Why do I think that happened? I do believe it was down to teams with losing records taking more chances as they had 'nothing to lose' with the Play Offs already out of reach, while my focus probably wasn't at its best which was only recovered by the time the Play Offs rolled around. I'll be looking to avoid that fate this time around as a very important week for a number of teams begins.
Week 11 Thoughts
The big no call at the end of the Carolina-New England game on Monday Night Football: It was quite an unbelievable end to the Panthers-Patriots game on Monday night as Tom Brady looked to lead New England on a game winning drive.
I was more bemused by the fact that the officials barely gave an announcement as to why the flag had been picked up and instead the head referee was walked down the tunnel with Tom Brady telling him what a 'fucking brutal' call had been made.
The NFL have, unsurprisingly, backed the officials decision as being the correct one, but I think the best point being made at the moment is that this is a call that would have been called pass interference if it occurred anywhere else on the field. Forget the last drive too- if this happens at any other time bar the last play of the game, I am sure that DPI would have been called and New England could have the ball on the Carolina 1 yard line.
Like many other sports, the inconsistency in the calls made by the referees is what infuriates fans/players/coaches and this is another example of that... And just out of interest, move this game to New England and what are the chances of the referee picking up the flag and ending the game on a play like that for the HOME team?
Jim Schwartz, what are you thinking? Your team is up by four points and you have a chip shot to score a Field Goal and go up by a Touchdown... So why would any Head Coach decide to try a fake Field Goal there?
I really don't understand Jim Schwartz' thinking here, especially after saying last week that Detroit look a team that is going places, but a defeat like that has me questioning the Lions again. They are known for shooting themselves in the foot, but the loss has given Chicago a way back into the NFC North, while Green Bay are also in contention despite losing 3 games in a row.
The game on Thanksgiving Day against the Packers is all important for Detroit now, but the Lions have to do better with their play-calling if they are to achieve their aims of making the Play Offs and also find someone outside of Calvin Johnson to make the big plays down the stretch.
Kansas City are who we thought they were: I haven't really respected the 9-0 record that the Kansas City Chiefs brought into their Week 11 game against Denver and the problem certainly came from the fact that they had to come from a big deficit to get into the game.
I had my doubts that the Chiefs could come back from a two possession deficit with the way the Offense runs and that proved to be the case on Sunday.
The Defense is probably even better than I thought, although they will need to get the pass rush going in the second game against the Broncos in Week 13, but Kansas City will need to score more points if they are to go deep into the Play Offs.
I remain unconvinced they can do that if I am honest, but they have another chance to change my mind in Week 13.
Gary Kubiak may just have cost himself the Head Coach job at Houston: I feel sorry for what Gary Kubiak had to go through when he suffered a mini-stroke recently at half time of a nationally televised game, but he may just have punched his ticket out of Houston with his decision on Sunday in the loss to Oakland.
Being 2-8 is one thing, but why in the world did Gary Kubiak think it was a good idea to pull Case Keenum and bring back Matt Schaub? His reasoning makes no sense, while the fans teed off on Schaub for the rest of the game.
Schaub then got into an argument with Andre Johnson, who has been in great form since Keenum took the starting job, to end the game and it was a strange decision that has backfired badly and will ultimately cost Kubiak his job in my opinion.
Making matters stranger, Kubiak has announced that Keenum will be the starter again next week which makes Sunday that much more baffling as far as I am concerned.
Seattle Seahawks should win home-field advantage: I think the San Francisco loss to New Orleans has given Seattle the inside edge to home-field advantage in the NFC and that means big trouble for the rest of the teams in that Conference.
Seattle just don't lose at home these days, riding a 13 game winning run there and a win over the New Orleans Saints there after their bye this week will surely give the Seahawks the Number 1 seed.
They would have tie-breakers over the Saints and Panthers, while they hold a big lead over the 49ers in the Division and the schedule would favour Seattle too. Pete Carroll knows the window isn't that big for this Seahawks team to win it all and they are the favourites to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl this year.
My Play Off teams: For the rest of the season, I will make the prediction of which teams will make the Play Offs and their seedings. Of course these predictions could change on a weekly basis as surprise results, injuries and other intangibles take their toll.
