort, but they have conceded six goals in a couple of games against Germany and France and those teams did create some good chances in those fixtures against the Portuguese.

That will be encouragement for Belgium who have a manager that will want his team to get forward and score goals and they have managed to do that in 33 consecutive fixtures. It is difficult to imagine those drying up here, but an ageing Belgian defence is vulnerable to the speed and quality that Portugal have in the final third and I do think that makes it an intriguing fixture.

While Portugal have given up some big chances in their last couple of games, they have scored at least twice in each fixture played at the Euro 2020 Finals. This is a team that has created chances and quick feet from their wide players have also forced teams to make mistakes and give away Penalties, something an ageing Belgium backline will have to be wary of.

I do think both teams will score in normal time, but this feels like it could develop into a very attacking game considering the approach we are likely to see from Belgium. That should leave spaces for Portugal too and I think there will be at least three goals shared out considering the performances we have seen from both teams so far in the tournament.

Picking a winner is not easy and I do think it is going to come down to which of Lukaku or Ronaldo is most clinical on the day.

I won't pick which way it goes, but will look for at least three goals to be shared out before that winner is decided.


Monday 28th June
Croatia vs Spain Pick: In recent times both Croatia and Spain have had considerable success on the international stage, but the feeling is that both of these teams are in transition at the moment.

While a smaller nation like Croatia are unlikely to produce a team like the one that reached the World Cup Final in 2018 any time soon, they have historically produced some very good sides. Since that World Cup key players have moved on and they are still heavily reliant on the likes of Luka Modric and Ivan Perisic, but Croatia have struggled for consistency in the final third through their opening Group fixtures.

It is a concern for them against a Spanish team that still likes to get the ball down and play and who are fresh off a big win over Slovakia. Despite that, there is still a feeling that Spain lack the quality needed in the final third to really go on and win this tournament, although you do have to respect a team that can create as many strong chances as Spain have so far in this tournament.

Both of these teams will like to control the ball and play the game at their own tempo, and I do think it will be a fixture that is competitive throughout. However, it is Spain who have looked more capable of creating a consistency of chances and they do have enough in the final third to believe they can earn a narrow victory in this Last 16 tie.

Spain do have to overcome some mental hurdles- since winning Euro 2012, Spain have not won a Knock Out tie at any of the next three major international tournaments, while Croatia are plenty experienced after working their way through to the World Cup Final three years ago.

That is a concern for Luis Enrique and his team, but I think Spain will do just enough to edge past an opponent that have perhaps hit their peak to reach the Knock Out Rounds.


France vs Switzerland Pick: While Germany will head to London to take on England and Portugal will be travelling to Seville to play Belgium, France have been rewarded for winning the 'Group of Death' with a fixture against Switzerland in Bucharest.

This is the 'easiest' of the fixtures the three teams coming out of Group F will be facing, but France can't take anything for granted. Back to back draws has dented some of the early momentum picked up in their win over Germany in Munich and Didier Deschamps will be looking for more from his team who have looked good at times, but have yet to really stamp their authority on this tournament.

They do have a chance to make a statement when hosting a Switzerland team that needed a special Xherdan Shaqiri performance to beat Turkey and move through to the Last 16 as one of the best third place finishers. A change in approach has seen Switzerland try and get on the front foot, but they may return to type in this fixture knowing how dangerous their opponents can be.

An attacking approach saw Switzerland exposed by Italy in Rome in a 3-0 loss in the Group Stage, but it may be their best bet to try and upset the odds. We have yet to see France defend as well as they would like, but this is a team that can create chances and will see the Switzerland defence as one that is more vulnerable than it has been in recent years.

France have some very strong attacking talent and they have been creating plenty of chances in their last couple of games. They could also be very dangerous on the counter attack if France get their noses in front and this is a team that has scored plenty of goals in Knock Out ties at Euro 2016 and the 2018 World Cup.

