That was not a good week for me as 6 out of 8 picks fell down the crapper, although at least two of those could easily have gone the other way... That doesn't matter now and it turned out to be a poor week, although the season is still in decent shape.
With a couple of weeks of the regular season left before the Conference Championship Games and the Bowl Games, this is the last chance for schools to get themselves in a position to become Bowl eligible, while others already know their chances are over.
Alabama and Florida State remain one and two in the nation, but there has to be a few concerns with the allegations that are being investigated about Jameis Winston and whether that will see the voters perhaps look to Ohio State or Baylor as a team that should move up into the top two spots. Unless the Seminoles lose or Winston is charged with something in the coming couple of weeks, that is probably unlikely, but it does give those latter two schools another reason to continue bashing up their opponents.
It won't be easy for Baylor who face Oklahoma State this week on the road, while Ohio State's best chance for picking up style points will likely come from a potential Big Ten Championship Game against Michigan State. With lots to play for in the remaining couple of weeks of the regular season, College Football is certainly still keeping the interest of fans all over the place.
Michigan State Spartans @ Northwestern Wildcats Pick: The Michigan State Spartans Offense may not have the power to really exploit the pass Defense problems that Northwestern have, but they have a Defense that could win the field battle and thus come through and win.
It can be hard for a team to get out of a slump, especially in the College ranks, but Northwestern have enough motivation to try and rally and get into a Bowl game.
The problem is that Michigan State have plenty of motivation themselves to win the Legends Division and book a place in the Championship game. I expect their Defense to be the best unit on the field and set up the Spartans for a win by at least a Touchdown.
Duke Blue Devils @ Wake Forest Demon Deacons Pick: For the life of me, I can't understand why the Duke Blue Devils are 'only' favoured by six points in this game as they have all the momentum and could force turnovers to see them cover the spread.
That 'trap' line does worry me because nothing in College Football or the NFL is ever as straight forward as they seem, but Duke have been playing strong football of late. Unless the pressure of winning the Coastal Division has got to them, or if they have suddenly woken up on the success they have had this season, you would expect the Blue Devils to be too strong for Wake Forest in this one.
I think Duke will need to add to their takeaways if they are to cover in this one, but they won by a Touchdown last season and could have a similar result this time too.
Illinois Fighting Illini @ Purdue Boilermakers Pick: I probably need my head testing to trust the Illinois Fighting Illini to win and cover a spread considering how horrible their Defense has played throughout the season.
However, it has to be said that this is an Offense that is capable of scoring plenty of points and they will also be benefiting from the fact that they are playing a Purdue Offense that has struggled.
It is no surprise considering how many Freshmen players they are starting, including the Quarter Back, and that may help Illinois find a way to win this game. The Fighting Illini will give up their yards as they have all season, but I think they can score enough points to force Danny Etling into a mistake or two and win this game by a Touchdown at least.
East Carolina Pirates @ North Carolina State Wolfpack Pick: The match up here looks a good one for the East Carolina Pirates on both sides of the ball and I would expect Shane Carden to really have another big game as long as the Pirates can keep the rushing game going from last week.
Carden and the Offense have put up big points and that has allowed the Defense to excel with their pass rush as teams are forced to play catch up. North Carolina State have struggled to run the ball and becoming one-dimensional against this Defense when potentially chasing a game is not the position they will want to be in.
The Pirates have already crushed North Carolina earlier this season and I think they are going to be too strong for the Wolfpack too. It doesn't look enough points to be giving an Offense like East Carolina's and they should be able to win by a Touchdown with a turnover or two in their favour.
Texas A&M Aggies @ LSU Tigers Pick: Both teams are coming off byes with the knowledge they could still finish in one of the big Bowl games this post-season despite falling short of their own aims to compete for the National Championship.
He may not have announced it yet, but the consensus is that Johnny Manziel will make himself eligible for the NFL Draft after this season and that means we have up to three games left to enjoy a player that has made a big impact in two seasons in College Football. Manziel should be able to lead his Offense to plenty of points, but will need the Aggies Defense to step up to the plate for the first time this season.
Texas A&M have given up far too many points and I expect the LSU Tigers to punish them with their expanded Offense. Les Miles has only once lost back to back games too so the Tigers will feel they can win this game, but I can't help think that some Manziel magic could keep this close.
