The rest of the Conference Semi Finals are going to begin later in the weekend and through to early next week with the first four games all set to be played by the end of the evening on Monday 14th June.
With that in mind, this is a post in which the NBA PlayOff Picks from those opening four games of each Series will be placed beginning with the Milwaukee Bucks travelling to the Brooklyn Nets. It will be updated daily with new Picks and thoughts on the Series as they develop.
Saturday 5th June
Milwaukee Bucks @ Brooklyn Nets Game 1 Pick: There is one Western Conference First Round Series that has moved through to Game 7 which will be completed this weekend, but things were much smoother for teams in the East. All four playing in the next Round were able to move through in five games or fewer so there has been ample time for the top names to rest and recover.
No one will doubt that the best of the Conference Semi Finals Series will be played in the Eastern Conference when the Number 2 Seeded Brooklyn Nets meet the Number 3 Seeded Milwaukee Bucks over the best of seven Series. The winner might even feel they are favourites to go all the way to the NBA Finals when you think of injury to Joel Embiid which has yet to be cleared up by the Philadelphia 76ers.
Game 1 is played in Brooklyn on Saturday night as the Conference Semi Finals get underway this weekend and the Nets are considered the favourite.
They saw off the Boston Celtics in a gentleman's sweep and the Big Three looked to be pretty comfortable with one another. You do have to wonder how Kevin Durant, James Harden and Kyrie Irving will mesh when it comes to the close games against better opposition than the Celtics, but I think they are the right favourites in this one.
That is especially the case for the opening game despite the Milwaukee Bucks looking very impressing in sweeping the Miami Heat who beat them in the PlayOffs last season. The additions to the roster have certainly given the Bucks a boost, but they suffered a really bad injury in the post-season which may have shifted the momentum from them.
Donte DiVincenzo may not have the same level of notoriety around the League as some of the big names involved in this Series, but his absence is a huge blow for the Milwaukee Bucks. The Defensive side is the strength of DiVincenzo's game, and the loss of that is going to impact this Series when you think of the Big Three the Brooklyn Nets bring to the court.
It is a situation that may need some adjustments for the Milwaukee Bucks to feel really good about things and I think they may not have enough idea as to how to approach things in Game 1. It is a learning experience for a powerful Offensive team and one that may not want to get into too many shoot-outs considering the consistency Brooklyn will bring to the court.
The Bucks have not played well as an underdog and have not covered in that spot in their last five road games as the dog. They have been well rested, but Milwaukee are 1-3-1 against the spread in their last five games when playing with three or more days rest between games and it may take a bit of time to get the rhythm going.
It can be dangerous against a team like Brooklyn who are 10-1 against the spread in their last eleven as the home favourite.
I expect some big shots to be drained by both teams and I think this is going to be a fun Series, but the injury in the Milwaukee camp and with Brooklyn being at home, I think the Nets cover in Game 1.
Sunday 6th June
Atlanta Hawks @ Philadelphia 76ers Game 1 Pick: Much of the attention of the fans is going to be focused on the injury status of Joel Embiid as the Philadelphia 76ers prepare for their Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Semi Final PlayOff Series with the Atlanta Hawks. The star player for the 76ers has missed a number of games already for the team this season and Philadelphia have struggled without him as the pressure shifts to their role players to find enough points to make up for the Joel Embiid absence.
The feeling is that Game 1 will come too soon for Joel Embiid, but I do think Doc Rivers will have been preparing his team to deal without their main player. The 76ers responded to his absence by closing the First Round Series with the Washington Wizards in five games and this is a team that was good enough to earn the Number 1 Seed in the Eastern Conference.
I expect the roster to rally together in front of a loud home crowd and the 76ers did blow out the Atlanta Hawks twice here already this season. Those two wins came in April and the 76ers did have Joel Embiid in the line up, but it shows they are capable of handing the new look Hawks who have been a different team ever since Nate McMillan was given the Head Coaching role with Atlanta.
The Hawks saw off the New York Knicks in the First Round despite being a lower Seed, and it was their strong Offensive performances which saw them break down the Knicks. Trae Young had a big Series, but he will know this is another tough Defensive unit in front of him and one that should be able to spark better and more consistent Offense than the New York Knicks were able to do.
Atlanta did win two road games at Madison Square Garden so they should not be intimidated to play here, while Clint Capela could have a big game knowing Joel Embiid is not there to clog up the paint.