I would not be that surprised if the Swiss look to frustrate and try and hit France on the counter themselves, but this France team is full of quality. We have yet to really see them hit their stride, but France have not really performed that strongly in each of the last two Group Stages in 2016 and 2018 before really turning it on in the attacking third in the Knock Out Rounds.

They should be too good for a Switzerland team that were overwhelmed by Italy in Rome and I think France win a game that features at least two goals on the night.


Tuesday 29th June
England vs Germany Pick: All anyone in England would have been hearing for a few days is how it would be better for the national team to avoid winning Group D and give themselves the best path through to the Euro 2020 Final.

That was before the 1-0 win over the Czech Republic which earned England top spot in their own section and the irony is that those calling for anything else would have been seriously wrong. Croatia face Spain and the Czech Republic face the Netherlands, but England have the benefit of hosting this Last 16 tie against old rivals Germany and the winner of this tie will be a considerable favourite to be playing in the Final of the Euro 2020 in a couple of Sundays time.

Winning Group D did mean England would have a tough test, but it was only a late Germany equaliser on Wednesday that prevented this being a home game against Hungary. Instead it is Germany who took 2nd place in Group F, but this is a team filled with inconsistencies and one that is vulnerable to the speed and counter attacking ability England play with.

Joachim Low's men will try and get forward and pressure an England defence which has kept five clean sheets in a row. Germany will certainly feel they can have some successes knowing the chances that Scotland created at Wembley Stadium and especially when you think of the opportunities that Germany have created in their opening three Group games.

All were played in Munich, but Germany have won 6 of their last 8 away competitive fixtures and they will feel they have plenty of attacking quality to hurt England.

This not a vintage Germany team, but they are one that has to be respected after seeing the way they tore through Portugal. They had enough chances to beat Hungary and earn a draw with France too and much is going to depend on what side of the bed the players get out of on Tuesday.

England will likely play the way they have been which is to focus on the defensive side of things and hope they can show enough quality to break down their opponents. The performances in the Nations League is some concern when England have come up against better opponents, but Germany look vulnerable too and I think an early goal will really open up this Last 16 tie.

There is pressure on both sets of players who will recognise the opportunity in front of them if they can win this tie, but Germany as an underdog will feel they have 'nothing to lose'. That makes them dangerous, but the style should also leave spaces for England to exploit and I would not be surprised if this is a high-scoring game between old rivals.

Games between England and Germany have historically been tight and competitive affairs, but the visitors have shown their best form of defence is to get forward and try and overwhelm opponents. Goals have been flowing in the last couple of matches, but defensively England will feel this German team is very exploitable to pacy attacks and goals look like they will be on the menu.

Having home advantage should give England enough of an edge to work their way past Germany here, but it might be a more enjoyable game for the neutrals than those invested in either nation.


Sweden vs Ukraine Pick: There will be fans of both of these nations that will already feel disrespected by the likes of England and Germany essentially speaking about their chances of reaching the Final of the Euro 2020 as long as they are able to make it through to the Quarter Final out of that Last 16 tie.

That isn't a complete disrespect to Sweden and Ukraine, but neither of these teams were really expected to contend at the tournament and yet they are on the brink of a Quarter Final. Sweden will have reached back to back major tournament Quarter Finals which would be remarkable considering it has happened in the years since Zlatan Ibrahimovic has retired and missed out.

Injury prevented Ibrahimovic playing in Euro 2020, but Sweden's squad have rallied together without their talisman and this is a team that is much greater than the sum of their parts. Beating out Spain and Poland to win this Group is no mean feat and they will be heading into the Last 16 tie with nothing to lose.

However, there is some sense of expectation around this tie which will be a new element for Sweden to deal with. They may not be big favourites, but they are favourites to beat a Ukraine team that had a negative goal difference and lost two of their three Group games and were still able to make it through to the Last 16 as one of the best third place finishers.

