Injuries are already playing a big part in this post-season, as they do in every post-season, and that may change the entire outlook for teams. The likes of the Lakers and 76ers will be very keen to see how their top names respond to injuries, but the former are in more of a dogfight than the latter and may not have the same kind of time to see if their players respond to those concerns.
It is easy to make sweeping statements about a team and their potential after just a few days in the post-season picture, but the Conference Semi Finals should really start picking up the levels of the games and the competitiveness of those games.
The PlayOffs should become more entertaining as we get into this week as teams fight for their lives and you will be able to follow my selections from the remaining First Round PlayOff Games in this post.
Tuesday 1st June
Boston Celtics @ Brooklyn Nets Game 5 Pick: The poor overall performance in Game 3 was punished, but the Brooklyn Nets righted the ship in their comfortable Game 4 victory on the road. The 3-1 lead in the First Round Series makes the Nets strong favourites to move past the Boston Celtics, but they don't want to prolong this Series and that means avoiding having to go back to Boston for a Game 6.
The Milwaukee Bucks have already made their way through to the Eastern Conference Semi Finals and they have been resting since Saturday after sweeping the Miami Heat. That does put some pressure on the Brooklyn Nets who have had to wait a few more days, and Steve Nash will like to see his team come out with the focus to get the job done.
Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving and James Harden have had big Series already, but they might have been extra motivated after Irving was involved in a fan altercation in Game 3. Kyrie Irving will admit it was not his best game, but he was back in top form in Game 4 and Brooklyn showed they can still match up really well with the Boston Celtics as long as they show a semblance of Defensive intensity.
Brad Stevens has seen enough from his Boston team to believe they can at least make Game 5 competitive and especially if Jayson Tatum continues to produce at the level he has been. However, Tatum cannot do it all on his own and it sounds like the Boston Celtics are going to be short-handed in this one with Kemba Walker likely to be on the sidelines.
Robert Williams is also a doubt and Jaylen Brown is out for the season which all adds up to another pressurised situation for the Boston Celtics. They don't have the home fans behind them to push them forward in this one either and I think the Nets have every chance to pull clear and cover what is a very big number.
The Nets have covered in their last eight as the home favourite and much will depend on how much the Boston Celtics believe they can still make this a competitive Series. At this point the feeling is that the Nets have landed the knock out blow in Game 4 while earning a comfortable road win, and Brooklyn should also be motivated knowing they want to get a few days of rest before their Semi Final Series with the Milwaukee Bucks begins.
This is a big spread, but the Nets have won their three games by 11, 22 and 15 point margins and I think they can do enough to cover this mark too.
Portland Trail Blazers @ Utah Jazz Game 5 Pick: This First Round Series looked a close one on paper and the first four games have seen the Portland Trail Blazers and Denver Nuggets level going into the final three games. The best of seven has become a best of three and each game played so far in this Series has been decided by which of the teams have been able to get hot from the field.
Only one of the games has ended with a margin of less than 14 points and it does mean you can back one of these teams in Game 5 with the confidence that the spread is unlikely to be a factor. However, it doesn't hurt when you believe the underdog may have the momentum after the Portland Trail Blazers crushed the Denver Nuggets by 20 points this past weekend.
It was a poor Game 4 effort from the Denver Nuggets who had won two in a row to move into a lead in the Series so you have to feel there will be adjustments made both in the schemes and in the attitude. Head Coach Michael Malone was highly critical of the effort his Nuggets players produced at both ends of the court and Nikola Jokic struggled to have the same kind of impact that he did in the first three games.
Portland could be thankful to their role players for making the difference in Game 4 after Damian Lillard struggled for consistency shooting the ball. You can't expect Lillard to have another sub-par game, but the Trail Blazers have to keep the ball moving and looking for the rest of the roster to maintain the standard set last time out if they are going to find a way past the short-handed Nuggets.
Jusuf Nurkic is a key player for Portland, but he did pick up a thumb injury even though it is not one that is likely to see him miss any playing time. He is the main Defender the Trail Blazers use on Jokic and avoiding foul trouble is key for Nurkic to at least try and limit the damage the star player for the Nuggets can do on the day.
