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Friday 4 May 2018

Weekend Football Picks 2018 (May 4-6)

The penultimate weekend of the Premier League is played across the next three days, although there is an almost full midweek slate of games for those teams who have to complete their games in hand.

While the Premier League title race is run and the top four looks to be almost set for those sides currently occupying those places, the bottom three places are still undecided.

West Brom have produced some strong form, but it looks a case of too little, too late for them, but picking the other two teams to be relegated looks much more difficult. It could clear up this weekend with Stoke City in an almost 'must win' situation knowing a loss would likely mean they are gone, while Swansea City and Southampton have to focus on other matters before facing one another next Tuesday in what could be a relegation decider.

We are in for another important weekend as teams close out their schedules for the 2017/18 season.


Brighton v Manchester United Pick: The Premier League has a rare Friday night treat for the fans watching on television this weekend, although it isn't as much fun for those who have to make the long journey from Manchester down to Brighton on a working day.

The players just have to get on with their jobs and Manchester United have to be focused even though there aren't a lot of ambitions to fulfil at the end of this Premier League campaign. Finishing 2nd is still important to Jose Mourinho though and Manchester United need 4 more points to do that while also keeping some momentum going heading into the FA Cup Final which is played in two weeks time.

They have won their last 3 away games in the Premier League and that is going to be a problem for Brighton who may feel they still need some points to ensure survival in the Premier League for another season.

Brighton are also playing their final home game of the season which is going to add to the motivation for the players to try and finish on a high. However playing the very best teams in the Premier League has been very difficult for Brighton for much of the season and 3 of their 4 home League losses have come against teams from the top five of the Premier League table.

Recently they did come back from 0-1 down to earn a 1-1 home draw with Tottenham Hotspur, but that has been a rare positive result for Brighton against the top clubs. Their creativity has been a little stunted by the top teams and Manchester United have been pretty resolute at the back for much of the season which only makes it more difficult for Brighton to earn a positive result from this fixture.

Manchester United have generally been good enough to deal with difficult trips to those teams in the bottom half of the table and they should be able to do that here. The absence of Romelu Lukaku would be a blow, but Marcus Rashford is capable of leading the line for Manchester United with the supporting cast of Alexis Sanchez and Paul Pogba in decent form of late.

It won't be an easy fixture for Manchester United, but I think they can win here and most likely that will come by a couple of goals. Generally Brighton home games against the top teams have resulted in a few goals with at least two shared out in games against Manchester City, Liverpool, Tottenham Hotspur, Chelsea and Arsenal. 3 of those have ended in losses and I will back Manchester United to win a fixture featuring at least two goals at odds against.


Stoke City v Crystal Palace Pick: There is still a small hope for Stoke City fans that their team can get themselves out of a terrible predicament and work their way out of the bottom three. Only two Premier League games remain though and Stoke City have to win both to have a real chance beginning with this last home game of the season against Crystal Palace.

It is potentially a good time to face Crystal Palace who had a big win last weekend which has almost secured their place in the Premier League for another season.

However Stoke City have to recognise that Crystal Palace have been in strong form over the last six weeks and can play with a freedom that comes with securing safety for another season. The Eagles have a very good set of creative players who can punish teams like Stoke City who are perhaps not as secure defensively as they would like.

On the other hand, Stoke City will feel they can create opportunities against a Crystal Palace defence which has looked far from watertight in recent weeks. The raw numbers do show 2 clean sheets from 3 away games, but recently Crystal Palace have conceded twice to Bournemouth and Brighton.

Stoke City haven't looked like they could take full advantage with a lack of goals a real problem for the side. They have lost leads against West Ham United and Burnley having not created enough for second goals in those games and I think picking a winner is difficult considering the situation.

What looks most likely is that both teams will have chances to score in this one and I am going to back both teams finding the net. Stoke City have scored in 4 of their last 5 at home, while Crystal Palace had scored in 10 consecutive away games in all competitions before the goalless draw at Watford where they could have potentially been awarded a penalty.

Stoke City will have to take chances at some point you would think which could leave things open for the likes of Wilfried Zaha and Ruben Loftus-Cheek to exploit, and I will look for both teams to score at least once.


