Two of the four Semi Finals have been put together after a fun Day 10 at the French Open, but the remaining Semi Finalists will be looking to book their places in the last four on Wednesday.
This looks another day for some strong tennis, and I think the favourites to win the title on Saturday and Sunday will be the player that comes out of the top half of both the Men's and Women's tournament being played at the French Open.
We also have more grass court tennis being played in Stuttgart and Nottingham, the first grass court tournaments to be played in a couple of years as the short run to Wimbledon has already begun. A lot of big names are missing, but it is a good chance for those involved this week to get a head-start on the top players on the Tour by earning some experience on their return to the surface.
Novak Djokovic - 6.5 games v Matteo Berrettini: After being given a real scare in the Fourth Round by one Italian, Novak Djokovic now has to face the top player from that nation in order to secure a spot in the Semi Final at Roland Garros for yet another season. There was never a time he can say he played poorly in the Fourth Round win over Lorenzo Musetti, but Novak Djokovic may be a little frustrated that he was so loose on the big points in the first two sets which allowed his opponent to build a 2-0 lead in sets.
The moment he lost the second set Tie-Breaker, Novak Djokovic took control of the match and long before any injury issues were raised by Musetti who was forced to pull out when just two games away from losing anyway.
It does mean you can put a slight asterisk on the numbers, but Djokovic was very strong in the first two sets too and a similar level may give him every chance of not only winning this match, but making it a lot more comfortable than the last Round was. Novak Djokovic may feel that Lorenzo Musetti came into the match with nothing to lose, but expectations are much grander for the 25 year old Matteo Berrettini who has surged into the top ten of the World Rankings over the last eighteen months.
I will admit that I am a big fan of the Berrettini overall game, although there are still some weaknesses he will want to address if he is really going to win a Grand Slam. The return of serve is still a work in progress, but Matteo Berrettini should be very fresh for this match having received a walkover in the last Round when Roger Federer withdrew from the tournament.
Matteo Berrettini has played really well in Paris over the first week and the big serve and forehand combination has worked wonderfully for him. The Italian has dropped serve just twice in the French Open and it has allowed him to take chances on the return with at least ten break points created in each win, although you do have to factor in the level of those opponents.
This is a huge step up in class and it can't be ignored that Matteo Berrettini has built his strong clay court season in 2021 by beating those players lower down the World Ranking. Credit him for that, but also note he is 0-2 against top 20 Ranked opponents on the clay and that is the next step he needs to take in his career if he is really going to be challenging for the biggest prizes on the Tour.
Both defeats to Stefanos Tsitsipas and Alexander Zverev have been relatively comfortable after a tight first set and you do have to feel that Novak Djokovic will build plenty of pressure with his return of serve. The World Number 1 has been playing at a very high level in the French Open and his return should be able to hurt Berrettini, especially with the backhand being largely predictable and attackable.
This match should be much tighter than the one they played at the ATP World Tour Finals in November 2019 which Novak Djokovic dominated for the loss of three games, but I do think the Serb will get on top of Matteo Berrettini over the two plus hours they are going to spend on the court.
As good as the clay court season has been for Berrettini, his numbers shrink drastically when he has come up against some of the top names on the Tour and now he is facing the best. Novak Djokovic is arguably the second best clay courter behind Rafael Nadal too and I think his return and improving serve will be too much for a second Italian in succession.
Diego Sebastian Schwartzman + 9.5 games v Rafael Nadal: It is never easy going up against Rafael Nadal on a clay court and not when he is picking up his form as he looks to have done in the last three Rounds. While the long-time Champion in Roland Garros will feel there is still room for improvement on the serve, Rafael Nadal's serve is putting opponents under significant pressure and he will be confident of doing the same in this one.
Unsurprisingly Rafael Nadal is a big favourite to beat Diego Sebastian Schwartzman who had a tougher time in the Fourth Round than his own straight sets victory will suggest. The Argentinian will at least feel he has come into this match in as good a shape as he can though having needed a little over nine hours to make his way through the first four opponents and that at least gives Schwartzman some kind of chance for the upset.
It is a chance, but a very small one in reality despite the fact that it was Diego Sebastian Schwartzman who won when these two met in Rome last year. They did also meet in the French Open when Rafael Nadal recorded a very comfortable win over this rival, but that was also off the back of an epic match that Diego Sebastian Schwartzman had won against Dominic Thiem and even then he was able to keep things relatively competitive.
The main reason it is almost impossible to believe an upset will occur outside of an injury is because Rafael Nadal has loved playing return games against Diego Sebastian Schwartzman. The Spaniard has a 10-1 record against Schwartzman and has won 47% of the return points played and broken in 44% of return games played meaning he is pretty much keeping this opponent under pressure every time he steps up to the line to serve.
In their six meetings on clay, those numbers are slightly better in favour of Rafael Nadal and their two meetings at the French Open has resulted wide margin wins for the top player on this surface.
