There are a couple of teams that you have to assume will make the post-season from the starts they have made, but there is plenty of intrigue to keep fans watching as we get into the final seven weeks of the regular season.
Week 10 Thoughts
Miami's off-field issues taking its toll on-field: Ask my friends and they will tell you that I was saying Tampa Bay would beat Miami all week simply because of the off-field issues at the Dolphins which is encompassing this once proud franchise.
The 3-0 start to the season has been long forgotten and even being just a game out of the Wild Card race in the AFC is not enough to keep the fans excited after the whole Jonathan Martin-Ritchie Incognito issue has blown up.
There are no signs that this issue is going to be resolved soon and you could see how it has affected the Dolphins after watching them sleep-walk through the first half of their loss to Tampa Bay. Miami may still have won that game if they could have held on to their 19-15 lead going into the final quarter, but there are no big question marks about a number of personnel at the team.
With Stephen Ross appointing a five man team, including Tony Dungy, Dan Marino and Jason Taylor, to overlook the workings of the locker room culture at Miami, it puts pressure on Jeff Ireland as General Manager and Joe Philbin as Head Coach.
I wouldn't be surprised if both of those men are no longer employed by Miami at the end of the season, while I don't think either Martin or Incognito play for the Dolphins again either. It's a sad state of affairs for a team that had offered their fans so much promise for the new season after a number of sub-par years.
Detroit Lions 2008 can 'celebrate': The Detroit Lions 2008 are the only team in the NFL that has lost all 16 games they have played in a regular season and they are going to keep that record thanks to Jacksonville and Tampa Bay both winning this week.
I really thought the Jaguars could have matched that record, but they surprised Tennessee this week after taking advantage of sloppy play from the home team. After seeing that game though, it does make me 'appreciate' how bad the Lions of 2008 really were.
Detroit Lions 2013 are going places: Those dark days are almost long forgotten by the fans these days, especially after seeing the current crop of Lions take control of the NFC North with a sweep of the Chicago Bears on Sunday.
With Jay Cutler knocked out for an unknown time and Green Bay struggling and down to their third string Quarter Back, the Lions are the favourites to win the North now, although they will be hoping for a little bit more luck to take complete control.
That bit of luck is concerning Aaron Rodgers who has been making some comments about feeling better- Detroit would love for him to miss the Thanksgiving Day game between the teams, where the Lions could potentially open a 2 game lead over the Packers and also move to 4-1 within the Division with only one more game against Minnesota to come.
A one game lead with seven weeks left is no total position of strength, but Detroit will be very happy with the position they find themselves in.
Carolina Panthers the darkest of dark horses: In recent weeks, the Carolina Panthers have really picked up their game which has seen them win 5 games in a row... I personally wasn't convinced about them until this weekend when they beat the San Francisco 49ers on the road, even if the injury to Vernon Davis changed the momentum of that game.
Carolina can run the ball effectively and have a Defense that doesn't give up much either through the air or on the ground... Those are a couple of attributes that will work very well come January and the Play Offs.
Cam Newton is also capable of making some big plays with his arm and he has a couple of Receivers that will certainly help him on that front and they are a team playing with real confidence- the question is whether they can carry that momentum on for the rest of the season.
I thought a Wild Card place is within their grasp, but the NFC South is still very much up for grabs too as the Panthers trail New Orleans by one game. They meet the Saints twice down the stretch and splitting those games 1-1 with the rest of the schedule that the two teams have to face would give the Panthers the edge to win the Division as far as I am concerned and possibly even getting a bye into the Divisional Round of the Play Offs.
Carolina may just be the biggest challenger to Seattle in the NFC this season.
Top Ten
1) Kansas City Chiefs (9-0): A big test for the Chiefs in the next few weeks as they face Denver twice in games that could decide home field advantage throughout the Play Offs.
2) Seattle Seahawks (9-1): The imminent return of Percy Harvin makes them more dangerous on Offense, although the 'Legion of Boom' is a little banged up.
