The first day of the World Tour Finals showed how close, yet so far, the picks from the tennis Tour have been over the second half of the season.
Whether it was Tomas Berdych having all the momentum going into the final set against Stanislas Wawrinka, or Juan Martin Del Potro missing the simplest of volleys to put away Richard Gasquet in the second set, things have come really close, but not quite got over the hill.
I don't care how much research you put into a match, at the end of the day you need the element of luck that will help you either get it correct or not. That luck has certainly not been with the picks over the last four months and that has unfortunately made it a tough season all around after another positive start. Let's see if the luck returns on Tuesday as the first round of Group matches are completed with three of the biggest names in men's tennis all in action for the lucky attendees at the O2 in London.
Those going to the tournament should enjoy it while they can after both Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic suggested London have had the World Tour Finals for long enough and that the event should be moved in 2015. The feeling is that they can promote the sport better in places the Tour doesn't frequent, for example areas of South America where the big players usually won't participate.
For example, the South American clay court swing after the Australian Open is generally ignored by the top, top players who will go to Rotterdam and Dubai instead, so seeing the Tour Finals move to Argentina (where Juan Martin Del Potro would be a big draw) or Brazil could be the next potential move.
The O2 will certainly very much like to keep the event, but when two of the biggest names (certainly will be in 2015 as we can assume Roger Federer won't be the force he is now) suggest it is time for a move, the ATP Tour will sit up and listen.
Rafael Nadal win 2-1 v David Ferrer: The first two matches in the O2 have both gone the distance and I have a feeling this will be the third in a row to end that way, although I do think Rafael Nadal can get a bit of revenge for his Semi Final defeat by David Ferrer last week in Paris.
That match saw Ferrer take advantage of a little bit of tiredness that Nadal displayed, while the motivation for the Spanish number 2 was definitely higher than it was for Nadal. With so many points to defend from last season, Ferrer was highly motivated on Saturday, but he may not have had enough time to recover from the Sunday Final and now playing this match on Tuesday afternoon.
This time, Nadal has the higher motivation with the chance to secure the World Number 1 Ranking with a couple of wins here and moving through to the Semi Finals. He will see Ferrer as possibly the biggest obstacle for the chance to get out of this Group and I just feel the extra day off will prove critical for Nadal after a long season.
Indoor hard courts are not Nadal's favourite surface and that is shown by his relatively poor record at the World Tour Finals- I don't think he will win the tournament this week, but I think he can reverse the result from last week.
I would be extremely surprised if it is an easy win though as Ferrer has made the majority of their matches this season competitive, taking a set in 3 of their 5 matches. He won last week to give him the confidence he can do the same this time around, but I think Nadal comes through after 2 and a half hours in three tough sets.
Novak Djokovic win 2-1 v Roger Federer: I have to say that Roger Federer looked about as good as he has in months when he pushed Novak Djokovic all the way in Paris last week and there might also be a feeling that the 17 time Grand Slam Champion missed his chance to end the Serb's current winning streak.
Federer was a set and a break up against Djokovic who looked flat for much of the first half of that match, but it was the latter that turned things around and then went on to win the Paris Masters. How much that has taken out of him is yet to be known, but I do think Djokovic can back up his win over Federer and take the points fro this opening match.
It says a lot more about Federer's year that last week was the first time he played Novak Djokovic this season- obviously draws can keep players apart, but Djokovic is usually around at the business end of tournaments and Federer hasn't done the same for most of the year. However, he may be in a good position to take on Djokovic after Federer admitted he is feeling at his best for the first time in months, while his opponent was playing in Paris up until Sunday.
I still think there is a mental burden to overcome for Federer who hasn't had a big win in a long time now, possibly not since this tournament last season... He might be playing well enough to take a set, but Novak Djokovic could grind him down and win this in three sets.
MY PICKS: Rafael Nadal win 2-1 @ 4.33 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
Novak Djokovic win 2-1 @ 4.33 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
World Tour Finals 2013: 0-2, - 3 Units (3 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)
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