Bournemouth v Swansea City Pick: This is a huge week coming up for Swansea City as they cling onto their Premier League status, but Carlos Carvalhal continues to be very confident in their ability to avoid relegation. Destiny is in Swansea City's hands as they host the two clubs immediately below them in the Premier League table over the next eight days, but first they must concentrate on this trip to Bournemouth.

Neither Bournemouth or Swansea City have been in great recent form, but the latter have a lot of motivation as they try and avoid the drop and will feel they are visiting at the right time.

However Swansea City have not been good enough away from home this season and it may be the two remaining home games against Southampton and Stoke City which are key for them. A lack of goals away from home has posed a big problem for Swansea City although they will have chances against this Bournemouth team who have conceded goals for fun.

The problem for Swansea City is that Bournemouth tend to score plenty of goals at the Vitality Stadium too and I think both teams will have their chances on Saturday.

Before the 0-2 defeat to Manchester United, Bournemouth's last 10 home games had produced at least three goals and I think they are a team who will create chances but also defend erratically enough for teams to feel they have an opportunity here.

Swansea City may feel they have to take more risks if Stoke City have won earlier in the day and with Southampton yet to play, and that could lead to an entertaining fixture. Backing at least three goals to be shared out looks to be the play.


West Brom v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: There have to be some questions amongst the West Brom squad that they were not able to find their form earlier than they have with relegation almost certainly in their future.

That could be confirmed by the end of Saturday's fixture against Tottenham Hotspur but West Brom will likely continue to show the fight that has been a feature of their performances under Darren Moore. Wins over Manchester United and Newcastle United have to be respected, while West Brom showed what they are capable of by coming from 0-2 down to earn a home draw with Liverpool.

They will likely need that fight again when they host a Tottenham Hotspur team who are trying to maintain their spot in the top four.

Tottenham Hotspur won an important game against Watford on Monday night and can almost cement their top four spot by winning on Saturday. They have performed well away from home in recent weeks and had won 5 in a row on their travels before the 1-1 draw with Brighton a couple of weeks ago.

Scoring goals has not been a big problem for Tottenham Hotspur, but West Brom will feel they can have some success when they get forward. Scoring goals at The Hawthorns has not been an issue for West Brom, but they also concede plenty and I think Tottenham Hotspur are likely to win a high-scoring fixture.

3 of the last 4 between these clubs in this Stadium have ended in draws, but I think Tottenham Hotspur have the attacking quality to win this time around. Backing them to win a fixture which features three or more goals at odds against can't be ignored and I like Tottenham Hotspur to do that.


Everton v Southampton Pick: This is the time of the season when those teams in 'must win' situations are being priced very short with their motivations clear compared to others who may not look like they have a lot to gain on the face of things.

One of those this weekend in the Premier League comes from Goodison Park where Everton host Southampton and I can't understand in any way, shape or form how the away team can be favoured to win.

Everton are one of just seven teams in the Premier League who have won at least 10 home games and they are hosting a Southampton team who have won just 2 away games all season. If the latter weren't fighting for their lives at the bottom of the Premier League I would imagine Everton would be a strong favourite to win yet here we are seeing them as the home underdog.

The Saints have won 1 of their last 15 away Premier League games and they have not managed to win any of their last 5. There have been some positive signs with the attacking football Mark Hughes has been able to implement, but Southampton also continue to look vulnerable at the back and Everton can take advantage of that.

Everton have a very strong home record against Southampton in recent years too and I just can't understand why they are the underdog. You can back Everton on the Asian Handicap which will actually return a profit if this one ends in a draw, which is the least I would expect, and I think this is an option that looks too good to ignore.

Of course Southampton 'need' the points more than Everton, but the fact they are struggling at the wrong end of the Premier League table makes them a hard away favourite to back.

The focus could quickly shift to the fixture at Swansea City on Tuesday if Everton do take the lead here and I will be behind the home team on the handicap.


Manchester City v Huddersfield Town Pick: Pep Guardiola has been keen to stress that he doesn't want his players coasting towards the end of the season and the performances since being confirmed as Premier League Champions have been on a very high level.

That does not mean good news for Huddersfield Town who are still searching for the points that will keep them in the Premier League.

