Well, well, well, that has really put the cat amongst the pigeons as Stanford continued their recent dominance of Oregon and knocked off the unbeaten Ducks on Thursday night. With Oregon gone from the ranks of the unbeaten, Alabama and Florida State are set to meet in the National Championship game with neither needing style points to be ranked 1 and 2 in the nation.
But in the famous words of Lee Corso, 'not so fast my friends': the Baylor Bears are quietly not just beating teams, but blowing them out and they made a big statement by crushing the Oklahoma Sooners on Thursday night to remain unbeaten and also in pole position to win the Big 12 Conference.
Ohio State will need to win games big the rest of the season if they are to get in the mix, while Fresno State are a long shot... I do wish the Play Off system was in place for this season as I would loved to have seen Alabama's might Defense take on the high-powered Baylor Offense in a 'Semi Final', while the other would have been a clash between Ohio State and Florida State where the Buckeyes would potentially be putting their two year unbeaten run on the line.
Style does make a big difference at the moment and Florida State's two blow outs of then unbeaten teams Clemson and Miami is going to be tough to ignore the rest of the way, while the whole nation is fascinated by what Jameis Winston can do behind Center.
There have been too many non-performances from Ohio State to see that overturned in the last month of the season and both them and Baylor will be hoping the top two can be knocked off along the way to get involved in the National Championship discussion. The Buckeyes are also playing in a Conference that isn't being rated very highly and that also goes against their unbeaten season. At this moment in time, everyone is salivating at the prospect of seeing Alabama go up against Winston and the Seminoles and that is going to be very difficult to change the rest of the way.
However, if there is one thing I know about College Football is that you should expect the unexpected when it comes to these unbeaten teams and focus is going to be key for the 'big four' unbeaten teams with a month to go.
Texas Christian Horned Frogs @ Iowa State Cyclones Pick: Both of these teams have been largely disappointing, but the TCU Horned Frogs can at least run the table and make themselves Bowl eligible and I do like them to win this game.
The TCU Defense has played pretty well to be fair to them, and the should shut down the running game the Cyclones have, while getting plenty of pressure up front and look to turn the ball over.
The whole key to this game is Casey Pachall who had a big game last week despite the Horned Frogs falling just short. He should have more success against a Defense that has allowed more than 250 yards per game through the air and I do think TCU will win this game as long as they limit the turnovers when they have the ball.
Missouri Tigers @ Kentucky Wildcats Pick: If you were worried that Missouri may have a let down after losing their first game of the season against the South Carolina Gamecocks in overtime, you needn't have done as they crushed Tennessee last week.
Maty Mauk should continue leading this team effectively if James Franklin is not ready to go, especially as the Kentucky Wildcats have struggled badly to stop the run. I am expecting Missouri to pound the ball and keep the team in third and short situations which will allow them to control the clock and tire out a Defense that may have to spend long drives on the field.
I am not convinced that Kentucky have enough passing from the Quarter Back position to keep up with Missouri in this one and it would be their passing game that will need to be firing in this one. The Tigers have been solid against the run this season and may slow down Jalen Whitlow just enough to force the Wildcats to pass to keep up.
That is when the pressure up front and the turnover creating Defense of the Tigers may take over the game and I like Missouri to find a way to cover the spread.
Florida State Seminoles @ Wake Forest Demon Deacons Pick: This is a huge spread to cover, especially if Florida State decide to rest their starters as they did against North Carolina State a couple of weeks ago which saw the latter complete a backdoor cover.
However, the defeat for Oregon on Thursday should keep Florida State very much focused on this game and I think they are going to be far too good for Wake Forest.
Losing the Demon Deacons top Receiving option will make it tough for them to score points on the Seminoles and also to even sustain drives. Turnovers may be another problem for them and Florida State should be able to put up enough points to see them cover as long as the starters stay in for at least three quarters.
As I said, it is a big spread, but Florida State have been winning games by big margins and I like Jameis Winston to lead them to another big one on the road.
Iowa Hawkeyes @ Purdue Boilermakers Pick: The Purdue Boilermakers have scored just 7 points in their last three games and have been struggling very much on Offense where they have failed to score a point in the last two games. The Offensive Line has struggled to keep the Quarter Back upright and that has made it tough for Danny Etling to complete passes.
There is no doubt that the Hawkeyes have to be better in the Red Zone, but they have the higher motivation with the chance to become Bowl eligible in this game. Iowa should be able to make big gains on the ground, although Jake Rudock has to protect the ball better than he has for much of this season.
I would expect Iowa to lean on the running game after Purdue were gashed on the ground by Ohio State last week and I like the Hawkeyes to cover this spread.
Auburn Tigers @ Tennessee Volunteers Pick: I have to have some respect for Tennessee in this game as they have won 4 of their 5 home games so far this season, but it is a big ask for them to beat a confident Auburn team with a back up Quarter Back in the game.