3) Denver Broncos (8-1): Peyton Manning escaped serious injury on Sunday, but both ankles are very weak and he is one hit away from missing time.
4) New Orleans Saints (7-2): Battered the Cowboys and tough to beat in the Superdome.
5) New England Patriots (7-2): Coming off a bye and face a big test in Carolina who are playing as good as anybody right now.
6) Carolina Panthers (6-3): Maybe playing the best football in the NFL.
7) Detroit Lions (6-3): In control of the NFC North after sweeping the Bears.
8) San Francisco 49ers (6-3): Losing Vernon Davis hurt Colin Kaepernick badly on Sunday, while losing ground in the NFC West may mean a Wild Card at best for the reigning NFC Champions.
9) Indianapolis Colts (6-3): That was a real disappointing performance from the Colts on Sunday, but they have control of the AFC South and can really put some distance between themselves and their chasing pack on Thursday Night Football.
10) Arizona Cardinals (5-4): This is a team with momentum on their side and a real chance to get into the Wild Card mix in the coming weeks.
Bottom Five
32) Jacksonville Jaguars (1-8): They did it!! They won a game, and Jacksonville will not go winless... Still won't be moving them out of the this position though because...
31) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-8): ... the only other winless team going into Week 10 also won with Tampa Bay knocking off Miami.
30) Houston Texans (2-7): It has been a horrific season for the Texans, but they will have some good news this week with the likely return of Gary Kubiak to the sidelines.
29) Minnesota Vikings (2-7): Still not sure how Minnesota beat Washington despite getting outgained, turning the ball over more times and losing time of possession?
28) Oakland Raiders (3-6): The Raiders are not playing well the last two weeks and slip into the bottom five of my rankings again.
Week 11 Picks
It was an up and down week in Week 10, but I came out of it the other side with a slight profit on the week to bring the season totals back up to double digits. The last two weeks haven't been the best, but the season remains in a good place and hopefully that can be built upon the rest of the way.
Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans Pick: One of the results really surprised me last weekend, but the other was less of a big issue as far as I was concerned. I didn't see Tennessee's loss to Jacksonville coming in any way, although they decided to destroy their own chances with a number of turnovers in their own half and a fumble at the end of the game that was returned for a Touchdown.
On the other hand, it was easy to guess that Indianapolis would perhaps overlook the Rams, especially as a big favourite with this more important game to come.
With that in mind, I expect a much better effort from the Colts this week as they may just have been focusing on the game that could almost certainly give them the AFC South and a place in the Play Offs for the second year in a row with Andrew Luck at Quarter Back.
I expect Luck is going to recover from the worst game of his NFL career, but he has to start better to give the Colts a chance. The last two games have seen Indianapolis in a big hole by half time as they came off their bye, which is a real surprise, but the loss of Reggie Wayne is obviously big as is the lack of running from Trent Richardson.
This could be the week that Richardson at least gets going somewhat, while I also trust Luck to look after the ball a lot better than Ryan Fitzpatrick.
Fitzpatrick can be a frustrating Quarter Back to watch as he can seem to take teams up and down the field, but will then throw a critical mistake that will cost his team the chance of winning. Last week it was his fumble that secured the loss to the Jaguars and I wouldn't be surprised if he makes a mistake that lets the Colts come through.
The line looks awfully trappy, but I have to back the Colts at under the key number of 3 to win this game on the road and open up a big lead in the AFC South.
New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills Pick: These two teams seem to mirror one another on both sides of the ball, but I do think the New York Jets are better at stopping the run and I think Geno Smith can make more plays than EJ Manuel in the battle of the rookies.
I just feel that Rex Ryan can set up his Defense in a way to bamboozle the rookie at Quarter Back and he would have been preparing for this game for two weeks. That is a lot of time to get a good game plan in place and I expect Ryan to have taken advantage of that.
