French Open Tennis Day 3 Picks 2018 (May 29th)

The remainder of the First Round matches are going to be completed at the French Open on Tuesday and the Seeds have to be a little wary after seeing so many of their fellow professionals exiting the tournament over the last couple of days in both the men's and women's events.

Upsets in the Grand Slams always occur and the majority of the leading contenders have managed to work their way through to the Second Round.

Monday was unfortunately a more difficult day for the Tennis Picks with some of the bigger names struggling to dismiss challengers in ruthless fashion. There have been some missed opportunities, but it is too early to dismiss the selection choices as we move into the final set of First Round matches.

The majority of my Tennis Picks on Tuesday come from the men's draw after my research was concluded, but I don't care where the winners come from as long as they do come.

With the First Round concluding on Tuesday, I will place a link to my outright preview and picks for the last time here.


Bank Holiday Monday means time spent with the family and that also means I have to offer up a full analysis for around five Tennis Picks and the rest will be added to the 'MY PICKS' section below. With the long weekend over, I should have full analysis for the Tennis Picks going forward through the rest of the tournament, but I have done the same level of research for every Pick made.


Pablo Cuevas - 1.5 games v Aljaz Bedene: Both Pablo Cuevas and Aljaz Bedene would have hoped they could have been given the kind of draw that would see them pick up some big Ranking points from the second Grand Slam of the season. Both have impressed on the clay courts, but this looks like being a very close match with little between them.

In saying that I do favour Pablo Cuevas who might have been he slightly stronger of the two players, but tight matches means it is going to come down who plays the big points better on the day.

Cuevas and Bedene are both very effective servers on the clay courts which gives them the platform to put the wins together on this surface. It is Cuevas who has the narrow advantage on the serve having held 85% of games compared with Bedene's 77% and I do think that slight difference is going to prove the difference even if there is every chance both players win at least one set in this one.

Neither player has been as effective on the return of serve as they would have liked, although I do think the competition faced has something to do with that for Cuevas. When Cuevas has faced players Ranked outside the top 50 on the clay his service numbers have been steady, but he is winning a slightly higher percentage of return points compared with his overall numbers and that leads to more break opportunities and around a 30% break percentage.

Bedene has strong numbers against players Ranked outside the top 50 too, but his are slightly inferior to Cuevas' and I think the South American can win this in four sets which should give him every chance of covering this game handicap.

This is the first match between the two and it should be an intriguing watch, but I like Cuevas to just get out of a couple more jams on serve and find the breaks to win this match.


Marin Cilic - 9.5 games v James Duckworth: The really big numbers have not been very kind to me so far at the French Open with a number of players failing to cover after slow starts to matches. That could be a potential problem for Marin Cilic who gets his French Open campaign underway on Tuesday, but the match up looks a very good one for the former US Open Champion and I think he should be too good for James Duckworth.

Much of that is down to the fact that injuries and loss of form means Duckworth has not played on the clay courts since losing in the First Round at the French Open in 2016. In fact Duckworth has suffered so many injuries that he has played just four matches since January 2017 and the Australian has not taken to the court since the Australian Open back in January this year when losing in the Qualifiers.

The Duckworth career numbers on the clay courts have not been bad, but a lack of familiarity is one issue and the other is facing a top player like Cilic who is comfortable on the surface.

Over the last two seasons Cilic has really shown some strong form on the clay courts and his numbers have actually improved in 2018 compared with a strong 2017. However that is really in the total points percentage won, which is clearly a big indicator, and Cilic himself will feel that he is returning well enough to improve his 29% break percentage to get closer to the 37% percentage he held in 2017.

Playing at the level he does, Cilic doesn't really face too many players Ranked outside the top 100, but he is 6-0 in that spot on the clay courts in the last two seasons. His return numbers are very strong in those matches and I think he will put Duckworth under some real pressure once he gets to grips with the Australian's game after a set is played.

Cilic has dominated players Ranked outside the top 50 on the clay too and those numbers can be replicated in this match as he covers a big number.


Denis Shapovalov - 1.5 sets v John Millman: One of the players who is likely to make a big impact on the Tennis Tour in the years ahead is Denis Shapovalov who has a flashy game that will draw a lot of fans behind him.

Playing on the clay courts are still not something Shapovalov is at his most comfortable though and I think the young Canadian could be an overrated player in the French Open with the layers pricing him up on potential and form on the other surfaces.

