The French Open is into the final few days and that is probably not the worst news for the tournament with the Euro 2020 Tournament days from starting.
That does not mean we are not in for a treat as Tennis fans and there are some big matches scheduled for Tuesday as the Quarter Finals begin in the bottom half of the draws.
Alexander Zverev - 7.5 games v Alejandro Davidovich Fokina: Once you reach the Quarter Final of a Grand Slam you have to believe you can go on and win the title, and I have no doubt that Alejandro Davidovich Fokina will think there is an opportunity for him. The 21 year old Spaniard is vastly less experienced than the other three players in his half of the draw and the other big battle for Davidovich Fokina will be against his own body having spent considerably more time on the court than the other players remaining in the tournament.
A four set win in the Fourth Round will have been welcomed by Davidovich Fokina, but he has invested a lot of effort to win his four matches here and now will be facing some of the top names on the Tour to even make the Final.
Alexander Zverev is first up for the Spaniard and the US Open Runner Up last year looks to be fine tuning his game for an assault on the title at the French Open. After dropping the opening two sets of the tournament, Alexander Zverev has bounced back to win twelve straight sets to dismantle the games of the four opponents he has faced in Paris.
The numbers have been eye-catching too as the German has worked his way through the draw and if he can maintain those levels it will be very difficult to beat Alexander Zverev. The feeling is that it will take someone who is likely going to have a lot more in the tank from a physical and emotional effort than we can realistically expect from Alejandro Davidovich Fokina after all of his efforts in the French Open.
The higher Ranked player and favourite in this Quarter Final has won at least 68% of points played behind serve in each of his first four matches here and Alexander Zverev has not only created at least nine break points in each of those, he has also broken serve at least seven times in three of the four wins.
It is the kind of level that has to be too good for a fatigued opponent, although the pressure obviously builds the deeper we get into a Major. That is something Alexander Zverev has become very much used to dealing with though and he has two wins over Alejandro Davidovich Fokina which should mean being very prepared for what is going to come his way.
I would never take anything away from Alejandro Davidovich Fokina for getting to his first Grand Slam Quarter Final, but he has been on the right side of the fine margins at times in the tournament. He can't expect Alexander Zverev to be as loose as Federico Delbonis and the Davidovich Fokina serve has been under pressure for much of the tournament and can expect more of the same on Tuesday.
In their two previous matches, Alexander Zverev has held 91% of his service games compared with Alejandro Davidovich Fokina's 59% mark and that is a huge difference. One of those wins came in a very one-sided win at the US Open last year and I think Zverev is playing at a very high level which can see him move through to the Semi Final in relatively comfortable fashion as long as he can stay together mentally and not think beyond this match.
Stefanos Tsitsipas - 1.5 sets v Daniil Medvedev: Just a quick look at the head to head makes it hard to really like Stefanos Tsitsipas to beat Daniil Medvedev, but the performances on the clay courts certainly make him a worthy favourite.
The previous seven meetings have been dominated by Daniil Medvedev who has won six of the seven matches and that includes the sole match they have played on the clay courts at the Monte Carlo Masters in 2019. Earlier this year the Russian crushed Stefanos Tsitsipas in the Australian Open Semi Final and the straight sets win will give Daniil Medvedev the mental edge.
However, this run in the French Open has come out of left field for Medvedev when you think of his previous performances on the surface. The victory over Cristian Garin was very impressive, but there is still going to be another level to find for Danill Medvedev even if he has been suggesting the conditions are much more to his liking than they have been previously on clay courts and in this tournament in Paris.
I can't ignore the strong numbers that Medvedev has produced in the tournament and he looks to be peaking which makes him incredibly dangerous. This is a player who can be very hard to beat when he is feeling his tennis like he has been so far this week, and Daniil Medvedev has been strong behind the serve which has only made his life easier when it comes to what has been a very effective return game.
Overall you can't say anything other than Stefanos Tsitsipas has shown a much more consistency to his tennis on this surface, but taking this French Open alone suggests it will be a tougher match for the Greek player than some would have predicted before the tournament began. If these two had played on the clay courts even a month ago, Stefanos Tsitsipas would have been a lot stronger favourite than he is for this Quarter Final and I think that comes down to the level being produced by Daniil Medvedev coupled with the head to head which is heavily leaned in his favour.
Stefanos Tsitsipas has been playing really well and at a consistent level throughout the French Open and he has plenty of experience of the main courts at Roland Garros. The numbers have been solid, but the feeling is that this match could really come down to what is happening between the ears against an opponent that has gotten the better of Tsitsipas in plenty of big matches in the recent past.
The Greek player has to serve well to at least try and put Daniil Medvedev under some pressure and that is the key to the match.
