Rome Masters Tennis Picks 2018 (May 16th)

Tuesday did turn out to be a wet day in Rome, but there was a break in the weather for long enough to complete almost every match that had been on the schedule.

For the Tennis Picks it was a mixed day with a couple of winners and a couple of losers on the day and that was about right when you broke down how those matches went.

Wednesday and Thursday both look like poor days for tennis, but there should be enough breaks in the rain to allow the matches to take to the court. There are a number of matches scheduled as the remainder of the Second Round in both the ATP and WTA events being played are all set to be completed on Wednesday.


Kei Nishikori - 1.5 games v Grigor Dimitrov: Injury has seen Kei Nishikori drop down the World Rankings and that has meant he has been involved in plenty of big matches early in tournaments since he returned to the main Tour. It looks to be no different in Rome this week after Nishikori saw off Feliciano Lopez to earn his spot in the Second Round where he has been paired with Grigor Dimitrov.

The clay courts have been a surface on which Nishikori has played some very strong tennis in his career and nothing much has changed in that regards. He has reached the Final in Monte Carlo last month and the First Round loss to Novak Djokovic in Madrid was a close match that could have easily gone Nishikori's way.

He certainly has the stronger pedigree on the clay courts than Grigor Dimitrov and I think Nishikori is capable of getting the better of this good looking Second Round match.

Dimitrov has not had the best record on the clay courts in the last three seasons and he is just 5-3 on the surface this time around. The serve remains a solid weapon for Dimitrov but he has not been able to create the breaks of serve that a player of his quality should and I think Nishikori is the stronger player.

The Nishikori serve can be a little vulnerable as he has to work hard to protect it, but he has been doing that well enough in 2018. One area he will be looking to show improvement is when it comes to the break of serve despite Nishikori continuing to have plenty of success on the return of serve.

This may go three sets, but I think Nishikori is going to win this match and I will back him to get past Dimitrov on a surface the former prefers.


Pablo Carreno Busta - 3.5 games v Steve Johnson: One of the surprising issues on the clay courts in 2018 is the struggles Pablo Carreno Busta has had despite being very comfortable on the surface. He has just been lacking consistency which has prevented Carreno Busta having any really strong runs, but a solid win over Jared Donaldson in the First Round should give him some confidence.

The problem for Carreno Busta backers is that he still needed three sets to get the job done despite looking comfortably the stronger player on the day against Donaldson. Losing sets when looking the better player has been a problem for the Spaniard and he won't want to give Steve Johnson too much encouragement.

The American won the title in Houston, although the clay courts in that tournament are significantly different to those played in European tournaments. However any title win will make a player feel good about themselves and Johnson won his first European clay court match when beating Stan Wawrinka in the First Round.

Johnson had a very strong record on the clay courts last season but generally he has struggled with his return on the surface which isn't a big surprise for a player that doesn't play on the clay too often. The serve has been very important for Johnson this season in his seven clay court matches and it has produced much stronger numbers than usual which has covered the problems on the return that continue to blight the Johnson game.

Someone like Carreno Busta should be able to challenge Johnson's serve more than most, and I think that could give him the edge in this Second Round match. The Spaniard has to be careful he doesn't allow Johnson to get into a rhythm early, but the conditions should suit Carreno Busta significantly more than Johnson and I think he is able to produce a good looking win here.


Novak Djokovic - 5.5 games v Nikoloz Basilashvili: Coming back from injury and the emotion of completing the dreams you've had since being a child is a tough road for any athlete to tread. For Novak Djokovic it has felt the last couple of years have been difficult to negotiate since winning the French Open in 2016 when he was very much the man to beat at the top of men's tennis.

An injury hit 2017 saw Djokovic miss half the season and he has admitted he returned to the Tour a little too early in 2018 as he missed playing competitive tennis. It is perhaps not a big surprise the former World Number 1 feels that way having produced a 7-6 record so far in 2018 but there have been some positive signs during the clay court swing which suggests Djokovic is moving in a positive direction.