With the Aggies getting five points, I can see them picking up a backdoor cover in this one in what should be a competitive game throughout and it is one where Texas A&M certainly have a shot to win the game outright.
Utah Utes @ Washington State Cougars Pick: You know what you are going to get from Mike Leach and his Offense so it is no surprise that Washington State will be flinging the ball around in this one. After snapping a 3 game losing run with a surprise win last week, the Cougars can make themselves Bowl eligible with a win on Saturday against the slumping Utah Utes.
Utah have lost 4 on the spin and need to win out if they are to get to 6 wins for the season and they should have their own success in this one with a more balanced attack than what Washington State will use.
Both teams should score points in this one, but home advantage may be the key for the Cougars on 'Senior Day' and I can see that motivation proving to be the difference when it is all said and done. Utah have run a couple of the better teams in the Pac-12 close, but they have also been beaten handily in their road games where they are now 1-3 after losing all 3 road Conference games.
Missouri Tigers @ Ole Miss Rebels Pick: The Missouri Tigers can't afford to slip up over the next two weeks if they want to complete their surprise season and get into the SEC Championship Game. No one expected the Tigers to top the loaded SEC East, but their one loss to the South Carolina Gamecocks could still come back to haunt them if they were to drop another game.
The return of James Franklin could be critical for the Tigers to get the job done over the next two weeks, but I don't expect this to be a walkover for Missouri as the pass Defense has given up big yards through the air which is where Ole Miss' Offense really excels.
However, the Tigers Defense has been opportunistic in creating turnovers and that could prove to be the ultimate difference as a couple of extra possessions will be critical in getting them over the line. Ole Miss have avoided the big mistakes for the most part this season, but the Tigers can get a heavy pass rush that will disrupt things up front and that is where mistakes can be made by Quarter Backs as they try to steer out of trouble.
Boise State Broncos @ San Diego State Aztecs Pick: Boise State will be after some revenge after suffering a home loss against the Aztecs last season and they are playing well enough to snap a three game win streak the San Diego State team are enjoying coming into the game.
Both teams should be able to score points in the game, but it is the Broncos that have looked after the ball a little better through the course of the season and I would expect them to win the turnover battle.
Boise State have also had a little more luck in turning the ball over too and I think that is the best way these Defenses will stop sustained drives taking control of the game... While I expect both teams to score points, the extra possessions should help Boise State win this one by at least a Touchdown.
MY PICKS: Michigan State Spartans - 6 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Duke Blue Devils - 6 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Illinois Fighting Illini - 6 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
East Carolina Pirates - 6 Points @ 2.00 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Texas A&M Aggies + 5 Points @ 2.00 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Washington State Cougars - 1.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Missouri Tigers - 2.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Boise State Broncos - 6 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Week 12: 2-6, - 4 Units (8 Units Staked, - 50% Yield)
Week 11: 7-2, + 4.59 Units (9 Units Staked, + 51% Yield)
Week 10: 6-3-1, + 2.69 Units (10 Units Staked, + 26.9% Yield)
Week 9: 4-4, - 0.23 Units (8 Units Staked, - 2.86% Yield)
Week 8: 6-2, + 3.58 Units (8 Units Staked, + 44.75% Yield)
Week 7: 3-6, - 3.26 Units (9 Units Staked, - 36.22% Yield)
Week 6: 3-5, - 2.08 Units (8 Units Staked, - 26% Yield)
Week 5; 6-2, + 3.66 Units (8 Units Staked, + 45.75% Yield)
Week 4: 2-6, - 4.08 Units (8 Units Staked, - 51% Yield)
Week 3: 5-2-1, + 2.77 Units (8 Units Staked, + 34.63% Yield)
Week 2: 6-2, + 3.55 Units (8 Units Staked, + 44.38% Yield)
Week 1: 4-3, + 0.74 Units (7 Units Staked, + 10.57% Yield)
Season 2013: 52-37-2, + 7.93 Units (99 Units Staked, + 8.01% Yield)
Season 2012: 54-59-1 - 7.11 Units (114 Units Staked, - 6.24% Yield)
Season 2011: 63-36, + 23.25 Units (99 Units Staked, + 23.5% Yield)
No comments:
Post a Comment