Madrid Masters Tennis Picks 2018 (May 9th)

I don't really know what to think about a day where I've had one losing player produce 20 break points and only convert one of those in what should have been a very comfortable win.

At one point I even tweeted out that two players had combined to created 30 break points but had only managed to convert 3 of those which made it feel like it was going to be a tough day in the office.

That proved to be the case in a losing day which should really have been a winning one.

Hopefully that is at low as it goes for this week at the Madrid Masters, but I have to maintain faith in the system which would have produced a few more winners on Tuesday if players took the opportunities that were in front of them.


Philipp Kohlschreiber v Roberto Bautista Agut: These two players met a few days ago at the ATP Munich event and it was Philipp Kohlschreiber who got the better of Roberto Bautista Agut that day in a deserved win. This time it will be Bautista Agut who will be given the strong support from the home crowd, but that may not make a difference in the outcome of the match.

Unlike many of his compatriots, it does feel that Bautista Agut is perhaps better on the faster surfaces rather than the clay courts. He can still be pretty effective on this surface and the conditions in Madrid may suit him a lot more, but the numbers show a player who can be undone in these kind of matches where his opponent can put significant pressure on him.

Kohlschreiber's last few weeks on the clay suggest he is capable of exerting that pressure and that is why I like his chances of winning this match.

The veteran has been serving really well on the clay and that gives him a solid base from which he can look to put pressure on his opponents on their own service games. Kohlschreiber is not as consistent breaking serve as he would want to be, but he wins enough return points to have chances to get to break points.

This should be an interesting match with both players having opportunities to get on the front foot, but I like Kohlschreiber's performances on the clay court to just edge out Bautista Agut in this pick 'em match.


Pablo Cuevas - 2.5 games v Albert Ramos-Vinolas: It always feels like Pablo Cuevas has some of the stronger clay court numbers out there, but he doesn't always produce his best tennis in the lead up to the French Open. He is looking for some momentum in Madrid which will give Cuevas confidence to take into the big events to come this month and he can get the better of Albert Ramos-Vinolas.

The Spaniard will receive plenty of support from the locals which will aid him, but Ramos-Vinolas has struggled in 2018 after having a couple of strong years on the clay courts.

This year Ramos-Vinolas has seen his numbers shown signs of decline both behind the serve and the return and that has meant more losses than he is used to on this surface at this time of the year.

To be fair to Ramos-Vinolas, the serve is still producing enough to think it can give him a chance in this match against a limited returner like Cuevas. However I think Cuevas has been serving well enough to believe in himself against an opponent he has beaten in six of their previous seven professional matches.

Much of this match is going to come down to how well Cuevas is able to return, but he looked in good shape in his dominant win over Jack Sock on Tuesday and I think he is able to win this match and cover the number of games being asked of him.


Fernando Verdasco - 1.5 games v Leonardo Mayer: One of the criticisms of Fernando Verdasco at this stage of his career is that he does not make as much use of the pressurised moments to get himself into a position to break serve. The veteran makes too many mistakes when it comes to 30-30 in games which means he is not breaking as much on the clay courts as he was twelve months ago.

Even then Verdasco has some solid wins because he is able to really dictate behind his serve and do just enough with the return of serve.

Verdasco will need to serve up to his high standards if he is going to get through this match against Leonardo Mayer and make it a fifth straight win over him in the professional ranks. The Leonardo Mayer serve has proven to be tough to break on the clay courts and that has protected his poor return numbers and helped him win matches he perhaps should not have done.

This does feel like a match that will be dominated by the serve, particularly in the conditions in Madrid which means this is one of the faster clay courts on the Tour. That could mean small errors are punished by the loss of sets, but it is Verdasco who looks to be serving the better of the two players and he can beat Mayer again on this surface in 2018.

We could need three sets to decide which player moves onto the Third Round on Thursday, but I think Verdasco is playing the slightly better tennis at the moment and he can achieve that aim.

MY PICKS: Philipp Kohlschreiber @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Pablo Cuevas - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Madrid Masters Update: 4-5, - 3.04 Units (18 Units Staked, - 16.89% Yield)