AFC- 1) Denver, 2) New England, 3) Indianapolis, 4) Cincinnati, 5) Kansas City, 6) Pittsburgh
NFC- 1) Seattle, 2) New Orleans, 3) Philadelphia, 4) Green Bay, 5) Carolina, 6) San Francisco
Top Ten
1) Seattle Seahawks (10-1): Only team with ten wins and in control of the whole NFC
2) Denver Broncos (9-1): A huge win for the Broncos in their bid to win the Number 1 seed in the AFC.
3) New Orleans Saints (8-2): That was an impressive win over San Francisco, but another big test awaits in Week 13 in Seattle.
4) Kansas City Chiefs (9-1): Could this be the start of a real slip for the Chiefs?
5) Carolina Panthers (7-3): One of the hottest teams in the NFL, although they got away with a win over New England on Monday Night Football.
6) Indianapolis Colts (7-3): I am not convinced about a team that can't run the ball and has lost Reggie Wayne, but they have virtually won the AFC South already.
7) Cincinnati Bengals (7-4): Andy Dalton has to play better after the bye if the Bengals are to win the AFC North.
8) Philadelphia Eagles (6-5): A bye this week, but may still have lead in the NFC East depending on the Giants-Cowboys outcome.
9) Chicago Bears (6-4): Back in the NFC North Division hunt despite being swept by Detroit.
10) Arizona Cardinals (6-4): It may be controversial to put them above the 49ers, but Arizona are on a winning streak, are back in the Wild Card mix with a tie-breaker win over Carolina and San Francisco are on a two game slide.
Bottom Five
32) Jacksonville Jaguars (1-9): Things are back to normal as the Jaguars lose by double-digits again.
31) Houston Texans (2-8): Taking out Case Keenum, their best chance to win, and eight losses in a row is terrible for a team that was thinking Super Bowl.
30) Atlanta Falcons (2-8): Injuries have killed the Offense, Matt Ryan has regressed the last few weeks and Atlanta have four losses in a row.
29) Minnesota Vikings (2-8): Minnesota have permanently been in my bottom five, but they are unlikely to move out with issues at Quarter Back and the whole Defense.
28) Washington Redskins (3-7): Lost to the Vikings, and played an awful game for much of their loss to Philadelphia with questions about Mike Shanahan's future as Head Coach.
Week 12 Picks
It was a strong Week 11 for the picks and this has all felt good after seeing the way Vegas have been battering the public according to the financials released each week. This is an interesting week where there are a number of the Play Off chasing teams facing one another and the race to the post-season is going to be fascinating in both Conferences.
It will all begin with a Divisional game on Thursday night which should have been a very important one for both teams and I hope another good week is in the offing. I am also looking to avoid the collapse that came last season at around this time, but paying full attention to the games and spots should hopefully help me avoid that carnage.
New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons Pick: I don't like being on a team that is being backed by the public as heavily as the New Orleans Saints are, but they do look the right side to me and I will take them to inflict a big win over their Divisional rivals.
While some will worry about the Saints having to face Seattle next, I am of the belief that they will feel they have enough time to prepare for that game with this being a Thursday Night tilt and not facing the Seahawks until Monday Night Football. New Orleans also can't afford to drop a Divisional game with Carolina just a game behind so I expect a full focus from the Saints.
I just don't see a way where Atlanta can slow down this Offense and it would not surprise me in the least if New Orleans become the fourth team in a row to surpass 30 points against them. There are too many Offensive weapons, even without Darren Sproles, for Drew Brees to lean on and that means the question shifts to Atlanta's Offense.
Matt Ryan has struggled without the Receiving weapons he had last season and he is making too many mistakes in recent weeks. He might be revitalised, with the rest of the team, to try and play spoiler against a Divisional rival, but it is a big ask for Atlanta to score enough points to make this competitive.
I am expecting a fully focused New Orleans team to pull away from Atlanta as this game goes on and record a double digit win on the road.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns Pick: It isn't a familiar position for the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the underdog when going up against the Cleveland Browns, but I do think they are worth backing with the points in this game.
