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Monday, 28 June 2021

Wimbledon Tennis Day 1 Picks 2021 (June 28th)

The Covid-19 pandemic had a big impact on many events last year with the likes of the European Championship, Olympics and Copa America postponed and moved into 2021.

In the main the Tennis Majors escaped the issues having seen the Australian Open completed before the pandemic shut down the world, while the likes of the French Open and US Open were played later in 2020 at a time when sports had set up ways to deal with the issues that most were still having to deal with by using bubbles.

The biggest absentee on the Tennis Tour calendar was Wimbledon and it has been two years since a ball was hit on Centre Court.

It all changes on Monday 28th June.

Wimbledon is back, although the London weather has changed for the worse in recent days and it looks like being a very wet opening to the tournament.

Two Courts have roofs these days though and that should mean plenty of tennis is going to be played throughout the fortnight.

Unsurprisingly Novak Djokovic is the favourite to win the Men's event in SW19 and that is down to the fact that he has won fourteen matches in a row at Wimbledon and won back to back titles. After winning the French Open I think Novak Djokovic is deserving of his tag as favourite and he can match the Grand Slam tally of both Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal.

Roger Federer and Andy Murray are two veterans looking to have an impact at this level despite playing very little tennis over the last two years, while some of the young contenders may feel this is a relatively open draw behind Novak Djokovic and will be targeting a place in the Final a week on Sunday.

And the Ladies event is once again looking like it could produce yet another new Grand Slam Champion with none of the leading contenders having a clear edge- Serena Williams may not have many better opportunities to win another Grand Slam considering the experiences she has on the grass compared to the other top names left in the draw.

Getting through the first week and avoiding the dramas that the top Seeds had to deal with in Paris is going to be the key for the top WTA players competing in London this week and from there I do think it will be a wide open tournament and with all players left in the Fourth Round looking like they can go on and win a Grand Slam title.


Over the coming fortnight I will have daily picks from the tournament, but it has been a difficult season.

I am also a little wary that the lack of grass court tennis played over the last two years will have impacted players as they try and find their feet on the surface in what is a small portion of the Tennis Tour.

That may lead to some early upsets and struggles, but I am looking for a Grand Slam with more consistency for the Tennis Picks than I had at the French Open and maybe see this as the start of a positive last five months of the 2021 season,


Novak Djokovic - 9.5 games v Jack Draper: Fresh off of winning his second French Open title, Novak Djokovic will head into Wimbledon as the favourite to take home Grand Slam title number 20 having won the last two editions of this Slam. Most of the top contenders either don't have the experience or have played enough tennis to truly believe they can master Novak Djokovic in a best of five format at this Grand Slam, but the World Number 1 could potentially be at his most vulnerable early.

That is down to the fact he hasn't played much tennis since Roland Garros and only had a brief time playing on the grass in Doubles action prior to the start of Wimbledon. In saying that, Novak Djokovic has become the top grass court player in the world in recent seasons and I think it is a huge challenge for anyone the faces him across the next fortnight.

First up is a British player that has been handed a Wild Card into the main draw- Jack Draper is 19 years old and is at a career best Ranking of 250 in the world, and he did win two matches at Queens Club in preparation for this Grand Slam before losing to Cameron Norrie in straight sets.

Jack Draper may feel he has nothing to lose, but it is going to need a monumental effort from him to make this a competitive First Round match. That means serving at his very best, but Draper has only held in 78% of service games played on the grass over the last month and now has to deal with what many will consider to be the greatest return player in the history of tennis.

Winning in dominant fashion to cover spreads like this one is not easy on a grass court and with the match potentially being played under the roof it will be a big spread for Novak Djokovic to overcome. However, I do think the Serb is playing at such a level and with such a confidence that he can move through the gears and wear down a young player that has simply not been asked to play at the level he will need for as long as he will need often enough in his career to this point.

In the last two Wimbledon titles won by Novak Djokovic, he would have covered this number of games in five of his eight wins before the Quarter Final and I think he can do the same here. As well as Jack Draper played at Queens, he was beaten pretty routinely by Cameron Norrie and now faces someone who can put his serve under intense pressure throughout the match which may eventually lead to a set or two being won with a couple of breaks of serve.

That should give Novak Djokovic every chance to open the defence of his back to back Wimbledon titles with a good looking win against a young opponent that can only use the experience positively in the years to come.


Roberto Bautista Agut - 5.5 games v John Millman: Two years ago Roberto Bautista Agut had to re-arrange his stag party that had been arranged for the second week of Wimbledon after an unexpected run to the Semi Final. He was eventually beaten in four sets by Novak Djokovic, but Roberto Bautista Agut has long been comfortable on the grass courts and will be hoping for another run deep into the second week of the tournament.

The build up to Wimbledon has not been idea with Roberto Bautista Agut compiling a 1-2 record on the grass, but his numbers have remained relatively decent. He would certainly like to get more out of the return of serve, but over the best of five set format there should be time for Bautista Agut to build his rhythm in this First Round match.