In saying that I am going to back Shapovalov to win his First Round match against John Millman who has had a stellar season on the clay courts which have come as a surprise. The Australian had not won a clay court match in the last couple of seasons before somehow putting it all together and reaching the Final in Bucharest at the Tour level before winning a Challenger in preparation for the French Open.

The return of serve has been huge for Millman in his successes this season on the surface, but getting that kind of joy against Shapovalov will not come easy. Shapovalov has held serve 81% of the time in 2018 and he is a tough player to break down considering how well be backs up a big serve.

Where Shapovalov has had his issues is on the return of serve, but Millman does not have the biggest serve and his own numbers are around 10% down on Shapovalov when it comes to the hold of serve. There will be times when Millman is able to make a few big returns to give himself a chance of the upset, but I think the majority of the break points will be earned by Shapovalov even in what have to be tough conditions for the Canadian.

He may drop a set and may be someone to oppose in the Rounds ahead, but I like Shapovalov to progress in three or four sets in the First Round.


Steve Johnson - 1.5 sets v Adrian Mannarino: The clay courts have always been a problem for players from American to solve, and that has especially been the case in recent years on the men's side of the draw. There are a number of American players in the draw, but they have a similar style with the big serve backed up by powerful forehands which seem to be most effective on the faster surfaces.

However John Isner has shown that the extra time you get to wind up the groundstrokes on the clay courts can be beneficial for the game and Steve Johnson looks to have taken that on board with some successes on the clay even after moving to Europe.

Johnson won the title in Houston, but that clay court seems to play much quicker than most and it is the run to the Semi Final in Geneva that will have impressed a little more. He has been very good behind serve with the 85% hold percentage an increase from the 80% number of 2017.

The key for Johnson is always going to be how effective he is at returning on any given day and that remains a real weak part of his game. He may be aided in this First Round match by Adrian Mannarino who has struggled on the clay courts yet again in 2018 and whose serve remains very vulnerable on this surface with a sub 70% hold percentage in each of the last three seasons.

The Frenchman will have the home crowd support but he has not returned as well either which has caused problems for him during the clay court swing. When you are having issues holding serve and also retrieving breaks of serve then it is going to be a long day in the office for any player.

As long as Johnson remains engaged and keeps the rhythm going on the serve, I think the American wins this in three or four sets and moves through to the Second Round at the expense of the home player.


Tomas Berdych - 1.5 sets v Jeremy Chardy: There have been clear signs that Tomas Berdych is on the decline as a player for some time now and his best days are clearly behind him. It has been a tough twelve months for Berdych who is slipping down the World Rankings and he heads into the French Open still searching for his first clay win in 2018.

The numbers are significantly down for Berdych in 2018 compared to previous years with his hold percentage down to 72% compared with 80% a year ago, while the problems on the return that Berdych has experienced in the last couple of years have been highlighted during his three game losing run on the clay.

It should be noted that Berdych has not benefited from a kind draw in any of the tournaments he has entered though with losses to Kei Nishikori and Richard Gasquet before a narrow defeat to Denis Shapovalov. Berdych was the better player in the Shapovalov loss but a loss of form means the confidence has been affected.

I do think the Czech player can get back on track by at least winning his First Round match in Paris against home player Jeremy Chardy. The Frenchman has also seen his service numbers decline this year compared to those from previous seasons on the clay, although Chardy has been returning better than you may expect from him.

Those numbers have been much more to what you would expect when you see how Chardy has performed against top 50 Ranked opponents on the clay courts and I still think he has some improvement to make to win a match like this one. He is dangerous with a big serve that can produce some cheap points, but the overall numbers have taken a step back in each of the last four years when facing the better players on the Tour on the clay.

Both players will have to deal with the nerves that come with a loss of form, but I like Berdych to get the better of Chardy here. I have a feeling he may get it done in four sets, but I will back Berdych to win in either three or four sets as he looks for another strong run in the Grand Slam events.

MY PICKS: Pablo Cuevas - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 9.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Denis Shapovalov - 1.5 Sets @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Steve Johnson - 1.5 Sets @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Tomas Berdych - 1.5 Sets @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Jan-Lennard Struff Win 3-1 @ 4.00 William Hill (1 Unit)
Leonardo Mayer - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Sam Stosur - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Kiki Bertens - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

French Open Update: 8-8, + 0.80 Units (32 Units Staked, + 2.50% Yield)