It has been another day of 'upsets' in the Women's draw at the French Open, but there are some intriguing matches to come before we get to find out who will become the latest Champion here.
Iga Swiatek has looked strong and if you swapped her with any player in the bottom half I would think she would be a clear favourite, although I think she remains the one to beat in the draw.
The Men's draw is also extremely top heavy which means there are some potentially special matches to come from Sunday through to the following weekend. Rafael Nadal, like Iga Swiatek, is the defending Champion that remains the one to beat in the draw, although the challenges are much greater getting into the Final from the top half compared with the bottom.
The Fourth Round gets underway on Sunday when the second week of the tournament officially begins, and there does look to be plenty of good Tennis to come our way. I will not really have a lot of time to sit in front of a television screen and enjoy the matches as I would have usually liked, but you can read my thoughts on some of the matches below as well as the Tennis Picks from the day's action.
Alexander Zverev-Kei Nishikori over 33.5 games: There has been a considerable amount of time spent on the courts in Paris by Kei Nishikori over the first week of the tournament and I do think that is being factored into the price for this Fourth Round match. While he has benefited from getting through the Third Round after a single set was completed, Nishikori has spent a couple of hours more on the courts than Alexander Zverev and that is largely down to having two tough five setters to open the tournament.
His opponent has also been involved in a five setter, but Alexander Zverev dominated the last three sets of the opening Round victory and he has needed less than three hours in each of his three wins to move through the door. In his initial forays into the second week in Paris, Alexander Zverev was guilty of being involved in grinders which wore him down by the time the tougher tests came around, but he has been making life easier and easier through the first three Rounds and has won nine sets in succession.
That is hugely important for the German player, although Zverev will know that this is the toughest opponent he would have faced in the French Open to this point of the tournament.
He does have a 4-1 lead in the head to head over Kei Nishikori and has beaten him at both the Madrid Masters and Rome Masters already in 2021, although the latter was a much closer match in what were conditions that would be more similar to Paris than the ones in Madrid. It did come at the end of a week in which Alexander Zverev had gone all the way to win the Madrid Masters though and I do think this is a match that up will be comfortable for the higher Ranked player when all is said and done.
As long as Alexander Zverev is focused he will understand that there will be swings in momentum during the course of this Fourth Round match, but the rhythm should be one that he is comfortable with. Kei Nishikori likes to play from the back of the court and you would think that ultimately Alexander Zverev will come out on top even if it takes four or five sets to get the job done.
Kei Nishikori is playing well enough at the French Open to really give Zverev an examination, and the return of serve has been a big weapon for him. His serve can be a little erratic and Nishikori has been broken twelve times already in this tournament which is far more than Alexander Zverev who has lost his own serve nine times.
However, there is enough vulnerability in the Alexander Zverev serve to offer Kei Nishikori some confidence and I would be surprised if he wilts in this Fourth Round match. There is no doubt that Zverev is playing the better tennis overall during this clay court portion of the season, but Kei Nishikori has shown enough in Paris to believe he can be competitive and their head to head suggests the same.
In their three previous clay court matches, two have needed a final set decider even in the best of three set format. While Alexander Zverev has the narrow edge in terms of points won behind serve and percentage of service games held, Kei Nishikori has performed well enough in this tournament to believe he can steal a set somewhere along the way in this match and I think the total games line is one that expects this to be a match dominated by the favourite.
I don't think that will be the case and I think this could be a tough Fourth Round match.
Federico Delbonis - 1.5 games v Alejandro Davidovich Fokina: There wouldn't have been too many people who filled out a pre-tournament bracket that may have picked this as a potential Fourth Round match, but both Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and Federico Delbonis deserve their spots after upset wins in the Third Round.
It is the second Grand Slam in succession in which Alejandro Davidovich Fokina has reached the second week, although he was beaten in the Fourth Round at the US Open in 2020. However, the form on the clay courts in 2021 and his run here in Paris underlines the progress that the Spaniard is making and at 22 years old he is on an upwards curve.
The win over Casper Ruud in the Third Round was a special one for Alejandro Davidovich Fokina having battled for over four and a half hours to upset one of the dark horses in the draw. It isn't easy backing up those kind of wins when you don't have the experience of winning matches of that stature, but it is all the tougher when a player has had to win back to back five setters and spent a huge amount of physical and emotional effort to reach the Fourth Round.
At least Alejandro Davidovich Fokina is facing someone that may have some nerves as Federico Delbonis has reached the second week of a Major for the first time in his career. The Argentinian has been a solid clay courter throughout his career, which is not a surprise, but his record at the French Open has been surprisingly poor and at 30 years old you could not really blame Delbonis for believing his time to make an impact at this level had come and gone.
The run here comes after Federico Delbonis reached the Quarter Final of a Master tournament for the first time in Rome last month and that should mean a confident player is taking to the court. Wins over Pablo Andujar and Fabio Fognini have to be respected, and Federico Delbonis should be by far and away the fresher player in this one.
Much is going to depend on whether Federico Delbonis can handle the nerves of trying to earn a place in the Quarter Final of a Slam. That is never an easy task, but he does look to have a good opponent in front of him merely for the fact that Alejandro Davidovich Fokina has to be short of energy.
Federico Delbonis has played well in the French Open and the return aspect of his tennis has been working well enough to take advantage of the Davidovich Fokina serve that has allowed an eye-watering 37 break points in his last two matches. The latter has invested a lot to get through to the Fourth Round for the first time in Paris, and I do think Federico Delbonis will be able to just outlast Alejandro Davidovich Fokina over four sets.
