French Open Tennis Day 2 Picks 2018 (May 28th)

The majority of the matches scheduled for Sunday managed to get through on Day 1 at the French Open despite some sketchy weather reports in Paris. The first few days of the tournament do look like they will be affected by the weather, but the split of the First Round across three days should ensure the tournament remains on track.

Sunday looked to have started serenely with the top names all managing to get through without any scares, but then we have Venus Williams and Jelena Ostapenko both beaten in the First Round.

Williams' defeat is perhaps less of a surprise considering she has not had a lot of clay court success, but Ostapenko going out in the First Round as the defending Champion was a real upset and opens up the Third Quarter of the women's draw.

Later on David Goffin had to dig deep to come from 0-2 down in sets to beat Robin Haase in five sets- while it is always a positive to get through in the Grand Slams, Goffin may feel he should not have had to come from such a deficit having made some key mistakes at critical times in the first two sets.


On Monday there are a huge amount of First Round matches scheduled with some of the leading contenders all set to get their Grand Slam underway. With more matches come more picks after a winning start to the tournament on Sunday thanks to Goffin's fightback against Haase.

A little more consistency with the Picks is the demand I have for myself though and those from Monday can be found below. I am putting out my analysis for the men's First Round matches to be played and I will add the women's matches to the 'MY PICKS' section for this day.

You can also read my outright preview and picks from the tournament here.


Guillermo Garcia-Lopez v Stan Wawrinka: In a normal situation Stan Wawrinka would be going into this First Round match as a big favourite, but injury has held him back over the last several months and there are signs he has not fully recovered. At least Wawrinka has been able to take his place in the main draw of the last couple of events, but a 1-2 record on the clay courts aren't great reading for him.

Being back at the French Open may be a good time to turn things around for Wawrinka who has reached the latter stages of this tournament a number of times including the Final in 2017. As a former winner he knows how to get it done at the French Open, but the last time he was beaten in the First Round here happened to be at the hands of Guillermo Garcia-Lopez who opposes him on Monday.

There are clear signs that Garcia-Lopez' game is on the decline which has to be considered, but he played well enough to push Dominic Thiem all the way in Lyon last week. That should have given the Spaniard confidence even if he has struggled against the very best players throughout his career on the clay courts.

Wawrinka has been going through some timing issues which is an issue for his style when coming off a long lay off and I do think it will be tough for him here. Garcia-Lopez has been serving well enough to put the pressure on Wawrinka who has struggled with his return in his three matches on the clay courts this season.

Perhaps the best of five set format will give Wawrinka a chance to work his way into this match, but I think it might come a little too soon for him. While Garcia-Lopez is not exactly one of the top clay courters in the world, he plays solid enough tennis to give himself a chance of upsetting Wawrinka at Roland Garros in the First Round for the second time in his career.

The Spaniard as the underdog has to be worth chancing in this one.


Stefanos Tsitsipas - 7.5 games v Carlos Taberner: This looks a really big mismatch as far as I can tell, although you have to take down some of the enthusiasm when backing a young player in a Grand Slam like I am going to do with Stefanos Tsitsipas. He doesn't have the same kind of experience as Alexander Zverev, but we have seen how the young German has had his issues in making a breakthrough at the Slam level and Tsitsipas is not near the level Zverev has produced all year around.

Even with that in mind, I think Tsitsipas has produced some high quality tennis on the clay courts in 2018 and he is clearly one to take note of for the future on this surface. That level is far above what Carlos Taberner has produced, although you have to respect the Spaniard for coming through three Qualifying Rounds to make the main draw of a Grand Slam for the first time in his career.

That is important for me as I think there will be just as many nerves in the Taberner game as there is in the Tsitsipas game- while Taberner is not used to playing at this level, Tsitsipas is dealing with the new expectation around him which can play on a young players mind.

The Tsitsipas raw numbers are very encouraging though with a big serve being backed up by some strong returning and Taberner will have to have a career best performance by a huge margin to remain competitive. His serve is likely to be put under pressure by Tsitsipas and the latter has also managed himself well in matches against those players Ranked outside the top 100 with a solid 3-0 record against them on this surface in 2018.

Taberner is 0-3 when facing top 100 opponents in his career and I expect that to drop to 0-4 at the end of Monday. While he can make a set competitive, I think Tsitsipas' pressure will see Taberner wear down here over the course of a couple of hours and the 'Next Gen' star can work his way to a convincing win.

While a big number, Tsitsipas should have every chance of covering in the First Round thanks to a superior all around game than Taberner as long as he holds the nerves together.


Novak Djokovic - 8.5 games v Rogerio Dutra Silva: The general feeling is that Novak Djokovic is still some way short of his best tennis, but there are definite signs he is getting back to his very best which were on display in the clay court season. While it would be a stunning win if he takes the title home in Paris, I do think Djokovic could be a real threat at the US Open later this season if he manages his improvement as he has been.

It is correct to assert that Djokovic has not reached the level that he was producing when he was the World Number 1 or when he won his French Open title, but the improvements being made are clear to see.

