The French Open continues on Friday and we are into the Third Round action in both the Men's and Women's Tournaments being played in Paris.
The bottom halves of the draw may not house the favourite to win the titles next weekend, but I do think there are plenty of players involved that will feel they can go all the way.
The deeper we go into the French Open draw, the more competitive matches we tend to see and it could be a solid day of Tennis for the viewers.
Casper Ruud - 5.5 games v Alejandro Davidovich Fokina: A big opportunity has opened up for those players in the bottom half of the draw and someone is going to be playing in their first French Open Final a week on Sunday. The exit of Dominic Thiem in the First Round has been the key to that and the way the draw shaped out the two big favourites to win the title in Paris are both on the other side of the bracket.
There are a couple of other players who would really believe they can go all the way here, but one of the stand out names in the bottom half of the draw is Casper Ruud. The young Norwegian player has long produced his best tennis on the red dirt, but 2021 has been special up to this point with a title won in Geneva and two Semi Final runs in Monte Carlo and Madrid behind him.
Casper Ruud has continued the good form into the French Open and has been a relatively comfortable winner in both matches played so far this week. He seems to be enjoying the conditions and Ruud is capable of using his strong serving to build pressure on opponents and in the early Rounds of a Grand Slam it should be good enough for Casper Ruud to progress through to the second week.
He did that for the first time at the Australian Open earlier this season and I think that should mean Casper Ruud is capable of dealing with the pressure as the Grand Slam continues on Friday with the start of the Third Round. Playing against someone like Alejandro Davidovich Fokina is another challenge for Ruud with the Spanish player having a career best year so far as he has entered the top 50 of the World Rankings.
A tough Second Round win for Alejandro Davidovich Fokina may have sapped some of the energy that he will need for a match like this one, but it is early enough in the Slam to expect him to be ready to compete. He has been building a solid clay court season in 2021 and Davidovich Fokina has the return game that may give Casper Ruud something to think about, although the numbers have been dented a little bit when the Spaniard has faced a top 50 Ranked opponent on the clay.
This won't be an easy match for Casper Ruud, but you do have to think that he will be able to control enough rallies behind his own serve to put pressure on Alejandro Davidovich Fokina. The serve has been a key weapon for Ruud and he has an edge over Davidovich Fokina in that area of his tennis which is where he can perhaps find a way to win this match and move clear over the two and a half hours they are likely to spend on court.
The Casper Ruud return game has been strong when facing those players outside the top 20 of the World Rankings on this surface in 2021 and I expect that to show up here.
Fabio Fognini - 1.5 sets v Federico Delbonis: For a long time the Italian hopes would have rested heavily on the shoulders of Fabio Fognini, but the feeling is that the veteran can play his tennis much freer these days. The likes of Matteo Berrettini, Jannik Sinner and Lorenzo Musetti have earned some valuable headlines already this season and are the current and future of Italian tennis, but that should mean good news for Fabio Fognini.
He has been a comfortable winner in his first two matches and Fognini has yet to drop a set in Paris, but his tennis in 2021 has been inconsistent on the red dirt. That has prevented Fabio Fognini from really having the kind of impact he would have liked in any of the tournaments he has played, but the two wins here at the French Open have been impressive.
The feeling is that Fabio Fognini is performing well enough here to give Federico Delbonis plenty to think about and you can see why the older player is the favourite.
Federico Delbonis needed four sets to get past Radu Albot in the First Round, but was then pushed the distance by Pablo Andujar in the Second Round and the Argentinian needed to win the last two sets to progress to the Third Round. This has already been the best run Delbonis has had at the French Open, which is a surprise for someone who has always appreciated playing on the clay courts, while he will be playing in the Third Round for only the second time in his career and for the first time since the Australian Open in January 2016.
You can't discount the breakthrough tournament Federico Delbonis had at the Rome Masters last month when reaching the Quarter Final, but his lack of experience of winning big matches at Grand Slams and prolonging his stay in those tournaments is hard to ignore.
He has been beaten twice at Grand Slams by Fabio Fognini including here in Paris in 2019, although Federico Delbonis did beat Fabio Fognini in a Davis Cup tie on this surface.
Matches between the players have tended to be pretty competitive and the 4-3 lead for the Italian underlines the point, although he has won the last two against Delbonis. There have been slight edges for Fabio Fognini in those previous matches though and the feeling is that the Italian is fresher than his opponent in this one which can help him edge past Federico Delbonis in three or four sets.
