French Open Tennis Day 4 Picks 2018 (May 30th)

The French Open is just behind the perfect schedule having seen a number of First Round matches forced to be played on Wednesday thanks to some poor weather affecting the timing of the tournament.

The weather is going to continue posing a problem in the days ahead, but the organisers have scheduled all the remaining First Round matches early on Wednesday with a full day of play expected to get through.

The Second Round gets underway on Wednesday with the bottom half of both the men's and women's tournaments taking the lead. I actually think the bottom half of the men's draw is much more fascinating than the top half, especially at this stage of the tournament, and there are at least two stand out matches that will be great to watch on Wednesday.


The Tennis Picks had a decent Tuesday, but it should have perhaps been even better if Maria Sharapova and Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova had held themselves together at key moments- Sharapova was leading 6-1, 4-3 with a break of serve before losing six games in a row and then winning the last six games to miss the cover by a single game. Pavlyuchenkova had a match point at 5-4 in the second set, but missed the opportunity to close the show and ended up winning in a tie-breaker which meant another match missing the cover by a single game.

That is frustrating to say the least, but generally it has been more positive than not.

One element that has bothered me is the number of big spreads I have taken on which have not come close to being successful- I won't completely rule those handicaps out, but I am keeping a keen eye on whether that improves in the next couple of days and will keep the results in mind before Wimbledon begins in July.

Below I have put out a full analysis of a number of the Tennis Picks from the Second Round and I have added the remaining Picks to the 'MY PICKS' section.


Federico Delbonis-Pablo Carreno Busta over 37.5 games: You would think that Pablo Carreno Busta would be comfortable with the match up with Federico Delbonis but it is the latter who has dominated the head to head. However their one sole meeting at the French Open was won by Carreno Busta in four sets two years ago and it goes to show where the two careers have gone in that time when you remember Carreno Busta was the underdog in that win.

This time he comes in as the strong favourite to progress to the Third Round and Carreno Busta has played some of his best tennis in the Grand Slams over the last twelve months. That is a big reason his World Ranking is as strong as it is, but Carreno Busta has not been at his very best during the clay court season.

Even in the First Round Carreno Busta dropped a set and his inconsistent play has seen him being forced into longer matches than he would like over the last couple of months. The serve is a vulnerability and that will also make Carreno Busta a player who can drop sets unexpectedly, while Federico Delbonis can definitely take advantage of any of those issues.

The lefty serve is awkward for players to deal with and Delbonis is very comfortable on the clay courts with some strong results in recent weeks.

He played well in the First Round and will certainly have his chances to break the Carreno Busta serve and this match has all the makings of one that could go four and potentially even five sets. I think both players will have their moments and picking a winner is not as straight-forward as the odds may suggest.

Instead of that, I am looking for Carreno Busta and Delbonis to combine for enough games to surpass the total games line.


Marco Cecchinato - 1.5 sets v Marco Trungelliti: The story of Marco Trungelliti being given a late call to return to the French Open as a Lucky Loser and having to undertake a nine hour journey from Barcelona back to Paris would have been memorable regardless of the result in the First Round. The fact that Trungelliti made it through past Bernard Tomic has only increased the 'fairytale' nature of the story and the Argentinian will feel this is a winnable match for him.

He takes on Italian Marco Cecchinato who had to come back from 0-2 down in sets to beat Marius Copil in the First Round. That will have given him confidence, but you don't want to be forced into those tough spots too often as they take away both mental and physical energy which is so important to players in Grand Slam events.

Last season these players would have been playing at a similar level on the Challenger Tour, but Cecchinato has been able to take his game onto the main Tour. Winning a maiden ATP title in Bucharest was an impressive performance from Cecchinato, while the numbers have remained strong on the clay courts.

Cecchinato has held at 80% on the clay courts and he is returning well enough to think he can challenge the Trungelliti serve. It also has to be noted that the latter has simply not played too many players of the quality of Cecchinato and Trungelliti has dropped to 0-6 when facing top 100 Ranked opponents over the last two seasons on the clay courts.

His win over Bernard Tomic did come against a player not at his best on the surface and one who has been out of form. This isn't the case for Trungelliti when he faces Cecchinato and I think the Italian is going to be a little too good over a couple of hours on the court.

I will be looking for Cecchinato to win this one in three or four sets as the emotions of the last few days get the better of Trungelliti who has also not been as effective against those players Ranked in the top 100.


Novak Djokovic - 8.5 games v Jaume Munar: It might not have been a perfect performance from Novak Djokovic in the First Round, but he was a dominant winner and perhaps a little unfortunate not to have won by a much larger margin than he did.