Anything less and Stefanos Tsitsipas could find Daniil Medvedev's game being a little too big for him again, but the surface is one that favours the former and I think he will be able to find a way to earn a victory in three or four sets. Mentally it might be too much to ask to win a close match if it does get into a fifth set, but Stefanos Tsitsipas has to focus on his own tennis on the clay courts and he can do enough to finally beat Daniil Medvedev on a big stage at the third attempt.
Elena Rybakina - 2.5 games v Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova: Both of these players are going to be desperate to reach the Semi Final of a Grand Slam tournament and there is every chance that they can help each other do that.
Elena Rybakina and Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova are teaming up in the Doubles this year and have reached the Quarter Final of that tournament after winning together on Monday, but they have to put their friendship aside when they meet in the Singles Quarter Final staring at the other over the net.
It could be a big week for 29 year old Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova who has reached her seventh Singles Quarter Final in a Major and also her sixth time at that stage in the Doubles, but she will be looking for a breakthrough. Amazingly the Russian is 0-11 in her previous Quarter Final appearances at a Grand Slam in either the Singles or Doubles, and the recent performances on the clay courts before 2021 suggested Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova was unlikely to reach that stage again having done so in 2011.
Upset wins have propelled Pavlyuchenkova past Aryna Sabalenka and Victoria Azarenka, but she has needed three sets to beat both Belarusian players and almost four hours on the court in just those two matches alone. That might have taken something out of the tank, but Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova has to be feeling good about her tennis even if she has perhaps been on the right side of the fine margins in her last two wins.
She will likely know all about Elena Rybakina having played together and I don't think anyone will need to tell Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova that the level will have to be notched up again.
The younger player has made the second week of a Grand Slam tournament for the first time, but you would never have guessed when watching Elena Rybakina dismantle Serena Williams in less than an hour and a half. This is a very talented player who perhaps has been affected by the Covid-19 protocols that have been in place on the Tour after looking really good in the months before things changed for everyone, but the Rybakina levels in this tournament have been very high and it is all about whether she can bring her best after such an emotional win.
Playing someone she will be familiar with can help in controlling the nerves, while I also think Elena Rybakina has the kind of serve that can put Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova under pressure.
The serve can build scoreboard pressure and Rybakina can match the returning numbers of her veteran opponent and I think it may see the Kazakhstan player find a way to edge past despite her relative lack of experience. Nerves can hurt the service action, but Elena Rybakina showed none of them in her win over Serena Williams as she served out both sets and I think she will have a bit too much power for her Doubles partner in this match.
Paula Badosa - 4.5 games v Tamara Zidansek: After the exit of Serena Williams and with so many of the top players on the WTA Tour out of the French Open before the Quarter Final of the tournament, the pressure may be building on Paula Badosa. The young Spaniard has had a stunning clay court season which may have seen her enter the French Open as a dark horse, but in the last couple fo Rounds she has been pushed harder than the layers believed she would and that may be a player feeling a weight of expectation.
After all of the exits, Paula Badosa has looked like the favourite to reach the Final of the French Open from the bottom half of the Women's draw. She had to play almost three hours to finally earn her way into the Fourth Round when seeing off Ana Bogdan, but Badosa had another tough encounter against Marketa Vondrousova, although a match in which she seemed to have a touch more control.
Now Paula Badosa is going to enter the Quarter Final as a pretty good favourite against Tamara Zidansek despite the clay court form the latter displayed during the clay court season. The 23 year old has a 14-4 record, but she has only played two top 50 Ranked opponents in that time and Zidansek lost to Ashleigh Barty before her win over Bianca Andreescu in the First Round of the French Open.
Any player who reaches this stage of a tournament has to be respected with the wins fuelling the confidence, but Tamara Zidansek has won the fine margins and her last two wins have been far from easy. A point here or two going the other way and she may have lost one of those matches, while Zidansek's opponents have created more break points than she has in each of the last three matches.
It is a concern because she is facing a quality server in Paula Badosa even if the levels have not quite been where the Spaniard would have wanted in the last couple of Rounds. However, Paula Badosa also looks to have a real edge over Tamara Zidansek when it comes to the returning and I do think she can break down this opponent as long as she can stay focused and not think too far ahead of what a win might mean for her.
Tamara Zidansek looks to be dangerous considering how much she has pushed the better players on the Tour when facing them on a clay court, but Paula Badosa could be playing at a level that she cannot quite reach often enough. The first set might be really tight and it is up to Badosa to make sure she stays focused to ride out the storm, but if she can get on top I would think the Spaniard has enough all around clay court ability to secure a win and a cover.
MY PICKS: Alexander Zverev - 7.5 Games @ 1.95 Coral (2 Units)
Stefanos Tsitsipas - 1.5 Sets @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Elena Rybakina - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Paula Badosa - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
French Open Update: 42-38, - 2.84 Units (160 Units Staked, - 1.78% Yield)
No comments:
Post a Comment