Both teams should be well rested for what should be a pivotal Game 5, but the feeling is that Portland may still be the slightly superior team. It certainly feels like they have a more consistent roster in their current states and I think the Trail Blazers could secure a vital win on the road and try and wrap up the Series later this week at home.
Portland are 6-2 against the spread in the last eight between these teams and they are 8-2 against the spread in their last ten on the road.
Denver have shown their ability to make big plays at key times in this Series already and the likes of Michael Porter Jr and Austin Rivers have stepped up alongside Nikola Jokic to help the Nuggets through games. That has to be respected, but I think the Trail Blazers have a few more players that have been able to find some consistency shooting the ball and I think the underdog can earn a narrow win on the road in what may be the tightest game in the First Round so far.
Los Angeles Lakers @ Phoenix Suns Game 5 Pick: Injuries can be a huge part of the NBA PlayOffs and there have been a number of Series through the years that have turned when an ankle or an arm lands the wrong way. This First Round Series has been dominated by leading players picking up injuries that have swung the momentum one way and then the other and at the moment it feels like the Number 2 Seeded Phoenix Suns have the momentum with a return to their Home Court.
After dropping back to back games and with Chris Paul ailing, the Phoenix Suns looked like they were going to struggle to get things turned around. However, a couple of things have gone their way and the first of those is that Paul looks like he is feeling much better about his shoulder after producing his best game in the Series in the victory in Game 4 to level up the First Round.
Having Chris Paul back to his best will be a huge boost for a young Phoenix team that have really used the experience of the veteran Point Guard to help propel them forwards throughout the season. But another factor that looks to have gone in the favour of the Suns is the injury sustained by Anthony Davis which saw one of the Los Angeles Lakers' top players miss the second half in the defeat on Sunday.
Anthony Davis has missed considerable time all season and the latest injury opened up the paint for the Phoenix Suns who dominated inside. His status for Game 5 is questionable to say the least and it has led to the layers asking Phoenix to cover the biggest mark as a favourite that they have had to deal with in this First Round Series.
LeBron James has not been at his complete best in the last couple of games too and that builds the pressure on the defending Champions that now look the more vulnerable of the two teams playing out of Los Angeles. The Lakers will need James to produce one of his big PlayOff moments if they are going to regain the edge in the Series, but it is a big ask with the role players not really impacting the games as they would like and especially with Davis likely to be limited at best.
Phoenix will be glad to have had a couple of days of rest to give Chris Paul more of a chance to get even closer to full health, while they were boosted by Jae Crowder's performance. The Suns will be feeling the pressure of expectation and a young team that is not used to that spot is going to be difficult to trust, but they look to have rallied after the back to back losses.
Devin Booker can get hot from the field to lead Phoenix and having Chris Paul set his team up the right way gives the Suns the edge here.
The Suns are 4-1 against the spread in their last five as the home favourite which includes winning in Game 1 of this Series. I have to respect how well the Lakers have played after a straight up loss and LeBron James is very difficult to oppose in key PlayOff games, but I think the Suns have the edge overall now and I think they will be able to take a 3-2 lead to Los Angeles later this week with a win and a cover here.
Wednesday 2nd June
Washington Wizards @ Philadelphia 76ers Game 5 Pick: It is likely too late to turn this First Round Series around, but make no mistake the size of the injury to Joel Embiid is going to be instrumental in determining how far the Philadelphia 76ers are going to go in the PlayOffs this season.
Things were going smoothly for the 76ers- they had blown out the Washington Wizards in back to back games and had already moved into a healthy First Quarter lead as they looked to get the broomsticks out. All changed the moment Embiid went down clutching his knee though and he missed the majority of the remainder of the game once picking up the injury in the middle of the First Quarter.
We are yet to discover how long Joel Embiid is going to sit out, but the feeling is that his team-mates would have been distracted after the injury saw their star player leave the floor. A desperate Washington team rallied behind Russell Westbrook and Bradley Beal and that was enough to at least force a Game 5, although I expect the Philadelphia 76ers to be much more ready to compete even without Embiid in this one.
