The NBA Conference Finals have rolled around after an underwhelming Semi Final Round which saw the four teams progress without losing more than one game in any of those Series.
We are down to the four teams that most would have picked back in October as the Houston Rockets, Golden State Warriors, Boston Celtics and Cleveland Cavaliers have come through some difficult Play Off moments to take their place in the Conference Finals.
Of course it hasn't been plain sailing for any of these teams during a long season either but it looks very much like we are going to see another Golden State-Cleveland NBA Finals which would make it the fourth time in a row those teams have met in June.
My NBA Picks in the Play Offs have been downright disgusting and I will make no excuse for that. Some bad picks have been mixed in with some poor luck and that has led to a really poor last month.
Hopefully I can at least end this season with some positives by producing a strong Conference Finals and NBA Finals record, but it has been tough road.
Sunday 13th May
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Boston Celtics Pick: The Eastern Conference Finals begin on Sunday and it would have been the two teams that most would have picked back in October as the most likely to be competing for a spot in the NBA Finals. A long season has seen the expectations remain set, but the belief in the Boston Celtics and the Cleveland Cavaliers has been fluctuating to the say the least.
The Celtics have been hit by the injury bug which has kept Gordon Hayward and Kyrie Irving out for extended time, but a young roster has rallied together to become greater than the sum of their parts. They have overcome the Milwaukee Bucks and Philadelphia 76ers in the first two Rounds of the Play Offs despite being an underdog both times and the Boston Celtics are very comfortable coming into the Eastern Conference Finals with people believing they are the dogs again.
For the Cleveland Cavaliers it has been an up and down season which saw them blow up their roster ahead of the trade deadline as the early chemistry was not coming together as they liked. After a tough Series with the Indiana Pacers in the First Round, the Cleveland Cavaliers look to be peaking at the right time following a sweep of the Number 1 Seeded Toronto Raptors.
LeBron James is the best player on the court by some distance, but the Celtics feel they have the players who can come together and at least slow the progress made by The King. James has been almost impossible to stop so far, but it was the support given to him by the likes of Kevin Love that helped Cleveland dominate the Eastern Conference Semi Final Series in the manner they did.
Those support players are going to be key again as Cleveland try and break down the tough Defensive schemes the Boston Celtics can put together. It is clear Brad Stevens is a top Head Coach and he will have the game plan to try and shut down the Cleveland Cavaliers, but the talent is with the lower Seed and if Cleveland get going the way they did in the Eastern Conference Semi Final Series then they will be very difficult to beat.
The Boston Celtics have shown they are very strong at home as they remain unbeaten here with seven wins in the Play Offs. That has to be respected and the layers are also respecting that with the small spread offered on this game which is very difficult to read.
I can't really decide whether I like the Celtics or the Cavaliers in Game 1 and I can make a case for both.
The better angle may be picking the teams to combine for more than the total points being offered in this one. The Cavaliers have shown strength Offensively with more support coming from the role players and the bench, but the Boston Celtics are a team who can create fast breaks and their young players have been growing game by game.
The total points is almost 10 points shorter than their regular season meetings because of the injuries to the Boston Celtics roster, but they have shown they can perform under this pressure. They are a dangerous team in transition and hit plenty of three pointers themselves and backing the total points line to be surpassed in the opening play.
Monday 14th May
Golden State Warriors @ Houston Rockets Pick: There will be plenty of people out there who will feel the 'real' NBA Finals is going to be played in the Western Conference Finals with the top two teams out West meeting one another. The defending Champions Golden State Warriors have set the standards for the NBA over the last three seasons and they are almost at dynasty level of success and will reach that mark by winning their third NBA Championship in four years.
Setting the standards means teams strive to put together the roster that will give them confidence of beating the Warriors in a best of seven series. The team that have looked to have done that the best in the 2017/18 season is the Houston Rockets who finished with the best record in the NBA after putting Chris Paul alongside James Harden in the back court.
