Once again it looks like Rafael Nadal is going into the French Open as the undisputed favourite to win the title and I just can't see someone who is going to be able to play the type of tennis needed for three or four hours and win a best of five set match against the Spaniard.
The draw could not have been much kinder to Nadal and I think he is going to be feasting on an opponent who would have got through a tremendously tough bottom half when the Final is played on Sunday 10th June.
On the other hand the women's draw looks wide open again with a number of players who will feel this is their time to win a Grand Slam title. A maiden Slam for someone like Simona Halep is long overdue, but Karolina Pliskova has been in good form and there are a couple of dark horses like Kiki Bertens who could go close.
Maiden winners in Paris like Petra Kvitova will also be feeling confident and a deep draw is highlighted by the prices in the outright market. The favourite is going to go off at 6-1 and I think the women's draw is the most interesting from the outright point of view.
The matches that are set to go should provide some classics if they all come together, and I am looking forward to the two weeks in Paris to round out this part of the season before the majority of the Tour move onto the grass in preparation for Wimbledon which begins in a little over a month from now.
Men's Tournament
It won't surprise anyone that the men's tournament at the French Open is dominated by Rafael Nadal at the top of the market having once again produced some strong tennis over the last two months on the clay courts.
Coming back off an injury there were some doubts about Nadal, but he has erased those and he is clearly the player to beat in the draw.
That position was only strengthened on Thursday evening when the draw was made as Nadal was placed in the top half and the closest rivals he has on the clay courts were all placed in the bottom half.
Truly.
I mean Nadal has seen Grigor Dimitrov, David Goffin, Novak Djokovic, Dominic Thiem (the one player who has beaten Nadal on the clay this season) and Alexander Zverev (pushed Nadal all the way in the Rome Masters Final) all placed in the second half of the draw and the Spaniard could not have hand picked a better draw for himself.
There are always some dangers lurking in a Grand Slam draw, but Nadal looks absolutely nailed on to reach the Final in two weeks time barring an injury.
A path that consists most likely of Alexandr Dolgopolov, Joao Sousa, Richard Gasquet, Denis Shapovalov, Diego Sebastian Schwartzman and Marin Cilic to reach the Final is one that Nadal should negotiate as comfortably as being disappointed if he drops more than two sets overall.
As I have said, the prices have reflected Nadal's position and it is almost impossible to back him here.
More interesting may be trying to pick someone to come out of the loaded bottom half of the draw to challenge Rafael Nadal in the Final in two weeks time. All of those names I mentioned are leading the way in the 'Reach The Final' market, but it is the Number 2 Seeded Alexander Zverev that offers the most interest.
Zverev has started to show he is a real threat at the Masters 1000 level having reached back to back Finals in Madrid and Rome with a title secured in the Spanish capital. The question marks remain about this Grand Slam temperament though as Zverev has yet to make a Quarter Final at this level which is a stunning stat for a World Number 3.
He isn't an overrated Number 3 either and it does feel a matter of time before Zverev not only makes an impact in the Slams, but actually goes on and wins one. Once that happens I think the young German is going to become a multiple Slam winner, a World Number 1 and perhaps the leading name in men's tennis in the years after the likes of Nadal and Roger Federer move on.
The lack of success at the Slam level is a legitimate concern for Zverev, but he could not have asked for a much better draw to get his teeth into the tournament. I'd make Zverev a very strong favourite win any of the potential first three matches he faces, while Lucas Pouille is a player whose limited return shouldn't pose a lot of problems as a potential Fourth Round opponent.
Stan Wawrinka is another who potentially waits in that Round, but he is only recently back from a long standing injury and Zverev should be good enough to at least reach the Quarter Final for the first time.
Things get much more interesting for him there with some solid looking players that could potentially await- Dominic Thiem is a former Semi Finalist at Roland Garros and arguably the third best clay courter in the world right now behind Nadal and Zverev; Kei Nishikori has had a strong clay court season again and has twice reached the Quarter Final here; Stefanos Tsitsipas looks a promising player for the future but this tournament is likely too early for him.
The hope for Zverev is that Thiem and Nishikori take something away from one another in their potential Fourth Round clash and the winner may not have enough to beat the in form German over five sets in any Quarter Final.
The Fourth Quarter of the draw does look the most likely to provide any Finalist to oppose Rafael Nadal although there are some solid players in the Third Quarter too.
However I would have a little more doubts about the ability of those to make the Final.
Novak Djokovic (still finding his best tennis, although improving all the time), Grigor Dimitrov (weak clay court pedigree compared to others), David Goffin (tougher draw than most) and Pablo Carreno Busta (erratic clay court season).
Picking someone to come out of this section is no easier with some of the doubts surrounding those involved and the player most likely to reach the Final looks to be Alexander Zverev who is set to announce himself as a major player in the sport.
