The second week line up is going to be completed on Saturday at the French Open and the feeling is that both draws, the Men's and Women's, have become top loaded with the results going the way they have over the last week.
It does mean there are going to be headlines generated by Serena Williams who looks to have a very good path to win her 24th Grand Slam title and finally match Margaret Court's record total as a Singles player. The bottom half has seen some of the top names exit, while you would probably only really favour Iga Swiatek over Serena Williams.
In saying that, Williams will know there are some players in the draw that are capable of challenging her and she has had plenty of unexpected defeats in the Slams as she has looked to finally reach the number she has long been targeting. I do make Serena Williams favourite to come out of the bottom half of the draw, but players like Elena Rybakina, Victoria Azarenka and Paula Badosa may still have something to say about that before the Final is set for next Saturday.
Saturday will see the top half of both draws complete their second week line up and there are some decent matches that are set to be played. We have yet to really have a number of classics, but the Casper Ruud-Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Third Round match may be the spark that lights the fire under a few other matches in the days ahead.
Matteo Berrettini - 8.5 games v Soon Woo Kwon: There were plenty of positive signs in the development of Soon Woo Kwon as he made his way up the World Rankings, but the career has just hit the wall of late and he has slipped back down to outside the top 90 in those Rankings. The run to the Third Round at the French Open has come as something of a surprise when you think of the history Soon Woo Kwon has had on the surface.
Wins over Kevin Anderson and Andreas Seppi are solid enough, but both of those are veterans these days and neither has been playing that much competitive tennis of late. You still have to take advantage of the draw when it lands that way, but Soon Woo Kwon has to know that the level is about to go up dramatically in this Third Round contest.
Now he has to take on Matteo Berrettini who some will consider as a potential dark horse Champion and a player who has shown significant improvements over the last couple of years. The top Italian player on the ATP Tour has a huge serve and some massive groundstrokes, but he can be an effective returner and that has been the part of his game which has really improved in his rise up into the top ten of the World Rankings.
One poor set against Taro Daniel aside and you can say that Matteo Berrettini has been largely untested in his two wins so far at the French Open and that has only backed up what has been a strong clay court campaign for him. He has improved to 12-3 on the surface in 2021 and it has followed what was some strong tennis on the red dirt in the short clay court season in 2020 too.
The three losses that Matteo Berrettini has suffered on the clay in 2021 have come against some very strong clay court competition and I would have to say that Soon Woo Kwon has not really matched the big level of Stefanos Tsitsipas, Alexander Zverev and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina.
Soon Woo Kwon has only secured two top 100 wins on the clay courts in 2021 and neither player he has beaten was actually Ranked above 91. The South Korean has a vulnerable serve in general, but his numbers have taken a serious dent when facing one-sided losses to Novak Djokovic and Pablo Carreno Busta on this surface over the last several weeks.
Both of those players are stronger returners than someone like Matteo Berrettini, but the Italian has broken in 27% of return games played against players outside the top 20 of the World Rankings on the clay this season. Matteo Berrettini has been really strong returning in Paris too and I think his serve will put Soon Woo Kwon under pressure and eventually lead to cracks in the South Korean's own service games.
This is a massive number at this stage of a Grand Slam, but Matteo Berrettini has the makings of a cover as he reaches the second week of a Major again.
Roger Federer - 5.5 games v Dominik Koepfer: The big question for Roger Federer is whether his body can continue to handle clay court matches in a short space of time having barely played any competitive tennis over the last eighteen months. The performance level would have been encouraging in his first two wins in Paris against Denis Istomin and Marin Cilic, although both of those players have mental demons to exorcise when standing across the net from Roger Federer.
That shouldn't be the case for Dominik Koepfer having never played Roger Federer before, but the German is going to have to find a level that he has not been able to sustain before if he is going to earn the upset. His two wins in the main draw here at the French Open while dropping a single set will give Dominik Koepfer some encouragement, while being a left hander should make the tactics pretty simple for the lower Ranked player as his forehand will naturally head into the Roger Federer backhand.
It may give Dominik Koepfer a chance here and especially if there is any fatigue in the Roger Federer performance. He looked pretty good at the end of the Second Round win over Marin Cilic and has had a day to prepare for this match, while Federer has been placed in the Night Session spot on Saturday and that only gives him more time to prepare for the match.
The Dominik Koepfer serve can be attacked by Roger Federer who had been returning well in his two wins in the tournament so far. During the clay court season he has been winning less than 60% of the points played behind serve and that has put pressure on Koepfer, especially when playing top 50 Ranked players on the surface over the last two months.
He had been breaking in less than 20% of return games played when facing a top 50 Ranked opponent and the Roger Federer level has suggested he is still playing well enough to win a match like this one. Dominik Koepfer played well in his win over Taylor Fritz in the Second Round in his four set win, but this is another level upwards and I do think Roger Federer will be able to take control of the match under the lights.