He will be a big miss and the mismatch that Joel Embiid has against this Washington Defensive unit was key to opening things up for other players in the rotation. That is almost impossible to replicate, but the 76ers will be likely to rally together to show they are still a team to be feared even if their top player has to sit out a couple of weeks.
Joel Embiid's injury is grabbing the headlines, but Washington have also lost a key performer in Davis Bertans and still have Westbrook a little hobbled. Those hurt the Wizards, while they are a team that have struggled Defensively throughout this Series and may just have a few issues dealing with a motivated home team looking to close out this First Round and earn some rest before the Eastern Conference Semi Finals begin.
Despite the issues the 76ers were dealing with, Washington only barely got over the line in Game 4 and I think the home team will be much more prepared to deal with being without Joel Embiid in this one.
That can make all the difference for a team who have responded to setbacks very positively all season and I think the home team and Number 1 Seed will close things out.
Atlanta Hawks @ New York Knicks Game 5 Pick: This has been a pretty chippy First Round Series and the trash talk continued between Game 4 and Game 5 in Clint Capela's last interview with the press. Talk of sending the New York Knicks to their vacations isn't the worst verbals you will hear in the NBA, but I have little doubt that the Madison Square Garden is going to be fired up as they look to help the Knicks stay alive.
A strong, productive season will give New York fans encouragement that the team is finally on the right path back to relevancy, but earning the Number 4 Seed may have raised expectations for this Series. The Knicks had swept the Atlanta Hawks in the regular season, but it has been a bad time for the key Offensive players to lose their touch on the court and back to back double digit defeats in 'The A' have put the Knicks in a 1-3 hole.
The Hawks will be very keen to wrap up the Series as soon as Wednesday evening so they can get a couple of days rest in the legs and also be ready to get right into it with what is expected to be the Philadelphia 76ers as the Semi Final opponents. If Joel Embiid is out or restricted, the Hawks should be keen to get that Series underway as soon as possible and try and get on top of the Number 1 Seed.
Both teams can close their respective Series on Wednesday, but the Hawks will only be worrying about their own performance having split two games in this Arena already. Atlanta have to be confident in their own levels after two comfortable wins at home which has been powered by a couple of strong runs in what has otherwise been competitive outings.
There is no doubt that the Hawks will feel they have more Offensive firepower than the New York Knicks and especially with Julius Randle continuing to have little impact on the Series. It has been a big season for Randle, but he has cooled off at the wrong time and the Knicks simply don't have enough options to make up for the lack of productivity of their leading scorer.
Encouragement for the Knicks has to be that Game 5 is being played in their own building and the Atlanta Hawks have simply not been as consistent on the road as they have in their own building. They have continued to play good Defensive basketball and you do have to believe that the Knicks just need a couple of players to come out shooting the ball with confidence to at least force this Series to move into a Game 6 back in Atlanta.
The Knicks have been much better in both home games played in this Series and they are once again a very narrow favourite.
An extra day of rest may not seem a lot, but the Knicks can prepare a little more and they had their chances to win both games played at Madison Square Garden. I have to expect the players have heard the Clint Capela comments which can only inspire New York overall and the Knicks have generally responded to losses in positive fashion while also being a good home favourite to back this season.
I do think Atlanta would love to silence Madison Square Garden and win this one on the road, but they have not been the same team away from their own Arena and it may be the case again in Game 5.
Memphis Grizzlies @ Utah Jazz Game 5 Pick: This has been a fun Series for the fans to enjoy, but ultimately the storyline has become the same ever since Donovan Mitchell returned for the Utah Jazz. He was missing for Game 1 which was stolen by the Memphis Grizzlies on the road, but Donovan Mitchell has returned and the Utah shooters have found their rhythm which has proven to be a little too much for the Grizzlies to cope with.
In each of the last three games the young Grizzlies have shown plenty of fight even when it looked like the games were beyond them and they have refused to let Utah coast to the line. However, in each one the shooting of the Jazz has pushed them clear and kept the Grizzlies at arm's distance down the stretch with Memphis perhaps over-reliant on their shooters continuing to knock down the shots.
