Weekend Football Picks 2018 (May 13th)

The final weekend of the Premier League season is here and all of the matches are set to be played on Sunday with a 3pm kick off.

It's one of the more mundane end of the seasons in recent seasons in the top flight of English Football with pretty much every major position already decided. Yes the top four still has one more place available, but Liverpool need a single point to confirm their place in the Champions League, while Swansea City can escape the bottom three if they can also overturn a ten goal deficit to Southampton.

The final weekend picks are below.


Burnley v Bournemouth Pick: The final Premier League weekend of the 2017/18 season arrives and this is a weekend where it can be difficult to find out the motivations of teams.

Over the years we have seen a number of high-scoring games at this time of the season as teams perhaps lose some of the fight with a much needed break to come around the corner.

Burnley's achievement of finishing in the top seven has been a remarkable one and they have come off the boil since securing that finish. Failing to win their last 4 League games and losing the likes of Ashley Barnes and potentially Chris Wood for this fixture makes it a tough one for the home team.

On the other hand Bournemouth have to be pushing for a top half finish and they have not been in bad form, but just have not been rewarded with the results they would have wanted. A win last weekend over Swansea City gives Bournemouth a real chance to finish at least 10th in the League table and that may be enough to motivate them for one more big effort.

Bournemouth score goals which makes them dangerous against an opponent missing the first two choices in forward positions. Burnley have only scored 1 goal in their last 4 League games and so backing Bournemouth with the start on the Asian Handicap looks the play.


Huddersfield Town v Arsenal Pick: The final game as manager of Arsenal for Arsene Wenger is played this weekend, but his team have shown little in their ability to change their away form even after the manager announced his departure. The latest setback came in the 3-1 loss at Leicester City, but this weekend Arsenal face a Huddersfield Town team who have secured their place in the Premier League.

Huddersfield Town need to be given a lot of credit for draws at Manchester City and Chelsea this past seven days which has kept them in the top flight.

Goals have remained a problem for them though and the excitement of securing Premier League Football for another season may have kept the players from focusing on this fixture. David Wagner admitted they were going to celebrate hard on Wednesday evening and so you can't be too surprised if their intensity is down.

The Terriers have won 1 of their last 5 home games and they have not scored in the other 4 games which gives Arsenal a real chance to finally earn a away point in the Premier League in the 2018 calendar year. One thing Arsenal have continued to do is score goals but they can be hard to trust with defensive problems clear for everyone to see.

This may be a chance for Arsenal to secure a rare clean sheet though with their hosts likely losing a little bit of focus. Huddersfield Town do concede goals and having a small interest in Arsenal winning this one with a clean sheet looks a big price as the players sign off on the Arsene Wenger era with a positive result.


Liverpool v Brighton Pick: Most of the pressure has been lifted from Liverpool's shoulders in the race for the top four as soon as the final whistle blew at Stamford Bridge in Chelsea's 1-1 home draw with Huddersfield Town. That result means they are 2 points clear of Chelsea in the top four and with a vastly superior goal difference meaning a point will be enough for Champions League Football for another season.

That also means the players can play with a little more freedom on Sunday as they complete the League season and are sent off by the Anfield crowd ahead of the Champions League Final in two weeks time.

With a week to prepare for this fixture I do expect the Liverpool players to have just reset themselves mentally after a difficult couple of weeks. While they have been resting Brighton have had to play at Manchester City in the Premier League and this is a team who have not travelled well for much of this season.

With their own goals achieved for the campaign it might not be a big surprise if Brighton are not completely at the races on Sunday. Of course playing at Anfield will be a big motivation for many, but Brighton could be put on the back foot for long periods and even a slight decrease in intensity should give Liverpool the chance to record another home win.

Liverpool have won 6 of their last 8 games at Anfield and 5 of those wins have come by three or more goal margins. While I credit Brighton for the way they can defend, I think Liverpool might have too much intensity for them on Sunday and I will back the home team to secure a comfortable win for a boost of confidence in the build up to the Champions League Final.


Manchester United v Watford Pick: It sounds like a much changed Manchester United team will take to the field at Old Trafford on Sunday, but motivation for the players is still high as they look to push themselves into contention for the FA Cup Final. To be honest the starting line up looks pretty firmed up for the Final next weekend, but a big performance won't harm any of those players beginning this fixture on Sunday.

They have every chance of producing a big performance against a Watford team who have lost 11 of 12 away games in all competitions and who have been struggling for goals on their travels. Defensively they do give up chances so the likes of Anthony Martial and Marcus Rashford could have the opportunities to show the manager they can be trusted.

Manchester United have been strong at Old Trafford for much of the season and I do think they are going to be too good for Watford.

The changing line up does raise some doubts, but I think the likes of Martial, Juan Mata, and Rashford do offer attacking options that can keep the pressure on Watford. Despite the Watford win over Newcastle United last weekend, this is a group of players who tend to lack intensity at this time of the season once their safety in the Premier League has been secured.

The recent results back that up and a win over similarly disinterested Newcastle United doesn't change the fact for Watford.

Manchester United have beaten them 6 times in a row at Old Trafford and I will back the home team to secure a comfortable victory on Sunday to give themselves some momentum to take into the FA Cup Final.