The Cleveland Defense is legit, but does anyone really trust the Offense not to implode in a similar fashion to last week? On the other hand, it has to be considered that the Steelers will find it tough to move the chains themselves as Joe Haden should be able to take out Antonio Brown for much of the game and force Ben Roethlisberger to look elsewhere.
Running the ball won't be easy for the Steelers, but Cleveland should have more success doing that and I wouldn't be surprised if the Browns can complete a Divisional home sweep with another win today. However, the momentum has definitely been behind Pittsburgh in recent weeks and I have a suspicion that they are going to sneak the 6 seed in the AFC. They can't afford to lose here and I'll have a small interest with the points.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Detroit Lions Pick: It may have taken the Tampa Bay coaching staff a little too long to realise what kind of quality player that they have in Darrelle Revis, but they have learned that in time and have begun to win games. It was a poor start to the year for the Buccaneers, but back to back wins gives them confidence and they gave Seattle fits on the road only three weeks ago.
Having Revis in man coverage will mean he is matched up with Calvin Johnson and the key for Tampa Bay is their big Corner Back acquisition will consider this a successful game if he can restrict Johnson's impact.
If Tampa Bay can force Detroit to look for other options, they will have a chance in this game to spring the surprise, especially if Mike Glennon can exploit a Secondary that has struggled this season. Tampa Bay will need to at least keep Detroit honest and pound the ball on the ground too, although I can't see too much success for them when trying that.
It does feel the Buccaneers are getting too many points in this one, especially if you consider Detroit have a huge game on Thursday when they host the Green Bay Packers. That game is far more important than this one and the Lions may be guilty of overlooking Tampa Bay to an extent.
The Buccaneers are playing well enough to make Detroit pay if that is the case and I will take the points in this one.
Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers Pick: I really don't know why the Green Bay Packers are being backed so heavily to cover the spread in this one unless Aaron Rodgers has secretly made it clear that he will be playing... If Rodgers was starting, I would like the Packers to win this one going away, but don't have the same faith of Scott Tolzien doing that.
Tolzien hasn't played badly between the 20's, but he has made critical mistakes inside the red zone, and turnovers in general have hurt his play. I don't think the Vikings are playing well enough in the Secondary to slow down this Offense, but they have been solid against the run so Eddie Lacy might not be as effective and force the Quarter Back to win the game.
As bad as Minnesota have been Defensively, they will be completely focused on trying to derail a Divisional rival and have a decent match up on paper when they have the ball. The Packers have begun to struggle Defensively, perhaps because their own Offense isn't having long drives to give them enough rest, and I can see Adrian Peterson being a real factor in this one.
Peterson should have a lot of running room in this one, while Christian Ponder, the most likely starting Quarter Back, is going to be facing a Defense that has struggled against the pass in their most recent games. The Vikings should be able to score enough points to at least keep this close, even if they don't win, especially with the Packers having a big 'win or bust' game at Detroit during the week. Green Bay can't afford to drop this game if they are to make the Play Offs, but I have a feeling it will be closer than the points suggest.
New York Jets @ Baltimore Ravens Pick: I know, I know, Geno Smith was a travesty last week in the loss to the Buffalo Bills, but he has been bad one week and followed that up with a comeback performance and that will hopefully be the case in this one for the Jets backers.
I am more convinced with the Jets Defense and I expect them to make it tough for Joe Flacco and a lethargic Baltimore Offense that we have seen for most of the season. They have struggled to put together sustained drives and it is only their own Defense that has kept them in games.
Baltimore should be able to at least pressure Smith in the pocket and neither team is going to be able to run the ball effectively so the Jets Quarter Back has to avoid the turnovers that cost the Jets the game last week. This has all the making of a low-scoring game so mistakes are going to be highlighted as those extra possessions or short fields will be critical.
The Jets Secondary hasn't played that well at times, but I am not sure the Ravens can exploit that and getting more than a field goal start for the road team looks good. Baltimore could easily be focused on the big Thanksgiving Day game against the Steelers at home too so a three point win might be the best they can hope for.
