The path to Euro 2020 success has been laid out for the remaining sixteen teams in the tournament and there is no doubt that the Knock Out Stages are very much top loaded.
While Italy, Belgium, Portugal, France and Spain were all amongst the favourites before the Finals began, only one of those nations is going to be able to make the Euro 2020 Final at Wembley Stadium in just over two weeks time.
England, Germany and the Netherlands are the big names in the other half of the draw, but the likes of Wales, Denmark and Sweden will feel there is an opportunity for them too in what looks a much more open section.
Right now I would still have France down as the favourites with the most favourable of the Last 16 ties for those top nations, while Belgium are likely going to have to beat four top teams to take home a title the golden generation have been desperate to secure.
The winner of the England/Germany tie on Tuesday afternoon is going to be a big favourite to move through the draw to the Final, but I really like the way the Netherlands have approached things and they have winnable matches through to the Semi Final and made the inaugural Nations League Final which also has to be respected.
The tournament has been a little underwhelming to this point and I think that is down to a couple of factors- the event being held in multiple countries at a time when travelling for fans is restricted at best means the atmospheres have perhaps not matched previous tournaments, and the pandemic itself has had a huge impact as to the way fans approach watching these matches at home too.
There is also a lack of danger in the early stages of the tournament with only eight of the twenty-four teams playing in the European Finals exiting before the Knock Out Stages. That removes some of the intensity of the Group Stage and I would not be surprised if this is a competition that is expanded to thirty-two teams before the end of this decade to try and increase the importance of the Groups, even if the competition itself would be diluted significantly.
UEFA won't be too concerned about that knowing the financial rewards that will come with a bigger tournament and it would make sense to do that in time for Euro 2028 when the World Cup is increased to forty-eight teams two years earlier.
The one country approach going forward should also reinvigorate the competition, while the Knock Out Rounds of the 2020 (2021?) edition could really spark the entire event. There are some big matches in the Last 16 and with the top teams likely moving through there could be some huge fixtures to be played before a winner is decided.
England have a very good chance of ending a long wait for success, but I still lean towards France who have been pretty quiet in the Group Stages of Euro 2016 and 2018 World Cup before turning on the style in the Knock Out Rounds. A similar trend could see France blitz through the Knock Out Stages and become European Champions two years after taking over the world.
The Group Stages have been pretty decent for the Euro 2020 Picks I have been making, but things intensify in the Knock Out Rounds and that could lead to some tighter contests. I certainly think that could be the case as the tournament moves on, but the Last 16 draw looks a good one and I am hoping the entertainment value will rocket upwards.
Saturday 26th June
Wales vs Denmark Pick: The tragic Christian Eriksen situation played a major part in Denmark's opening loss to Finland, but the squad has rallied together after their friend and team-mate was considered over the bump and looking like he will be put on a road to recovery.
The inspired Danes have dominated their last two Group games, but they couldn't hold on against Belgium and so needed to beat the Russians at home. The second of those games was even more impressive from Denmark who hammered Russia 4-1 in Copenhagen and will now travel to Amsterdam in good form and with some real momentum behind them.
Before the tournament I did suggest Denmark could be a dark horse and they have been given the right draw with a Last 16 tie against Wales followed by a Quarter Final against the winner of the Netherlands-Czech Republic fixture.
Christian Eriksen will be a loss for any team, but Denmark have created a lot of chances in the last couple of games while they have continued to defend pretty well. A lack of clean sheets may suggest otherwise, but Denmark were punished by Belgium in one game despite having the better of the overall game, while Russia needed a Penalty to break through this defence.
Players like Gareth Bale and Aaron Ramsey will help Wales carry a threat and they are in a position where some fans may feel only matching the Semi Final run of 2016 will be considered a positive tournament from here. The players are perhaps more realistic and understand the challenges ahead, but in Bale and Ramsey there are match winners in the Wales ranks that will make them dangerous.