Even then I don't think it is wise to ignore the difference in levels being produced by the Hawks when they play at home compared with how they have played on the road. This is a team that has not been as efficient with their shooting on the road and the Philadelphia 76ers are capable on the Defensive side of the court to make up for the absence of Embiid for a couple of games.
The 76ers have been a strong home favourite to back and I think they will be given the push by the crowd that helps secure a win and a cover.
They will have to guard against Trae Young and make sure he is not able to inspire a young Atlanta team which has plenty of talent on the roster. However, I think the 76ers will rally to make up for the absence of their top player and that should see the roster come together to make sure they hold serve at home in Game 1 of this Series.
Monday 7th June
Milwaukee Bucks @ Boston Celtics Game 2 Pick: The only injury of note before this Eastern Conference Semi Final Series began was on the Milwaukee Bucks side of the locker rooms with Donte DiVincenzo ruled out for the Series. He will remain a big miss, but the Brooklyn Nets will be without a key contributor in Game 2 after James Harden was forced to leave Game 1 after just 43 seconds and has been ruled out for this one on Monday.
The Nets fans will be hoping Harden is not going to be an extended miss for them, but the team rallied without one of the Big Three and were dominant in the middle two Quarters of Game 1 to take a lead in the Series.
No one will have been surprised by the impact the likes of Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant had on the opening game of this Series, but it was the role players who made up for the absence of James Harden. Both Joe Harris and Blake Griffin had big games for the Nets and the feeling is that they will need to continue to produce if they are going to hold serve on Home Court and be able to push on and earn their place in the Eastern Conference Finals later this month.
It would be easy to get carried away about one game, but I did mention the lay off for the Milwaukee Bucks could have broken their rhythm. They had swept the Miami Heat and not played since the previous Saturday and there was evidence of some rustiness with the Bucks particularly poor from the three point mark despite their strength from that range over the course of the season.
Milwaukee were stronger inside the paint and they were pretty active on the boards, but the Bucks will believe they can't be as poor from three point range again. There was a similarity to the opening performance against the Miami Heat in the First Round before the Bucks righted their shooting eyes and dominated Game 2 and I certainly expect to see a reaction from their shooters.
Some of the shots that were being missed came from wide open looks and getting the same in Game 2 will surely see the Bucks produce a lot better than the 6/30 shooting effort we saw in Game 1. Plenty have had something to say about that, but I don't think Milwaukee will panic about one game and I certainly think they are capable of turning the tables on Brooklyn.
If they are even slightly better at knocking down those three pointers, the Bucks should underline their dominance from inside the paint and I can see them levelling up this Series.
The trends are against the Milwaukee Bucks, but I expect an all-around better effort from The Deer and they should be able to get into a position to have every chance of earning an upset.
Denver Nuggets @ Phoenix Suns Game 1 Pick: Before the First Round of the NBA PlayOffs, both the Denver Nuggets and the Phoenix Suns were considered underdogs in their Series. That might have surprised the players more than the fans considering they were both higher Seeds than the teams they were facing, but we shouldn't underestimate how well the Nuggets and Suns have done to get to this stage of the PlayOffs.
Both teams needed six games to see off the Portland Trail Blazers and Los Angeles Lakers which is why this Western Conference Semi Final Series gets underway on Monday.
A banged up Denver Nuggets had been blown out by the Portland Trail Blazers in the final game of the regular season and had 2-2 in the First Round Series the momentum was with the Trail Blazers. Game 5 was the pivotal one decided in multiple Overtimes and the Nuggets were good enough to just about get over the line, while they also showed determination to rally from a big deficit to win on the road and avoid the pressure on an elimination game.
You have to give the Nuggets a lot of credit and with Nikola Jokic continuing to perform at a very high level they do have a chance in this Series.
However, the Nuggets have another tough test in front of them when they face a confident Phoenix Suns team that have proved worthy of holding the Number 2 Seed in the Western Conference. Like Denver, Phoenix were at 2-2 in the First Round against the defending Champions Los Angeles Lakers and the big question was how much belief and experience this young team had to beat a LeBron James led team.
Phoenix didn't just win those remaining two games, but they blew out the Lakers in the first one and could have blown them out on the road in Game 6 too.
Chris Paul's shoulder continues to be an issue that the Suns will have to deal with, but he has had a few days to just rest up and get ready for the start of the Conference Semi Finals. That is important for Phoenix who know how important the veteran is to their team, but especially so as Paul would likely dominate the back court against a Denver team who are without Jamal Murray.
There has been a few days off for both teams which may have broken some of the rhythm and momentum both the Nuggets and Suns believe they have, but I think both teams will quickly pick up their play.