The Jets have dominated the recent games in the series against Buffalo, while the Bills possibly missing Stevie Johnson and Robert Woods makes it harder for them to move the chains. If New York shut down the run game as they have for much of the season, it is hard to see the Bills sustain enough drives to win and I like the Jets to come off their bye and move into a strong position for the AFC Wild Card race and also stay within touching distance of the New England Patriots for the East title.
Washington Redskins @ Philadelphia Eagles Pick: I know exactly how well Nick Foles has been playing as a Fantasy Football owner of his, but that shouldn't fool you into thinking he has been playing lights out football. He has been helped a lot by the last two Defenses he has faced, although Washington may become the latest to fail to stop him having a big game.
The Redskins can get pressure up front, and that will be an issue with Jason Peters out of the Offensive Line, but the Secondary has been burned and couldn't stop Christian Ponder a week ago despite having a 13 point lead to defend.
LeSean McCoy should also have a decent game this week, but Philadelphia have to also play against a long home losing run and Washington have been improving as the season has gone on. I still don't know how they blew their game at Minnesota last week which would have had them in the mix in the NFC East, but I still think Robert Griffin III can have enough success in this one to make it competitive.
As bad as Washington have played against the pass, Philadelphia have been worse and have only looked better the last two weeks because of the Quarter Backs they have played. RG3 should have more success especially if they can establish Alfred Morris too and this looks like too many points to be giving up for Philadelphia in what could be a high-scoring game.
Arizona Cardinals @ Jacksonville Jaguars Pick: I can't say that I feel that happy about backing a team that is having to travel across the country for an early kick off, but the Arizona Cardinals should become the latest team to beat the Jacksonville Jaguars by double digits unless lightning strikes twice.
I was as surprised as most that the Jaguars beat the Tennessee Titans last week, but they did catch lightning in a bottle in that game by creating a number of turnovers in the Tennessee half of the field that gave them short fields to work with.
The fact that the Jaguars were outgained by 150 yards doesn't bode well for them against a Defense that is playing at a decent level and is very capable of turning the ball over themselves. I can see Arizona finding a Defensive score in this game, whether it is an Interception or a fumble returned for a Touchdown and I do think Arizona are going to win this game.
Carson Palmer has to avoid the mistakes that have blighted his game this season, but he should have a cleaner pocket to work with and is a capable Quarter Back if given time to break down Defenses. It was an emotional win for Jacksonville last week and it is entirely possible they overlook a non-Conference opponent with another Divisional game on deck.
It is a lot of points, perhaps too much to be asking Arizona to surpass, but Jacksonville's 8 defeats have come by double digits and this one should follow suit.
San Diego Chargers @ Miami Dolphins Pick: It has been a terrible time for the Miami Dolphins and having a short week to prepare for this game is not ideal, but they could be in a good spot against a Chargers team that is travelling across the country and is in between games against Denver and Kansas City.
It is an important game for San Diego, especially when it comes to the Wild Card race in the AFC, but coming off an emotional loss against the Broncos is going to be tough to recover from.
Miami need to get the running game going if they are going to win this one after totalling a huge TWO yards against Tampa Bay on Monday Night Football. San Diego's Defense has struggled against the run and pass this season so I do expect a bounce back game from Lamar Miller and Ryan Tannehill.
The big question will be if Miami can stop San Diego sustaining drives- if Mike James hadn't been injured on Monday, he was set to have a big game running the ball and Danny Woodhead and Ryan Mathews could pick up where he had seemingly looked like going.
Philip Rivers has been methodical in creating long, scoring drives for the Chargers, but the Dolphins are in a spot to get back into the Play Off discussion here.
Minnesota Vikings @ Seattle Seahawks Pick: Good teams going into their bye weeks usually come out with a big performance and Seattle certainly are capable of doing the same as they look to maintain their position as the Number 1 seed in the NFC.
Returning pieces to the Offense make them an even more dangerous team going forward and they are getting healthier at the right time. Percy Harvin will want to put in a big performance against his old team and he is a threat on kick returns, punt returns and in the Offense, and I would expect him to have some real chances against a Secondary that has struggled.