Wales have played well in the tournament, but I think Denmark represent another level from the likes of Turkey and Switzerland. In only the fixture against Turkey have Wales really been deserving of the result they have obtained, but they were a little fortunate against Switzerland and Denmark are arguably better than both of those nations.
Denmark hold the mental edge having beaten Wales twice in the 2018/19 Nations League, while the momentum is also hard to shift behind the favourites for this Last 16 tie.
I imagine Robert Page will pick a team that looks to be solid at the back and try and hit Denmark on the counter, but the latter have been a better team than Wales in this tournament and I think that eventually shows up. The first goal is going to be crucial for both teams, but I do think Denmark are playing with the positivity and confidence that suggests they will have the better of this game and they can win in the ninety minutes scheduled.
Italy vs Austria Pick: You never want to peak too early in a tournament and that has to be the only worry for Italy fans that will be proud of their national team once again after the hugely embarrassing failure to even Qualify for the 2018 World Cup.
Not many would have seriously believed Italy can win Euro 2020, but the development of the national team will be a project that may reap rewards in the years ahead and for that Roberto Mancini will be much admired.
His team have played attacking, modern football but without losing the Italian identity of being strong in defence and that has played out in the Group Stage where Italy have scored seven goals and kept clean sheets against Turkey, Switzerland and Wales. Even a much changed team in the final Group game were comfortable against the Welsh and the Last 16 tie looks like one that Italy should be very happy with.
Bigger challenges are going to come in the heavy loaded top half of the draw and with that in mind Giorgio Chiellini is unlikely to be risked in this tie. The Italians will feel they can contain an Austria team that were well beaten by the Netherlands in the Group Stage in Amsterdam, but they will also have to respect the fact they finished 2nd in Group C.
I am not convinced that was the toughest section out there and Austria will have to defend a lot better than what we saw from them in their defeat to the Netherlands. On another day the margin would have been much greater than the 2-0 final score suggested and I do think Italy are the kind of team who could be rampant if there is any kind of repeat of that performance from Austria.
Finding a way to challenge an Italy team that have kept eleven clean sheets in eleven straight wins is a huge task for Austria who were crushed 0-4 by Denmark in a World Cup Qualifier in March. The manager likes his team to be a little more proactive on the attacking side of things, but that leaves Austria open at times and Italy have shown they can score plenty of goals with those being provided from players throughout the squad.
Before the 1-0 win over Wales, Italy had scored at least twice in ten straight wins, but it was a much changed team that saw that run come to an end. I think there is every chance Italy will at least begin a new trend of that many goals being scored in this Last 16 tie and I think that will be enough to see them past Austria and take their place in what is likely to be a huge Quarter Final next Friday evening.
Sunday 27th June
Netherlands vs Czech Republic Pick: The draw for the Knock Out Rounds of the Euro 2020 tournament looks extremely top loaded and there is a big opportunity for a big run for one of the dark horses to open the event.
The Netherlands and Czech Republic have both previously had huge successes in this continental competition and the current squads will sense there is a big opportunity in front of them. The winner will certainly believe they are favourites to beat whoever they face in the Quarter Final and once you get into the final four of any competition there has to be a real belief that something special can occur.
It would be a huge return to major international tournament events for the Netherlands who missed out on Euro 2016 and the 2018 World Cup and they haven't really put a foot wrong in the tournament so far. Granted all of those games were home games in Amsterdam and now they have to travel to Budapest, but the Netherlands will be happy with their level and they have been creating a lot of chances.
There are questions about their defensive stability, especially when they will move onto tougher tests, but the Czech Republic have not really created as much in the final third as they would have liked. A Penalty got them on the board against Croatia and the Czech Republic failed to score against England with very little created in those games, while they also have to answer questions defensively considering the positions Scotland and England managed to get into against the Czechs.
It is a concern for the Czech Republic who will have to feel that the Netherlands are going to get on the front foot and cause problems for them.
