French Open Tennis Day 1 Picks 2018 (May 27th)

The French Open, the second Grand Slam of the season, gets underway on Sunday with a number of First Round matches scheduled.

This is the only Slam on the Tennis calendar which begins on a Sunday and that means the First Round is spread over three days rather than the traditional Monday/Tuesday you will see at the other Grand Slams.

I've put together an outright preview of the French Open with my outright picks which can be read here.

The Day 1 Picks follow.


Nicolas Jarry - 1.5 sets v Jared Donaldson: It has been a breakthrough season for Nicolas Jarry on the main Tour and his best results have unsurprisingly come on the clay courts. That is part of the reason he is favoured to beat Jared Donaldson in the First Round on Sunday and I do think Jarry will get the better of his American opponent who has struggled on this surface all season.

It won't be straight forward for Jarry because of the lack of real experience at this kind of level, but a lot of factors have pointed him out as the right player to back here.

While Jarry has had some strong runs in clay court events in South America and Europe in 2018, his opponent Donaldson's most memorable moment may have been the argument he got into with an umpire over a mark on the surface. That's not a particularly good thing for Donaldson who has struggled in a lot of aspects of his game on the clay.

Life will be that much tougher for Donaldson playing against an opponent who has carried his tremendous serving numbers onto the main Tour events in 2018. The serve is key for Jarry because it gives him some freedom to attack on the return of serve although Jarry will know he has to be better at creating break point opportunities and subsequently taking those.

Donaldson's struggles on the serve may help and I think Jarry is going to come through this in three or four sets with his own ability to hold serve in cleaner fashion the key to the outcome. It should be a big hitting match between these two and the break point chances may not come that often, but Jarry has looked the more comfortable on the clay and can use that to a strong First Round win.


Lucas Pouille - 5.5 games v Daniil Medvedev: There isn't as much hope around a home winner at the French Open as there has been in recent times in Paris, but Lucas Pouille could be the most likely to at least offer a French presence in the men's draw into the second week.

It may be something of a surprise to read that when you consider how rough this clay court season has been for Pouille, but I really do think he has been unfortunate at times. Pouille has played some very good tennis, but his consistency has not been at the level he would like and the Frenchman has also been a little unfortunate in close matches.

This First Round match should be a good one for Pouille against the talented Russian Daniil Medvedev who has had a really tough time on the clay over the last couple of years. There have been moments it looks like Medvedev has gotten to grips with the surface, but he has fallen away in matches when things have begun to go wrong for him and Pouille is capable of pulling away if Medvedev loses belief.

Neither player returns as well as they would hope on the clay which should mean this is a serve dominated match, but that is where Pouille has an edge. He wins around 75% of his service games over the last four years on the clay, but compared to Medvedev those numbers are very strong.

In 2017 Medvedev held around 60% and he has only improved that to 66% in 2018, and that only underlines the problems he has on the return of serve which could show up in this match.

Pouille is not easy to trust with the big number, but I can see him covering even if he drops a set because of some of the collapses Medvedev has had on the surface.


Federico Delbonis - 1.5 sets v Thomaz Bellucci: Any time a player comes through three Qualifying Rounds to enter the main draw of a Grand Slam there has to be some respect for them. Thomaz Bellucci has done that in Paris this week and he is facing an opponent he is very familiar with and certainly will feel he can win this type of match.

The Brazilian has really fallen down the World Rankings as loss of form coupled with injury has affected his ability to win the number of matches he needed to stay in the top 100. At one point Bellucci would have been considered a really tough opponent on the clay, and he has beaten Novak Djokovic on the surface during the Serb's run to the top of the men's game, but these days he spends his time on the Challenger circuit.

Putting some wins together at that level will at least have given Bellucci some confidence to take into this First Round match against Federico Delbonis.

Delbonis is also very comfortable on the clay courts and he has been producing some solid tennis in the build up to the French Open as he made his own return from injury.

The two players have some very similar numbers on the clay in 2018, but you have to factor in Delbonis has been playing at a higher level than Bellucci. The latter's numbers take a significant impact when he has played against top 100 Ranked players and that is what Bellucci will be facing on Sunday and I think Delbonis is going to get the better of him.

It may need four sets to separate them, but I think Delbonis able to win this in three or four sets and I will back him to cover the set handicap.


David Goffin - 6.5 games v Robin Haase: One of the more steady players on the clay courts in recent seasons is David Goffin and it is no surprise that one of his two career Slam Quarter Finals has come at Roland Garros. That run came in 2016 and Goffin will be hoping that his play can help produce another chance at the business end of a Grand Slam.

Being steady means Goffin can wear down some of the lesser lights on the Tour, but he has yet to really make the leap to beat the better players on the clay courts. In the First Round the Belgian faces a dangerous Robin Haase whose best results have been on this surface and who crushed Goffin in Gstaad last season.

They have since met at the Madrid Masters which ended in a very easy win for Goffin and I think that is the more likely outcome of this match.