The Vikings will keep this interesting if they can keep the score close as Adrian Peterson should have the ability to pound the ball on the ground with success. However, the Quarter Back, whoever it may be, will be under a lot of pressure if he is forced to throw to stay in the game and that could lead to mistakes and Seattle pulling away.
Seattle laid an egg the last time they were big home favourites against Tampa Bay, but I like them to win this one big.
Green Bay Packers @ New York Giants Pick: I would definitely keep an eye on the active list and make sure Aaron Rodgers is definitely not back this week, but he has been getting closer to returning for Green Bay and I would not be surprised if he is ready to go next week.
This is an important game for both teams, but the edge at Quarter Back goes to Eli Manning and I think the Giants have a lot of momentum behind them as they get ready to take on the Dallas Cowboys next week in a huge Divisional game.
That game would lose some of it's importance for New York if they fail to win this one and I don't think they fall here. The Green Bay Packers Secondary made big mistakes last week and those can haunt a team, especially without their Quarter Back who is capable of putting a lot of points on the board.
At the start of the week, I would have said the Giants are laying too many points, but the spread as come down to a reasonable level and I expect New York to find a way to roll.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos Pick: I know the Kansas City Chiefs are the public underdogs this week, but I can't help think Peyton Manning and this Offense is going to score too many points for them to keep up in this one.
Andy Reid had been unbeaten coming off a bye as Head Coach before last season, but he usually gets a good gameplan in place when he has time to prepare, while there are also some doubts about Manning's health.
The Offensive Line is going to have to protect Manning better than they have the last few games, particularly against this fierce pass rush, but I still expect the Quarter Back to utilise the weapons he has at his disposal. My question then becomes can Kansas City do something on Offense where they can keep up with the scoring that the Broncos certainly can do?
As well as the Defense has played, Kansas City have failed to score more than 24 points the last four games and the Offensive Line has struggled at times to protect Alex Smith. Relying on long drives that result in Field Goals won't cut it in this one and I can see the Broncos making it very difficult for the Chiefs to come back from a large deficit and I like Denver to go on and win this one and cover.
MY PICKS: Indianapolis Colts - 2.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
New York Jets - 2 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Washington Redskins + 4.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Arizona Cardinals - 8 Points @ 1.92 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Miami Dolphins + 1 Point @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Seattle Seahawks - 12 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
New York Giants - 4 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Denver Broncos - 7.5 Points @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans Pick: One of the results really surprised me last weekend, but the other was less of a big issue as far as I was concerned. I didn't see Tennessee's loss to Jacksonville coming in any way, although they decided to destroy their own chances with a number of turnovers in their own half and a fumble at the end of the game that was returned for a Touchdown.
On the other hand, it was easy to guess that Indianapolis would perhaps overlook the Rams, especially as a big favourite with this more important game to come.
With that in mind, I expect a much better effort from the Colts this week as they may just have been focusing on the game that could almost certainly give them the AFC South and a place in the Play Offs for the second year in a row with Andrew Luck at Quarter Back.
I expect Luck is going to recover from the worst game of his NFL career, but he has to start better to give the Colts a chance. The last two games have seen Indianapolis in a big hole by half time as they came off their bye, which is a real surprise, but the loss of Reggie Wayne is obviously big as is the lack of running from Trent Richardson.
This could be the week that Richardson at least gets going somewhat, while I also trust Luck to look after the ball a lot better than Ryan Fitzpatrick.
Fitzpatrick can be a frustrating Quarter Back to watch as he can seem to take teams up and down the field, but will then throw a critical mistake that will cost his team the chance of winning. Last week it was his fumble that secured the loss to the Jaguars and I wouldn't be surprised if he makes a mistake that lets the Colts come through.
The line looks awfully trappy, but I have to back the Colts at under the key number of 3 to win this game on the road and open up a big lead in the AFC South.