The first goal will be important, but I do think there has been enough creativity shown by the Netherlands to feel they can get in front and then hurt the Czech Republic on the counter attack.
A poor record against this nation is a slight concern, but the Netherlands are a squad of players that may feel there is more to come from them despite the eight goals scored in the Group. I think they will cause plenty of problems for the Czech Republic in this Last 16 tie and the Netherlands can continue their run of scoring at least twice and extend that to 11 games on their way to another victory and a place in the Quarter Final of the Euro 2020 Finals.
Belgium vs Portugal Pick: Before a ball was kicked at Euro 2020 the likes of Belgium and Portugal were right amongst the favourites to win the tournament and it is something of a shame that one of these nations will be exiting the event on Sunday.
Both teams are in the loaded top half of the draw and whoever is able to get through to the Final is going to have to beat some very good teams to do that.
Belgium and Portugal cannot look too far ahead and both Roberto Martinez and Fernando Santos will know how tough the task is to win this Last 16 tie. The two teams have tremendous talent littered through the squads and Romelu Lukaku and Cristiano Ronaldo are in fine form which will give Belgium and Portugal plenty of confidence they can find the goals to secure passage through to the next Round.
The narrow favourites are Belgium who have won all three Group games, while Portugal secured four points in their own section. However, it should be pointed out that Belgium had a much more comfortable Group compared with Portugal and they will have to be a lot better than they were in their narrow win over Denmark to win a game like this one.
Belgium have been creating chances though and they have players like Kevin De Bruyne and Lukaku who will feel they can hurt this Portugal defence. Five years ago Portugal won the Euro 2016 title with a strong defensive effort, but they have conceded six goals in a couple of games against Germany and France and those teams did create some good chances in those fixtures against the Portuguese.
That will be encouragement for Belgium who have a manager that will want his team to get forward and score goals and they have managed to do that in 33 consecutive fixtures. It is difficult to imagine those drying up here, but an ageing Belgian defence is vulnerable to the speed and quality that Portugal have in the final third and I do think that makes it an intriguing fixture.
While Portugal have given up some big chances in their last couple of games, they have scored at least twice in each fixture played at the Euro 2020 Finals. This is a team that has created chances and quick feet from their wide players have also forced teams to make mistakes and give away Penalties, something an ageing Belgium backline will have to be wary of.
I do think both teams will score in normal time, but this feels like it could develop into a very attacking game considering the approach we are likely to see from Belgium. That should leave spaces for Portugal too and I think there will be at least three goals shared out considering the performances we have seen from both teams so far in the tournament.
Picking a winner is not easy and I do think it is going to come down to which of Lukaku or Ronaldo is most clinical on the day.
I won't pick which way it goes, but will look for at least three goals to be shared out before that winner is decided.
Monday 28th June
Croatia vs Spain Pick: In recent times both Croatia and Spain have had considerable success on the international stage, but the feeling is that both of these teams are in transition at the moment.
While a smaller nation like Croatia are unlikely to produce a team like the one that reached the World Cup Final in 2018 any time soon, they have historically produced some very good sides. Since that World Cup key players have moved on and they are still heavily reliant on the likes of Luka Modric and Ivan Perisic, but Croatia have struggled for consistency in the final third through their opening Group fixtures.
It is a concern for them against a Spanish team that still likes to get the ball down and play and who are fresh off a big win over Slovakia. Despite that, there is still a feeling that Spain lack the quality needed in the final third to really go on and win this tournament, although you do have to respect a team that can create as many strong chances as Spain have so far in this tournament.
Both of these teams will like to control the ball and play the game at their own tempo, and I do think it will be a fixture that is competitive throughout. However, it is Spain who have looked more capable of creating a consistency of chances and they do have enough in the final third to believe they can earn a narrow victory in this Last 16 tie.
Spain do have to overcome some mental hurdles- since winning Euro 2012, Spain have not won a Knock Out tie at any of the next three major international tournaments, while Croatia are plenty experienced after working their way through to the World Cup Final three years ago.