Before the tournament began, Roger Federer struggled with his return of serve in the sole match played against Pablo Andujar. However, he has looked comfortable in that aspect of his tennis in the two wins so far in Paris and I think he can eventually begin to wear down this opponent on his way to a good looking win and a place in the second week of the second Grand Slam of the season.
Marco Cecchinato v Lorenzo Musetti: A veteran Italian has exited the French Open in the Third Round already, but there is plenty of interest for tennis fans from that nation remaining in the Men's draw. Two of the remaining players meet for a place in the second week at this Grand Slam event and I am a little surprised by the prices for this Third Round match.
Neither Marco Cecchinato nor Lorenzo Musetti will suggest they have been pushed too much in the tournament so far, although the latter has won both matches in straight sets and Cecchinato has needed four sets to win both his matches played. I think both players will be pleased with the level they have shown in the opening two wins in Paris and it does make this a competitive looking match.
However, Marco Cecchinato is considerably more experienced as the older player from Italy and a former Semi Finalist at Roland Garros where he holds a win over Novak Djokovic. It would be foolish to ignore that run, while you also have to take a look at the kind of tennis Marco Cecchinato continues to play on the red dirt with some decent numbers behind him over the last couple of years.
He reached the Final of a tournament held in Parma in the days before the French Open began and Marco Cecchinato had been playing well prior to the second Major of 2021 getting underway. The 28 year old might not have the most convincing of serves, but he had won 63% of points behind it before the French Open began and Marco Cecchinato is capable of backing it up with some strong returning figures.
Those numbers are much stronger all around when only considering Cecchinato's performances against players outside the top 20 of the World Rankings and he is facing one of those here. Marco Cecchinato should know all about Lorenzo Musetti as one of the up and coming talents being produced by Italy and you do have to wonder if Musetti will have a slight inferiority complex that can be seen when younger players take on veterans from their own nation that have had some notable successes in the past.
Lorenzo Musetti has perhaps not been as strong on the serve as his opponent in this one, but he is a decent returner on the clay courts and will be playing with confidence. There have been signs of how good he can be when taking a set off an in-form Stefanos Tsitsipas in Lyon last month, but the numbers don't tend to lie and Lorenzo Musetti is still getting to grips with playing top 100 World Ranked players with the consistency that comes with experience.
Both players have strong recent records against compatriots in professional matches, but Marco Cecchinato knows how to deal with the best of five setting and I think he can win this one as the underdog. When all is said and done, Lorenzo Musetti may look back at the superior career, but at this stage of it I think Marco Cecchinato is still the superior clay courter and can show that over four or perhaps even five sets.
Rafael Nadal - 9.5 games v Cameron Norrie: There were moments of dominance, but Rafael Nadal will also know there is room for improvement on his first two performances in Paris although he is peaking towards the Final in a manner he will like. Once again he will be looking for another increase in overall level in the Third Round as he takes on a British player who has really impressed on the clay courts over the last two months.
Cameron Norrie has not really shown much form on the clay courts in his career, but things have changed in 2021 and he hit a new peak World Ranking a couple of weeks ago. Comfortable wins have been secured in the opening week at the French Open, but Cameron Norrie will know that his own level will have to be much higher than what was good enough to see off Bjorn Fratangelo and Lloyd Harris.
A 16-4 record on the clay will give Norrie plenty of confidence and the lefty stance should mean he will feel pretty good about his chances of at least getting on top of rallies when he can. Cameron Norrie will have to serve well, but he has been beaten by Rafael Nadal twice already this season and will know it is a very tough task in front of him.
The British player is holding 82% of his service games played on the clay courts in 2021 and the return game has worked really well which has helped Norrie put those wins together.
However you can't ignore the dents in those numbers when Cameron Norrie has faced top 50 Ranked players on the clay courts this season and he has struggled to be competitive against Rafael Nadal in his two losses to him. One of those came in the Australian Open on the hard courts, while Nadal dropped just five games in two sets in his straight sets victory over Norrie on the clay courts in Barcelona.
The Spaniard has won 46% of the return points played against Cameron Norrie and over the best of five setting in Paris you would think Rafael Nadal will end up wearing down this opponent. Cameron Norrie won't be easy to knock off, but I do think he will find it difficult to stay with Rafael Nadal for the length of time he will need to and this big handicap mark is one that the former World Number 1 can surpass.
It will need some late breaks to really get Rafael Nadal over the line, but he can do that and I think he will earn a good win on the way through to the Fourth Round yet again in Paris.
MY PICKS: Matteo Berrettini - 8.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Marco Cecchinato @ 2.20 Bet365 (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 9.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jannik Sinner - 7.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)
Jan-Lennard Struff + 1.5 Sets @ 1.85 Coral (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic - 10.5 Games @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Elina Svitolina - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Sofia Kenin - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Marta Kostyuk - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)
Maria Sakkari - 1.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Iga Swiatek - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
French Open Update: 28-28, - 7.30 Units (112 Units Staked, - 6.52% Yield)
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