Ukraine had some expectations around them to have a good tournament, but they haven't played as well as they would have liked in the defeats to Netherlands and Austria. Getting through gives them another chance, but Ukraine's confidence has to be dented by those losses and the manner in which they were beaten with both Holland and Austria creating plenty of really good chances.

Andriy Shevchenko wants Ukraine to play on the front foot, but they have not been as creative as they would have liked and this is a team that has struggled for goals. They scored twice against North Macedonia, but one of those was a Penalty and Ukraine also fought back to 2-2 against the Netherlands thanks to two special finishes, but over the last twelve months it has been a real issue for them in the final third.

Before Euro 2020 began, Ukraine beat Cyprus 4-0 in a friendly to snap a run of 12 games in which they had failed to score more than a single goal. The lack of chances created in the games with the Netherlands and Austria are thus a concern and I am not sure they will get much change out of Sweden despite the fact that this team has not been as watertight at the back as they would have liked.

Sweden have given up a huge amount of chances in their Group games with Spain and Poland and I do think better teams will take advantage of that as the Euro 2020 tournament continues, but I am not convinced Ukraine will be able to do the same. And as poor as Sweden have looked at times at the back, they have been creating chances in all of their games and I think that is where they have a narrow edge over this Last 16 opponent in what looks one of the weaker ties to come at this Stage of the tournament.

Extra Time would not be a massive surprise considering the limitations of both of these teams, but I think Sweden are the overall better team and backing them to Qualify for the Last Eight makes the most appeal.

MY PICKS: Denmark to Win @ 1.85 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Italy to Win & Over 1 Total Goals @ 1.86 Bet365 (2 Units)
Netherlands to Win & Over 1 Total Goals @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
Belgium-Portugal Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Spain to Win & Under 4 Total Goals @ 2.20 Bet365 (2 Units)
France to Win & Over 1 Total Goals @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
England-Germany Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Sweden to Qualify @ 1.72 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Group Stage: 21-15, + 11.96 Units (71 Units Staked, + 16.85% Yield)
Match Day 3: 9-3, + 12.40 Units (23 Units Staked, + 53.91% Yield)
Match Day 2: 5-7, - 3.54 Units (24 Units Staked, - 14.75% Yield)
Match Day 1: 7-5, + 3.10 Units (24 Units Staked, + 12.92% Yield)

Sunday, 20 June 2021

Euro 2020 Match Day 3 Group Picks 2021 (June 20th-23rd)

There may be four third place finishers making it through to the Last 16 of the Euro 2020 Finals, but it is still surprising to see that twenty-three of the twenty-four teams taking part still having an opportunity to make it through.

Only North Macedonia have officially been eliminated and only the Netherlands have guaranteed themselves as Group Winners.

With that in mind, the final round of Group games should have plenty on the line for all of the teams involved and there should be plenty of twists and turns to come. Things will clear up by Monday evening when three Groups are completed, but teams are still jockeying for position and there are some good looking matches to come.


Sunday 20th June
Italy vs Wales Pick: Two wins from two Group games will have won the section for many teams, but Italy still have a bit of work to do to make sure they leave Rome as Group A Winners.

Avoiding defeat will be good enough to do that and it may be a result that suits both Italy and their opponents Wales who have almost certainly secured 2nd place in the Group.

Roberto Mancini could make some changes to give some of the other squad members an opportunity, but the manager would also like to keep the momentum behind his team and I would not be surprised if the Italians put another win on the board.

Wales have played well in the tournament and the pace on the counter attack will worry an Italian team that can lack some legs at the back. However, Robert Page and his men may feel the best approach is to contain their hosts and avoid a big defeat which should be good enough for 2nd place as long as Switzerland don't batter Turkey in the other game in the Group.

The edge is with Wales though and they have put in a lot of work to secure their place in the Last 16 in all likelihood.

They do pose a threat on the break and the likes of Gareth Bale and Aaron Ramsey are playing well, but I think Italy may just have enough to break them down and secure a narrow win. Another clean sheet would not be a massive surprise and I would not be massively surprised if both teams slow down towards the end of this fixture with Knock Out matches to come later in the week.


