One Semi Final was relatively straight-forward, but the second Semi Final on the WTA Tour produced a classic between Barbora Krejcikova and Maria Sakkari with the former edging through deep in the third set and third hour of the match.
She is going to need all of Friday to recover before the Final, but Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova looked fatigued emotionally and physically in her own Semi Final win and it may come down to which of the two players can find the extra strength to produce their best tennis on the day.
The Men have a lot to live up to on Friday when their own two Semi Finals are scheduled, but both look fascinating on paper and I expect to see plenty of positive Tennis on the day. The two favourites both look like they will have enough to secure passage to Sunday's Final, but it has been an up and down tournament and one or two more twists and turns would not be a massive surprise.
Stefanos Tsitsipas - 1.5 sets v Alexander Zverev: Two of the young stars on the ATP Tour are meeting in a Semi Final at the French Open on Friday and I think both Stefanos Tsitsipas and Alexander Zverev have to see this as a very good chance to reach the Final. They are in the bottom half of the draw opposing Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic so the winner is likely to go into the Final as the underdog, but it is a chance to make a statement by reaching the Final and then trying to knock off one of the Big Three to announce themselves fully to the watching world.
First off they have to make sure they are not thinking too far ahead and that means focusing on what should be a really good Semi Final. The two players have had a very good clay court season going into the French Open with both having won a Masters title on the surface, while both Alexander Zverev and Stefanos Tsitsipas have to be very, very happy with the kind of level they have shown throughout the French Open.
Winning Slams is very difficult on the Men's side of the Tour with the best of five format a whole different challenge to what players deal with on a week by week basis. Getting through the early Rounds with the little time spent on court is key for players and both Zverev and Tsitsipas have managed to do that at the French Open which means they have plenty in the tank to give their all in this Semi Final and the Final.
Alexander Zverev has put together the stronger numbers in the French Open, but you can't ignore the fact that he has yet to beat anyone Ranked above Number 46 in the tournament. Contrast that to Stefanos Tsitsipas who has wins over two top 20 Ranked players without dropping a set and whose own numbers are plenty eye-catching too.
It potentially makes the Greek player a little more battle hardened for this kind of challenge and I do think his overall clay performances have been about as good as anyone on the Tour so far in 2021. Even in Paris, Stefanos Tsitsipas is playing at a consistently strong level and that makes him dangerous with the confidence that would have been picked up by beating Daniil Medvedev in the manner he did, a player that has given Tsitsipas fits in the past.
This one has a different feel for Stefanos Tsitsipas- while he had a poor head to head with Medvedev, he has won five of the seven previous matches against Alexander Zverev. This is the first match at Grand Slam level, which is different than the usual Tour matches, and Zverev will know he snapped a five match losing run to Tsitsipas when beating him in Acapulco earlier in 2021, but I do think this is a surface on which the Greek player is most comfortable.
In their previous matches Stefanos Tsitsipas has been able to get more out of his serve and I do think that is going to be a pivotal weapon for him in this Semi Final. If he can serve well again, I think it will build pressure on the Alexander Zverev serve which can show more vulnerability than we have seen in this tournament so far.
Their sole meeting on clay ended in a three set win for Stefanos Tsitsipas in Madrid, but conditions are much slower in Paris than in the Spanish capital and I think that helps Tsitsipas more than Alexander Zverev.
I can't ignore how well Alexander Zverev has played in the last two Rounds, but I think the draw has opened up for him and he will have to lift his level considerably to beat someone like Stefanos Tsitsipas in the form the Greek player has displayed. The return game has looked in fine shape which makes the German dangerous and he has the experience of having won a Grand Slam Semi Final before after doing that at the US Open last September, but the timing looks to be right for Stefanos Tsitsipas here.
This will be far from an easy match for either though and it is all about who settles himself down the quickest and just gets his teeth into the match. I do think Stefanos Tsitsipas' last two wins will stand him in good stead in the tight moments and he can find his way past Alexander Zverev in three or four sets.
Rafael Nadal - 1.5 sets v Novak Djokovic: There were a few headlines written about the Novak Djokovic reaction to winning his match with Matteo Berrettini in the Quarter Final on Wednesday evening, but I think it had as much to do with getting the job done in the fourth set as anything else. The World Number 1 must have been a little wary that he was going to be dragged into a battle that may have lasted enough hour on the court, but Novak Djokovic will have been well aware how detrimental that would have been to his chances of beating Rafael Nadal for the second time at the French Open.
Even after completing the win over Berrettini in just shy of three and a half hours, Novak Djokovic will know more needs to come from him if he is going to upset Rafael Nadal.
The Spaniard has been a dominant player at Roland Garros and the conditions in Paris over the last two weeks couldn't have been picked any better for Rafael Nadal. They are much better tha last Autumn when Nadal won the title here and Diego Sebastian Schwartzman snapped a run of 36 consecutive sets that Rafael Nadal has won at this tournament.
It was a tough Quarter Final for Rafael Nadal for around an hour and a half, but like so many players before him, Diego Sebastian Schwartzman was unable to maintain the level he needed and Nadal picked up his own aggression and performance to run through the last eight games.
Novak Djokovic did push Rafael Nadal in a three set loss in Rome last month, but he was blown out by the Spaniard in the French Open Final last October when many thought the conditions may have favoured the Number 1 player in the world. Instead it was Nadal who dominated and his performances against Novak Djokovic at the French Open makes it hard to believe there is going to be an upset here.
Both players have served well in the tournament and better than what they have shown on the clay courts before the French Open begun, but the feeling is that Novak Djokovic will find it a touch more difficult to keep the level he has set for the tournament.
Their clay court meetings at the Masters level has shown that Novak Djokovic can certainly challenge Rafael Nadal on the surface, but those are over best of three set formats and it has been a different story in Paris. In the French Open, Rafael Nadal wins around 3% more points behind serve and 4% more points on the return and while those margins don't sound a lot, they have resulted in 77% of service games being held compared with 74% at Masters level, while also resulting in breaks of serve in 35% of return games rather than 31%.
It is the main reason Rafael Nadal has an 11-6 lead over Novak Djokovic in clay court matches in the Masters, but 7-1 in the French Open. Novak Djokovic has won just seven sets in the previous eight matches against Rafael Nadal in Paris and that includes all three in his sole victory against him here and I do think the Spaniard is playing at a level which makes it hard to imagine him needing more than four sets to win this one too.
I don't think it will be close to as easy as Rafael Nadal made the Final against Novak Djokovic last year, but I do think the 'King of Clay' will come through in a tough Semi Final and go into the Final as the favourite on Sunday.
MY PICKS: Stefanos Tsitsipas - 1.5 Sets @ 1.66 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 1.5 Sets @ 1.66 Bet Fred (2 Units)
French Open Update: 49-41, + 3.80 Units (180 Units Staked, + 2.11% Yield)
No comments:
Post a Comment