The Quarter Final line up will be settled at the French Open by the end of play on Monday.
Some surprising names have already made up half of the remaining sixteen players in the draw, but there may be a more familiar feel to the top half of the draws which will be decided with the remaining Fourth Round matches in Paris.
Novak Djokovic - 9.5 games v Lorenzo Musetti: There is so much to appreciate about the talent that Italy are producing on the Men's side of the tennis Tour and it would almost be a surprise if at least two of their leading three young players were not able to become Grand Slam Champions in an era that will soon be without Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic.
Those young Italian guns will have every chance to prove they are already ready to make their mark at this level as Matteo Berrettini, Jannik Sinner and Lorenzo Musetti are all in the top half of the draw alongside those all time great players. If it wasn't for Roger Federer pulling out of his match with Berrettini, all three would be facing members of the Big Three on Day 9 at the French Open in the Fourth Round, but Italian tennis fans will have to make do in watching two of their young talents take to the court.
Lorenzo Musetti showed off some of his skills and mental strength in seeing off compatriot Marco Cecchinato in the Third Round in what has been a very good week for the 19 year old. Making the second week of a Grand Slam at this stage cannot be underestimated and Lorenzo Musetti may feel he has nothing to lose.
He even played well enough to take a set from Stefanos Tsitsipas on the clay last month which will give Musetti confidence, and you can't ignore how well he has generally played in the French Open. There were moments the match may have gotten away from him in the Third Round, but Lorenzo Musetti will feel he is capable of playing his tennis and putting some pressure on the World Number 1.
Some pressure is one thing compared with winning a match and it will certainly feel like a match that Novak Djokovic is relatively comfortable playing. The Serb has not really been tested in the three wins he has earned in Paris and there have been positive signs with how well Novak Djokovic has been serving which is going to be key if he is going to win the French Open for the second time in his career.
Before the tournament began there were questions about the Novak Djokovic serve, but he has dropped it just once in the three wins so far and it will be important to try and keep Lorenzo Musetti at bay.
The younger player can perform with some freedom knowing there isn't much to lose, but he will go for his shots and Lorenzo Musetti has fallen away in a couple of matches against top 50 Ranked opponents on the clay. One of those came against a quality clay courter like Stefanos Tsitsipas and he is now going to be up against one of the superior return players on the Tour who should be able to make enough balls back in play to eventually wear down Lorenzo Musetti.
This is a big spread even for someone as capable as Novak Djokovic, but he won't want to waste too much energy and I do think his pressure created from the return of serve will be key to the outcome of the match and the eventual margin of victory. I would not be that surprised if Lorenzo Musetti is competitive for a couple of sets, but I do think Novak Djokovic will be able to break past him a couple of times in one of the sets played and that should set him on the road to a win and a cover, especially as Novak Djokovic has broken at least five times in each of the three matches played so far at the French Open.
Rafael Nadal - 8.5 games v Jannik Sinner: This will be the third time Jannik Sinner will have a shot at trying to beat Rafael Nadal on a clay court having lost here at the French Open in Autumn 2020 and in Rome last month. The young Italian is another with a really bright future in the game, but Jannik Sinner will know there is still a considerable gap to bridge to beat someone like Nadal on this surface.
All five sets played between these two players have been won by Rafael Nadal, although all but one of those has seen both players win at least four games. They have both been competitive matches and Jannik Sinner will feel he could have turned a couple of those sets in his favour on another day, particularly the first set the pair played in Paris last year.
However, Rafael Nadal has seemingly been much happier with the match up since that first set and he created almost four time as many break points in his win over Sinner at the Rome Masters than the Italian was able to manage. The difference was that Rafael Nadal was not nearly as efficient with converting those as Jannik Sinner and he could have easily run away with the match by a much clearer margin than the one we saw.
In their two previous matches, Rafael Nadal has held 80% of his service games played compared with Jannik Sinner's 56% mark and that is a huge difference. Over the best of five set format we should see Rafael Nadal break clear of a younger opponent that will make some flashy shots and look really good at times, but who may not have the consistency to perform at the level he needs for as long as he needs it.
This has not been a vintage clay court season from Rafael Nadal, but he is still playing at a very high level on the surface and stronger than the majority of other players that will be looking to win the title here. His return game has looked very good in the last two Rounds which has to be a concern for Sinner when you consider the impact Rafael Nadal has had against his serve in both previous matches.
The Spaniard who has dominated the French Open has also been serving pretty efficiently in the tournament too and I think Rafael Nadal will be able to find the breaks of serve to cover a huge number. I like Jannik Sinner and what is capable of doing in his career, but the Rafael Nadal intensity has been too much for him so far at this stage of his career and the Italian will have to perform at a level he has rarely found.