San Diego Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: Backing against teams in a bad spot in the NFL is usually a productive place to start and the Kansas City Chiefs can't be in a worse spot. This game comes between two big games against the Denver Broncos, who handed the Chiefs their first loss of the season last weekend.
Emotionally it can be tough to recover from such a loss, while the Kansas City Offense isn't exactly known for putting a lot of points on the board and all that should give the desperate San Diego Chargers a chance in the game.
San Diego lost an important game at the Miami Dolphins last week and another loss this week will seriously dent their chances of earning the final Wild Card place in the AFC, but they have one of the more effective Quarter Backs of the season and Philip Rivers is capable of engineering long scoring drives.
As long as Rivers avoids turning the ball over, the Chargers certainly have half a chance to spring the surprise in this one, even with their turgid Defense on the field. Both teams will chew up a lot of clock with their drives so getting more than a field goal start for San Diego is the call.
Carolina Panthers @ Miami Dolphins Pick: Carolina are arguably the hottest team in the NFL at the moment and are coming off two huge wins at the San Francisco 49ers and at home against the New England Patriots, but that might make them a little susceptible for a surprise result in this one.
Carolina are not in a great spot after those big wins and a quick look at their schedule shows the game against Miami is the 'easiest' one they have in a run of around 6 games. The Panthers could potentially overlook the Dolphins after an emotional couple of close wins and they are on a short week.
The absence of Charles Johnson may make it easier for Ryan Tannehill to find time in the pocket to hurt Carolina in the Secondary, while I expect the Dolphins to establish the run in this one.
Establishing the run makes it easier for Tannehill to complete the passes he needs to, while Miami will try and set their pass rush up to hurry Cam Newton and try and force him to make mistakes.
Both teams will look to run the ball, which could shorten the game, and I think the emotional let down spot is too big to ignore and the Dolphins are perhaps being given too many points in this one.
Indianapolis Colts @ Arizona Cardinals Pick: It is the time of the season when you do have to look at spots that teams find themselves in and there is no doubt that the Indianapolis Colts are in a bad spot with this non-Conference game coming between the big games with the Tennessee Titans.
Winning the game next week would secure Indianapolis' place in the Play Offs as they can wrap up the Division and they could easily overlook a game at a non-Conference foe.
Arizona also have a lot of momentum behind them and I think Carson Palmer could have a big game against this Secondary with Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd. The Colts haven't been at their best Defensively in the last three weeks, while the Offense could struggle to sustain drives against the Cardinals Defense.
We saw another NFC West team bamboozle Andrew Luck recently when the St Louis Rams turned the ball over and won at a canter. I don't expect this to be as easy, but I think Arizona will shut down the running game and force Luck to throw to Receivers that have had drops, while also trying to avoid mistakes against a ball-hawking Secondary.
I wish the spread had come under the key number of 3, but I do like the Cardinals to win this game.
Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants Pick: The Dallas Cowboys Defense has been brutal the last few games and they are giving up far too many yards per game on that side of the ball. The loss of Sean Lee is critical to their chances and I think this has swung the edge in the game towards the New York Giants who are rallying in the NFC East with a 4 game winning run.
I still don't fully trust Eli Manning to avoid the mistakes that have plagued his game this season, but the Giants have found a semblance of a running game that keeps the pressure off the Quarter Back. Dallas will find it tough to bring down Andre Brown and Brandon Jacobs without their inspirational Linebacker Lee.
If the Giants can run the ball, Eli will feel he doesn't have to push too much, the reason he has given for the number of Interceptions thrown, while Dallas haven't shown they are capable of slowing down too many teams when throwing the ball.
Tony Romo is capable of leading the Offense in a shoot-out as shown in the game with the Denver Broncos, but he hasn't played that well of late and the pressure will be on him as the Cowboys are unlikely to have a lot of success running the ball.
Romo will at least have Miles Austin back and Dez Bryant healthier, but I think the Giants are going to find a way to win this game and level their record with the Cowboys in the NFC East.
Denver Broncos @ New England Patriots Pick: It is always fascinating to see Tom Brady go up against Peyton Manning, but I do feel the edge is with the Denver Broncos in this one, particularly on the Defensive side of the ball.