The serve wasn't working too badly, but Djokovic can struggle to get out of those games when his opponents do fashion break point chances and that has to be a concern the deeper he goes into the French Open. In general winning 69% of points behind serve should mean it is going to be difficult to break Djokovic, but that may be tested by youngster Jaume Munar.

However Munar is coming off a hugely emotional First Round win having come from 0-2 down in sets to beat David Ferrer who might have been a player that Munar looked up to growing up. While it is true Ferrer is on the slide in his career, it was still a huge achievement for Munar to win that match and he has to find a way to get himself ready to go in this one.

Faving the former World Number 1 should help Munar focus, but he will have to protect serve a lot better than he did against Ferrer. Novak Djokovic has been retuning well enough on the clay courts over the last couple of months and won 49% of the return points in the First Round which suggests he will put Munar under some pressure.

Generally Djokovic has dominated players Ranked outside the top 50 on the clay courts over the last couple of years. He has a far superior break percentage compared to his overall numbers when facing those opponents and I think Djokovic should be capable of making this a slightly more comfortable day in the office.

Munar has been returning effectively on the clay courts, but facing the very best players is not something he is yet used to and I think Djokovic can cover this number with a little more focus expected when the big points are played.


Fernando Verdasco v Guido Andreozzi: The layers have set this Second Round match as a pick 'em contest after both Fernando Verdasco and Guido Andreozzi had to come through five set matches in the First Round. I do think the layers have been influenced by the fact that Verdasco's match was much tougher having spent almost an hour longer on the court, but the Spaniard is vastly experienced and can recover to win this match.

The price could also be influenced by what has been an under-par clay court season for Verdasco who has taken a couple of really poor losses in that time. The overall numbers have not been too bad, but Verdasco is much more erratic these days than when he hit his peak a number of years ago.

You could see that in his performance in the First Round as he dominated a couple of sets, but struggled behind the serve to really influence matters in the other three sets. Verdasco did hold himself together for long enough to win the match though and I think he will be feeling good about himself for managing to do that in the fifth set after dropping a fourth set breaker.

Guido Andreozzi has to show he can handle the emotion of a five set win and his limited experiences at this level have to be taken into consideration. Andreozzi spends the majority of his time on the Challenger circuit and while he builds up his wins at that level, he is just 3-3 in main Tour matches on the clay in his career.

You have to respect the way Andreozzi has been playing on the clay courts this season and he has decent serve and return numbers which make him dangerous. However he has yet to show he can do that consistently at the same level whenever he has moved up to the main ATP level and I think it is a tough match up for him against an enigmatic player like Verdasco.

I won't be surprised if this is a match that goes the distance with the way Verdasco seems to be involved in rollercoaster matches of late, but I think the veteran Spaniard gets the better of Andreozzi and I will back him to win this match.


Grigor Dimitrov - 7.5 games v Jared Donaldson: I was very tempted to oppose Grigor Dimitrov in the First Round when it looked like he was supposed to be facing Victor Troicki, but that opportunity may come later in this tournament. There is no doubt that Dimitrov is going to be overrated on the clay courts because of the general improvement of his play which has yet to have the same increase in successes on this surface as it has on others.

However that opportunity should not be here in the Second Round as Dimitrov faces American Jared Donaldson who was a fortunate winner in the First Round against Nicolas Jarry.

The latter is going to be kicking himself for not taking the chances he had to knock off Donaldson who made the use of almost all the break points that came his way. However Donaldson continued to struggle with the consistency on the return of serve and I think that is going to aid Dimitrov who does have some strong numbers when serving on the clay against players outside of the top 20 of the World Rankings.

One of the major reasons Dimitrov has not been able to put a strong run of wins together on the clay courts is that he has not returned as well as he should have on the surface. He was good in the First Round against an overmatched opponent and I think Dimitrov will have success against Donaldson who had been winning less than 60% of his service points on this surface over the last couple of months.

Donaldson did serve much better against Jarry, but Dimitrov is a better returner than the South American and I think he will be able to break down the American's game. As long as Dimitrov maintains the focus I would think he is good enough to win and win well on the day.

I expect his opponent will have set or a set and a half being very competitive, but I think Dimitrov will work his way to at least one set where he wins with a double break of serve. That should set him on his way to a win and a cover on Wednesday despite the big number in front of him.

MY PICKS: Federico Delbonis-Pablo Carreno Busta Over 37.5 Games @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)
Marco Cecchinato - 1.5 Sets @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic - 8.5 Games @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov - 7.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori  - 6.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
David Goffin - 7.5 Games @ 1.91 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Stefanos Tsitsipas + 6.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Anett Kontaveit - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Sloane Stephens - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

French Open Update: 13-13, + 0.32 Units (52 Units Staked, + 1% Yield)