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Wednesday, 6 November 2013

World Tour Finals Day 3 Picks 2013 (November 6th)

The first round robin matches are in the books at the World Tour Finals, but it is a quick turnaround for Rafael Nadal and David Ferrer who won't have a day of rest between matches as their opponents will.

It will be interesting to see if that gives Stanislas Wawrinka and Tomas Berdych a chance to overcome opponents that have dominated the head to head. I do think one of the players has a chance to win their match, but the other could go the same way as previous matches have ended.

Rafael Nadal - 4.5 game v Stanislas Wawrinka: Stanislas Wawrinka's win over Tomas Berdych has given him a great platform to go through to the Semi Finals in his debut appearance at the World Tour Finals, but this could be a tough second match for him.

I wasn't sure if Rafael Nadal was feeling the strain of a long season after his performance in Paris last week, but he dominated his first match against David Ferrer, albeit against a tired opponent.

The match up is a good one for Nadal simply because his best shot is going into Wawrinka's exceptional one-handed backhand... No matter how well Wawrinka plays that shot, Nadal's spin and power certainly pushes the Swiss man to the back of the court and it is a very difficult place to consistently win points against someone like the Spaniard.

Nadal's backhand is also a little more solid than Wawrinka's forehand and this match will come down to whether Wawrinka can serve well enough to keep himself in control of the points on that side of the court.

There is a chance that Wawrinka could also decide to keep some energy in reserve if he loses the first set in this match and that could give Nadal the chance to run away with the second, especially as Nadal is not the kind of player that slackens off on any point.

Wawrinka may keep this close if he serves very well, but I think Nadal eventually comes through 64, 62.

Tomas Berdych v David Ferrer: David Ferrer has won 8 of the 11 matches against Tomas Berdych including 3 out of 4 matches on an indoor hard court. He beat Berdych from a set down in Paris last week, but Berdych can point to the fact that he has won their sole match at this tournament a couple of years ago.

Ferrer looked knackered mentally and physically in his loss to Rafael Nadal and made far too many mistakes in that match, but he will definitely make this closer if he can just tone those downs. Some of the misses were very close to the lines so it won't take a lot of adjustments for him to win those points.

He does match up well with Berdych as he can diffuse the big weapons that the Czech player brings to the court, but I don't know how he is feeling physically after a long season which has been back loaded somewhat as he has played the most matches of the players in London since the US Open.

Berdych himself will think he has to be a little more efficient on break point chances if he is going to win this match after failing to break Stanislas Wawrinka in the first match here. The match in Paris and the match in London a couple of years ago were both close and it will take a point here and there to separate the players in my opinion.

I just have this feeling that Ferrer doesn't have a lot left in the tank and if Berdych can at least split the first two sets, he might be able to outlast a player that has been known for his stamina reserves but who might have left too much on the court in Paris last week.

MY PICKS: Rafael Nadal - 4.5 Games @ 2.17 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Tomas Berdych @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)

World Tour Finals Update: 1-3, - 0.67 Units (5 Units Staked, - 13.4% Yield)

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