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Thursday 24 May 2018

Tennis Picks 2018 (May 25th)

The final week before a Grand Slam begins is a tough time to be making daily picks from the Tennis Tour and it is no surprise I have only had three picks all week despite four tournaments being played.

The last two have both come back as winners but I didn't see anything I liked to follow those up from Wednesday and had a day away on Thursday.

Instead I had a quick look through the French Open draw which was made on Thursday evening- the tournament begins on Sunday, the only Slam to begin on a Sunday, and I will have my break down of the draw and any outright picks ready to go on the site on Saturday.

Day 1 Picks will also be out on Saturday evening with the First Round matches scheduled for that day and I am looking forward to two good weeks in Paris. I wish I was going this year and it is now five years since I visited the French Open which is a remarkably long time considering how close I actually live to the event.

The French Open remains one of my favourite tournaments though and I can't wait for the start this weekend.

Before that I have some Tennis Picks from the Semi Final matches in Geneva and Strasbourg which can be read below.


Fabio Fognini - 3.5 games v Peter Gojowczyk: This is a rematch between these two players from the Rome Masters last week where Fabio Fognini was able to get the better of Peter Gojowczyk in straight sets.

It was a deserved win for Fognini who was a little fortunate to come through his Quarter Final match here in Geneva although he is arguably the favourite to win the title now Stan Wawrinka is out of the draw.

Fognini has not been as strong as previous years on the clay courts, but his return has been in good shape and he should have success against Gojowczyk like he enjoyed in Rome last week.

On the other hand Gojowczyk has room for improvement on his own return of serve despite putting three solid wins together here in Geneva. His return of serve could be more effective and I think that is going to be a difference maker between these two players on Friday with Fognini more likely to produce the break points and subsequently take those opportunities when they come his way.

It could be a tight match if Fognini is as erratic as he can be, but I think he may win in a similar fashion to Rome when he got the better of Gojowczyk with a break more in each set of a straight sets win.


Steve Johnson v Marton Fucsovics: Both of these players deserve a lot of credit for making it through to a Semi Final on the clay courts at Tour level, but it does look like Steve Johnson is playing the better tennis of the two.

Marton Fucsovics has had the best win this week when he was able to beat Stan Wawrinka, although Johnson managed to beat the Swiss player last week on this surface. Much of those wins are down to Wawrinka's recent return to the Tour, but Johnson has added solid looking wins over the likes of Guido Pella to add to his confidence on the clay.

His opponent has to be respected with the wins he has produced this week to reach the Semi Final but the numbers from the American have been very good. He has been serving at a high level on the clay and that had made Johnson tough to break, while he is doing enough on the return to get into a position to win matches.

A strong serve means opponents perhaps feel the pressure of their own serve against Johnson and I think Fucsovics will feel that too. His numbers behind the serve are simply not at the same level as Johnson and I like the latter in what is a pick 'em match.


Dominika Cibulkova v Mihaela Buzarnescu: After some injury issues, Dominika Cibulkova looks to be rounding into strong form and she has played really well in Strasbourg so far this week.

The serving has been very effective and Cibulkova has always been an aggressive returner who can enjoy playing on the clay courts. 2017 was a tough season for her on this surface, but 2018 has looked a lot better over the last couple of weeks as Cibulkova has restored some confidence with a number of wins in that time.

It will be a test of that confidence when Cibulkova takes on Mihaela Buzarnescu who has had a stunning rise up the World Rankings over the last nine months. She was dominant on the clay courts at the level below the main WTA Tour and Buzarnescu has taken that onto the main Tour with a run to the Final in Prague.

Her three wins this week have been very impressive, but Buzarnescu had lost three matches in a row on the clay before the tournament in Strasbourg began.

Both players do have similar numbers which is why the layers have this down as a pick 'em match and I think it is going to be a very close one. However I think Cibulkova has the more impressive wins this week and she is playing at a very good level at the moment which may be tough for Buzarnescu to match over the course of a couple of hours.


Ashleigh Barty - 3.5 games v Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova: Ashleigh Barty has been a real success since returning to professional tennis and she has looked very comfortable on the clay courts over the last couple of months. Not many players will want to run into Barty at the French Open after close losses to Caroline Wozniacki and Maria Sharapova and those can be reversed in the form she has displayed.

Barty has really leant on her serve which is an underrated shot and she has a very strong return which is going to put some pressure on Anastasia Pavlychenkova when they meet in the Semi Final on Friday.

The Russian has been in good form this week herself, but the underlying numbers are not nearly as strong as the ones Barty has put on the board.

Pavlyuchenkova has a very good serve of her own which can produce plenty of cheap points, but her second serve is attackable. She also can struggle with her movement and I think Barty is the better defender of the two players which can be a key factor on the clay courts.

There is also a significant difference in the way the two players have returned and the success they have had on that side of the court. Barty looks to have a real edge in that department and I think the Australian will beat Pavlyuchenkova and be able to cover a big number in this second Semi Final in Strasbourg.

MY PICKS: Fabio Fognini - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Steve Johnson @ 1.83 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Dominika Cibulkova @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Ashleigh Barty - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 2-1, + 1.70 Units (6 Units Staked, + 28.33% Yield)

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