Paul has been a huge success for the Rockets in the Play Offs as he is making his first appearance in a Conference Finals in his career. It was Paul who was making the big plays as Houston saw off the Utah Jazz in five games in the Conference Semi Final Series, but Harden is never far away from taking over a game himself.
Still, it is a big challenge in front of these two stars as they go up against a Golden State Warriors team who have dominated the San Antonio Spurs and New Orleans Pelicans on their way to a fourth consecutive Western Conference Finals.
Golden State have some of the most talented players in the NBA and they are as healthy as they have been at any time this season as they have looked to have peaked at the right time. It looks like the Warriors have done that and they are starting their top five players which has helped them make strong starts while also picking up their performances on the Defensive side of the court.
Much of the success in this Series is going to come down to which of these teams is most effective from the three point range. That is a key shot for both the Warriors and the Rockets but it does feel like Golden State are trending positively while Houston have gone cold a little too often even during their solid Play Off run.
Going cold against the Jazz and the Timberwolves isn't a big issue, but going cold against the Golden State Warriors can see teams find themselves quickly being blown out in what was otherwise a close game.
That is my fear for the Rockets and I do think Golden State are going to win this Series perhaps easier than most people would expect. The first two games in Houston are huge for the Rockets who have to find a way to try and get into a 2-0 lead before heading to the Oracle Arena later this week.
Ultimately I think the Golden State Warriors are playing the better basketball at the moment and I would not be surprised in the slightest if they are able to win both games on the road. With Kevin Durant, Draymond Green, Klay Thompson, Andre Iguodala and Stephen Curry all looking like they are getting into their best basketball I think the Warriors can be backed as the underdog to win Game 1 in Houston.
Of course you have to respect Houston who can get very comfortable from the three point range when they begin to feel their best basketball. However their numbers are down across the Play Offs from that arc and I think the Warriors will take advantage in Game 1 to steal away home court advantage immediately.
Tuesday 15th May
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Boston Celtics Pick: Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals was dominated by the Boston Celtics who maintained their unbeaten run at home in the Play Offs after leading the Cleveland Cavaliers from wire to wire. The young players who have grown up in the post-season continue to share the ball around and all make a significant impact on the game and Boston are going to feel good about their chances of making it 2-0 against the Cavaliers before heading to Cleveland for two games later this week.
Defensively Boston were very strong as they made sure LeBron James was not able to take over as he has done so often in the Play Offs this season and throughout his career. It was a sub-par effort from James, who would admit that himself, but there is no panic from a player who has been a regular in the NBA Finals for the last decade.
As James himself stated after Game 1 this is not 'March Madness' and the Cavaliers have the chance to make the adjustments they need to level up this Series.
The Celtics know they have to expect a big reaction from James and the Cavaliers and Brad Stevens is going to try and make the adjustments to counter what Cleveland bring to the table. Boston can't expect the Cavaliers to be as poor from the three point range as they were in Game 1 especially when you consider some of the really open looks that were failed to be knocked down.
It was the role players who really struggled for Cleveland in Game 1 and they recognise they need to step up their play if they are going to win a tough Series against the short-handed Boston Celtics. Tristan Thompson may be restored to the starting line up to try and give Al Horford a bigger challenge and the layers are finding it tough to separate these teams with Boston the narrow favourites in Game 2 having been a small underdog in Game 1.
I do like the chances of Cleveland bouncing back in Game 2 as that is something they have done throughout LeBron James' time in the Play Offs off a defeat. You have to think they are going to be better shooting the ball in Game 2 now they are playing with a little more rhythm having had a few days to rest ahead of Game 1 and James is likely to go back to all out attack mode which is difficult for any opponent to slow down.
The underdog might be worth a play, but I also think the market in Game 1 that I backed has to be worth looking at again. The Boston Celtics continue to play well Offensively at home and I expect Cleveland to be a lot better than 36% from the field if they get anything like the open shots they missed in Game 1.