As competitive as this First Round Series has been, the Utah Jazz have been pretty comfortable winners in each of the last three games and will be looking for the final blow to move through to the Western Conference Semi Finals. That will give the Jazz a little time to just rest the likes of a returning Mitchell, but Utah will also be able to move into the next Round full of confidence as the Number 1 Seed in the Western Conference.
Things may look a lot more open on this side of the bracket if the Los Angeles Lakers fall as well, but the Utah Jazz cannot look too far ahead as they try and show their doubters that they are able to take the next step forward. Donovan Mitchell is fuelled by that too and the Jazz look like they have a bit too much on both ends of the court for the Memphis Grizzlies.
I do like the Grizzlies and the future looks bright if they can build around the likes of Dillon Brooks and Ja Morant. This PlayOff Series will be a valuable learning experience for those two players who have shown they have the right mentality to compete at this level, but it is all about progress in the years ahead.
Neither will want to go out with a whimper and I expect a huge effort from the young Memphis stars, but they have just come up a little short so far in this Series. Both Brooks and Morant could have another big outing and perhaps steal one more on the road, but the Jazz are in rhythm and I think they will find the big shots landing to once again move clear and hold off any late rally.
As competitive as Memphis have been, they are now 1-4 against the spread in their last five as the underdog.
Utah have been a strong home favourite and I think they will have the motivation and the crowd to push them through to the Western Conference Semi Finals with another strong win.
Dallas Mavericks @ Los Angeles Clippers Game 5 Pick: At 0-2 down in this First Round Series following back to back home losses, the Los Angeles Clippers were being questioned once again about their Championship credentials. Last season they had been pushed by the Dallas Mavericks in the First Round of the PlayOffs before blowing a lead to lose to the Denver Nuggets, but those were played inside the NBA Bubble and there could be some excuses.
That is not the case in 2021 with Home Court now back in play so the Clippers had to know that their critics were sharpening their knives and ready to carve up this team.
No one inside the Clippers organisation were overly concerned by the performances or the score, but the pressure was on and the top two names on the roster have underlined their value. Both Paul George and Kawhi Leonard are putting strong PlayOff Series in the books and the Los Angeles Clippers have won back to back games in Dallas with the pressure now shifted to the underdog in what has become a best of three Series.
Injuries hurt the Mavericks in their 4-2 First Round defeat to the Los Angeles Clippers in 2020 and once again the fans will be listening to the reports and wondering whether the bug is ready to bite again. Luke Doncic was doubtful for Game 4 and he was clearly limited in his performance as the Los Angeles Clippers dominated to level the Series.
Like any star player, Luka Doncic refuses to blame his injury for his level of performance, but Head Coach Rick Carlisle admitted it is a concern. If Doncic's play-making abilities are restricted by the neck issues, the Mavericks have a very tough task to turn the momentum back in their favour and especially with the Clippers looking like they have righted themselves.
The concern for the Mavericks is that their role players have cooled down significantly from the opening two games, while the Clippers have made the adjustments to their Defensive schemes which have added to the pressure Dallas have been facing. Rick Carlisle does have slightly more time to make the adjustments to try and turn things back around, but I think the Mavericks might have let the Clippers off the hook now and I expect the favourites to keep their run going.
There are some solid trends favouring the Mavericks, but I can't shake off the feeling that Luka Doncic is battling through an injury that is limiting his impact. It may be all the Clippers need to get on top of their opponent again and become the first home team to cover in this Series.
Friday 4th June
Los Angeles Clippers @ Dallas Mavericks Game 6 Pick: Seven of the eight teams that will be playing in the NBA PlayOff Conference Semi Finals have been decided, but one First Round Series is yet to be completed.
The Dallas Mavericks have earned the narrow edge over the Los Angeles Clippers with a tight Game 5 going their way and meaning all five games in this Series have been won by the road team. Now Dallas have the chance to close the show and end interest in the NBA PlayOffs in the City of Angels who saw their Los Angeles Lakers exit in the First Round on Thursday.