Both Offenses should keep the chains moving, but I can see Denver making more stops and perhaps forcing more field goal attempts than the other way around.
Denver create so many match up problems that it is tough to slow down their Offense, although this is coming between two big Divisional games against the Kansas City Chiefs. Tom Brady is also exceptional when coming off a loss and rarely will guide his team to back to back losses.
The gusty wind forecast could also be a problem for the passing game and that would swing the momentum to New England in my opinion as they are better at the ground game of the two teams. However, I think the Broncos are going to make enough plays to win this one and put Denver in a strong position to secure home field advantage in the Play Offs for the second season in a row.
While some will worry about the Saints having to face Seattle next, I am of the belief that they will feel they have enough time to prepare for that game with this being a Thursday Night tilt and not facing the Seahawks until Monday Night Football. New Orleans also can't afford to drop a Divisional game with Carolina just a game behind so I expect a full focus from the Saints.
I just don't see a way where Atlanta can slow down this Offense and it would not surprise me in the least if New Orleans become the fourth team in a row to surpass 30 points against them. There are too many Offensive weapons, even without Darren Sproles, for Drew Brees to lean on and that means the question shifts to Atlanta's Offense.
Matt Ryan has struggled without the Receiving weapons he had last season and he is making too many mistakes in recent weeks. He might be revitalised, with the rest of the team, to try and play spoiler against a Divisional rival, but it is a big ask for Atlanta to score enough points to make this competitive.
I am expecting a fully focused New Orleans team to pull away from Atlanta as this game goes on and record a double digit win on the road.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns Pick: It isn't a familiar position for the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the underdog when going up against the Cleveland Browns, but I do think they are worth backing with the points in this game.
The Cleveland Defense is legit, but does anyone really trust the Offense not to implode in a similar fashion to last week? On the other hand, it has to be considered that the Steelers will find it tough to move the chains themselves as Joe Haden should be able to take out Antonio Brown for much of the game and force Ben Roethlisberger to look elsewhere.
Running the ball won't be easy for the Steelers, but Cleveland should have more success doing that and I wouldn't be surprised if the Browns can complete a Divisional home sweep with another win today. However, the momentum has definitely been behind Pittsburgh in recent weeks and I have a suspicion that they are going to sneak the 6 seed in the AFC. They can't afford to lose here and I'll have a small interest with the points.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Detroit Lions Pick: It may have taken the Tampa Bay coaching staff a little too long to realise what kind of quality player that they have in Darrelle Revis, but they have learned that in time and have begun to win games. It was a poor start to the year for the Buccaneers, but back to back wins gives them confidence and they gave Seattle fits on the road only three weeks ago.
Having Revis in man coverage will mean he is matched up with Calvin Johnson and the key for Tampa Bay is their big Corner Back acquisition will consider this a successful game if he can restrict Johnson's impact.
If Tampa Bay can force Detroit to look for other options, they will have a chance in this game to spring the surprise, especially if Mike Glennon can exploit a Secondary that has struggled this season. Tampa Bay will need to at least keep Detroit honest and pound the ball on the ground too, although I can't see too much success for them when trying that.
It does feel the Buccaneers are getting too many points in this one, especially if you consider Detroit have a huge game on Thursday when they host the Green Bay Packers. That game is far more important than this one and the Lions may be guilty of overlooking Tampa Bay to an extent.
The Buccaneers are playing well enough to make Detroit pay if that is the case and I will take the points in this one.
Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers Pick: I really don't know why the Green Bay Packers are being backed so heavily to cover the spread in this one unless Aaron Rodgers has secretly made it clear that he will be playing... If Rodgers was starting, I would like the Packers to win this one going away, but don't have the same faith of Scott Tolzien doing that.
Tolzien hasn't played badly between the 20's, but he has made critical mistakes inside the red zone, and turnovers in general have hurt his play. I don't think the Vikings are playing well enough in the Secondary to slow down this Offense, but they have been solid against the run so Eddie Lacy might not be as effective and force the Quarter Back to win the game.