The total points line has come down slightly from Game 1, but it did have a shot to surpass that line if Cleveland had not made such a poor start to the Fourth Quarter. As I am anticipating a much better performance from the road team and expecting Boston to maintain their scoring power at home, this maybe yet another home Play Off game the Celtics play which goes 'over' the total.
Wednesday 16th May
Golden State Warriors @ Houston Rockets Pick: The Golden State Warriors may not be the higher Seed in this Western Conference Finals, but their performance in Game 1 will have underlined to the Houston Rockets that they remain the team to beat in the NBA. A dominant second half allowed the Warriors to pull away for a comfortable win and steal away home court with the return to California coming after Game 2.
That doesn't mean the Warriors are satisfied with what they have done in Game 1 and they will very much be looking for another win on the road to move into a dominant position in the Series. Steve Kerr will be expecting the Houston Rockets to make the adjustments to try and level the Series and he is going to be looking to put his players in a position where they can secure a 2-0 lead and perhaps look for a big time sweep later in the week.
Golden State have the talent to do that and the Rockets know they have to find a way to get their shooters in a better position to have an impact in Game 2. James Harden got his bucketload of points as usual, but it was clear the Warriors were settling for that and making sure the the three point shot was not a major factor outside of the superstar.
You could see the attitude clearly with the lack of assists Harden got to the outside shooters, while Chris Paul was also limited. Expect the Houston Rockets to try and get Stephen Curry into more one on one Defensive plays which is an area they excelled at in Game 1, but both Harden and Paul know they need one or two more players to step up to the plate if they are going to win this one.
It looks a long shot and I said before Game 1 and even before this Series began that I thought Golden State were going to be far too good for the Rockets. Nothing has really changed my mind and even the expected adjustments made by the home team may not be enough to get out of this Series with more than a single win.
I just can't have the Golden State Warriors as the underdog for a second game in a row especially when you consider they know there is still room for improvement. Of course the Houston Rockets could see their role players find their feet and hit a huge number of three pointers which could change this game, but Golden State look the more effective Offensively and they look the superior team Defensively while the experience of having won rings cannot be downplayed in any way.
The teams barely finished 'under' the total points line in Game 1 and I think they may get a few more points on the board with Houston expected to play with a little more speed, but ultimately I am looking for the underdog to bite again and move the Warriors into a commanding position in the Series.
Saturday 19th May
Boston Celtics @ Cleveland Cavaliers Pick: LeBron James is simply not used to being in a position like this one as his Cleveland Cavaliers return to their home Arena 0-2 down in the Eastern Conference Finals. NBA teams who fall to 0-3 in the Play Offs do not win Series so there is a lot of pressure on the Cleveland Cavaliers to find the right formula to take down the Boston Celtics.
A poor second half Offensively cost the Cleveland Cavaliers a chance to steal away home court in Game 2 and ultimately they have fallen to another double digit loss. While the Cavaliers have felt the more up and down team, Boston have continued playing their steady basketball and their strong Defensive schemes have helped them get back into games.
The Celtics have won the first two games in different ways with the first coming wire to wire and the second seeing them come from behind to wear down the Cavaliers. That is going to give this young team a lot of confidence, but it is hard to ignore the difference between their home form and road form in the Play Offs.
While the Celtics have won all nine home Play Off games so far, Boston are also 1-4 on the road and that is an issue for them. It may not be a crucial factor in this Series if the Celtics keep playing as well as they are at home, but the NBA Final is going to be on the road and the young roster are going to try and prove they are capable by winning at least one of the road games here in Cleveland.
Boston still believe there is better to come from them but much is going to depend on how much consistency they can get from the three point shot. They also have to keep the Cleveland role players quiet having frustrated JR Smith to the point of Smith committing some obvious flagrant fouls in Game 2 which almost sparked a brawl.
That is also what Cleveland have to be focusing on- they know they are going to get a big game from LeBron James, but they won't win this game unless they are getting more from other sources.