There will also be a comfort level in facing John Millman against whom Roberto Bautista Agut has a 5-1 head to head and has beaten him in both previous Grand Slam matches. None of those have been easy, but Bautista Agut can get his teeth into the return games and that will always make the Spaniard believe he has the edge in a match up like this one.

John Millman is a relatively comfortable grass court player, but he is only 2-2 in warm up matches and suffered a couple of one sided losses to Alex De Minaur and Lorenzo Sonego. While being fairly consistent on this surface, the Australian has struggled with his return aspect on the grass courts and I expect that to show up in this match against Roberto Bautista Agut.

In their previous matches Roberto Bautista Agut has held serve in 81% of service games played compared with John Millman's 60% mark and that is a real difference which should be magnified in the best of five set format. Their two previous Grand Slam meetings have both gone at least four sets, but in each one Roberto Bautista Agut has been leading 2-0 and in the six sets won by the Spaniard, John Millman has only managed to win as many as four games in one of those.

The feeling is that this is a match that will see some long rallies develop and it could be a grinder at times, but the superior serving of Roberto Bautista Agut should come to the fore. He is a decent returner too and I think Bautista Agut will find enough breaks to get over this handicap mark even if the match goes at least four sets.

I expect John Millman to battle as hard as he always does, but Roberto Bautista Agut can move through to the Second Round with a good win to open his Wimbledon account for 2021.


Andreas Seppi - 1.5 sets v Joao Sousa: Two veterans of the ATP Tour meet in the First Round at Wimbledon and both Andreas Seppi and Joao Sousa likely know they won't have too many more Grand Slams in them as form begins to let them down.

Working your way back into the main draw of Slam events through the Qualifiers is a tough task for players who have spent as long on the Tour as these two have, but Seppi is close to slipping out of the top 100 and Joao Sousa already has fallen.

Qualifying losses has become a painful lesson for Joao Sousa of late and he was struggling in pre-Wimbledon warm up events for any kind of consistency. He can actually serve pretty effectively on the grass courts which makes Joao Sousa potentially dangerous in this opening match, but the return of serve has been an issue and you can't underestimate what a loss of confidence can do to any player when the margins between wins and losses are as fine as they are in this sport.

Andreas Seppi will certainly be heading into the First Round match with more belief having Qualified for the Eastbourne main draw last week and finishing up in the Quarter Final. He did benefit by entering the draw as a Lucky Loser, but Seppi took advantage and in his latter years he has been efficient on the grass courts.

I do give him the edge on this surface against an opponent who has pushed Seppi in previous matches- it is Joao Sousa who leads the head to head 3-2, but Andreas Seppi has arguably been the better player in each of the last three matches between them and I think this is a surface on which he will feel he is the superior player.

While I think Joao Sousa has a slightly better serve of the two players, it is the Andreas Seppi return game that may make the difference in this match and I think it will be the veteran Italian who progresses. With the losses piling up behind Sousa over the last twelve months, I think Andreas Seppi is likely to win this match in three or four sets.


Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera-Kevin Anderson over 37.5 games: Three years ago Kevin Anderson reached the Wimbledon Final and he reached his career best World Ranking of number 5 in the days after that tournament concluded.

The years have been hard to Anderson since, especially the last eighteen months, as injuries have piled up and the big South African has dropped out of the top 100. It is going to be difficult for Kevin Anderson to turn things around at 35 years old, but he is trying to rediscover some of the form and confidence.

Kevin Anderson has produced a 2-3 record on the grass courts in the build up to Wimbledon and his return from injury has been a difficult one with a losing record over a 52 week period. However, the big serve is still a major weapon for Anderson who has held over 93% of the service games played on the grass over the last three weeks and he will feel his experience on the surface is one that cannot be ignored.

That experience is considerably greater than Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera brings to the table- before entering the Wimbledon Qualifiers, Vera had played a single grass court match as a professional and so his three wins over the last week will have been surprising, although ones that can build some confidence.

At 23 years old Barrios Vera is at a career high World Ranking, but he is still outside the top 200 and the reality is that it would be an upset if he was to win this match. However, the Chilean has been serving well in his three wins in the Qualifiers and that might give him every opportunity to win at least a set and push this match over the total game line set.

The Kevin Anderson return game is one that can be an issue and especially on the faster surfaces, but I think he may just edge through to the Second Round.

Ultimately I do think the veteran may need four sets to get this done and that should be enough to see the match surpass the total.

MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 9.5 Games @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Roberto Bautista Agut - 5.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Andreas Seppi - 1.5 Sets @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera-Kevin Anderson Over 37.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Marton Fucsovics + 1.5 Sets @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Arthur Rinderknech - 1.5 Sets @ 2.20 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Lloyd Harris - 1.5 Sets @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Liam Broady - 1.5 Sets @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Fabio Fognini - 1.5 Sets @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Alex De Minaur - 1.5 Sets @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Svetlana Kuznetsova - 4.5 Games @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Madison Keys - 5.5 Games @ 2.20 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Sofia Kenin - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Petra Martic - 4.5 Games @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Jessica Pegula - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Donna Vekic - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Karolina Pliskova - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Liudmila Samsonova - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

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