That is a concern for Luis Enrique and his team, but I think Spain will do just enough to edge past an opponent that have perhaps hit their peak to reach the Knock Out Rounds.
France vs Switzerland Pick: While Germany will head to London to take on England and Portugal will be travelling to Seville to play Belgium, France have been rewarded for winning the 'Group of Death' with a fixture against Switzerland in Bucharest.
This is the 'easiest' of the fixtures the three teams coming out of Group F will be facing, but France can't take anything for granted. Back to back draws has dented some of the early momentum picked up in their win over Germany in Munich and Didier Deschamps will be looking for more from his team who have looked good at times, but have yet to really stamp their authority on this tournament.
They do have a chance to make a statement when hosting a Switzerland team that needed a special Xherdan Shaqiri performance to beat Turkey and move through to the Last 16 as one of the best third place finishers. A change in approach has seen Switzerland try and get on the front foot, but they may return to type in this fixture knowing how dangerous their opponents can be.
An attacking approach saw Switzerland exposed by Italy in Rome in a 3-0 loss in the Group Stage, but it may be their best bet to try and upset the odds. We have yet to see France defend as well as they would like, but this is a team that can create chances and will see the Switzerland defence as one that is more vulnerable than it has been in recent years.
France have some very strong attacking talent and they have been creating plenty of chances in their last couple of games. They could also be very dangerous on the counter attack if France get their noses in front and this is a team that has scored plenty of goals in Knock Out ties at Euro 2016 and the 2018 World Cup.
I would not be that surprised if the Swiss look to frustrate and try and hit France on the counter themselves, but this France team is full of quality. We have yet to really see them hit their stride, but France have not really performed that strongly in each of the last two Group Stages in 2016 and 2018 before really turning it on in the attacking third in the Knock Out Rounds.
They should be too good for a Switzerland team that were overwhelmed by Italy in Rome and I think France win a game that features at least two goals on the night.
Tuesday 29th June
England vs Germany Pick: All anyone in England would have been hearing for a few days is how it would be better for the national team to avoid winning Group D and give themselves the best path through to the Euro 2020 Final.
That was before the 1-0 win over the Czech Republic which earned England top spot in their own section and the irony is that those calling for anything else would have been seriously wrong. Croatia face Spain and the Czech Republic face the Netherlands, but England have the benefit of hosting this Last 16 tie against old rivals Germany and the winner of this tie will be a considerable favourite to be playing in the Final of the Euro 2020 in a couple of Sundays time.
Winning Group D did mean England would have a tough test, but it was only a late Germany equaliser on Wednesday that prevented this being a home game against Hungary. Instead it is Germany who took 2nd place in Group F, but this is a team filled with inconsistencies and one that is vulnerable to the speed and counter attacking ability England play with.
Joachim Low's men will try and get forward and pressure an England defence which has kept five clean sheets in a row. Germany will certainly feel they can have some successes knowing the chances that Scotland created at Wembley Stadium and especially when you think of the opportunities that Germany have created in their opening three Group games.
All were played in Munich, but Germany have won 6 of their last 8 away competitive fixtures and they will feel they have plenty of attacking quality to hurt England.
This not a vintage Germany team, but they are one that has to be respected after seeing the way they tore through Portugal. They had enough chances to beat Hungary and earn a draw with France too and much is going to depend on what side of the bed the players get out of on Tuesday.
England will likely play the way they have been which is to focus on the defensive side of things and hope they can show enough quality to break down their opponents. The performances in the Nations League is some concern when England have come up against better opponents, but Germany look vulnerable too and I think an early goal will really open up this Last 16 tie.
There is pressure on both sets of players who will recognise the opportunity in front of them if they can win this tie, but Germany as an underdog will feel they have 'nothing to lose'. That makes them dangerous, but the style should also leave spaces for England to exploit and I would not be surprised if this is a high-scoring game between old rivals.