You have to expect Cleveland are going to come out hot as they did in Game 2 and I think they can be backed on the first half spread which continues to provide a positive return for those teams down 0-2 in the Play Offs. Those teams are 4-2 against the spread in the six times that situation has been seen in this year's Play Offs and it has a very strong record over the last couple of years.
With a hot home crowd behind them, I think the Cleveland Cavaliers are going to come out with focus to take the game to a Boston Celtics team who have not been as strong on the road. The Celtics might be the better overall team in this Series, but Cleveland should not go down without a fight and I will back them to be leading and covering the number at the end of the first half.
Monday 21st May
Boston Celtics @ Cleveland Cavaliers Pick: All three games in this Eastern Conference Finals have been uncompetitive and the blow out win for the Cleveland Cavaliers in Game 3 has halved the deficit in the Series. They will be looking to get back to 2-2 before the Eastern Conference Finals moves back to Boston later this week and Cleveland will be hoping they can pick up from where they left off in Game 3.
LeBron James is always going to the key player for the Cavaliers, but he was given the kind of support he has been looking for throughout this Series. This time the role players managed to have a big impact in the game with the likes of George Hill and JR Smith scoring the points and using their aggressiveness to help break down the Boston Defensive shapes which had been so important in helping them get to a 2-0 position in the Series.
The Celtics will be looking to make adjustments to slow down the Cavaliers who got back on track Offensively. It is a big test for Boston considering how poorly they have played in the 2018 Play Offs on the road as they dropped a fifth game in six road games in the post-season.
Offensively they have not been the same team on the road as they have been at home and Brad Stevens has to find a way to give his players the belief out of their comfort zone at the TD Garden. The younger players are building an experience that will serve them well in future seasons, but they have just found it tough to produce their best basketball in tougher road environments.
I have to expect Boston are going to be more competitive than they were in Game 3 and the spread looks much harder to call in Game 4. The total continues to be a happy hunting ground for 'under' backers but they have been fortunate in each of the last two games and I think this may be the time for the 'over' to finally come in.
It has taken the teams to go cold in the final two minutes of each of the last two games to prevent the 'over' coming in, but a more competitive finish should mean there are at least some fouls down the stretch. With Cleveland likely to continue to play aggressively and Boston unlikely to only hit six three pointers like they did in Game 3 I think the over is going to be a winner in this one.
Tuesday 22nd May
Houston Rockets @ Golden State Warriors Pick: A 41 point blow out in Game 3 has put the Golden State Warriors 2-1 ahead in the Western Conference Finals against the Houston Rockets and they will be looking to back that up with another in Game 4. The Series is finely balanced with the Warriors looking to cement home advantage by holding serve in Game 4, but the Houston Rockets have shown some heart by bouncing back from their previous losses in the Play Offs.
A win for the Rockets will mean they have made the Western Conference Finals a best of three situation with two of those games to be played at home. However a loss for the Rockets will raise a lot of questions as they would be on the brink of elimination in a season where they finished with the most wins in the NBA.
That puts some pressure on Houston going into Game 4, even if Mike D'Antoni is doing his best to shift that away from his players by suggesting this game is more important to Golden State. D'Antoni will be looking for a reaction from his team who have won the game after their previous three losses in the Play Offs by an average of over 20 points per game.
Winning on the road against the Golden State Warriors who have won sixteen home Play Off games in a row is a huge challenge though and much bigger than when Houston won Game 2 at home after dropping Game 1 in this Series. The 41 point blow out highlighted the difference between the teams when the Rockets even come slightly off the boil and I do think the Warriors are the better team.
Seeing Stephen Curry get back on track would be a huge boost for Golden State who have some of the best shooters in the NBA which makes them incredibly tough to defend when they are playing like they did last time out. That Offensive fire has fed into the Defensive performances and once again the Warriors shut down the role players Houston need to make this a competitive Series.