Djokovic was holding at 80% during the clay court swing and he is breaking at 31% which are down on his stellar 2015 numbers, but still very good compared to so many on the Tour. The display in losing to Rafael Nadal in Rome would have increased the optimism around Djokovic and those kinds of numbers should be good enough to beat Qualifier Rogerio Dutra Silva.

All credit to the Brazilian for making his way back into the main draw, but he hasn't had much success at Grand Slam level and his general numbers are influenced by a lot of success against players not of the quality that Djokovic will bring. Dutra Silva has been a challenge for the top 50 Ranked players he has faced this season by taking a set each time, but he is 0-3 in those matches and both his hold and break percentages drop significantly compared to the rest of his clay court numbers.

The Brazilian has a poor record against top 20 Ranked players on the clay, and I think it is a big ask for him to match last season by taking a set off a top player like Milos Raonic on the clay courts. Novak Djokovic is a much different challenge than Raonic and the strong wins he has put together on the clay courts in 2018 against the lesser lights highlights the challenge in front of Dutra Silva.

Once Djokovic gets into a rhythm, I expect a strong win to show up on the scoreboard in this match.


Dusan Lajovic - 4.5 games v Jiri Vesely: A first look at the number being set for the handicap of this match does make for interesting reading, but I think the match is on the racquet of Dusan Lajovic. He has been in very good form on the clay courts in 2018 and comes into this with real confidence, although Jiri Vesely has shown he is very adept at playing on this surface himself.

The problem for Vesely has been injuries and a loss of form have seen him slip down to playing Challenger events at the same time Lajovic has found a successful formula for playing on the main Tour. While Vesely would have been the favourite even two years ago, the layers have this right by flipping those odds.

Generally the numbers have been strong from Vesely on the clay courts in 2018 despite his 7-6 record which suggests there are still some confidence issues to overcome. Also it can't be forgotten that I've stated the majority of his time has been spent off the main Tour and Vesely is now 0-4 on the clay courts against top 100 Ranked players this season.

Losing to a player Ranked almost down at 500 in the World in the Heilbronn Challenger won't have given Vesely a lot to believe in and now he faces Lajovic coming in off another strong week on the Tour. There is room for improvement on the return of serve, but Lajovic's 83% holding percentage on the clay courts could set him up to put Vesely under some real pressure in this First Round match.

Lajovic has also been more successful when being drawn to players Ranked outside the top 50 when his hold percentage improves to 86% and his break percentage improves to over 36% in producing an 11-2 record.

It is Vesely who won their two previous matches, but both came back in 2013 and I think an improved Lajovic can get the better of the Czech player in three or four sets which will give him the chance to cover this handicap.


Rafael Nadal - 11.5 games v Simone Bolelli: This is a huge number for any professional tennis player to clear against another but just goes to show how strongly the layers feel Rafael Nadal is playing on the clay courts. Facing a competent clay courter like Simone Bolelli doesn't matter for the layers, and I tend to agree with them that the World Number 1 can produce a big performance to send out a marker to the rest of the field.

His Italian opponent is coming in as a Lucky Loser, although I am not sure how lucky Bolelli feels right now with the prospect of facing Nadal. This isn't the first time these players have met at Roland Garros with Nadal destroying Bolelli for the loss of five games a few years ago.

Something similar may happen if Bolelli struggles as he did in his final Qualifier when beaten 6-0, 6-2 by Santiago Giraldo who is nowhere near the level Nadal produces on this surface. While Bolelli's general clay court numbers will be strong, he is just 3-7 against top 100 Ranked opponents on this surface over the last three years and he is going to be heavily reliant on the serve working to full power to have any chance in this one.

Realistically Bolelli isn't going to beat Nadal but the question is whether he can make this competitive enough to take advantage of the huge start he is getting. Rafael Nadal has been dominating opponents on the clay in 2018, but his service numbers are ever so slightly down on 2017 which could make it a tougher prospect of covering a huge number like he was used to doing in Paris last year on the way to a tenth French Open title.

He did cover this number in four of his six completed matches in Paris last season and Bolelli has to be a little fearful of a player who has seen his break percentage improve all the way up to 48% in 2017. Bolelli might be 0-6 against top 5 Ranked players in Grand Slam matches and half of those defeats have come by margins of eleven or more games.

Nadal in the current form is capable of handing out a heavy loss to anyone and I think he can cover this mark at odds against.

MY PICKS: Guillermo Garcia-Lopez @ 2.30 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Stefanos Tsitsipas - 7.5 Games @ 2.00 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic - 8.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Dusan Lajovic - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 11.5 Games @ 2.05 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Naomi Osaka - 5.5 Games @ 2.20 Coral (2 Units)
Su-Wei Hsieh @ 2.30 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Anastsija Sevastova - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Coco Vandeweghe - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Karolina Pliskova - 6.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Maria Sharapova - 6.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

French Open Update: 4-3, + 2.16 Units (14 Units Staked, + 15.43% Yield)