Weekend Football Picks 2013 (November 2-3)

It was a much better October for the picks and rectified the bad start to the season for the most part, although I am looking to ride that momentum into another busy month of football coming up this month.


Newcastle United v Chelsea Pick: There is a lot of pressure on Alan Pardew to produce the results that will save his job, but it has begun to seem inevitable that he will be moved out sooner rather than later. The papers have even linked Pardew with a move to become manager of Crystal Palace which should indicate how insecure his job has become at St James' Park.

And it isn't like he is facing a very winnable game this weekend as he takes on the form team in the English top flight with Chelsea having won 8 of their last 9 games in all competitions.

However, the odds on the away win look remarkably short considering the poor away record that Chelsea have coming into the game and instead I will look for the away side's chances of scoring goals.

Newcastle United have conceded plenty of goals in recent weeks and both Hull City and Liverpool have scored twice at this ground in the last couple of Premier League home games. Chelsea themselves have scored at least 2 goals in each of their last 4 away games in all competitions and have hit that target in 4 of their last 5 trips to this part of the North East.

Ladbrokes offer 2.10 that Chelsea hit 2 or 3 goals here and that looks a real player unless Newcastle have completely given up on their manager and collapse which they can sometimes be guilty of.


Fulham v Manchester United Pick: Neither one of these teams has been in great form in the first couple of months of the new season, but I don't think Manchester United look a trustworthy price at short odds on.

Even against a team like Fulham, you have to think the home side are going to have chances as United have looked vulnerable at the back and I wouldn't be able to say with real confidence of what the result will be in this game.

A defeat for United would put them in an extremely difficult position to win the Premier League, especially with a tough month of fixtures ahead of them. The 4-0 win over Norwich City and scoring 3 against Stoke may be an indication of United beginning to turn a corner, but they need to show more before I could back them at odds like we see.

Fulham themselves have been crushed by Arsenal at home and also were surprisingly beaten by Cardiff City, but they didn't play badly in the former game and certainly have strikers that will pose problems.

Defensively they have struggled though and I think there have been signs that United are going to get back on the goal-scoring front. Manchester United could take advantage and become the latest team to score at least 2 goals here and I think backing the away side to score 2-3 goals here at odds against looks a decent price.


Manchester City v Norwich City Pick: Manchester City have been playing very well at the Etihad Stadium and also earning the positive results those performances deserve and I expect they will be too strong for Norwich City in this one.

The problem for Norwich is that they concede too many goals and they will be under constant pressure by a Manchester City side that plays attacking football and looks to score goals.

City have scored plenty of goals at home, including 4 against Newcastle United and Manchester United, and it is hard to see Norwich holding out in this one. Unfortunately we will need to see a three goal win for the home side if you want a full payout on the Asian Handicap, but I still can't ignore how strong Manchester City have been at home this season.

With the likes of Sergio Aguero, Alvaro Negredo, Edin Dzeko, David Silva, Samir Nasri and Yaya Toure getting forward, I don't see how Norwich can contain the home side and I will back Manchester City to clear the Asian Handicap.


West Brom v Crystal Palace Pick: There are a couple of teams at the bottom of the Premier League that are in real danger of being cut off and Crystal Palace are one of those sides.

After seeing them lose 1-4 to Fulham at Selhurst Park, I had to seriously question where Crystal Palace were going to pick up the 37 points they still need to give themselves a chance of survival. They performed much better against Arsenal, but fell to another defeat and I am not sure they have the character to get out of the situation they find themselves.

It was going to be a big ask for Palace to survive in the Premier League without Wilfried Zaha and Glenn Murray, but they have also conceded too many goals and have not been as competitive as they would have wanted.

West Brom are coming in off a heavy defeat, but they thumped Sunderland in their only home win in the Premier League and Steve Clarke will have circled this game as a must-win one for his team.

The Baggies have goals in the side and I believe they will become the latest side to beat Palace by at least a couple of goals and will back them on the Asian Handicap to do so.


Arsenal v Liverpool Pick: Both of these sides have plenty of attacking verve about them, but both have also looked pretty vulnerable at the back which should make this an exciting afternoon game to watch.

Neither manager really strikes me as one that would curb their sides attacking instincts either and I expect both Arsene Wenger and Brendan Rodgers to keep the shape that has sparked a very good start to the season for Arsenal and Liverpool respectively.

There are goals in both side with the likes of Mesut Ozil, Aaron Ramsey, Daniel Sturridge and Luis Suarez all capable of creating and scoring goals.

I can't really pick a winner as there are good reasons as to why you would pick either side, although I am concerned with the amount of draws that they seem to play out with the 1-1 scoreline being particularly prevalent.

However, I think this game would more likely end up similar to last season with both scoring twice and I like the chances of the over 3.5 goals in this one, although the layers are shortening the price all the time. An early goal would be well received, for either team, to ensure the game does become an expansive one as a tight game may see the manager's accept a draw and not ask their teams to push on.


Rayo Vallecano v Real Madrid Pick: Real Madrid are a much more confident side at home than they are away from home and there is also the fact that this is a local derby to suggest it would likely be closer than initially anticipated.

However, Rayo Vallecano have conceded a lot of goals this season and are now facing a side that banged in 7 in their most recent game. Vallecano have been beaten comfortably by Barcelona and Real Valladolid here this season and they may struggle to contain a Real Madrid team with as many goals as they have in the side.

The away side can concentrate fully on the fixture despite a Champions League game next on deck as they have that Group firmly in control after three games and I think they will score at least 3 goals here. That should be enough for Real Madrid to secure a win by at least a couple of goals and I will back them on the Asian Handicap to do that.


Sevilla v Celta Vigo Pick: I would be surprised if we don't see goals in this games as both have scored and conceded with alarming regularity this season but I do think Sevilla's home form will prove to be the difference in the game.

You have to respect Celta Vigo for the result they attained at Malaga last weekend, but that has been the one shining light in a lot of dark results of late and Sevilla has regularly been one of the toughest away grounds to visit.

It is the home form that has kept Sevilla in a relatively safe position in the League table, and you have to believe they will be too good again having won 3 in a row at home against Celta Vigo.

Sevilla have conceded in all but one of their home games this season and Celta Vigo have scored in all but one of their away games... With the belief that Sevilla will win, backing them to do so in a game where both teams score looks a big price.

MY PICKS: Chelsea Goal Crazy: 2-3 Goals @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Manchester United Goal Crazy: 2-3 Goals @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Manchester City - 1.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Pinnacle (4 Units)
West Brom - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Arsenal-Liverpool Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.80 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
Real Madrid - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Both Teams to Score and Sevilla to Win @ 3.10 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

October Final: 20-16-1, + 12.94 Units (51 Units Staked, + 25.37% Yield)
September Final: 13-12, + 1.24 Units (39 Units Staked, + 3.18% Yield)
August Final: 13-26, - 12.13 Units (54 Units Staked, - 22.46% Yield)

Season 2013/14: 46-44-1, + 2.05 Units (144 Units Staked, + 1.42% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)