There may be four third place finishers making it through to the Last 16 of the Euro 2020 Finals, but it is still surprising to see that twenty-three of the twenty-four teams taking part still having an opportunity to make it through.
Only North Macedonia have officially been eliminated and only the Netherlands have guaranteed themselves as Group Winners.
With that in mind, the final round of Group games should have plenty on the line for all of the teams involved and there should be plenty of twists and turns to come. Things will clear up by Monday evening when three Groups are completed, but teams are still jockeying for position and there are some good looking matches to come.
Sunday 20th June
Italy vs Wales Pick: Two wins from two Group games will have won the section for many teams, but Italy still have a bit of work to do to make sure they leave Rome as Group A Winners.
Avoiding defeat will be good enough to do that and it may be a result that suits both Italy and their opponents Wales who have almost certainly secured 2nd place in the Group.
Roberto Mancini could make some changes to give some of the other squad members an opportunity, but the manager would also like to keep the momentum behind his team and I would not be surprised if the Italians put another win on the board.
Wales have played well in the tournament and the pace on the counter attack will worry an Italian team that can lack some legs at the back. However, Robert Page and his men may feel the best approach is to contain their hosts and avoid a big defeat which should be good enough for 2nd place as long as Switzerland don't batter Turkey in the other game in the Group.
The edge is with Wales though and they have put in a lot of work to secure their place in the Last 16 in all likelihood.
They do pose a threat on the break and the likes of Gareth Bale and Aaron Ramsey are playing well, but I think Italy may just have enough to break them down and secure a narrow win. Another clean sheet would not be a massive surprise and I would not be massively surprised if both teams slow down towards the end of this fixture with Knock Out matches to come later in the week.
Turkey vs Switzerland Pick: After failing to win any of the four Group games these two nations have combined to play for, the situation means both Turkey and Switzerland are in a precarious position in the tournament.
They meet in Baku on Sunday and both teams need to win the game and hope that is good enough to take them through to the next Round.
Turkey are under more pressure having lost both Group games and a win may not be enough considering the awful goal difference- they don't just need to win, but likely need to win big and that means an attacking approach has to be taken to this fixture.
They have created chances, but Turkey have been poor in the final third and they need to show better composure if they are going to have any chance of Qualifying.
Switzerland have things much simpler- if they win they move onto four points and that should be enough to take them through. They were decent against Wales and deserved more than a point, but Switzerland were awful in Rome and the travel back to Baku does not favour them at all.
I do think they will cause Turkey problems considering what we have seen defensively from the Turks, but this could develop into an open game and especially if Turkey score first. Goals have been an issue for both of these teams in this tournament, but this should be a more open encounter and I think at least three goals will be shared out.
Monday 21st June
North Macedonia vs Netherlands Pick: Beating both Ukraine and Austria and scoring five goals has given the Netherlands fans hopes of a very strong Finals to come. They have already won Group C and so should be rewarded with a good looking Last 16 match and the draw could easily open up for the Netherlands with the way the opening fixtures have gone.
Having secured all they have wanted, Frank de Boer could easily make changes to his team, but there is almost a full week before Holland will play again and so he won't want to lose some of the momentum that has been earned.
They could really go into the Last 16 with a heap of momentum as the Netherlands take on eliminated North Macedonia.
The latter have shown they came through the weakest of the Play Off paths into the Euro Finals and they have looked markedly weaker than both Ukraine and Austria and now face the best team in the section. North Macedonia have nothing to lose so they could be dangerous, but defensively they have looked off the pace and teams have created plenty of chances against them.
I do think the Netherlands will be found out later in the tournament, especially as their attack and defence look a little light, but for now they should be comfortable and I think they win this game pretty comfortably.
Momentum can be so important to teams and the Netherlands can go into the Last 16 with three wins behind them. I don't think there will be wholesale changes, although a few of the squad could be given an opportunity, and I think the depth will be enough to see off North Macedonia by a couple of goals on the day.
Ukraine vs Austria Pick: A point would likely be good enough to take both Ukraine and Austria through to the Last 16.
The layers clearly believe the two teams are more than aware of that being the potential outcome of this fixture and the draw is actually trading at odds on.
You can't really argue with the theory and I do think there will be a temptation for both of these teams to not take too many risks.