They will be looking to do the same again on Tuesday although the potential absence of Andre Iguodala is a blow for the home team. That is countered by Houston with Chris Paul struggling for full health and it just feels like it could be another long evening for Houston if their players like Trevor Ariza, Eric Gordon and PJ Tucker are not finding their mark from the three point range.
Golden State have always looked the more steady team to me and they know either Curry, Klay Thompson or Kevin Durant are never too far away from getting hot from the field. The home performances in the Play Offs make the Warriors clear favourites to win it all from here and I think they can win by another double digit margin against the Rockets.
I have not doubt this game will be closer than Game 3, but ultimately I like the Warriors to get it going and eventually be able to pull away from the Number 1 Seed. The Rockets will make it easy for Golden State if they struggle from the field as they did last time out, but even a more competitive overall performance may not be enough to change the actual outcome of this game.
Wednesday 23rd May
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Boston Celtics Pick: Both of the Conference Finals are heating up with both Series at 2-2 which means a best of three game situation to determine which teams will be playing in the NBA Finals that begin later this month. The Eastern Conference Finals has seen both the Boston Celtics and Cleveland Cavaliers holding serve at home but the momentum is with the latter who have come from 0-2 down back to 2-2.
That won't be a massive concern for Boston who had the same situation in the First Round of the Play Offs when facing the Milwaukee Bucks. In that Series Boston managed to win all four home games to take the Series in seven games and they have maintained their perfect home record in the Play Offs by winning all nine games played in the TD Garden.
It will give Boston plenty of confidence to take into Game 5 especially when you think of the points they left on the court in Game 4. I have never seen a team miss as many layups and dunks as the Boston Celtics did in Game 4 and those led to transition baskets for the Cavaliers and proved to be a big difference in a close game.
Boston remain confident they can get back on track on their return home and much of that is down to the good looks they got in Game 4. The team as a whole have been much better at home than on the road and adding in that factor means they will be a little disrespected as being set as a narrow underdog in Game 5.
The teams have both continued to break down the Defensive schemes set by the other and I think it is reasonable to back the over in another game. Once again it was a quiet end to Game 4 which almost saw these teams slip under the total again, but I think both are playing well enough Offensively to earn another surpassing of the total points line.
Cleveland have not played as well in Boston as they did in the last two games at home, but they have some momentum now. Kevin Love has been struggling for consistency, but JR Smith and Kyle Korver have stepped up their impact from the three point line and Cleveland will be looking for those two players to bring that onto the road.
LeBron James will continue playing his big game, but I expect Boston to respond to the punches they have taken in Game 3 and Game 4 and I think this is going to be a fun Game 5.
Thursday 24th May
Golden State Warriors @ Houston Rockets Pick: A terrible Fourth Quarter in Game 4 cost the Golden State Warriors a chance to win and move into a 3-1 position in the Western Conference Finals. The 12 points scored in the final Quarter means the Warriors have also given up home court advantage as the Series moves into a best of three with the Houston Rockets feeling they have the momentum behind them.
The Rockets will be looking to become the first team in the Series to win back to back games when they return home on Thursday. This is also a time when fatigue begins to show on teams and they are looking to produce the same kind of Defensive effort which helped them drag the Warriors back who had a double digit lead going into the Fourth Quarter before falling away.
Much of the success for the Houston Rockets depends on getting someone other than James Harden going. In Game 4 it was Chris Paul who produced his best game of the Western Conference Finals as he continues to battle through a foot issue as he tries to reach his first NBA Finals.
Houston will be looking to keep the momentum going from the final Quarter on Tuesday, but they have to expect better from the Warriors who felt they fatigued a little bit. Losing Andre Iguodala, who is questionable for Game 5, means the rotation is a little less deep while Steve Kerr admitted he was trying to get some rest into his players.