New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills Pick: These two teams seem to mirror one another on both sides of the ball, but I do think the New York Jets are better at stopping the run and I think Geno Smith can make more plays than EJ Manuel in the battle of the rookies.
I just feel that Rex Ryan can set up his Defense in a way to bamboozle the rookie at Quarter Back and he would have been preparing for this game for two weeks. That is a lot of time to get a good game plan in place and I expect Ryan to have taken advantage of that.
The Jets have dominated the recent games in the series against Buffalo, while the Bills possibly missing Stevie Johnson and Robert Woods makes it harder for them to move the chains. If New York shut down the run game as they have for much of the season, it is hard to see the Bills sustain enough drives to win and I like the Jets to come off their bye and move into a strong position for the AFC Wild Card race and also stay within touching distance of the New England Patriots for the East title.
Washington Redskins @ Philadelphia Eagles Pick: I know exactly how well Nick Foles has been playing as a Fantasy Football owner of his, but that shouldn't fool you into thinking he has been playing lights out football. He has been helped a lot by the last two Defenses he has faced, although Washington may become the latest to fail to stop him having a big game.
The Redskins can get pressure up front, and that will be an issue with Jason Peters out of the Offensive Line, but the Secondary has been burned and couldn't stop Christian Ponder a week ago despite having a 13 point lead to defend.
LeSean McCoy should also have a decent game this week, but Philadelphia have to also play against a long home losing run and Washington have been improving as the season has gone on. I still don't know how they blew their game at Minnesota last week which would have had them in the mix in the NFC East, but I still think Robert Griffin III can have enough success in this one to make it competitive.
As bad as Washington have played against the pass, Philadelphia have been worse and have only looked better the last two weeks because of the Quarter Backs they have played. RG3 should have more success especially if they can establish Alfred Morris too and this looks like too many points to be giving up for Philadelphia in what could be a high-scoring game.
Arizona Cardinals @ Jacksonville Jaguars Pick: I can't say that I feel that happy about backing a team that is having to travel across the country for an early kick off, but the Arizona Cardinals should become the latest team to beat the Jacksonville Jaguars by double digits unless lightning strikes twice.
I was as surprised as most that the Jaguars beat the Tennessee Titans last week, but they did catch lightning in a bottle in that game by creating a number of turnovers in the Tennessee half of the field that gave them short fields to work with.
The fact that the Jaguars were outgained by 150 yards doesn't bode well for them against a Defense that is playing at a decent level and is very capable of turning the ball over themselves. I can see Arizona finding a Defensive score in this game, whether it is an Interception or a fumble returned for a Touchdown and I do think Arizona are going to win this game.
Carson Palmer has to avoid the mistakes that have blighted his game this season, but he should have a cleaner pocket to work with and is a capable Quarter Back if given time to break down Defenses. It was an emotional win for Jacksonville last week and it is entirely possible they overlook a non-Conference opponent with another Divisional game on deck.
It is a lot of points, perhaps too much to be asking Arizona to surpass, but Jacksonville's 8 defeats have come by double digits and this one should follow suit.
San Diego Chargers @ Miami Dolphins Pick: It has been a terrible time for the Miami Dolphins and having a short week to prepare for this game is not ideal, but they could be in a good spot against a Chargers team that is travelling across the country and is in between games against Denver and Kansas City.
It is an important game for San Diego, especially when it comes to the Wild Card race in the AFC, but coming off an emotional loss against the Broncos is going to be tough to recover from.
Miami need to get the running game going if they are going to win this one after totalling a huge TWO yards against Tampa Bay on Monday Night Football. San Diego's Defense has struggled against the run and pass this season so I do expect a bounce back game from Lamar Miller and Ryan Tannehill.
The big question will be if Miami can stop San Diego sustaining drives- if Mike James hadn't been injured on Monday, he was set to have a big game running the ball and Danny Woodhead and Ryan Mathews could pick up where he had seemingly looked like going.