I expect to see plenty of break points being created by both players and it will come down to the very small moments when those key points are played. Two years ago Fabio Fognini won those key points in a Second Round win here over Federico Delbonis and I think he has played well enough over the last week to think he can match that victory in 2021 too.
Alexander Zverev - 6.5 games v Laslo Djere: One of the big criticisms of Alexander Zverev has been his inability to really make 'easy' work of his early opponents in Grand Slams and it has largely resulted in him being very vulnerable in the second week of those Slams. He has reached the Final at the US Open last year, but Alexander Zverev has not been able to get past the Quarter Final in Paris despite what has been some confident results on the clay courts.
The same criticism can be hurled towards Zverev this season too having been pushed in both of his first two matches at the French Open, although it was very important for him to win the second of those in straight sets. In fact Alexander Zverev has won six sets in a row at the French Open without really looking in control to the level he would have liked.
Some of the reason for that may have been the opponents Alexander Zverev has faced and perhaps not taking them as seriously as he should have done. His own level will have to improve if the German is going to come through what looks an open bottom half of the draw, but I think Alexander Zverev will appreciate facing an opponent who he will know more about than he perhaps did about his last two here.
Laslo Djere had to come from 0-2 down in sets to see off his compatriot Miomir Kecmanovic in the Second Round and he has spent plenty of time on the courts already in Paris. In face the Serb has been on the court for over eight hours and you do have to wonder how much he will have left in the tank both physically and emotionally if he was to fall behind in this match and have to find the reserves to fight back against a higher Ranked opponent.
The wins are confidence boosting for Laslo Djere who reached the Final in Cagliari a couple of months ago before losing five matches in a row. He played well in Geneva, but it has been a challenge for Djere when he has gone up against top 50 Ranked opponents on the clay in 2021 and I do think he could find it tough to stay with Alexander Zverev in this Third Round match.
These two played a competitive, fun match against one another on the hard courts of Acapulco back in March, but Zverev came out as a relatively comfortable winner and I think this may be his most 'straight forward' win in the tournament so far.
Laslo Djere should be competitive early, but I would not be surprised if fatigue kicks in if he falls a set or two behind and that may see Alexander Zverev pull clear.
Cristian Garin - 5.5 games v Marcos Giron: The numbers behind Cristian Garin's season on the clay courts have actually been pretty decent, but this is one player that has a habit of being dragged into tougher matches than he perhaps should be. That has been the case at the French Open over the last week with Garin spending well over seven hours on the court to win his two matches despite being a solid favourite in both.
He needed four sets to win in the First Round having dropped the first set, but Cristian Garin had to dig much deeper in the Second Round when finding himself 0-2 down in sets to Mackenzie McDonald. A third set Tie-Breaker was won by the Chilean and he then needed to showcase some strong mentality to win the match 8-6 in the final set and the big question for Cristian Garin is how much energy he has replenished in the one day rest between matches.
This is a player who has been a decent enough server and Garin has backed it up with some decent return numbers, but he can be a little erratic with his play and that means needing more time to win matches. Cristian Garin has already matched his Third Round run at the French Open from 2020 by reaching the same stage again, but he is looking for a breakthrough in reaching the second week of a Grand Slam for the first time.
Cristian Garin will go into this match as the favourite when taking on Marcos Giron who has perhaps benefited from a little fortune already in this tournament. He was 0-2 down in sets to Grigor Dimitrov before the Bulgarian struggled with his fitness and had to pull out of the match in the fourth set, while Marcos Giron was stronger in the Second Round against Guido Pella.
However, it should be noted that Pella has been struggling for form before this tournament began, although I still thought he would be good enough to avoid the upset. Marcos Giron has not played badly on the clay courts, but the American has struggled to look after his serve on the red dirt and that has put plenty of pressure on his return game.
I do think Giron will cause some problems for Garin, but the American has spent plenty of time on the court himself already in Paris. The opening couple of sets could be really competitive, but that is when Cristian Garin should be able to begin to take control of the match and the tempo of the rallies and I think that helps him reach the second week of a Grand Slam for the first time in his career as a Singles player.
MY PICKS: Casper Ruud - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Fabio Fognini - 1.5 Sets @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Alexander Zverev - 6.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Cristian Garin - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Reilly Opelka-Daniil Medvedev Over 38.5 Total Games @ 2.05 Coral (2 Units)
Stefanos Tsitsipas Win 3-0 @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Aryna Sabalenka - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Tamara Zidansek - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Victoria Azarenka - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Paula Badosa - 5.5 Games @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Serena Williams - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)
French Open Update: 23-22, - 3.36 Units (90 Units Staked, - 3.73% Yield)
No comments:
Post a Comment