It is not often you see the draw at the prices they are for this one, but I think it is a risky play. Instead, a small interest on there being 'no goalscorer' might be the best approach as you can see both Ukraine and Austria perhaps easing off if this game is level with half an hour left, but also covers the chance of an own goal breaking the deadlock.
There might not be a lot of reason for either team to commit to attack in this one and both may shake hands on finishing 2nd and 3rd and moving through to a Last 16 tie over the next weekend.
Finland vs Belgium Pick: Only one team has managed to come from behind and win a game at Euro 2020 and Belgium's win over Denmark has taken them through to the Last 16. Avoiding defeat will be enough to take them through as Group Winners, but Roberto Martinez likes his Belgium team to play with attacking intent and even with some changes I do think they will be too good for this opponent.
They should give the likes of Kevin De Bruyne and Eden Hazard more minutes to try and get those key players up to speed before the Knock Out Rounds begin, and Belgium have shown they have some depth when crushing Belarus 8-0 in a World Cup Qualifier in March.
Roberto Martinez is taking his team back to St Petersburg and the travel is an issue, but Belgium have momentum and five goals in two Group games has given them a boost.
They will be facing a Finland team who likely still need a point to take them through to the Last 16.
Finland work hard and will give it a go, but they are not the best defensively and you do have to worry about them if they go chasing this game. That has to be a fear for the Finnish, although a narrow defeat may not prevent them going through to the Last 16 depending what happens in the other game.
Even with that in mind, it will be difficult to contain this Belgium team despite the likelihood of one or two changes to be made to freshen up the starting line up.
A comfortable win for one of the favourites looks the most likely outcome of this final Group game.
Russia vs Denmark Pick: The Christian Eriksen incident has seriously hurt the Denmark chances at this Euro 2020, but there is still an outside chance they can work their way through to the Last 16.
Two defeats have been costly for other teams around the tournament, but Denmark are in a weak section and a win by a couple of goals may see them through as 2nd place as long as Finland are not able to avoid defeat against Belgium.
One of the stronger third place finishes will also be within Denmark's grasp with a big win and they have played well enough to earn more than what they have in this Group so far. This is a team that has been creating chances and they will believe home advantage could be the key in this final Group game against a Russia team that has been a mixed bag.
Despite playing both games at home previously, Russia still need a positive result to earn their place in the next Round and a defeat would likely see them exiting the tournament. That puts some pressure on them and travelling has usually been a weakness for this team.
It could be a fairly open game with both teams chasing the points and I think there will be goals involved.
However, I think Denmark have been very unfortunate in this tournament so far and they may just find one big performance which helps them past this opponent and give them every chance to Qualify for the Last 16. Some eyes and ears will be looking at the game at St Petersburg, but Denmark have to focus on themselves and that means winning this game.
I think they can do that.
Tuesday 22nd June
Croatia vs Scotland Pick: The situation could not be clearer for Croatia and Scotland when they meet in the final Group games on Tuesday evening- both have a single point from the two games played so far and a draw would likely mean both are going to be exiting the Euro 2020 Finals.
A win or bust frame of mind should mean an open fixture develops at some point and the big question for both managers is whether their teams have enough goals to find a victory.
Scotland have yet to score at Euro 2020, but they have created some wonderful chances and poor finishing has really let them down. On another night they would have earned 6 points from their two games played, but Scotland's poor finishing has proved costly and they are under pressure to deliver.
Che Adams is a Premier League player with Southampton, but he has long been someone who has underperformed when it comes to conversion rates and Scotland are going to be under pressure to be much better in the final third. This Croatia team is experienced at the back, but they are an ageing team and Scotland should have enough to create chances against them.
Croatia have also struggled in legitimate away games and that has to be an encouragement for Scotland, although this is a nation that has historically found a way to find a glorious defeat from strong positions.
Teams have created chances against Scotland and I do think Croatia will be able to do that even if they are not as strong as they once were in the forward areas. They have to take risks and that means increasing the intensity of the performance, while an early goal could really open this fixture up completely.
1-1 means nothing to either team and I think that has to mean attacking players will be used and spaces could open up as this fixture hits the 70th minute mark and further along.
It is difficult to back these teams to be clinical in front of goal considering what we have seen from them in this tournament, but both Scotland and Croatia can create chances in front of goal. If a player or two can just show the composure needed, one of the teams may find the three points they need to progress and it could come from a relatively high-scoring fixture to round out what has been a low-scoring Group.