Games between England and Germany have historically been tight and competitive affairs, but the visitors have shown their best form of defence is to get forward and try and overwhelm opponents. Goals have been flowing in the last couple of matches, but defensively England will feel this German team is very exploitable to pacy attacks and goals look like they will be on the menu.
Having home advantage should give England enough of an edge to work their way past Germany here, but it might be a more enjoyable game for the neutrals than those invested in either nation.
Sweden vs Ukraine Pick: There will be fans of both of these nations that will already feel disrespected by the likes of England and Germany essentially speaking about their chances of reaching the Final of the Euro 2020 as long as they are able to make it through to the Quarter Final out of that Last 16 tie.
That isn't a complete disrespect to Sweden and Ukraine, but neither of these teams were really expected to contend at the tournament and yet they are on the brink of a Quarter Final. Sweden will have reached back to back major tournament Quarter Finals which would be remarkable considering it has happened in the years since Zlatan Ibrahimovic has retired and missed out.
Injury prevented Ibrahimovic playing in Euro 2020, but Sweden's squad have rallied together without their talisman and this is a team that is much greater than the sum of their parts. Beating out Spain and Poland to win this Group is no mean feat and they will be heading into the Last 16 tie with nothing to lose.
However, there is some sense of expectation around this tie which will be a new element for Sweden to deal with. They may not be big favourites, but they are favourites to beat a Ukraine team that had a negative goal difference and lost two of their three Group games and were still able to make it through to the Last 16 as one of the best third place finishers.
Ukraine had some expectations around them to have a good tournament, but they haven't played as well as they would have liked in the defeats to Netherlands and Austria. Getting through gives them another chance, but Ukraine's confidence has to be dented by those losses and the manner in which they were beaten with both Holland and Austria creating plenty of really good chances.
Andriy Shevchenko wants Ukraine to play on the front foot, but they have not been as creative as they would have liked and this is a team that has struggled for goals. They scored twice against North Macedonia, but one of those was a Penalty and Ukraine also fought back to 2-2 against the Netherlands thanks to two special finishes, but over the last twelve months it has been a real issue for them in the final third.
Before Euro 2020 began, Ukraine beat Cyprus 4-0 in a friendly to snap a run of 12 games in which they had failed to score more than a single goal. The lack of chances created in the games with the Netherlands and Austria are thus a concern and I am not sure they will get much change out of Sweden despite the fact that this team has not been as watertight at the back as they would have liked.
Sweden have given up a huge amount of chances in their Group games with Spain and Poland and I do think better teams will take advantage of that as the Euro 2020 tournament continues, but I am not convinced Ukraine will be able to do the same. And as poor as Sweden have looked at times at the back, they have been creating chances in all of their games and I think that is where they have a narrow edge over this Last 16 opponent in what looks one of the weaker ties to come at this Stage of the tournament.
Extra Time would not be a massive surprise considering the limitations of both of these teams, but I think Sweden are the overall better team and backing them to Qualify for the Last Eight makes the most appeal.
MY PICKS: Denmark to Win @ 1.85 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Italy to Win & Over 1 Total Goals @ 1.86 Bet365 (2 Units)
Netherlands to Win & Over 1 Total Goals @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
Belgium-Portugal Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Spain to Win & Under 4 Total Goals @ 2.20 Bet365 (2 Units)
France to Win & Over 1 Total Goals @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
England-Germany Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Sweden to Qualify @ 1.72 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Group Stage: 21-15, + 11.96 Units (71 Units Staked, + 16.85% Yield)
Match Day 3: 9-3, + 12.40 Units (23 Units Staked, + 53.91% Yield)
Match Day 2: 5-7, - 3.54 Units (24 Units Staked, - 14.75% Yield)
Match Day 1: 7-5, + 3.10 Units (24 Units Staked, + 12.92% Yield)
No comments:
Post a Comment