Denver did leave Phoenix with back to back Overtime wins back in January, but that was before losing Murray who is such a key player for them. The Nuggets have shown they can still be very competitive without Jamal Murray and especially with Nikola Jokic playing at the level he is, but I think the Suns can earn a measure of revenge by winning Game 1 of this Series and covering this number.
Phoenix have been playing well as the home favourite and I think their fans can carry them through a couple of difficult moments in this opening game of the best of seven Series. Some big late buckets can see them climb above this line and earn a cover to start.
Tuesday 8th June
Atlanta Hawks @ Philadelphia 76ers Game 2 Pick: All of the talk before Game 1 of this Series was about the availability of Joel Embiid for the Philadelphia 76ers, but he did not just suit up, but also brought in Triple H from the WWE to pump up the crowd. That certainly fired things up, but the 76ers unfortunately seemed to fire up the Atlanta Hawks plenty too and they virtually led wire to wire.
A First Quarter which saw both teams scoring for fun was dominated by the Philadelphia turnovers and you do have to wonder if the players were perhaps distracted by having their best player available. It eventually saw the 76ers trailing by a huge amount by Half Time and it says plenty about the character that Philadelphia were even in a position to have Atlanta thinking about things deep into the Fourth Quarter.
The loss will have hurt and there is some real pressure on Philadelphia who will not want to go Atlanta being 0-2 down in the Series.
I do expect a reaction from a strong team which has performed well at home and I cannot see the 76ers replicating their horrible start to Game 1. It also has to be questioned whether Atlanta can shoot the ball as well as they did in Game 1, while you have to credit the way the 76ers got so close to completing an epic comeback in the opener of this Conference Semi Final Series.
The Hawks have shown they can't be underestimated on the road in this Series and in the PlayOffs in general, but this is a team that is not the same on the road as they are at home. They also dropped Game 2 in the First Round having stolen Game 1 and Home Court from the New York Knicks and I do think the 76ers will be fired up to produce a big reaction.
The 76ers are 9-4-1 against the spread in their last fourteen games following a straight up loss and it is the time for players not called Joel Embiid to step up for them.
They also hold a 5-2 record against the spread in their last seven at home against the Atlanta Hawks who will perhaps relax after stealing Home Court. The fast start and the strong shooting will be tough to replicated for the Hawks and the Game 2 performance in the First Round Series against the New York Knicks suggest they are vulnerable here.
Philadelphia have been strong at home all season and a faster and more consistent start should see them win and cover.
Los Angeles Clippers @ Utah Jazz Game 1 Pick: The First Round of the PlayOffs officially came to an end on Sunday as the Los Angeles Clippers finally won a home game and beat the Dallas Mavericks 4-3. Anything less than a NBA Championship will be seen as a disappointment for this Clippers roster, but a First Round defeat would have been impossible to explain and a huge investment was made to win the last two games of that Series and secure passage into the Western Conference Semi Finals.
The question now is how much the Clippers can possibly have in the tank when facing the Number 1 Seed in the Western Conference and a team that have been resting for a few days. The quick turnaround is far from ideal and having to travel from Dallas to Los Angeles and now on to Utah will also be something the players may just have a few issues dealing with.
An experienced team should be able to handle it, but the Clippers will not have done a lot of work preparing for Game 1 of this Series and could be caught cold.
Utah won their First Round Series with the Memphis Grizzlies in five games and they have been resting since the middle of last week. That is important as it has given Mike Conley a chance to work on the hamstring issues which have bothered him over the last couple of weeks and he looks like being available for the opener of the Semi Final Series.
While the rest is going to be helpful for the Jazz, there is a question about whether the shooting rhythm could be disrupted and especially compared with the Clippers who have only been on the court a couple of days ago. That is a slight concern for the Jazz considering their reliance on the three point shooting, but a healthy Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert give them players that can make things happen on the court and I do like the Jazz to open this Series with a solid win.
Over the Series it may come down to the Clippers Defensive plays in determining whether they can move onto the Western Conference Finals, but in Game 1 I do think a touch of fatigue will be the bigger factor than the potential rest and breaking of the rhythm the Jazz are dealing with in the opener.
Utah took two of the three in the regular season played between the two and that includes the sole game played here in Salt Lake City.
Those results have seen the Jazz improve to 9-3 against the spread in their last twelve against the Los Angeles Clippers and Utah have been a solid home favourite to back down the stretch.