While saying all that, this handicap looks plenty wide and Diego Sebastian Schwartzman can at least make his mark on the match. His service numbers might not suggest so, but Schwartzman has been able to win 40% of points on the Rafael Nadal serve in their two meetings at the French Open and that has led to breaks of serve in 25% of return games.
Rafael Nadal was broken four times in the last Round against Jannik Sinner so there is a potential opening for Diego Sebastian Schwartzman when getting this many games behind him.
The Spaniard has won all five of their Grand Slam meetings, but the widest margin was nine games between the players. That happened once, eight game margins happened twice and Rafael Nadal won the other two by seven and six game margins.
Another 'big' win is likely for Rafael Nadal, but Diego Sebastian Schwartzman is fresh enough to cause enough problems and scrape through enough service games to avoid a real hammering.
Barbora Krejcikova v Cori Gauff: The first of the Women's Quarter Final matches that take place on Day 11 at the French Open features two players who have taken their hot form on the clay courts onto those in Paris this week. Both Cori Gauff and Barbora Krejcikova are going to be experiencing new nerves as they play in a maiden Quarter Final and the layers are more confident in the 17 year old American to defeat Krejcikova.
However, it is not a deep confidence and I think Barbora Krejcikova has every chance of becoming the third player in the Women's draw that wins her Quarter Final as the underdog. She is a much slighter underdog than both Tamara Zidansek and Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova were on Tuesday, while Barbora Krejcikova has played some of her best tennis on the clay courts over the last couple of years as a Singles player.
Cori Gauff matches up pretty well on her numbers in 2021 with her surprising successes on the clay courts despite the American suggesting she is still a work in progress on the surface. That hasn't looked the case in the last three sets played at the French Open as she has comfortably beaten Jennifer Brady and Ons Jabeur, the latter in particular looking in pretty good shape before being outplayed comprehensively.
The serve has been really working well for Gauff which is hugely important to any success she is going to earn at this tournament, while it has enabled her to step back and take some big swings at the return to build the momentum behind her. The younger player has not dropped serve since the Second Round, but Barbora Krejcikova is no slouch when it comes to her own service performance and it has felt slightly more consistent than Gauff's.
I do think both players will have success serving and this match is going to come down to the fine margins, but before the tournament was played Cori Gauff's numbers against top 50 opponents had not been as nearly as impressive as the ones that Barbora Krejcikova has been producing. I believe that could have the latter feeling pretty good about this match up, although Gauff has had an ability to outplay the numbers by really operating at a very high level when the key points come up.
Another point to note is that Barbora Krejcikova has looked the more comfortable on the way to build return points on the clay and the Czech player has been able to create more break points in the tournament. Her Doubles success should mean Krejcikova is also the more confident if this comes down to a game of skulls at the net and I think the slight underdog can reach her maiden Semi Final in what should be a really fun match to watch.
Iga Swiatek - 4.5 games v Maria Sakkari: Both defending Champions from Roland Garros are still involved in the 2021 tournament and I don't think there will be a big rush to oppose either Rafael Nadal or Iga Swiatek from picking up the titles again this weekend.
The numbers produced by Iga Swiatek are very intimidating for opponents who will likely know how well she has been playing on the clay courts for months now. The 20 year old looks like someone who is going to have a lot of success in Paris in the years ahead and even when she has been pushed this week, Iga Swiatek has found the right responses to make relatively serene progress in a draw that has seen the Seeds tumble at an alarming rate.
This is anything but a walkover for Swiatek on Wednesday when she takes on Maria Sakkari who has reached her maiden Quarter Final as a Singles player at Grand Slam level. There was a time when the Greek player was one that I thought was largely overachieving and needed to make improvements if she was going to build up the World Rankings, but Maria Sakkari is up to a career high World Ranking and her numbers have improved to underline the progress being made.
However, Maria Sakkari will know how much she has to step up her level if she is going to beat the defending Champion in her current form. Wins over Elise Mertens and Sofia Kenin are solid ones to give Sakkari some confidence, but she will need to get a few more cheaper points from the serve if she is going to put Iga Swiatek under pressure.
Iga Swiatek was pushed pretty hard by Marta Kostyuk in the Fourth Round, but even then the scoreboard shows a relatively comfortable win for the Pole. It says something about the standard she has been setting on the clay that it was considered a tough win, but Iga Swiatek created the break points and she found a way to win enough of the key points to land a good win.
The clay court performances from the French Open last year through to the Quarter Final from Iga Swiatek have been extremely good and I do think she is going to have too much for the remaining players in the draw. This won't be an easy match for her, but Maria Sakkari has not really found the same kind of consistency and I think the Swiatek return game will eventually take control of this Quarter Final and move clear.
MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 6.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Diego Sebastian Schwartzman + 9.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Barbora Krejcikova @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Iga Swiatek - 4.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
French Open Update: 44-40, - 2.94 Units (168 Units Staked, - 1.75% Yield)
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