As dangerous as Haase can be on the clay when he is serving at his best, it has to be noted that he is winning under 60% of points behind serve in 2018. Against someone who can be as effective returning the ball as Goffin that is not going to be good enough and proved to be Haase's downfall when these players met at the Madrid Masters.

Goffin's serve has been stronger than Haase's so far in 2018 and the Dutchman's limited return is unlikely to be good enough for him in this First Round match.

It could be a dangerous match for Goffin, but I think his style will help him work through to a comfortable win and a cover of a very big number.


Anett Kontaveit - 5.5 games v Madison Brengle: One of the potential dark horses in the women's French Open draw is Anett Kontaveit who has some strong numbers on the clay courts which highlight the danger she could pose in the draw.

Twelve months ago not many would have picked Jelena Ostapenko as a potential winner in Paris which shows it can be done, although Kontaveit has to find a little more consistency if she really wants to win seven matches in a row over the next two weeks. Two runs to the Semi Finals in a couple of big tournaments will give Kontaveit some belief though and I like her to get the better of Madison Brengle in the First Round.

There isn't a lot to like about the Brengle game, but she puts in plenty of hard work on and off the court and the American will be hoping to extract errors from the Kontaveit game with her ability to play very strong defensive tennis. Forcing her opponent to hit one more ball has been the way Brengle has looked to work her way to winning positions in points, but she will need Kontaveit off her game.

Her return game has been a very strong part of her performances on the clay courts in 2018 and Brengle will look to get enough Kontaveit serves back in play. However it is going to be tough to get into a strong position in rallies if Kontaveit can get enough first serves in play which is a shot on which she can lay the foundation for success.

The return game is strong enough to get the better of Brengle who has really had a tough time serving on the clay courts and I think it is Kontaveit who is going to find her way to the win. The First Round match looks like one in which Kontaveit will be able to pull away with at least one set where she produces a couple of breaks of serve more than Brengle and that should be good enough to cover this number.


Elina Svitolina - 6.5 games v Alja Tomljanovic: One of the leading contenders to win the French Open in the women's draw is Elina Svitolina and she gets her title bid underway on Sunday in the First Round. It may have been easier for Svitolina, but she has to be confident she can see off Alja Tomljanovic.

There are no doubting some of the strong numbers Svitolina has produced on the clay courts over the last few seasons and retaining the title in Rome will give her a huge boost of confidence to take into the second Major of the season.

We have previously seen Svitolina come up short in the highly pressurised situation of playing deep into the second week of a Grand Slam, but the Ukrainian is still young and will believe there is room to improvement.

The serve in general has improved and Svitolina continues to put up solid returning numbers which makes her a threat to Tomljanovic despite a couple of very strong tournaments on the clay in 2018. The Australian has reached the Final in Marrakech and also the Third Round in Rome, but this is a step up and Tomljanovic has not played well when facing the top players on the clay.

It is clear the numbers take a serious decline when Tomljanovic faces top 50 Ranked players on the clay where her serve becomes a real vulnerability and it has been that much more pressurised on the return of serve. While I think Tomljanovic can get into some of the Svitolina service games, I think she will be put under constant pressure on her own serve and even this big number of games can be covered by the higher Ranked player.

Tomljanovic has taken some heavy losses to Daria Kasatkina, Donna Vekic and Elise Mertens on the clay courts in 2018 and I think Svitolina wins with a statement result that has her competitors sit up and take notice.


Johanna Konta - 4.5 games v Yulia Putintseva: Johanna Konta has really struggled to find her form on the clay courts, but confidence is not in short supply as she told a national media outlet that she is a danger at the French Open to win it all. That looks a long shot, but she can beat Yulia Putintseva in the First Round and I think Konta will be able to do that despite a poor history here.

Konta may only be 3-3 on the clay courts this season, but the numbers in general have been decent enough and certainly good enough to win this kind of match.

The serve remains a huge weapon for Konta and she has been returning well enough which have aided her confidence even if she is just 3-3 on the clay this season.

You have to give Putintseva some respect too having had some decent performance on the clay courts in 2018 despite a poor 2017. There has been some joy from the first serve which is going to be a key to the outcome of this match as Putintseva can stun Konta if she is working well behind the first serve.

However that is asking for a lot from the smaller player who doesn't generate the same type of power from the serve as her opponent. Putintseva can improve her game when she is facing the best players on the Tour, but Konta should have the edge behind the serve and she is returning well enough to cause problems for her opponent.

Consistency has been a problem at times for Putintseva, but I still think she will have her moments in this one. However I do think Konta will prevail and win a rare match at the French Open while covering this number.

MY PICKS: Nicolas Jarry - 1.5 Sets @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Lucas Pouille - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Federico Delbonis - 1.5 Sets @ 2.25 Paddy Power (2 Units)
David Goffin - 6.5 Games @ 1.83 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Anett Kontaveit - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Elina Svitolina - 6.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Johanna Konta - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Sporting Bet (2 Units)