Philip Rivers has been methodical in creating long, scoring drives for the Chargers, but the Dolphins are in a spot to get back into the Play Off discussion here.
Minnesota Vikings @ Seattle Seahawks Pick: Good teams going into their bye weeks usually come out with a big performance and Seattle certainly are capable of doing the same as they look to maintain their position as the Number 1 seed in the NFC.
Returning pieces to the Offense make them an even more dangerous team going forward and they are getting healthier at the right time. Percy Harvin will want to put in a big performance against his old team and he is a threat on kick returns, punt returns and in the Offense, and I would expect him to have some real chances against a Secondary that has struggled.
The Vikings will keep this interesting if they can keep the score close as Adrian Peterson should have the ability to pound the ball on the ground with success. However, the Quarter Back, whoever it may be, will be under a lot of pressure if he is forced to throw to stay in the game and that could lead to mistakes and Seattle pulling away.
Seattle laid an egg the last time they were big home favourites against Tampa Bay, but I like them to win this one big.
Green Bay Packers @ New York Giants Pick: I would definitely keep an eye on the active list and make sure Aaron Rodgers is definitely not back this week, but he has been getting closer to returning for Green Bay and I would not be surprised if he is ready to go next week.
This is an important game for both teams, but the edge at Quarter Back goes to Eli Manning and I think the Giants have a lot of momentum behind them as they get ready to take on the Dallas Cowboys next week in a huge Divisional game.
That game would lose some of it's importance for New York if they fail to win this one and I don't think they fall here. The Green Bay Packers Secondary made big mistakes last week and those can haunt a team, especially without their Quarter Back who is capable of putting a lot of points on the board.
At the start of the week, I would have said the Giants are laying too many points, but the spread as come down to a reasonable level and I expect New York to find a way to roll.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos Pick: I know the Kansas City Chiefs are the public underdogs this week, but I can't help think Peyton Manning and this Offense is going to score too many points for them to keep up in this one.
Andy Reid had been unbeaten coming off a bye as Head Coach before last season, but he usually gets a good gameplan in place when he has time to prepare, while there are also some doubts about Manning's health.
The Offensive Line is going to have to protect Manning better than they have the last few games, particularly against this fierce pass rush, but I still expect the Quarter Back to utilise the weapons he has at his disposal. My question then becomes can Kansas City do something on Offense where they can keep up with the scoring that the Broncos certainly can do?
As well as the Defense has played, Kansas City have failed to score more than 24 points the last four games and the Offensive Line has struggled at times to protect Alex Smith. Relying on long drives that result in Field Goals won't cut it in this one and I can see the Broncos making it very difficult for the Chiefs to come back from a large deficit and I like Denver to go on and win this one and cover.
MY PICKS: Indianapolis Colts - 2.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
New York Jets - 2 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Washington Redskins + 4.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Arizona Cardinals - 8 Points @ 1.92 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Miami Dolphins + 1 Point @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Seattle Seahawks - 12 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
New York Giants - 4 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Denver Broncos - 7.5 Points @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Week 10: 4-4, + 0.86 Units
Week 9: 2-5, - 4.24 Units
Week 8: 5-3, + 4.64 Units
Week 7: 7-2, + 5.70 Units
Week 6: 2-7, - 8.15 Units
Week 5: 4-4, + 0.35 Units
Week 4: 7-1, + 9.27 Units
Week 3: 3-4-1, - 1.10 Units
Week 2: 6-1, + 6.46 Units
Week 9: 2-5, - 4.24 Units
Week 8: 5-3, + 4.64 Units
Week 7: 7-2, + 5.70 Units
Week 6: 2-7, - 8.15 Units
Week 5: 4-4, + 0.35 Units
Week 4: 7-1, + 9.27 Units
Week 3: 3-4-1, - 1.10 Units
Week 2: 6-1, + 6.46 Units
Week 1: 5-6, - 3.50 Units
Season 2013: 45-37-1, + 10.29 Units
Season 2012: - 4.78 Units
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