Midweek Football Picks 2018 (May 1-3)

The Champions League and Europa League Finals will be set by the end of this week as we enter the final month of the 2017/18 season in the big European Leagues.

Most of the ties look to be balanced going into the Second Legs to be played this week, but I think the teams in the better positions are all eventually going to find their way through to the Final. I do think there may be a couple of twists and turns first though.

On Friday we will move onto another weekend in the Premier League so there will be a thread for those Weekend Picks by Friday afternoon, but the games are running down now.


Real Madrid v Bayern Munich Pick: After losing 1-2 in the Quarter Final in the home Leg thirteen months ago, I didn't hold out a lot of hope for Bayern Munich to turn things around against Real Madrid. They actually managed to force extra time in that tie before being undone thanks to a late Arturo Vidal sending off and the players have to head to the Spanish capital with some belief they can turn this one around.

Injuries are really affecting the Bayern Munich squad which is a major concern for them, but there is still plenty of quality in the starting line up and I can't imagine they finish with as little composure as they did last week in Munich.

I also can't put my finger on this Real Madrid team despite winning the last two Champions League titles. On some days they have looked very good, but on others they have flattered to deceive although the bottom line is they continue to do just enough to make it through the Rounds.

The lead from the First Leg does make Real Madrid strong favourites to make it through to the Final, but I do think Bayern Munich are going to play a big part here and certainly won't roll over for the home team.

Picking a winner isn't straight forward simply because I do think Bayern Munich can replicate the performance from last season when they won 1-2 here in the Second Leg of their Quarter Final despite losing 1-2 at home in the First Leg.

The layers are anticipating goals with the over 2.5 goals option very short and that is no surprise when you think the last 3 and 8 of the last 9 have seen three or more goals shared out by these teams.

I do think we can get one more goal if the Real Madrid and Bayern Munich strikers are showing composure in front of goal that they do usually produce. It is a big Semi Final though which adds to the pressure when the chances come up, while the teams may not take too many chances if we get to 1-2 for the fourth consecutive time these teams have played.

In most other situations you have to think one of the teams are taking chances which could leave spaces ready to be exploited. I'd be surprised if we didn't see at least three goals on Tuesday, but it may be worth the play to look for one more at odds against.


Roma v Liverpool Pick: There were some unsavoury scenes ahead of the Liverpool-Roma Semi Final First Leg which has taken away some of the satisfaction Liverpool would have had from their performance on the field.

A dominant 5-2 win in the Champions League Semi Final First Leg should be good enough for Liverpool to make it through to their first Final in the competition since 2007.

Some doubt will have been raised by the two late goals conceded by the English side, while the news that Zeljko Buvac has left the club for a short period is another blow to Liverpool. I don't anticipate it being a big enough issue for Liverpool to find themselves in the same predicament as Barcelona did in the Champions League Quarter Final because the situation feels much more comfortable for Liverpool.

Roma played really well in Barcelona despite the 4-1 loss and that gave them a confidence to take into their Second Leg, but this time they are perhaps feeling fortunate to have any chance in this Semi Final Second Leg. The defending was frankly awful at Anfield and a team chasing goals are likely to leave some spaces for the speedy Liverpool attack to exploit.

I simply can't see Liverpool failing to score in Rome and I think that would be a huge body blow for Roma to try and recover from. As well as they have played at home in the Champions League throughout this season, keeping Liverpool from scoring here is arguably the biggest challenge the home team would have faced.

It would be a surprise if Roma don't at least take more care defensively in this one, but at some point there will be spaces for Liverpool to exploit and that makes this a difficult game to read.

Riding out the early storm is going to be key for Liverpool but even if they do fall behind in the opening ten minutes they showed at Manchester City in the Quarter Final that they will get their opportunities anyway. Roma showed enough going forward to think they will create chances too, but barring a complete turnaround in their defensive schemes I don't see the clean sheet which has been key to their run to the Semi Final.

After seven goals were shared out at Anfield, there could be a few more scored on Wednesday and I will back four or more to be the final tally.


Atletico Madrid v Arsenal Pick: The late Antoine Griezmann goal in the Emirates Stadium has put Atletico Madrid in pole position to make it through to the Europa League Semi Final.

Arsenal will be kicking themselves for not taking advantage of their visitors being reduced to ten men for 80 plus minutes of the First Leg and now they have to find a way to breach this Atletico Madrid at least once to give themselves a chance of moving through to the Final.

That is a big challenge against a team who have kept 11 clean sheets in a row in all competitions and I imagine Diego Simeone will be making sure Atletico Madrid are hard to beat in this one. Having the prospect of being able to go through with a goalless draw means Atletico Madrid are unlikely to take too many risks in this one and instead focus on making sure they don't allow Arsenal a way back into the tie.

The Gunners haven't found scoring goals a big problem, but rarely would have come up against a unit as well organised as Atletico Madrid. And I am not sure Arsene Wenger will be too disappointed if his side are still goalless with 20 minutes left of this tie with a single goal being enough to really turn the tie in Arsenal's favour.

I can imagine a tight Second Leg developing with Atletico Madrid making sure they don't leave too many gaps behind them. They are the more likely winners with Arsenal likely to make a mistake at the back which has been a feature of their season, but backing one of these teams, at least, to fail to score looks an intriguing price.

Atletico Madrid's home record is very impressive in terms of clean sheets and I don't think they will take too many risks to allow Arsenal to erase the away goal Atletico picked up in North London last week.

Chelsea did score twice here in the Champions League Group Stage, but the previous 3 English visitors had not scored against Atletico Madrid. This Arsenal team doesn't look as strong as previous English teams to play in this part of Madrid and I will look for Atletico Madrid to produce a tight Second Leg which sees goals at a premium.


Salzburg v Marseille Pick: Most fans will consider the winner of this Europa League Semi Final to be considerable underdogs in the Final regardless of whether they face Atletico Madrid or Arsenal.

Neither Marseille or Salzburg will be a part of that majority though and it is the French side who have the advantage thanks to a 2-0 win at home last week.

However it has to be said that Marseille have not been as strong when you take them away from their home Stadium and the lack of strong results on their travels in the Europa League is a slight concern. Salzburg have shown they can score goals and win games at home and they overturned a 4-2 deficit to Lazio in the Quarter Final by beating them 4-1 at home and that after going 0-1 down in the Second Leg.

Salzburg showed in Marseille that they have some quality football up to the final third, but they were perhaps not creating as many chances as they would have liked. Even then they had opportunities to score a priceless away goal and so they will feel they can put Marseille under some pressure in the Second Leg.

The overall away form of Marseille has perhaps not been the best, but they seem to have rounded into some form of late and will believe they can play a part here. They should find spaces on the counter attack much like Lazio did before Salzburg overwhelmed them and the Second Leg could be an entertaining game of football.

Both teams should have their moments, but picking a winner isn't easy with the situation meaning Salzburg could potentially blow a winning position if they are chasing the fixture. Instead I will look for the two teams to combine for one goal more than last week when the chances did come for both Marseille and Salzburg.

It could also be a game in which Salzburg come close to turning the tie around completely, but I will look for three or more goals to be shared out.

MY PICKS: Real Madrid-Bayern Munich Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Roma-Liverpool Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Atletico Madrid-Arsenal Both Teams NOT To Score @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Salzburg-Marseille Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)