Czech Republic vs England Pick: When you plan out the draw before a tournament ball has been played it can be easy to get carried away by the possibilities and for many winning Group D would be a bad decision as it would mean facing either Germany/France/Portugal in the Second Round.
It is with that in mind that many felt finishing 2nd would be a better long-term plan for a team and I think that is influencing the odds for this fixture.
England can go through as 2nd place in the Group if they don't win this fixture and you can understand why some think playing out a draw would suit both teams. The Czech Republic's aims are to get through to the Knock Out Stage and that would guarantee they do that, while England would likely be pretty happy even if it means leaving Wembley Stadium until the Semi Final.
A weaker path helped England reach the World Cup Semi Final three years ago so this is something that would be in mind. Obviously it won't be mentioned by the management, but I also think Gareth Southgate needs a much better performance from his team than the one produced in the draw with Scotland.
It is hard to know what kind of desire England have- they are a big price if they were definitely going to play for the win, but you do wonder if that is going to be high on the agenda throughout this fixture.
What England have done of late is not give up too many goals and that may be underlined in this fixture. The Czech Republic have not exactly created a lot of chances in their opening two games and I think England can largely contain their threat, although England will have to be much better in the final third to break down a team that has overachieved defensively considering the chances they have allowed.
In usual circumstances England would look a massive price as I have said, but you can't really know for sure what they are thinking and whether playing for 2nd is the best bet for them.
In all likelihood a point suits both teams and I would not be surprised if one of the teams fails to find the net in what could be a potentially another uninspiring fixture in this Group.
Wednesday 23rd June
Slovakia vs Spain Pick: One of the big disappointments at the Euro 2020 Finals so far has to be Spain, although this is a team that has just lacked a clinical touch rather than totally underachieving.
Unfortunately it is a big part of football to find a way to convert chances into goals and Luis Enrique may make more changes in a bid to lift his team. A missed Penalty against Poland means Spain are almost certainly going to need to win this game to have any chance of making it through to the Last 16.
Draws with Sweden and Poland have come about through poor finishing, but Spain do finish up with the weakest team in the section.
Slovakia have three points on the board and another may be good enough to take them through to the Last 16, but they have not really been as strong as they would have liked. A lack of goals was a concern before the Finals began and Slovakia have created very little so far, which should be encouraging for the Spain fans that have been vocal in their disgust with the results so far.
Defensively Spain have not been at their best and I do think that will encourage their visitors, but I do think Spain will have the edge in the match. A narrow defeat for Slovakia may not be the worst result when the entire Group Stage shakes out, but that may be the best they can hope for against a Spain team that are surely going to punish someone soon.
Sweden vs Poland Pick: The layers have placed Poland as the favourites for this final Group game because they 'need' to win, but I think that offers up an opportunity to oppose them here.
The draw with Spain was a positive result, but Slovakia's win over Poland has put them in a difficult spot and a draw is likely going to mean elimination. They will have to take risks and Poland have a player in Robert Lewandowski that has proven himself a lethal finisher in the top European Leagues, but you can't discount the motivation that Sweden may have.
A defeat coupled with a Spain win would mean Sweden are going to be hoping to be one of the best third place finishers and that would also mean a very difficult Last 16 tie. However, a win and they can top the Group which means facing a third place team in the next Round and that would present Sweden a real chance to reach the Quarter Final of back to back major international tournaments.
The Swedes defend well enough to frustrate Poland and I do think they have some pace and quality in the final third which could see them find a way to secure a positive result. If Poland begin to chase, who would discount a Swedish counter attack to win the Group and I certainly think they are being disrespected as the slight underdog in this match.
Sweden have arguably looked better than Poland in the tournament with a solid base from which they can build. That is superior to Poland who do give up chances and have conceded three goals in two Group games and I think Sweden may be the surprising Group E Winners.
A draw would likely mean things coming down to goal difference assuming Spain finally get things right, but Sweden should be motivated to try and win this game and the Group. With an opponent that may have to take risks in front of them, much could come down to how effective Sweden are on the counter attack late in the game and I think they will find a way to the victory when all is said and done.
Germany vs Hungary Pick: The situation will be very clear to all of the teams in Group F by the time they kick off the final Group fixtures at Euro 2020 on Wednesday evening, but you do have to feel the permutations are more likely to affect the other fixture in the Group.
