The next couple of weeks are huge on the Tennis Tour with a chance for the top players to lay down a marker for the French Open which begins in under three weeks time.
With back to back big Masters events we do get to see some huge matches throughout the week and this one has been no different. The schedule of matches for Tuesday look very attractive too although finding the right Tennis Picks is not always easy.
After a mixed start to the week on Monday, I am hoping for a bit more positivity on Tuesday to start putting some solid numbers on the board.
Kristyna Pliskova - 3.5 games v Sara Sorribes Tormo: Picking one of the Pliskova sisters to win on the clay courts hasn't been an easy decision in recent years, but both Karolina and Kristyna have shown improvement over the last twelve months.
This has the feel of a winnable match for Kristyna Pliskova despite going up against Sara Sorribes Tormo from Spain who is clearly going to be comfortable on the clay courts.
However Sorribes Tormo has not really been able to have the impact on the main Tour she would have liked and her results on the clay courts at this level have underlined that point. While the Spaniard is a solid returner and gets plenty from that side of her game, her serve is vulnerable and the second serve is a shot that Pliskova should get some significant joy from attacking.
The Pliskova serve is a big weapon for both sisters and Kristyna can get on a roll behind this shot, although it will be challenged on the slower surfaces by someone like Sorribes Tormo. However you would think the conditions in Madrid would favour Pliskova's aggressive style of play and I think that makes a difference when these two players meet in the Second Round.
Playing a surface specialist can be a challenge, but Pliskova has the confidence of coming through the Qualifiers here. She can ride that to a successful path through to the Third Round and I will back Pliskova to be a little too strong for Sorribes Tormo in this one.
Stefanos Tsitsipas - 4.5 games v Evgeny Donskoy: One of the players who could have a really big impact at the upcoming French Open as part of the 'NextGen' ATP players is Stefanos Tsitsipas who has some strong numbers on the clay courts in 2018.
He has always been comfortable on the surface, but Tsitsipas still had to show he would be able to take that onto the next level and there is no doubting how well he has played on the clay over the last month.
Playing a Qualifier can be difficult because they have plenty of confidence and there is no doubting the talent Evgeny Donskoy has after seeing him beat Roger Federer fourteen months ago. However that has not really been seen on the clay courts for the most part and especially not when Donskoy has come up against top 100 Ranked opponents.
In contrast the Tsitsipas numbers have been very impressive both on the serve and on the return and I think he has every chance of recording another strong win on Tuesday. The serve has been very difficult for opponents to get into, while the youngster has strong return numbers which suggests he will put Donskoy under some pressure in this match.
The conditions in Madrid are different to most clay courts that the players will see during this European clay court swing, but I don't think it will bother Tsitsipas too much. He should be the more confident player and he can put a big win on the board and cover a tough number in this one.
Philipp Kohlschreiber - 4.5 games v Yuichi Sugita: A run to the Final in Munich will have given Philipp Kohlschreiber a boost even if the veteran is clearly on the slide in his career. However he has tended to produce some of his best tennis on the clay courts and I think he is significantly better than Yuichi Sugita on this surface.
While Kohlschreiber has put plenty of wins on the board on this surface, Sugita has had one or two exceptional events mixed in with general struggles on the clay. Sugita's serve has proven to be very vulnerable on the clay courts, although he may get a little more pop out of it in the conditions in Madrid.
For the most part I do think Kohlschreiber will be able to get into the Sugita service games and doing that will put a lot of pressure on his opponent to produce a top returning day.
The Kohlschreiber serve has tended to be a little more reliable though and Sugita's return numbers on the clay courts are nothing to write home about. While Sugita is much improved across the board on the Tennis Tour, I do think he is still striving to find the way to produce his best tennis on the clay courts and someone like Kohlschreiber should be able to put him in enough awkward positions to force mistakes.
Kohlschreiber isn't as consistent as he once was and seems to be never too far away from a really poor day in the office, but he is well rested and I think that will see him produce a decent enough performance. That should be enough to produce a straight forward win on the day and I will look for the veteran to cover.
Richard Gasquet - 3.5 games v Dusan Lajovic: After surprising Karen Khachanov in the First Round with a very strong performance, Dusan Lajovic is going for another upset in the Second Round at the Madrid Masters. However it is tough to see the same thing happening when he faces Richard Gasquet who has produced some of his strongest tennis on the clay courts over the last few seasons.
The numbers have been really impressive when it comes to playing those players Ranked outside the top 50 in that time and Gasquet dismissed Tomas Berdych in very easy fashion in the First Round to show he is in form.
Gasquet is perhaps not serving as well as he should be which will give Lajovic a chance, but the latter's returning numbers are not that strong and he may not be able to challenge the Frenchman as deeply as others can.
Where Gasquet has been able to get into a position to win matches in dominant fashion is behind the return of serve which is as strong as any out there when facing these players outside the top 50. He has been able to get into a position to break serve a huge amount of times and I think Gasquet can put some real pressure on Lajovic even if the latter is coming out of a match where he served very well.
Generally the Lajovic numbers have been solid against top 100 Ranked players on the clay courts, but it is certainly a part of his game that will be tested to the full by Gasquet. I do think Gasquet has shown enough form to think he will get the better of the match and I think he can continue to display the numbers which will make him tough to beat for those players further down the World Rankings.
It is a big number of games to cover, but I think Gasquet is able to do that in a good looking win.
Fernando Verdasco - 4.5 games v Paolo Lorenzi: Two veterans of the Tour meet in the First Round at the Madrid Masters and I am going to back the home favourite to find his way through to the Second Round.
Fernando Verdasco and Paolo Lorenzi are both on the downward slope of their careers, but Verdasco has managed to remain competitive at a higher level than his Italian opponent.
He was an unfortunate loser in Monte Carlo and Verdasco's numbers on the clay courts still remain pretty decent. There is no doubt he is losing a little more pop from his serve in each passing season, but Verdasco continues to return very effectively on the surface and doing that here will give him every chance to cover a big number of games.
The Verdasco serve is a little more vulnerable, but Lorenzi has not been playing well enough to think he can take advantage. Lorenzi has struggled to get into the Verdasco service games in their previous matches against one another, and recent numbers don't suggest this match will be a lot different.
On the other hand Verdasco has been able to attack the Lorenzi serve and he should have more success on that side of the court after the numbers he has been putting together. It isn't as if Lorenzi has strong service numbers himself and I think Verdasco should be a little too strong for the Italian in the Madrid conditions.
This is a big number, but Verdasco should be able to get into a position to break the Lorenzi serve at least three times which could be good enough to cover.
MY PICKS: Kristyna Pliskova - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Stefanos Tsitsipas - 4.5 Games @ 2.20 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Philipp Kohlschreiber - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Richard Gasquet - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Madrid Masters Update: 2-2, - 0.52 Units (8 Units Staked, - 6.50% Yield)
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