As bad as Minnesota have been Defensively, they will be completely focused on trying to derail a Divisional rival and have a decent match up on paper when they have the ball. The Packers have begun to struggle Defensively, perhaps because their own Offense isn't having long drives to give them enough rest, and I can see Adrian Peterson being a real factor in this one.
Peterson should have a lot of running room in this one, while Christian Ponder, the most likely starting Quarter Back, is going to be facing a Defense that has struggled against the pass in their most recent games. The Vikings should be able to score enough points to at least keep this close, even if they don't win, especially with the Packers having a big 'win or bust' game at Detroit during the week. Green Bay can't afford to drop this game if they are to make the Play Offs, but I have a feeling it will be closer than the points suggest.
New York Jets @ Baltimore Ravens Pick: I know, I know, Geno Smith was a travesty last week in the loss to the Buffalo Bills, but he has been bad one week and followed that up with a comeback performance and that will hopefully be the case in this one for the Jets backers.
I am more convinced with the Jets Defense and I expect them to make it tough for Joe Flacco and a lethargic Baltimore Offense that we have seen for most of the season. They have struggled to put together sustained drives and it is only their own Defense that has kept them in games.
Baltimore should be able to at least pressure Smith in the pocket and neither team is going to be able to run the ball effectively so the Jets Quarter Back has to avoid the turnovers that cost the Jets the game last week. This has all the making of a low-scoring game so mistakes are going to be highlighted as those extra possessions or short fields will be critical.
The Jets Secondary hasn't played that well at times, but I am not sure the Ravens can exploit that and getting more than a field goal start for the road team looks good. Baltimore could easily be focused on the big Thanksgiving Day game against the Steelers at home too so a three point win might be the best they can hope for.
San Diego Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: Backing against teams in a bad spot in the NFL is usually a productive place to start and the Kansas City Chiefs can't be in a worse spot. This game comes between two big games against the Denver Broncos, who handed the Chiefs their first loss of the season last weekend.
Emotionally it can be tough to recover from such a loss, while the Kansas City Offense isn't exactly known for putting a lot of points on the board and all that should give the desperate San Diego Chargers a chance in the game.
San Diego lost an important game at the Miami Dolphins last week and another loss this week will seriously dent their chances of earning the final Wild Card place in the AFC, but they have one of the more effective Quarter Backs of the season and Philip Rivers is capable of engineering long scoring drives.
As long as Rivers avoids turning the ball over, the Chargers certainly have half a chance to spring the surprise in this one, even with their turgid Defense on the field. Both teams will chew up a lot of clock with their drives so getting more than a field goal start for San Diego is the call.
Carolina Panthers @ Miami Dolphins Pick: Carolina are arguably the hottest team in the NFL at the moment and are coming off two huge wins at the San Francisco 49ers and at home against the New England Patriots, but that might make them a little susceptible for a surprise result in this one.
Carolina are not in a great spot after those big wins and a quick look at their schedule shows the game against Miami is the 'easiest' one they have in a run of around 6 games. The Panthers could potentially overlook the Dolphins after an emotional couple of close wins and they are on a short week.
The absence of Charles Johnson may make it easier for Ryan Tannehill to find time in the pocket to hurt Carolina in the Secondary, while I expect the Dolphins to establish the run in this one.
Establishing the run makes it easier for Tannehill to complete the passes he needs to, while Miami will try and set their pass rush up to hurry Cam Newton and try and force him to make mistakes.
Both teams will look to run the ball, which could shorten the game, and I think the emotional let down spot is too big to ignore and the Dolphins are perhaps being given too many points in this one.
Indianapolis Colts @ Arizona Cardinals Pick: It is the time of the season when you do have to look at spots that teams find themselves in and there is no doubt that the Indianapolis Colts are in a bad spot with this non-Conference game coming between the big games with the Tennessee Titans.
Winning the game next week would secure Indianapolis' place in the Play Offs as they can wrap up the Division and they could easily overlook a game at a non-Conference foe.
Arizona also have a lot of momentum behind them and I think Carson Palmer could have a big game against this Secondary with Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd. The Colts haven't been at their best Defensively in the last three weeks, while the Offense could struggle to sustain drives against the Cardinals Defense.