Turkey vs Switzerland Pick: After failing to win any of the four Group games these two nations have combined to play for, the situation means both Turkey and Switzerland are in a precarious position in the tournament.

They meet in Baku on Sunday and both teams need to win the game and hope that is good enough to take them through to the next Round.

Turkey are under more pressure having lost both Group games and a win may not be enough considering the awful goal difference- they don't just need to win, but likely need to win big and that means an attacking approach has to be taken to this fixture.

They have created chances, but Turkey have been poor in the final third and they need to show better composure if they are going to have any chance of Qualifying.

Switzerland have things much simpler- if they win they move onto four points and that should be enough to take them through. They were decent against Wales and deserved more than a point, but Switzerland were awful in Rome and the travel back to Baku does not favour them at all.

I do think they will cause Turkey problems considering what we have seen defensively from the Turks, but this could develop into an open game and especially if Turkey score first. Goals have been an issue for both of these teams in this tournament, but this should be a more open encounter and I think at least three goals will be shared out.


Monday 21st June
North Macedonia vs Netherlands Pick: Beating both Ukraine and Austria and scoring five goals has given the Netherlands fans hopes of a very strong Finals to come. They have already won Group C and so should be rewarded with a good looking Last 16 match and the draw could easily open up for the Netherlands with the way the opening fixtures have gone.

Having secured all they have wanted, Frank de Boer could easily make changes to his team, but there is almost a full week before Holland will play again and so he won't want to lose some of the momentum that has been earned.

They could really go into the Last 16 with a heap of momentum as the Netherlands take on eliminated North Macedonia.

The latter have shown they came through the weakest of the Play Off paths into the Euro Finals and they have looked markedly weaker than both Ukraine and Austria and now face the best team in the section. North Macedonia have nothing to lose so they could be dangerous, but defensively they have looked off the pace and teams have created plenty of chances against them.

I do think the Netherlands will be found out later in the tournament, especially as their attack and defence look a little light, but for now they should be comfortable and I think they win this game pretty comfortably.

Momentum can be so important to teams and the Netherlands can go into the Last 16 with three wins behind them. I don't think there will be wholesale changes, although a few of the squad could be given an opportunity, and I think the depth will be enough to see off North Macedonia by a couple of goals on the day.


Ukraine vs Austria Pick: A point would likely be good enough to take both Ukraine and Austria through to the Last 16.

The layers clearly believe the two teams are more than aware of that being the potential outcome of this fixture and the draw is actually trading at odds on.

You can't really argue with the theory and I do think there will be a temptation for both of these teams to not take too many risks.

It is not often you see the draw at the prices they are for this one, but I think it is a risky play. Instead, a small interest on there being 'no goalscorer' might be the best approach as you can see both Ukraine and Austria perhaps easing off if this game is level with half an hour left, but also covers the chance of an own goal breaking the deadlock.

There might not be a lot of reason for either team to commit to attack in this one and both may shake hands on finishing 2nd and 3rd and moving through to a Last 16 tie over the next weekend.


Finland vs Belgium Pick: Only one team has managed to come from behind and win a game at Euro 2020 and Belgium's win over Denmark has taken them through to the Last 16. Avoiding defeat will be enough to take them through as Group Winners, but Roberto Martinez likes his Belgium team to play with attacking intent and even with some changes I do think they will be too good for this opponent.

They should give the likes of Kevin De Bruyne and Eden Hazard more minutes to try and get those key players up to speed before the Knock Out Rounds begin, and Belgium have shown they have some depth when crushing Belarus 8-0 in a World Cup Qualifier in March.

Roberto Martinez is taking his team back to St Petersburg and the travel is an issue, but Belgium have momentum and five goals in two Group games has given them a boost.

They will be facing a Finland team who likely still need a point to take them through to the Last 16.

