World Tour Finals Day 4 Picks 2013 (November 7th)

It has been a wonderful season for Rafael Nadal and all of his fans and it was confirmed on Wednesday that he will finish the year as the World Number 1... That is a remarkable achievement for a player that had missed all the time on the Tour between Wimbledon 2012 and February 2013, but he has played at an extremely high level all season.

There will be a lot of points for him to defend after the Australian Open, but he should be able to keep clear of Novak Djokovic if Nadal can continue his dominance on the clay courts.

I have to credit Djokovic for pushing Nadal all the way considering he has won one Grand Slam and has lost a lot of big matches including the US Open Final. Since then, the Serb has been on a hot streak and there is a feeling that he has felt more comfortable in the role of having someone to chase in the Rankings rather than being closed down as he was by Nadal for much of the season.

The Australian Open has been Djokovic's domain over the last few years and he will be looking to end this week on a high by winning the tournament for the second year in a row to really set a marker down for next season . He will then go into Melbourne Park as the favourite and he might start eating into the Nadal points lead after that with confidence that he could perhaps take the French Open crown that he has set his heart on.

With Andy Murray to return to the mix and the likes of Roger Federer and Juan Martin Del Potro hoping to have big years, men's tennis continues to look like it is in a golden period moving through to 2014.


Roger Federer - 3.5 games v Richard Gasquet: Group B was clearly going to be a tough section for Roger Federer to negotiate with both Novak Djokovic and Juan Martin Del Potro to face before the Semi Finals and he is already in a 'must win' situation.

Federer would have been vastly disappointed he didn't complete the win over Novak Djokovic in the first round of matches considering he won the second set and seemed to have all the momentum on his side. That is the second time in under a week that he was beaten by Djokovic despite looking like he was in a position to win the match.

The question now becomes how will he react to losing twice to the World Number 2 in quick succession, but he is playing an opponent that might not have the mental strength to take out Federer. Richard Gasquet has won 2 of his 12 matches against Federer, but he too is off a vastly disappointing defeat to Juan Martin Del Potro and it will be interesting to see his reaction to that defeat.

I have no doubt that this season is as vulnerable as Federer has looked on a tennis court since before he won his first Grand Slam title in 2003, but I still think he has enough in the tank to see off Gasquet. Federer has to find a better edge between his aggression and getting into rallies, but I believe he will have the more chances to break serve and I do think he can set up a clash with Juan Martin Del Potro that will determine who makes it through to the Semi Finals.

Federer has won the two previous matches against Gasquet on an indoor hard court without dropping a set and I think he can do something similar in this one. I look for him to come through 64, 64 and earn the cover.


Novak Djokovic win 2-1 v Juan Martin Del Potro: Novak Djokovic looked a little lethargic in the second set of his win over Roger Federer, but he found reserves of strength to keep his winning run intact since his loss in the US Open Final.

He might need the same reserves to see off one of the best indoor hard court players on the Tour in Juan Martin Del Potro, but there were also times in his win over Richard Gasquet that the big man looked a little tired and slow.

You can't really tell from the body language as to how Del Potro is really feeling, while these two have had some real close matches in recent months. I really wouldn't be surprised if we see another three setter between two players that could very easily be contesting the Final on Monday and I am expecting to see a quality match as both have had at least a couple of days to rest between matches.

I just have a feeling that Djokovic is playing with a lot of belief that he won't lose at the moment and that might be the difference between the two players. Djokovic is the better returner of serve and I can see that being the main reason he is able to come through, but it would be no surprise to me if the first two sets are shared with Del Potro more than capable of stealing a break of serve and holding on to take a set.

MY PICKS: Roger Federer - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic win 2-1 @ 4.33 William Hill (1 Unit)

World Tour Finals Update: 2-4, - 0.47 Units (9 Units Staked, - 5.22% Yield)