We saw another NFC West team bamboozle Andrew Luck recently when the St Louis Rams turned the ball over and won at a canter. I don't expect this to be as easy, but I think Arizona will shut down the running game and force Luck to throw to Receivers that have had drops, while also trying to avoid mistakes against a ball-hawking Secondary.
I wish the spread had come under the key number of 3, but I do like the Cardinals to win this game.
Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants Pick: The Dallas Cowboys Defense has been brutal the last few games and they are giving up far too many yards per game on that side of the ball. The loss of Sean Lee is critical to their chances and I think this has swung the edge in the game towards the New York Giants who are rallying in the NFC East with a 4 game winning run.
I still don't fully trust Eli Manning to avoid the mistakes that have plagued his game this season, but the Giants have found a semblance of a running game that keeps the pressure off the Quarter Back. Dallas will find it tough to bring down Andre Brown and Brandon Jacobs without their inspirational Linebacker Lee.
If the Giants can run the ball, Eli will feel he doesn't have to push too much, the reason he has given for the number of Interceptions thrown, while Dallas haven't shown they are capable of slowing down too many teams when throwing the ball.
Tony Romo is capable of leading the Offense in a shoot-out as shown in the game with the Denver Broncos, but he hasn't played that well of late and the pressure will be on him as the Cowboys are unlikely to have a lot of success running the ball.
Romo will at least have Miles Austin back and Dez Bryant healthier, but I think the Giants are going to find a way to win this game and level their record with the Cowboys in the NFC East.
Denver Broncos @ New England Patriots Pick: It is always fascinating to see Tom Brady go up against Peyton Manning, but I do feel the edge is with the Denver Broncos in this one, particularly on the Defensive side of the ball.
Both Offenses should keep the chains moving, but I can see Denver making more stops and perhaps forcing more field goal attempts than the other way around.
Denver create so many match up problems that it is tough to slow down their Offense, although this is coming between two big Divisional games against the Kansas City Chiefs. Tom Brady is also exceptional when coming off a loss and rarely will guide his team to back to back losses.
The gusty wind forecast could also be a problem for the passing game and that would swing the momentum to New England in my opinion as they are better at the ground game of the two teams. However, I think the Broncos are going to make enough plays to win this one and put Denver in a strong position to secure home field advantage in the Play Offs for the second season in a row.
MY PICKS: New Orleans Saints - 9 Points @ 1.92 Coral (2 Units)
Pittsburgh Steelers + 2.5 Points @ 1.95 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers + 8 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Minnesota Vikings + 5.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
New York Jets + 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (1 Unit)
San Diego Chargers + 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Miami Dolphins + 4.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Arizona Cardinals - 3 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
New York Giants - 2.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Denver Broncos - 2.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Pittsburgh Steelers + 2.5 Points @ 1.95 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers + 8 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Minnesota Vikings + 5.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
New York Jets + 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (1 Unit)
San Diego Chargers + 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Miami Dolphins + 4.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Arizona Cardinals - 3 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
New York Giants - 2.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Denver Broncos - 2.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Week 11: 6-2, + 7.59 Units
Week 10: 4-4, + 0.86 Units
Week 9: 2-5, - 4.24 Units
Week 8: 5-3, + 4.64 Units
Week 7: 7-2, + 5.70 Units
Week 6: 2-7, - 8.15 Units
Week 5: 4-4, + 0.35 Units
Week 4: 7-1, + 9.27 Units
Week 3: 3-4-1, - 1.10 Units
Week 2: 6-1, + 6.46 Units
Week 10: 4-4, + 0.86 Units
Week 9: 2-5, - 4.24 Units
Week 8: 5-3, + 4.64 Units
Week 7: 7-2, + 5.70 Units
Week 6: 2-7, - 8.15 Units
Week 5: 4-4, + 0.35 Units
Week 4: 7-1, + 9.27 Units
Week 3: 3-4-1, - 1.10 Units
Week 2: 6-1, + 6.46 Units
Week 1: 5-6, - 3.50 Units
Season 2013: 51-39-1, + 17.88 Units
Season 2012: - 4.78 Units
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