There isn't a big concern that this fatigue has settled in, but the lead may have been a factor in Game 4 and Kerr expects his team to respond in the right way. Even the players are speaking with the confidence that comes from having won two of three visits to Houston this season and knowing it was as much to do with themselves as any Rockets improvement that they are not 3-1 ahead in the Series.
Nothing has really happened in this Series for me to change my opinion that the Warriors are the superior team and I think they bounce back from the last loss. Both teams have shown character to come back from defeats which has to be respected and I have been more impressed with the Rockets than I thought I would be.
However I think the Golden State Warriors should have won Game 4 and they look like a group who still very much believe they can turn the screw on the Rockets when they need to. This is one of those situations and I will back the Warriors as the underdog to come through with a win.
Friday 25th May
Boston Celtics @ Cleveland Cavaliers Pick: The Boston Celtics have continued their home dominance in the NBA Play Offs and they have moved to the brink of making the NBA Finals against all the odds. Nothing is confirmed for the Celtics despite moving into a 3-2 lead as they have struggled in their two road games in Cleveland and the Cavaliers are going to be a desperate team looking to save their season.
LeBron James is potentially playing his last ever home game for the Cleveland Cavaliers and there is every chance this could be his last game for his home team period. While he has been a strong presence throughout the NBA Play Offs, there were definite signs of fatigue in Game 5 which has to be a big worry for the Cavaliers.
There is too much inconsistency from the role players to expect Cleveland to win this Eastern Conference Finals without James at the very top of his game, but I would anticipate a response from The King. His streak of seven straight NBA Finals is on the line here and James has routinely saved his very best for these situations which is going to be on the minds of the Celtics players as they travel to Cleveland for Game 6.
It also has to be noted that Boston have overachieved, but their talented young group have not been as good on the road as they have at home. A single road win this deep into the Play Offs highlights that, while the points per game differential between home and road games is also clear for anyone to see.
Slow starts have been their downfall in both games in Cleveland whereas the Celtics have rode the energy of the crowd in all three home games to make much more positive beginnings. This is a key factor at play, but Boston look fresher than the Cavaliers at this point and they must feel their time has come to record a huge statement road win.
Backing against LeBron in desperation mode is not easy, but the Boston Defensive unit are all over James and that has contributed to the fatigue he is feeling. Barring Kevin Love, George Hill and JR Smith combining for a huge game or someone coming off the bench and making a deep impact this looks a big test for the Cavaliers and one they may just have to dig deep to pass.
Digging deep means I am anticipating a close game in a Series which has not really produced one yet. All five games have been won in strong style by the home team, but I think this is the time for the Celtics to punch Cleveland in the mouth early and have every chance to win this Series on Friday.
Taking the points with the road team looks the way to go and I am hoping they don't make the poor start which has cost them in Game 3 and Game 4 here.
MY PICKS: 13/05 Boston Celtics-Cleveland Cavaliers Over 204.5 Points @ 1.90 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
14/05 Golden State Warriors @ 2.10 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
15/05 Cleveland Cavaliers @ 2.00 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
15/05 Boston Celtics-Cleveland Cavaliers Over 203.5 Points @ 1.91 Boyle Sports (1 Unit)
16/05 Golden State Warriors @ 2.10 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
16/05 Houston Rockets-Golden State Warriors Over 224.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
19/05 Cleveland Cavaliers - 5.5 Points First Half Spread @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
21/05 Cleveland Cavaliers-Boston Celtics Over 205.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
22/05 Golden State Warriors - 8.5 Points @ 2.00 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
23/05 Boston Celtics @ 1.85 William Hill (1 Unit)
23/05 Boston Celtics-Cleveland Cavaliers Over 204.5 Points @ 1.91 Boyle Sports (1 Unit)
24/05 Golden State Warriors @ 1.95 Betfair Sportsbook (1 Unit)
25/05 Boston Celtic + 7 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Conference Finals Update: 5-7, - 2.32 Units (12 Unit Staked, - 19.33% Yield)
No comments:
Post a Comment