If it wasn't for some injury doubts, I would really favour Marin Cilic to come out of the Second Quarter of the men's draw, but even then I think the Croatian has the chance to complete his set of Semi Final appearances at all four Majors played.
Cilic played well in Rome when reaching the Semi Final before narrowly going down to Zverev, and the Second Quarter looks considerably weaker than the ones that follow.
There are some interesting names in the section including Fabio Fognini, Kyle Edmund, Tomas Berdych and Juan Martin Del Potro, but the latter two have had serious injury issues which tempers enthusiasm for them.
Fognini has been far too erratic this season, but Kyle Edmund could be the danger in the section.
Edmund is very comfortable on the clay courts and the Semi Final run at the Australian Open will have given the British Number 1 plenty of belief in his ability to cause waves in Paris. The Quarter Final and Third Round run at the last two Masters shows Edmund is in good nick and he is certainly capable of making it back to back Slam Semi Finals if on his game.
My fear for Edmund is he has a tougher run to the potential Fourth Round match with Marin Cilic with Fognini and Marton Fucsovics potential opponents before then. Both of those players have reached at least the Semi Final of events in the lead up to the French Open which shows they are in some form and Edmund has had a couple of poorer results on the clay courts which makes him vulnerable in this section.
The men's tournament doesn't look as intriguing as the women's event when breaking down the draws in the outright view, but there are some top matches that could be played over the next couple of weeks. The bottom half of the draw is so loaded that barring upsets galore there are going to be some huge matches in the second week of the tournament.
That'll bring excitement into an event that I expect ends with Rafael Nadal picking up an eleventh French Open title.
Picking the top two Seeds to make the Final looks boring, but I do think that is the most likely outcome of this tournament as Alexander Zverev makes his breakthrough at the Grand Slam level.
With the draw being the way it is, I think Zverev will be the freshest of those players in the bottom half of the section when it comes round to the Quarter Final and Semi Final matches, while he has already been playing like the second best clay courter in the world.
Picking Zverev to 'Reach the Final' is one of my outright picks from the men's draw.
The other is Marin Cilic to win the Second Quarter at a big price even though I was intrigued by Kyle Edmund's position in the draw. Injury concerns aside, Cilic looked stronger in Rome and he has the returning ability on the clay coupled with a big serve to come through an open section.
Cilic has regularly reached the business end of Slams and I expect he will be good enough to see off Edmund in a tough Fourth Round match which should see him in a very winnable Quarter Final.
The Croatian is a big price to complete his set of Semi Finals at the Majors and worth a small interest.
Women's Tournament
While Rafael Nadal goes into the French Open as strong odds on favourite, the Number 1 Seed and favourite to win the women's event is Simona Halep at 6-1.
That just underlines how open the women's Tour has been ever since Serena Williams stepped away to have a child.
Serena is in the draw this week in Paris, but her lack of clay court tennis has to be a negative against her despite Williams showing many times in the past that she can win big events with little tennis behind her.
Despite that lack of tennis, Williams is the fourth favourite in Paris as the layers don't want to take chances with a player who will be tough to stop if she builds up some momentum. However I would find it hard to back the American considering the rust she showed in her two appearances in North American at Indian Wells and Miami, while Williams has also been placed in what looks an incredibly tough section of the draw.
It is possible Serena gets through the first couple of tough looking matches before going on and dominating, but neither Kristyna Pliskova or Ashleigh Barty look like players to take lightly. Even then a potential Third Round clash with the feisty Dominika Cibulkova looks a tough one to predict, while the likes of Maria Sharapova or Karolina Pliskova could wait in the Fourth Round.
That is a tough road for Serena Williams and the draw has also not been kind to Pliskova who looked a real dark horse to win here despite clay not being her favoured surface. While she begins with a Qualifier, the potential to face two former winners in Paris in Sharapova and Serena in back to back matches is a tough draw and that is simply to make the Quarter Final.
Instead the section could be left at the mercy of another former Champion here in Garbine Muguruza, but I don't think anyone can back the Spaniard with confidence after a poor clay court season. To be fair to Muguruza she did not look in great nick in preparation for Wimbledon last season and went on to win the tournament and the clay court pedigree does make her dangerous.
The draw could have been a little kinder to Muguruza too, but she does have the quality to make her Seeding count in this section of the draw, especially if she can get past First Round opponent Svetlana Kuznetsova.
It is a decent looking draw for Simona Halep as the Number 1 Seed and the two time former Finalist in Paris is hoping this is the year she finally goes one better and wins her first Grand Slam. Losing at the Australian Open in the Final against Caroline Wozniacki has raised the doubts whether Halep has the mentality to win the big one, but she is a worthy favourite here with the way the draw has panned out.
Facing home favourite Kristina Mladenovic in a potential Third Round will give Halep the chance to prove she can cope with the pressure that comes in these Slam events, but it may be another Frenchwoman who poses the biggest threat in the First Quarter of the draw.