Finland work hard and will give it a go, but they are not the best defensively and you do have to worry about them if they go chasing this game. That has to be a fear for the Finnish, although a narrow defeat may not prevent them going through to the Last 16 depending what happens in the other game.

Even with that in mind, it will be difficult to contain this Belgium team despite the likelihood of one or two changes to be made to freshen up the starting line up.

A comfortable win for one of the favourites looks the most likely outcome of this final Group game.


Russia vs Denmark Pick: The Christian Eriksen incident has seriously hurt the Denmark chances at this Euro 2020, but there is still an outside chance they can work their way through to the Last 16.

Two defeats have been costly for other teams around the tournament, but Denmark are in a weak section and a win by a couple of goals may see them through as 2nd place as long as Finland are not able to avoid defeat against Belgium.

One of the stronger third place finishes will also be within Denmark's grasp with a big win and they have played well enough to earn more than what they have in this Group so far. This is a team that has been creating chances and they will believe home advantage could be the key in this final Group game against a Russia team that has been a mixed bag.

Despite playing both games at home previously, Russia still need a positive result to earn their place in the next Round and a defeat would likely see them exiting the tournament. That puts some pressure on them and travelling has usually been a weakness for this team.

It could be a fairly open game with both teams chasing the points and I think there will be goals involved.

However, I think Denmark have been very unfortunate in this tournament so far and they may just find one big performance which helps them past this opponent and give them every chance to Qualify for the Last 16. Some eyes and ears will be looking at the game at St Petersburg, but Denmark have to focus on themselves and that means winning this game.

I think they can do that.


Tuesday 22nd June
Croatia vs Scotland Pick: The situation could not be clearer for Croatia and Scotland when they meet in the final Group games on Tuesday evening- both have a single point from the two games played so far and a draw would likely mean both are going to be exiting the Euro 2020 Finals.

A win or bust frame of mind should mean an open fixture develops at some point and the big question for both managers is whether their teams have enough goals to find a victory.

Scotland have yet to score at Euro 2020, but they have created some wonderful chances and poor finishing has really let them down. On another night they would have earned 6 points from their two games played, but Scotland's poor finishing has proved costly and they are under pressure to deliver.

Che Adams is a Premier League player with Southampton, but he has long been someone who has underperformed when it comes to conversion rates and Scotland are going to be under pressure to be much better in the final third. This Croatia team is experienced at the back, but they are an ageing team and Scotland should have enough to create chances against them.

Croatia have also struggled in legitimate away games and that has to be an encouragement for Scotland, although this is a nation that has historically found a way to find a glorious defeat from strong positions.

Teams have created chances against Scotland and I do think Croatia will be able to do that even if they are not as strong as they once were in the forward areas. They have to take risks and that means increasing the intensity of the performance, while an early goal could really open this fixture up completely.

1-1 means nothing to either team and I think that has to mean attacking players will be used and spaces could open up as this fixture hits the 70th minute mark and further along.

It is difficult to back these teams to be clinical in front of goal considering what we have seen from them in this tournament, but both Scotland and Croatia can create chances in front of goal. If a player or two can just show the composure needed, one of the teams may find the three points they need to progress and it could come from a relatively high-scoring fixture to round out what has been a low-scoring Group.


Czech Republic vs England Pick: When you plan out the draw before a tournament ball has been played it can be easy to get carried away by the possibilities and for many winning Group D would be a bad decision as it would mean facing either Germany/France/Portugal in the Second Round.

It is with that in mind that many felt finishing 2nd would be a better long-term plan for a team and I think that is influencing the odds for this fixture.

England can go through as 2nd place in the Group if they don't win this fixture and you can understand why some think playing out a draw would suit both teams. The Czech Republic's aims are to get through to the Knock Out Stage and that would guarantee they do that, while England would likely be pretty happy even if it means leaving Wembley Stadium until the Semi Final.

A weaker path helped England reach the World Cup Semi Final three years ago so this is something that would be in mind. Obviously it won't be mentioned by the management, but I also think Gareth Southgate needs a much better performance from his team than the one produced in the draw with Scotland.