One of the major question marks for Djokovic was whether the arm injury that hindered him in 2017 was going to have a negative impact on his serve, but that has not really been the case. There has been a slight improvement in the service points being won since moving onto the clay courts compared with his overall 2018 numbers and the bigger test for Djokovic is getting a little more success on the return of serve.

The return has been a massive part of Djokovic's success through his career but he is not breaking as frequently as when the Serb was at his best. However I don't think Djokovic is that far from getting back into some rhythm on the break of serve and I think the match up with Nikoloz Bashilashvili will work for him.

Basilashvili is a talented player but there is no doubt that his serve is vulnerable the better the quality of opponent he faces and I think holding is going to be a problem for him in this Second Round match. That is highlighted by the decline in the hold percentage when you look at Basilashvili's matches against top 50 Ranked players and then top 20 Ranked players on the clay courts over the last four seasons.

I wouldn't be surprised if Basilashvili has some success on the return himself, but ultimately this is the kind of match Djokovic should be comfortable in. It is a big number of games to cover, but Djokovic is more than capable of doing that by completing one set with a couple of breaks of serve more than Basilashvili.


Caroline Garcia - 4.5 games v Timea Babos: I am taking a couple of the ladies in action on Wednesday to cover big numbers in wins and the first of those is Caroline Garcia who has had a strong clay court season so far. I expect she will want another strong week to give her plenty of momentum to take into her home Grand Slam and Garcia certainly is playing well enough to win this match.

Timea Babos will be feeling good about herself after beating home favourite Sara Errani in the First Round, but that is a rare success for Babos on the clay courts.

The win over Errani is the first success Babos has had on the clay courts in 2018 and she has finished with a losing record in two of the last three seasons. Last season Babos finished up with a 1-5 record on the clay courts and you can't say she has been too unlucky as her second serve has been very attackable for opponents.

Babos' numbers take a significant hit when you see how she has played against top 50 Ranked opponents on the clay courts and her return has proven to be ineffective in those matches. In the Second Round she plays a strong server in Garcia and I think that can give the latter the foundation from which she can go on the attack in the return of serve.

I do think Garcia is going to want to improve on her own return of serve, but the numbers are stronger when she plays those opponents outside of the top 20 in the World Rankings and I think that shows up here. As the superior clay court player I think Garcia wins this match and can cover what is a big number of games.


Maria Sharapova - 4.5 games v Dominika Cibulkova: After seeing Maria Sharapova miss the cover for me on Tuesday you may think I would want to steer away from the former World Number 1. However I think she had every chance of covering in her win over Ashleigh Barty and this match may be a little more up her street.

There is no doubting the fight and heart Dominika Cibulkova brings to the court, but injury and a loss of form means she is only 9-8 on the Tour in 2018. She won her first match since February when beating Francesca Schiavone in the First Round and Cibulkova has not had a lot of success on the clay courts since April 2017.

The numbers have not been too bad overall, but they do take a dent when you see how Cibulkova has done against the better players on the Tour.

Her aggressive style should suit Maria Sharapova a little more than Ashleigh Barty who managed to irritate the Russian with the backhand slices which extracted errors from Sharapova's game. However it was another win for Sharapova who will feel better about her game all around over the last couple of weeks and she is playing much better at the moment than a few weeks ago.

Sharapova is a comfortable clay court player and her superior serve should give her a chance to run through a few more service games than Cibulkova which is key to having a chance to cover this number of games. The three wins last week all came by margins of five games or more and Sharapova may have gotten to that again with a little more luck at key times in the First Round here.

Cibulkova won't roll over for any opponent, but I think Sharapova will be a little too good all around and she can cover this number.

MY PICKS: Kei Nishikori - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Pablo Carreno Busta - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Caroline Garcia - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Maria Sharapova - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Rome Masters Update: 6-4, + 3.16 Units (20 Units Staked, + 15.80% Yield)