Newcastle United v Chelsea Pick: There has to be a feeling of 'what might've been' for Chelsea after blowing the chance to join Liverpool on 72 points on Wednesday night. Instead they are 2 points behind the top four places with a single game to come and know Liverpool just need a point at home against Brighton to secure Champions League Football and consign Chelsea to the Europa League.

While I expect Antonio Conte to give his key players the chance to start, that mental blow may mean those players are keeping something in the tank for the FA Cup Final which is played next Saturday.

At a ground where Chelsea have struggled in recent years it is certainly a short price to see Chelsea as strong odds on to win at Newcastle United.

Some of that may be down to the fact that Newcastle United have lost 4 Premier League games in a row and are perhaps not as focused on their football ever since safety has been secured. However only 1 of those losses have come at home and Newcastle United had been unbeaten in 8 games there in all competitions and had won 4 League games in a row prior to their defeat to West Brom.

It also should be noted that Newcastle United played really well in their 1-0 defeat at Tottenham Hotspur on Wednesday and the players do like to perform at their best for their proud home supporters. That, coupled with Chelsea's likely disappointment of missing out of the top four, could see Newcastle United surprise.

They don't concede a lot of goals at home and it would be a surprise if Newcastle United are beaten comfortably. Personally I think they can avoid defeat in this fixture and I think Newcastle United can be backed with the start on the Asian Handicap which would return the stake if they lose by a one goal margin.


Southampton v Manchester City Pick: The Southampton players and management staff were very realistic about their chances of staying in the Premier League if they had failed to beat Swansea City on Tuesday. Even though Manchester City have won the Premier League, their visitors on the final day have continued to set high standards for themselves and Southampton would not have wanted to be in a position where they needed to beat the Champions to avoid relegation.

That is all a moot point now with The Saints securing their win at the Liberty Stadium and that means this is essentially a dead rubber. However Manchester City only play one way and it is going to be difficult for the home team to raise their intensity after the emotions of the win on Tuesday.

It will only end one way for Southampton if that turns out to be the case and I am expecting Manchester City to secure the three points to end the campaign with 100 points for the season.

They have won 5 of their last 6 away games in all competitions and all of those have come by at least a two goal margin. While Southampton have been improved under Mark Hughes there is every chance the home players just drop their intensity a touch which will see Manchester City control long periods of this one.

2 of the last 3 visits for Manchester City on this ground have resulted in comfortable away wins and I will back Pep Guardiola's men to record another on Sunday.


Swansea City v Stoke City Pick: There is going to be a lot of disappointed faces around the Liberty Stadium as both Swansea City and Stoke City prepare for their final Premier League fixture for at least fifteen months.

Neither club can be considered as guarantees to make a swift return to the top flight either in a very competitive Championship and both sets of players are going to feel they should not be in this position.

Swansea City have the most outside of chances to finish in 17th place but it will take two of the most outrageous results for that to happen as they look for a ten goal swing against Southampton.

This is a team who have simply not scored a lot of goals at late which is the main reason they have slipped into the bottom three. That lack of goals has seen Swansea City fail to score in 3 of their last 4 at home and Stoke City have shown toughness and determination in recent weeks.

Ultimately a lack of goals has cost Stoke City in their bid to avoid the drop too, while they have blown a number of leads in games which will have hurt Paul Lambert even more. The ability to take the lead in games makes them dangerous for Swansea City though and I think the home team are a very short price because they 'need' the win on Sunday.

Even a win is unlikely to be enough though and I think the players all have a 'feel sorry for themselves' attitude which is going to make it tough to perform. Stoke City have been tough to beat away from home in recent weeks and I think they can at least continue that and drag Swansea City through the trapdoor with them.

It is hard to judge how teams will perform with relegation confirmed, but I will look for Stoke City to avoid defeat.


Tottenham Hotspur v Leicester City Pick: There could have been some considerable pressure on Tottenham Hotspur heading into this weekend, but Chelsea's failure to beat Huddersfield Town have relieved them of all tension.

It is a chance for Tottenham Hotspur to get on the front foot on Sunday especially against a Leicester City who have not been in great form. The win over Arsenal was a solid result for Leicester City, but they had lost 4 of 5 League games prior to that and the performances against Crystal Palace and West Ham United were not really good enough.

Anything like that level at Wembley Stadium would likely result in a comfortable win for Tottenham Hotspur and I think the latter can do that on Sunday.

Tottenham Hotspur do have a poor recent home record against Leicester City and playing at Wembley Stadium should motivate the latter's players. However Leicester City have not looked right in recent weeks and I do think the players have made it clear they are not fully behind Claude Puel.

Leicester City have lost 4 of their last 6 away Premier League games and Tottenham Hotspur have been strong at Wembley Stadium for the majority of this season. With the pressure off, I expect Tottenham Hotspur to be able to express themselves and have their forward players produce a solid display which leads to a win by a couple of goals on the day.

MY PICKS: Bournemouth + 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Arsenal Win to Nil @ 3.25 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Liverpool - 2 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester United - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Newcastle United + 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester City - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Stoke City + 0.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)