It is hard to see where Huddersfield Town are going to find the points with a couple of away games at the Etihad Stadium and Stamford Bridge to come before hosting Arsenal in Arsene Wenger's final game as manager of The Gunners. That means they are perhaps hoping the teams below them can't find the points they need to overtake Huddersfield Town rather than getting those points themselves.

You have to say that is a difficult position for players to be in, and Huddersfield Town have struggled to compete with the top clubs in the Premier League. They have been beaten relatively comfortably at Liverpool, Arsenal, Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur already this season and Manchester City are arguably the most difficult of tests for the away side.

Defensively Huddersfield Town have been tough to break down, but this Manchester City team won't worry about taking their time and wearing down their opponents. Goals have been flowing for Manchester City in recent games and I think they are going to be far too good for Huddersfield Town in what could be a party atmosphere at the Etihad Stadium on Sunday.

Manchester City have won 9 of their 17 home League games by three or more goals and I think they can add Huddersfield Town to that list with a comfortable win on Sunday. Backing them on the Asian Handicap to secure a big win looks to be the way to approach this fixture.


Arsenal v Burnley Pick: This is a big game only because it is a chance for the Arsenal fans to give Arsene Wenger the kind of send off he deserves.

A hard 1-0 defeat to Atletico Madrid on Thursday ended any lingering hopes of making it through to the Champions League next season and most fans will feel the time for a change is long overdue. Even then, they should offer Wenger plenty of respect now he is completing his time with Arsenal and the final game at the Emirates Stadium should be an emotional one.

Burnley will look to take advantage and they have some very big wins this season which has helped them virtually secure European Football for Turf Moor next season. A win at Chelsea and draws at Manchester United, Tottenham Hotspur and Liverpool show how tough Burnley can be.

Sean Dyche will likely stick with his two up front formation which has troubled teams who are not used to dealing with an 'old school' system, but I expect the atmosphere at the Emirates Stadium to motivate the home players for a big performance.

Of course picking yourself up from the disappointment of a Semi Final loss is always difficult, but Arsenal will want to send off their long-term manager with another win in this Stadium and I think they can do that.

Recent form at the Emirates Stadium has been very positive from Arsenal and I think they can continue that against Burnley. The attacking options make Arsenal very dangerous when they are on their game and I think they will have too much for Burnley with the goals being scored at home in recent weeks.

I think Arsenal will win and backing them to do so in a game which features at least two goals is a decent looking price. Arsene Wenger can enjoy one more moment in this Stadium and Arsenal fans can then look forward to the future and whatever it may bring for them.


Chelsea v Liverpool Pick: With a Champions League Final to look forward to, Liverpool are looking to secure their place in the competition for next season which could free up the players to perform at their best in the Final later this month.

They can earn a top four spot this weekend as long as Liverpool are not beaten by Chelsea at Stamford Bridge and this has been a ground on which Liverpool have won back to back Premier League games.

Chelsea have been in better form of late with 4 straight wins in all competitions and they have also had a week to prepare for this fixture which may give them an opportunity. They will certainly believe they can punish a Liverpool defence which has looked a little suspect in recent games and that was highlighted in their 4-2 loss at Roma during the week.

The players won't have had a lot of time to recover from their exploits on Wednesday to this fixture on Sunday and you can understand the layers are making Chelsea favourites. However I do wonder if Chelsea have really turned a corner and their record against the best teams in the Premier League have not been that impressive this season.

They should be able to create some chances against Liverpool, but the Chelsea vaunted defence of last season has been missing for much of this campaign. With Liverpool's attacking talent they will feel they can create chances of their own and I can see another game featuring three or more goals between these clubs.

The last couple of Chelsea versus Liverpool games at Stamford Bridge have hit that number and I think both teams will likely score in this one. Chelsea have to push for a win to try and close in on the top four places going into the final weekend of the season, and that should mean there are more spaces in this fixture than you may expect when two of the top clubs meet.

The attackers on the pitch should be able to have their moments and I will back three more goals to be the outcome of this one.

MY PICKS: Manchester United Win & Over 1.5 Goals @ 2.25 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Stoke City-Crystal Palace Both Teams to Score @ 1.70 William Hill (2 Units)
Bournemouth-Swansea City Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.95 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur Win & Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.15 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Everton + 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester City - 2.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Arsenal Win & Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Chelsea-Liverpool Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)

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