Both Germany and Hungary are much clearer in their ambitions and that is namely a win should be good enough to take them through to the Last 16.
The media may have been sharpening their knives in Germany on Saturday as the national team fell 0-1 behind against Portugal and the fear of a repeat of the World Cup 2018 failure certainly came to the fore. However, Joachim Low's team feel they are being underestimated and turned on the style in thumping the European Champions 4-2 and earn some vital momentum to take towards the Group Stage.
With France failing to win in Budapest, Germany have every chance of topping this section and they will be targeting one more win in Munich.
Germany have been a hard team to get a read on since the World Cup with inconsistent results and poor defensive performances holding them back. However, some of the younger players have provided an attacking spark and Germany have been scoring goals for fun and especially in home games which makes them very dangerous.
They created a lot of chances against Portugal and were in some promising positions against France which bodes well now they take on the weakest team in the Group.
Hungary showed resiliency in their 1-1 draw with France, but they have given up huge chances in both games played in the Group and those came in Budapest. Now they have to travel to Munich and I do think Hungary will struggle to contain their hosts and eventually will have to take risks to try and earn the positive result they need to have an opportunity to play in the Knock Out Rounds.
That could leave them exposed to a Germany team that does like to get forward and score goals and I think they can sign off at Munich with a big Group Stage win.
It wouldn't be that surprising if Hungary can cause problems of their own against a vulnerable German defence, but I don't think they will be able to contain their hosts. An early goal could really set Germany on their way in this one and I think they can cover what is perhaps the biggest Asian Handicap of the tournament so far.
Portugal vs France Pick: I am writing this out on Monday but the situation for both Portugal and France will be much clearer by the time this match kicks off on Wednesday evening.
While Portugal are not going to have a guaranteed place in the Last 16 of the Euro 2020 Tournament by then, they will know how many more points they need.
Assuming Hungary will not win in Munich, 3 points could be enough for Portugal if two of the following situations comes true: Finland lose to Belgium, Croatia and Scotland draw or Poland fail to beat Sweden.
Even then it would come down to goal difference if Portugal were to lose to France on Wednesday, but they have a positive one now and a narrow defeat may not prevent passage through to the Last 16.
It clouds the approach Portugal may take, although they will finish in the top two of the Group if they can win this game. The World Champions also have plenty of motivation knowing a win will top the section, and with the knowledge that a defeat may force France to need one of the best third place finisher spots and a potentially very difficult Last 16 tie.
The permutations can drive you mad at times, but the feeling is that both of these teams will not want to give too much away. Those permutations will be very clear by kick off, but the two Nations League meetings suggest this will be another tight fixture and I do think goals will be tough to find.
Portugal have looked good going forward, but the 4-2 loss to Germany may have spooked a manager who is more cautious than cavalier, while France have struggled to put a finishing touch to some of their football. Defensively the World Champions have looked pretty solid, and I do think you have to factor in that there have been two goals scored in the last 4 between these nations in normal time.
Backing one of the teams to fail to score is my suggestion, but I do think you should keep a real eye on how the other results are going. It could mean this fixture could potentially open up if news filters through that a team needs to chase a result, but it feels the pressure is all on the Portuguese before kick off regardless.
They showed how vulnerable they can be to the counter attack against Germany and this France team is more than capable of blowing past opponents. However, I think this is a fixture in which the two managers will be looking to set up to prevent the other team from picking up some steam and so it may be one where there is very little between them.
MY PICKS: Italy Win to Nil @ 2.20 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Turkey-Switzerland Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.80 William Hill (2 Units)
Netherlands - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.96 Bet365 (2 Units)
Ukraine-Austria No Goalscorer @ 5.50 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Belgium - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.05 Bet365 (2 Units)
Denmark to Win & Over 1 Total Goals @ 2.15 Bet365 (2 Units)
Croatia-Scotland Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Czech Republic-England Both Teams to Score- NO @ 1.72 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Spain Win to Nil @ 1.77 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Sweden 0 Asian Handicap @ 2.05 Bet365 (2 Units)
Germany - 2 Asian Handicap @ 1.89 Bet365 (2 Units)
Portugal-France Both Teams to Score- NO @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Match Day 2: 5-7, - 3.54 Units (24 Units Staked, - 14.75% Yield)
Match Day 1: 7-5, + 3.10 Units (24 Units Staked, + 12.92% Yield)
No comments:
Post a Comment