It is hard to know what kind of desire England have- they are a big price if they were definitely going to play for the win, but you do wonder if that is going to be high on the agenda throughout this fixture.

What England have done of late is not give up too many goals and that may be underlined in this fixture. The Czech Republic have not exactly created a lot of chances in their opening two games and I think England can largely contain their threat, although England will have to be much better in the final third to break down a team that has overachieved defensively considering the chances they have allowed.

In usual circumstances England would look a massive price as I have said, but you can't really know for sure what they are thinking and whether playing for 2nd is the best bet for them.

In all likelihood a point suits both teams and I would not be surprised if one of the teams fails to find the net in what could be a potentially another uninspiring fixture in this Group.


Wednesday 23rd June
Slovakia vs Spain Pick: One of the big disappointments at the Euro 2020 Finals so far has to be Spain, although this is a team that has just lacked a clinical touch rather than totally underachieving.

Unfortunately it is a big part of football to find a way to convert chances into goals and Luis Enrique may make more changes in a bid to lift his team. A missed Penalty against Poland means Spain are almost certainly going to need to win this game to have any chance of making it through to the Last 16.

Draws with Sweden and Poland have come about through poor finishing, but Spain do finish up with the weakest team in the section.

Slovakia have three points on the board and another may be good enough to take them through to the Last 16, but they have not really been as strong as they would have liked. A lack of goals was a concern before the Finals began and Slovakia have created very little so far, which should be encouraging for the Spain fans that have been vocal in their disgust with the results so far.

Defensively Spain have not been at their best and I do think that will encourage their visitors, but I do think Spain will have the edge in the match. A narrow defeat for Slovakia may not be the worst result when the entire Group Stage shakes out, but that may be the best they can hope for against a Spain team that are surely going to punish someone soon.


Sweden vs Poland Pick: The layers have placed Poland as the favourites for this final Group game because they 'need' to win, but I think that offers up an opportunity to oppose them here.

The draw with Spain was a positive result, but Slovakia's win over Poland has put them in a difficult spot and a draw is likely going to mean elimination. They will have to take risks and Poland have a player in Robert Lewandowski that has proven himself a lethal finisher in the top European Leagues, but you can't discount the motivation that Sweden may have.

A defeat coupled with a Spain win would mean Sweden are going to be hoping to be one of the best third place finishers and that would also mean a very difficult Last 16 tie. However, a win and they can top the Group which means facing a third place team in the next Round and that would present Sweden a real chance to reach the Quarter Final of back to back major international tournaments.

The Swedes defend well enough to frustrate Poland and I do think they have some pace and quality in the final third which could see them find a way to secure a positive result. If Poland begin to chase, who would discount a Swedish counter attack to win the Group and I certainly think they are being disrespected as the slight underdog in this match.

Sweden have arguably looked better than Poland in the tournament with a solid base from which they can build. That is superior to Poland who do give up chances and have conceded three goals in two Group games and I think Sweden may be the surprising Group E Winners.

A draw would likely mean things coming down to goal difference assuming Spain finally get things right, but Sweden should be motivated to try and win this game and the Group. With an opponent that may have to take risks in front of them, much could come down to how effective Sweden are on the counter attack late in the game and I think they will find a way to the victory when all is said and done.


Germany vs Hungary PickThe situation will be very clear to all of the teams in Group F by the time they kick off the final Group fixtures at Euro 2020 on Wednesday evening, but you do have to feel the permutations are more likely to affect the other fixture in the Group.

Both Germany and Hungary are much clearer in their ambitions and that is namely a win should be good enough to take them through to the Last 16.

The media may have been sharpening their knives in Germany on Saturday as the national team fell 0-1 behind against Portugal and the fear of a repeat of the World Cup 2018 failure certainly came to the fore. However, Joachim Low's team feel they are being underestimated and turned on the style in thumping the European Champions 4-2 and earn some vital momentum to take towards the Group Stage.