Stefanos Tsitsipas - 6.5 games v Pablo Carreno Busta: You can always feel how much belief a player has in their own game by their reaction to adversity within a match and I think Stefanos Tsitsipas is very confident in his ability on a clay court. I was very impressed with the way he stuck with the Third Round match against John Isner from a mental point of view having weathered the early aggression and moved through the gears to record a comfortable win.
In the bottom half of the Men's draw, Stefanos Tsitsipas looks the stand out name to reach his first Grand Slam Final having come close to doing it here before. He is rounding into a very strong all-court player, but the Greek star still looks at his best on the clay courts and his form in 2021 has made him a real contender at the French Open.
Stefanos Tsitsipas has looked good through the first week at the tournament and it is no surprise to see him set as a strong favourite to make another Quarter Final here.
However, I think Tsitsipas will be the first to admit that this is going to be a tough Fourth Round match against the Spaniard Pablo Carreno Busta who has put another solid clay court campaign together. The 29 year old former top ten Ranked player is someone who has had strong runs on the hard courts in previous Slams played, but he will be looking for a third Quarter Final in Paris and Carreno Busta has played well enough over the last few days to be given a lot of respect.
Wins over Norbert Gombos, Enzo Couacaud and Steve Johnson have all come in relatively straight-forward fashion, but Pablo Carreno Busta is going to need to lift his game if he is going to give Stefanos Tsitsipas things to think about. So far the Spaniard has served well in the tournament, but this is a different level of opponent in front of him and I think Carreno Busta will be put under significant more pressure than he has faced from his first three opponents.
Pablo Carreno Busta is someone who can excel on the return side of his tennis though and I think that will at least make this a fun match to watch. There should be some positive rallies and both players will be able to showcase their ability, but the feeling is that Stefanos Tsitsipas is too consistent, too strong and ultimately the better clay courter and will be able to wear down Pablo Carreno Busta.
Their head to head suggests that could be the case with Stefanos Tsitsipas winning both previous matches, one on the hard courts and one on clay.
In those matches, Stefanos Tsitsipas has been able to hold 90% of his service games compared with Pablo Carreno Busta managing that in 65% of his own service games played. That is a huge differential and I do think the Spaniard has the more vulnerable serve which Tsitsipas can eventually begin to wear down and put Carreno Busta under the kind of pressure that will see him break down.
At the end of this Fourth Round match, I would expect Stefanos Tsitsipas to have created a lot more break points than Pablo Carreno Busta and he should be able to cover this handicap mark as long as he doesn't play too many loose service games.
Cristian Garin + 4.5 games v Daniil Medvedev: I have backed Daniil Medvedev a couple of times during this tournament and that is a surprise considering his really poor form on the clay courts throughout his career. He had made it clear that he doesn't really appreciate the red dirt, but Medvedev is a smart tennis player and clearly has been working on his game to become more effective on the surface.
Even then there had been little to suggest that the Russian was going to be involved in the second week of the French Open having lost early in Madrid and Rome, although he did beat Alejandro Davidovich Fokina on the surface which is not to be ignored. Defeats to Aslan Karatsev and Cristian Garin would have knocked Daniil Medvedev's confidence, but I think he has made use of what has been a kind draw for the Number 2 Seed at the French Open.
Wins over Alexander Bublik, Tommy Paul and Reilly Opelka are not exactly over some of the top clay courters in the world, but Opelka in particular had played well before the French Open which underlines an improved performance from Daniil Medvedev. Most impressive are the numbers and Medvedev has been a dominant winner in his three matches here and only dropped a single set which means he should enter the second week feeling really good about his chances.
Daniil Medvedev will be looking for redemption having been beaten by Cristian Garin in Madrid in three sets, although the Chilean will feel he should have gotten the job done in straight sets. Cristian Garin only faced a single break point on the day and saved that, while he broke the Medvedev three times from the nine break points created and ultimately ran out a really strong winner.
One of the criticisms of Garin could be seen in that match though- he should have won in straight sets, but ultimately made life more difficult for himself than it needed to be and that is something that has been a regular occurrence for the 25 year old. We have seen that in this tournament as Garin has been forced to work very hard in his three wins and needed at least four sets each time, despite largely being the better player in those matches.
The almost ten hours spent on the court to win three matches is a major concern for Cristian Garin, but the layers look to have perhaps overestimated the three wins earned by Daniil Medvedev earlier in the tournament. When these two met in Madrid, Cristian Garin was a narrow underdog, but his price has expanded perhaps due to the form of Daniil Medvedev in Paris and the long, drawn out matches Garin has been involved in.
However, if these two had met earlier in the tournament I think Cristian Garin would have perhaps been the narrow favourite and is perhaps being underestimated here. He has had a day off between matches and his Third Round win was more comfortable than the earlier two which should mean Garin is ready to compete and I do think the layers are over-rating Medvedev after three wins over non-clay courters.
Cristian Garin is very comfortable on the surface and I think he will push Daniil Medvedev all the way even if fatigue eventually sees him come up short. Either way, this looks a lot of games to be giving to the underdog and I think Cristian Garin can cover the mark even in a losing effort.
MY PICKS: Alexander Zverev-Kei Nishikori Over 33.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Federico Delbonis - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Stefanos Tsitsipas - 6.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Cristian Garin + 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Victoria Azarenka - 2.5 Games @ 1.70 Coral (2 Units)
Marketa Vondrousova + 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Coral (2 Units)
French Open Update: 35-33, - 5.14 Units (136 Units Staked, - 3.78% Yield)
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