I have to respect how well Los Angeles played on the road in all three games at Dallas in the last Round and they are coming off two strong wins. However, they are 1-6-1 against the spread in their last eight off a straight up win of double digits and I just think there could be a slight letdown from the players after battling so hard to merely make the Semi Final Round of the PlayOffs.
Wednesday 9th June
Denver Nuggets @ Phoenix Suns Game 2 Pick: A tough first half was replaced by a dominant second half from the Phoenix Suns who shook off the court rust to secure a 1-0 lead over the Denver Nuggets in this Western Conference Semi Final Series. Some may have wondered how the Suns would deal with a win over the defending Champions with a young team inexperienced at this level, but veteran presence Chris Paul calmed everyone around him.
He looks like he is over the shoulder issues that have been plaguing him in the post-season, although Chris Paul would love to lead the Suns to another relatively early Series win and earn some more rest before the Conference Finals come around.
In saying that, Paul will be reminding his younger colleagues that they have to expect adjustments and a reaction from the Denver Nuggets who had been leading at half time before being crushed. The injuries to the back court mean they are relying on inconsistent players there, but Denver showed in the First Round that these guys can step up and make the big plays to help them win four of a best of a seven Series.
Nikola Jokic had a quiet game by the lofty standards set by the regular season MVP and I do think the Nuggets will look to get more out of him in the front court. He isn't just a scorer, but Jokic is a provider for those shooters around him, although I do think Denver are going to have to be better Defensively if they are going to slow this Phoenix Suns team which has won four PlayOff games in a row and looked really good doing that.
Adjustments should see Denver respond positively and I do think this will be closer for much longer, but Phoenix are the superior team as long as Chris Paul remains healthy.
The big question for the Nuggets is whether they can get enough Offensive output from someone other than Jokic to avoid being in a big hole before they return home. Some support looks to be coming in the form of Will Barton, but Denver need to make sure they are still in a competitive Series by the time that happens.
Historically Phoenix are not in the greatest spot in Game 2 of this Conference Semi Final Series as hosts off a big win tend to be over-rated in their next game. That shouldn't be something the young players of the Suns are overly concerned about though and this Series feels like one they are going to be in control while the Nuggets are short-handed in the back court.
Thursday 10th June
Brooklyn Nets @ Milwaukee Bucks Game 3 Pick: All the Milwaukee Bucks players and fans will be thinking at this stage of the Eastern Conference Semi Final Series is that the Brooklyn Nets have held serve twice at home to take a 2-0 lead. It does put the Bucks in a bind, but they return home for two games and they have to believe they can make the adjustments to at least get back to Brooklyn with the Series level, although there is pressure on Milwaukee after the blow out loss in Game 2.
It will have hurt all the more that they were beaten by a team that is missing one of the Big Three players on the roster, although you would not have noticed that James Harden has played barely 43 seconds of this Series. Both Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant have stepped up their level a year after missing out with injuries, but it is the role players for the Nets who have been a big inspiration for their two wins.
A heavy amount of artillery is being dropped from three point range and the Milwaukee Bucks have simply not been able to compete from beyond the arc in this Series so far. You have to feel that is going to need to change if the Bucks are going to have any chance of levelling up this Series in the next few days at home, but Milwaukee have struggled to be a decisive Defensive team from the three point range all season.
Instead it is up to their own players to try and match the production of the Nets with a clear advantage inside the paint not making up for the three point differential.
I do think the return home will help the Bucks players and perhaps even cool down some of the impact of the role players for Brooklyn. That should give Milwaukee a chance in Game 3 and teams who have won their first two home games in the Conference Semi Finals have historically had a tough time covering the spread in Game 3.
Add in the fact that the Milwaukee Bucks are a quality team that beat the Brooklyn Nets twice in a row at home last month and who have bounced back from drubbings to record wins and you have to believe the home team can't be nearly as bad as they were in Game 2. The Bucks were beaten by 20 plus points four times this season and won the next game each time and by huge margins too for the main.
Milwaukee have not been a great team to back at the window this season, and especially not compared to the Brooklyn Nets, but I do expect a positive reaction from them. A home team that is 0-2 down in a Series has tended to make very fast starts historically so some will be looking for the Bucks to cover the Half Time Spread, but it is actually the same mark as the full game which shows the layers are not willing to give much away.
The Bucks did cover in both home games played against Brooklyn last month and I think they put in a huge effort to at least drag themselves back into this Series.