Luka Doncic looked to be over his limitations in a huge Game 5 effort, but it was the Dallas role players who returned to the fore and made some big shots in the Fourth Quarter to edge past their favoured hosts. Those came after the Los Angeles Clippers not only rallied to within a point, but missed an easy layup which would have given them the lead with seconds remaining.
Both Paul George and Kawhi Leonard have had big Series, but the Clippers cannot afford to see George get into the foul trouble which plagued him in Game 5 as they look to see the Series return for one more game at the Staples Center. Some players stepped up for the Clippers in the absence of Paul George, but you need your best players on the court for as long as possible in elimination games as the Clippers look to avoid having to answer some big questions this off-season.
They have shown they can handle the intensity of road games in Dallas by winning here twice already in the Series and the adjustments have been made by the Clippers even when punched in the mouth early. Their top names have stepped up and the feeling is that this Game 6 will likely be decided on whether or not the Dallas role players can keep their hot shooting going.
Only an injury has even slowed down Luka Doncic a little and the Clippers must realise there isn't much they can do against the superstar for the Mavericks. However, if they can limit everyone else it is still a winning play for them and I do think Los Angeles will be able to bounce back from the disappointment of a couple of nights ago.
The Clippers have moved to an 8-2 record against the spread in their last ten visits to Dallas and I think Leonard and George will step up for the road team and force a Game 7 this weekend.
Sunday 6th June
Dallas Mavericks @ Los Angeles Clippers Game 7 Pick: The defending Champions from Los Angeles are out of the PlayOffs after losing a Game 6 contest in the Staples Center during the week and now the other team from the City of Angels returns home looking to avoid an elimination of their own. The Lakers were beaten by the Phoenix Suns here and the Los Angeles Clippers have lost all three home games in this First Round Series, but they are somehow still alive after winning a Game 6 of the road.
That victory over the Dallas Mavericks means for the first time in the NBA PlayOffs a road has won each of the first six games of a Series. It will certainly be something that could be on the mind of the Los Angeles Clippers players as they return home looking to progress to the Western Conference Semi Final where the Utah Jazz have patiently been waiting after winning their own Series pretty comfortably.
Neither the Clippers nor the Mavericks are going to be worrying about the Jazz as they continue to go back and forth in this Series. The top names have all had an impact in the First Round and it may come down to whether Kawhi Leonard or Luka Doncic are able to make enough plays to carry their team through to the next Round.
The role players will have an impact, but the feeling is that deep into the Fourth Quarter it will come down to Leonard versus Doncic and which of these players will take control.
It will be a tense game with elimination staring both Dallas and Los Angeles in the face and the tempo has certainly slowed down from the early games in the Series. Both Head Coaches have been successful at making the adjustments to at least contain the Offensive output of the other and it says a lot that 106 points has been good enough for a win in each of the last three games.
The layers have gotten on top of the total points line by dropping it several points from the lowest total set for any game in this Series, but I still feel it could be a touch too high.
There are some stars on the court that can suddenly get incredibly hot and carry this game over the total points line easily, but you can't ignore the fact that eight of the last ten between these teams has finished 'under' the line.
The 'under' is also 10-2 in the last twelve games in which Dallas have been set as a road underdog and I think they will be looking to just cool down the Los Angeles Clippers Offensively.
Picking a winner is not easy considering the up and down nature of this First Round Series, although I do lean to Los Angeles to finally hold onto serve on their Home Court. The Clippers have the more consistent performers, but they will also have to deal with the pressure of expectation and I think both the home team and the Dallas Mavericks will be looking for control of the tempo which can lead to a relatively low-scoring game.
MY PICKS: 01/06 Brooklyn Nets - 12.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
01/06 Portland Trail Blazers + 2 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
01/06 Phoenix Suns - 5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
02/06 Philadelphia 76ers - 6.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (1 Unit)
02/06 New York Knicks - 1.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (1 Unit)
02/06 Utah Jazz - 9.5 Points @ 1.97 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
02/06 Los Angeles Clippers - 7 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
04/06 Los Angeles Clippers - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
06/06 Los Angeles Clippers-Dallas Mavericks Under 210.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
First Round Update: 21-20, - 0.83 Units (41 Units Staked, - 2.02% Yield)
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