Caroline Garcia has been in fine form on the clay courts the past two months and there won't be too many concerns until the Fourth Round when either Kiki Bertens or Angelique Kerber await. The head to head with Halep would always be a concern for Garcia if she was to reach the Quarter Final, while Bertens and Kerber have shown flashes of their ability on the clay courts, but could have hoped for better paths through to the later stages of the tournament.
It does feel like Halep is going to come out of this section of the draw, especially when you think she has reached the Quarter Final in five of the last seven Grand Slams. Both exceptions have come in First Round losses, but Halep should be good enough to take care of Alison Riske and then make her way through to another Quarter Final where she should be a significant favourite to reach another French Open Semi Final.
The player considered the biggest threat to Halep in taking the title home is also another who is searching for a maiden Slam success having proved herself on the Tour around the Majors. Elina Svitolina heads up the Third Quarter of the draw and has plenty of clay court pedigree which puts her amongst the favourites to win the title in Paris.
There is no doubt Svitolina has to be one of the top Seeds who is very pleased with the way the draw has panned out and I like her chances to make the Quarter Final without too many scares. Naomi Osaka and Madison Keys are big hitting opponents who have to be respected, but neither are at their best on the clay courts and Svitolina should be confident of beating either in any potential Fourth Round match.
Two players who have to be paid attention to in this section of the draw potentially meet in the Second Round- Jelena Ostapenko is the defending Champion and Victoria Azarenka may have been one of the most dangerous Unseeded players alongside Serena Williams.
Azarenka has had a tough couple of years with injury and a custodial battle which has prevented her return to the Tour after giving birth. That has seen her drop down the World Rankings but this is a player who is capable of beating the very best when performing at her best and needs to be respected.
The winner of the potential Second Round match between Ostapenko and Azarenka is likely to be the opponent for Svitolina in the Quarter Final and both of those players would be tough match ups for the Number 4 Seed.
It certainly tempers my enthusiasm for Svitolina, while her failure to reach a Semi Final at Grand Slam level may also mean nerves go against her against two players who have won Slams.
The player I have been most intrigued about in the women's draw is a surprisingly big price considering she has won a couple of clay court titles in 2018- Petra Kvitova made her return to the Tour a year ago following a knife attack in her home in December 2016, but she is looking back to her best and a real danger against anyone she faces.
Kvitova did win the title in Madrid on what is considered one of the faster clay courts out there and she has not had a lot of success at the Grand Slam level since winning her second Wimbledon title. In twelve Slams since then, Kvitova's best performances have been two Quarter Final runs while she has not reached the Quarter Final in Paris since her Semi Final run here in 2012.
Confidence looks to be restored though and Kvitova has the big hitting game which can carry her past a number of opponents in the bottom half of the draw. The style can be a little close to the margins though which is why I think Kvitova has not done better on the clay, especially when you have to hit more balls than she would on the grass or hard courts and thus leading to more mistakes in her play.
The Czech lefty will be playing a couple of players who are comfortable on the clay courts immediately and that is going to be a challenge for Kvitova to show where she is. Her performances in Prague and Madrid were very good, but playing on the courts in Paris have proven to be tough for her.
If she can negotiate the first couple of Rounds, Kvitova will be a favourite to get through to a Fourth Round against either Anastasija Sevastova or Sloane Stephens when she will once again face a tough challenge.
The draw could have been kinder to Kvitova which would have made her an intriguing price, especially in a section where the highest Seed is Caroline Wozniacki who has had limited success on the surface. The Australian Open Champion is unlikely to win her second Slam here in Paris and the failures of the two leading players in the section could open the door for Daria Kasatkina.
Kasatkina is very comfortable on the clay courts, but the serve can be vulnerable and that makes it hard to really believe she can reach her first Slam Semi Final. The Russian has reached one Fourth Round at this level which makes it tough to back her with any confidence and I think the entire women's draw has enough question marks for the leading players to answer to make it hard to predict.
The women's draw looks very interesting on paper, but I am finding it very difficult to back a player with any semblance of confidence. Even picking section winners is tough, although I will be surprised if Simona Halep is not able to reach the Semi Final here and the Romanian is my main source of interest in the tournament.
Halep is odds against to win the First Quarter which looks a big price even if she has a couple of awkward looking matches to negotiate, but this is a player who knows how to get to the business end of big tournaments even if she has struggled to get over the line in those events.
The other Quarters of the draw are much closer and I am not convinced about the favourites in any of those. However finding alternatives is not easy with the doubts about so many of the top names and picking Halep to reach the Semi Final is the only selection from the women's event in Paris.
MY PICKS: Alexander Zverev to 'Reach the Final' @ 3.75 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Marin Cilic to Win Second Quarter @ 4.33 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Simona Halep to Win First Quarter @ 2.50 Paddy Power (2 Units)
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