Los Angeles Clippers @ Utah Jazz Game 2 Pick: The strong second half was enough for the Utah Jazz to turn the tables on the Los Angeles Clippers who may have been feeling the effects of a seven game First Round Series win over the Dallas Mavericks. A slow start from the Jazz was not a massive surprise considering the lay off, but they also had to deal with Donovan Mitchell's cold which meant their top player struggled through the first half.
Whatever Mitchell took at half time worked a treat though and he was on top form in the second half as he helped the Utah Jazz overcome a deficit and then comfortably see out the Clippers in Game 1. Donovan Mitchell is a perfectionist though and he was more concerned with his own slow start and a late turnover which helped the Clippers have an opportunity to force Overtime.
Ultimately that turnover didn't matter and the Utah Jazz will be looking to back up their win and home serve for a second time in a row at home and shift the pressure onto the Clippers.
And realistically the Los Angeles Clippers won't be too bothered about the fatigue that cost them in Game 1 as long as their top players can refocus and try and steal Home Court away from the Jazz. Los Angeles won all three road games in Dallas in the First Round so they won't be intimidated about winning here, although the Clippers do not have the best record in Salt Lake City having produced a 8-21-1 record against the spread in their last thirty games here.
The hosts do have a very strong record straight up in Game 2s of the NBA PlayOff Conference Semi Final, but it has been a much more mixed bag when it comes to covering the spread. This is not exactly a wide line for the Utah Jazz and it does feel they are perhaps still not as respected by the layers as they should be.
In saying that, I do think Paul George and Kawhi Leonard will respond positively to dropping the opening game of the Series and this could be a close run thing.
Both teams have some strong trends to fall back upon, but I do like the Utah Jazz with the belief that Donovan Mitchell will be that much healthier for Game 2. His second half performance suggests that will be the case and I also think the Jazz have the role players around him that can knock down the big shots to put the Los Angeles Clippers under pressure.
It should be competitive again, but I will stay with the Utah Jazz for Game 2 of the Series.
Saturday 12th June
Utah Jazz @ Los Angeles Clippers Game 3 Pick: Three of the four Conference Semi Final Series have seen the higher Seeded team hold onto home advantage through the first two games of the series. While the Milwaukee Bucks have fought back to move to one behind the Brooklyn Nets, the Denver Nuggets are on the brink of being swept by the Phoenix Suns in what looks a wide open Western Conference.
Now it is the turn of the Los Angeles Clippers who fought tooth and nail to barely find their way into the Conference Semi Final, but who have dropped both games in Utah in different ways. In the first it was the Jazz who needed to rally from behind, but in the second game it was the Utah Jazz who almost allowed a big lead to slip before closing the show on the Clippers.
There won't be much panic in the Clippers locker room, but I do think they have to understand that there is a difference between recovering against the Dallas Mavericks and doing the same against the Number 1 Seed in the West.
Six straight wins for the Utah Jazz has given them plenty of confidence and they have not been solely reliant on Donovan Mitchell either. It was some of the other names on the roster who made the big buckets to close out the Clippers in Game 2 and Utah look like having a team that can score plenty of points which makes it very difficult to knock them off.
The second half performance from the Clippers will give them plenty of encouragement, but the Jazz look like a team that will be able to remain competitive in this game.
It is a lot of points that the Clippers are being asked to cover and they are going to need Kawhi Leonard to try and step up on the Offensive side of the court. At the moment it feels like Leonard is being worn down from trying to slow down Donovan Mitchell and it may be an adjustment that needs to be made to make sure Los Angeles can give their star player the freedom to express himself Offensively rather than wasting it on Defensive assignments.
I do think the Clippers are good enough to change the momentum of this Series, but they didn't cover or win any of their first three home games in the First Round. The Clippers are 1-4 against the spread in their last five as the home favourite and I do think this is going to be a really competitive Game 3 that may come down to the wire.
With that in mind it does feel like the points on offer are hard to ignore with the road team.
MY PICKS: 05/06 Brooklyn Nets - 4 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
06/06 Philadelphia 76ers - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
07/06 Milwaukee Bucks @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
07/06 Phoenix Suns - 5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
08/06 Philadelphia 76ers - 6 Points @ 1.86 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
08/06 Utah Jazz - 3 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
09/06 Phoenix Suns - 5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
10/06 Milwaukee Bucks - 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (1 Unit)
10/06 Utah Jazz - 3 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
12/06 Utah Jazz + 5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
Conference Semi Final Update: 5-3-1, + 1.49 Units (9 Units Staked, + 16.56% Yield)
First Round Final: 21-20, - 0.83 Units (41 Units Staked, - 2.02% Yield)
No comments:
Post a Comment