Joshua Dobbs struggled a lot last week and he will have to do a lot of the work in this one, but he has to be more careful with the ball if the Volunteers are to make this a real game.
The problem is going to come if Rajion Neal and the rushing game is not working effectively as it was struggling last week against Missouri. On the other hand, I expect Auburn could tire out a Defense that was given the ground and pound treatment last week by Missouri and are likely going to have to deal with a lot of running plays again this week.
Auburn's Defense may just make couple of big plays that sees them turn the ball over and help them clear this spread taking them one step closer to making the game with Alabama a winner takes all in the SEC West.
Arizona State Sun Devils @ Utah Utes Pick: Confidence must have been very high for Utah after they knocked off Stanford last month, but back to back defeats and the visit of a high-flying Arizona State team looks a big ask for them to overcome.
The Sun Devils have been putting up big numbers Offensively, but the Defense has also quietly been going about their business and I just feel they can make Utah one dimensional on Offense which will give them a big advantage.
Arizona State have dominated Utah the last two years and they look the stronger team this year too- I like them to cover, especially with full focus of a team that has beaten a ranked team in Stanford here already.
North Carolina State Wolf Pack @ Duke Blue Devils Pick: It is going to take some effort for the North Carolina State team to get up from their loss to local rivals North Carolina last week and they have lost 4 straight matches while facing a Duke team that will be full of confidence that comes with 4 straight wins.
The teams are trending in opposite ways, while Pete Thomas has to do better at protecting the ball if the Wolf Pack are to beat Duke. That is in contrast to what the Blue Devils can do with the ball, although they have been turning over the ball too much too.
A problem for the Wolf Pack is that they have struggled to stop the run too, while their own Offense can become one-dimensional and that should make the difference for Duke to go on and win this game handily.
Houston Cougars @ UCF Knights Pick: The winner of this game will have the inside track to win the American Athletic Conference, although the Louisville Cardinals will be hoping the Houston Cougars can spring the surprise having been beaten by the UCF Knights earlier this season.
That would open the door for Teddy Bridgewater and his crew who take on Houston next.
I am surprised with the amount of points being given to the Cougars in this one because they have a high-powered Offense that should have their chance to score points. Both teams are pretty stout against the run, but both can also air the ball out very effectively which could open up the running lanes.
The UCF pass Defense is a little better than Houston's and that may be the reason the Knights come through and win the game, but the backdoor cover has a real chance in my opinion at the least and I like the Cougars to cover.
UCLA Bruins @ Arizona Wildcats Pick: The winner of this game will still have a chance to win the Pac-12 South and a chance to play for the Conference title, while the loser will effectively settle for a lesser Bowl appearance after the regular season is over.
UCLA smashed Arizona at home last season so there is a real revenge angle at play for Arizona, but I am surprised that the Bruins are considered the dog in the game.
Yes, the Bruins have lost road games at the best teams they have faced, but I am not convinced Arizona should be labelled as one of those and I think Brett Hundley is going to make the big plays for UCLA in this one. Hundley should have a clean pocket to make plays for much of this game and that might be what gives the Bruins the edge and I like them with the points.
MY PICKS: TCU Horned Frogs - 6.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Kentucky Wildcats - 14 Points @ 1.92 William Hill (1 Unit)
Florida State Seminoles - 34 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Iowa Hawkeyes - 14.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Auburn Tigers - 7 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Arizona State Sun Devils - 7 Points @ 1.90 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Duke Blue Devils - 10 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Houston Cougars + 12 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
UCLA Bruins + 2.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Week 10: 6-3-1, + 2.69 Units (10 Units Staked, + 26.9% Yield)
Week 9: 4-4, - 0.23 Units (8 Units Staked, - 2.86% Yield)
Week 8: 6-2, + 3.58 Units (8 Units Staked, + 44.75% Yield)
Week 7: 3-6, - 3.26 Units (9 Units Staked, - 36.22% Yield)
Week 6: 3-5, - 2.08 Units (8 Units Staked, - 26% Yield)
Week 5; 6-2, + 3.66 Units (8 Units Staked, + 45.75% Yield)
Week 4: 2-6, - 4.08 Units (8 Units Staked, - 51% Yield)
Week 3: 5-2-1, + 2.77 Units (8 Units Staked, + 34.63% Yield)
Week 2: 6-2, + 3.55 Units (8 Units Staked, + 44.38% Yield)
Week 1: 4-3, + 0.74 Units (7 Units Staked, + 10.57% Yield)
Season 2013: 45-35-2, + 7.34 Units (82 Units Staked, + 8.95% Yield)
Season 2012: 54-59-1 - 7.11 Units (114 Units Staked, - 6.24% Yield)
Season 2011: 63-36, + 23.25 Units (99 Units Staked, + 23.5% Yield)
No comments:
Post a Comment