With France failing to win in Budapest, Germany have every chance of topping this section and they will be targeting one more win in Munich.

Germany have been a hard team to get a read on since the World Cup with inconsistent results and poor defensive performances holding them back. However, some of the younger players have provided an attacking spark and Germany have been scoring goals for fun and especially in home games which makes them very dangerous.

They created a lot of chances against Portugal and were in some promising positions against France which bodes well now they take on the weakest team in the Group.

Hungary showed resiliency in their 1-1 draw with France, but they have given up huge chances in both games played in the Group and those came in Budapest. Now they have to travel to Munich and I do think Hungary will struggle to contain their hosts and eventually will have to take risks to try and earn the positive result they need to have an opportunity to play in the Knock Out Rounds.

That could leave them exposed to a Germany team that does like to get forward and score goals and I think they can sign off at Munich with a big Group Stage win.

It wouldn't be that surprising if Hungary can cause problems of their own against a vulnerable German defence, but I don't think they will be able to contain their hosts. An early goal could really set Germany on their way in this one and I think they can cover what is perhaps the biggest Asian Handicap of the tournament so far.


Portugal vs France PickI am writing this out on Monday but the situation for both Portugal and France will be much clearer by the time this match kicks off on Wednesday evening.

While Portugal are not going to have a guaranteed place in the Last 16 of the Euro 2020 Tournament by then, they will know how many more points they need.

Assuming Hungary will not win in Munich, 3 points could be enough for Portugal if two of the following situations comes true: Finland lose to Belgium, Croatia and Scotland draw or Poland fail to beat Sweden.

Even then it would come down to goal difference if Portugal were to lose to France on Wednesday, but they have a positive one now and a narrow defeat may not prevent passage through to the Last 16.

It clouds the approach Portugal may take, although they will finish in the top two of the Group if they can win this game. The World Champions also have plenty of motivation knowing a win will top the section, and with the knowledge that a defeat may force France to need one of the best third place finisher spots and a potentially very difficult Last 16 tie.

The permutations can drive you mad at times, but the feeling is that both of these teams will not want to give too much away. Those permutations will be very clear by kick off, but the two Nations League meetings suggest this will be another tight fixture and I do think goals will be tough to find.

Portugal have looked good going forward, but the 4-2 loss to Germany may have spooked a manager who is more cautious than cavalier, while France have struggled to put a finishing touch to some of their football. Defensively the World Champions have looked pretty solid, and I do think you have to factor in that there have been two goals scored in the last 4 between these nations in normal time.

Backing one of the teams to fail to score is my suggestion, but I do think you should keep a real eye on how the other results are going. It could mean this fixture could potentially open up if news filters through that a team needs to chase a result, but it feels the pressure is all on the Portuguese before kick off regardless.

They showed how vulnerable they can be to the counter attack against Germany and this France team is more than capable of blowing past opponents. However, I think this is a fixture in which the two managers will be looking to set up to prevent the other team from picking up some steam and so it may be one where there is very little between them.

MY PICKS: Italy Win to Nil @ 2.20 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Turkey-Switzerland Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.80 William Hill (2 Units)
Netherlands - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.96 Bet365 (2 Units)
Ukraine-Austria No Goalscorer @ 5.50 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Belgium - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.05 Bet365 (2 Units)
Denmark to Win & Over 1 Total Goals @ 2.15 Bet365 (2 Units)
Croatia-Scotland Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Czech Republic-England Both Teams to Score- NO @ 1.72 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Spain Win to Nil @ 1.77 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Sweden 0 Asian Handicap @ 2.05 Bet365 (2 Units)
Germany - 2 Asian Handicap @ 1.89 Bet365 (2 Units)
Portugal-France Both Teams to Score- NO @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Match Day 2: 5-7, - 3.54 Units (24 Units Staked, - 14.75% Yield)
Match Day 1: 7-5, + 3.10 Units (24 Units Staked, + 12.92% Yield)