Much will depend on how well Rafael Nadal serves, but he was largely in control of that side of his tennis in the win over Jannik Sinner in Rome and he can beat the young Italian for the third time in nine months on the clay courts.
Diego Schwartzman - 1.5 sets v Jan-Lennard Struff: When the draw for the French Open was made you would have probably got some decent odds on one of either Diego Sebastian Schwartzman or Jan-Lennard Struff making the last eight in the tournament. The former was 7-6 on the clay courts and the latter had compiled an 8-6 record, while the numbers did not really indicate that either was going to be able to put the tennis together to move through to the second week.
Jan-Lennard Struff has the standout win out of the two players having beaten Andrey Rublev in the First Round, but he has not settled for an upset and won back to back matches in straight sets to ensure he should have plenty of freshness for the second week of the French Open. However, both of those wins have come against opponents Ranked 97 or lower in the World Rankings, while Diego Sebastian Schwartzman has not faced anyone Ranked above World Number 56.
He has made short work of opponents which is all you could have asked of him and Schwartzman has spent considerably less time on the court than Struff. The Argentinian has yet to drop a set in the tournament, but he has barely been losing games either with the most given up in a single set being four games.
The serve has been very important for Diego Schwartzman, but you do wonder if he can maintain those numbers on a clay court against stronger opponents. While Jan-Lennard Struff is not exactly known for his returning, he has created at least eleven break points in all three matches played so far this week and the breaks have followed.
Diego Sebastian Schwartzman has been returning well this week too and that remains a strength of his game and one that can be the difference maker on the day despite the big first serve possessed by Jan-Lennard Struff. Both players have to be targeting the second serves in particularly, but the feeling is that Schwartzman is a bit more consistent in his returning than the German and that may play out on the day.
Jan-Lennard Struff won their last meeting in 2019 on a hard court, but it was Schwartzman who won their sole clay court match back in 2017. That is largely irrelevant now, but Diego Schwartzman will feel he has had enough of an impact on the return of serve to be pretty confident with this match up and I think he can get past his bigger opponent in three or four sets on Monday.
Barbora Krejcikova - 3.5 games v Sloane Stephens: There have been one or two signs that Sloane Stephens is getting back to something like her best during this clay court season, but the wins in the French Open may be refilling the confidence for the former US Open Champion. For a few seasons it did look like Stephens was going to be a player that would be dangerous in any Grand Slam as long as she was able to win a couple of matches to get some momentum behind her, but in more recent times the questions have been about whether Stephens still has the desire to be one of the top players on the Tour.
It is a question that only Sloane Stephens can truly answer, but she is back in the second week at the French Open and has looked much better in her last two matches having struggled to see off Carla Suarez Navarro in the First Round. Some of the emotions around that match may have had an impact on the Stephens level of performance, but she will be going into the Fourth Round looking to complete a hat-trick of wins over opponents from the Czech Republic.
Sloane Stephens has produced back to back strong wins over Karolina Pliskova and Karolina Muchova in the last two Rounds and she has been producing at a solid level in those deserved wins. The serve has been effective and it has allowed the American to get her teeth into return games which has been important for her to kick on past those two players.
However, Sloane Stephens may be the first to admit that a match against Barbora Krejcikova is another level upwards in terms of opponent.
After being known as a very good Doubles player, Krejcikova has become more than a competent Singles player over the last two years and she has been playing with real confidence in Paris this week. She reached the Fourth Round at Roland Garros in 2020 and Barbora Krejcikova has already matched that run after a positive performance in the win over Elina Svitolina in the Third Round.
Barbora Krejcikova has been playing slightly better than Sloane Stephens in Paris and I do think she has shown is a very good clay court player.
The key to the match is going to be which of these players is able to get more out of their strength- Barbora Krejcikova has a good serve for the clay courts, but Sloane Stephens prides herself on her return game and that looks like being the key to the outcome of this Fourth Round match.
The American is more experienced having been to the latter stages of multiple Grand Slams as a Singles player, but I do think Krejcikova is the better clay courter and can ultimately find a way to show that here. The layers are right to believe this may be a close match, but I think Barbora Krejcikova will find her way past a former Grand Slam Champion and continue her run of eight straight wins on the surface since a very competitive loss to French Open favourite Iga Swiatek.
MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 9.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 8.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Diego Sebastian Schwartzman - 1.5 Sets @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Barbora Krejcikova - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Ons Jabeur + 3.5 Games @ 1.75 Coral (2 Units)
Maria Sakkari - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Marta Kostyuk + 6.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
French Open Update: 37-37, - 10.04 Units (148 Units Staked, - 6.78% Yield)
No comments:
Post a Comment