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Monday, 11 November 2013

World Tour Finals- Rafael Nadal v Novak Djokovic Pick 2013 (November 11th)

So this is it... The final tournament of the season, not including the Davis Cup, is going to be concluded on Monday night and it is a fitting end to the 2013 campaign that the two best players in the world can continue their rivalry.

I know a lot of people are big Andy Murray fans, but Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal are going to be the leading contenders to sweep the Grand Slam titles on offer going into 2014, as long as both can steer clear of injury, and this match could already be seen as laying down a marker for the coming season.

The off-season in tennis is a little under two months, but I don't think these two will be playing too many matches ahead of the first Grand Slam of 2014 at the Australian Open so the winner of this match will feel they have an edge going into that tournament. Melbourne Park has been Djokovic's best Grand Slam to date and he will likely go off as the favourite to win that event, but a win for Nadal in this Final may close that gap and have the Spaniard as the man to beat.

Novak Djokovic - 2.5 games v Rafael Nadal: The indoor hard courts are clearly not the favourite surface of Rafael Nadal, but he has made it through to the Final here in London for a second time and also has split two previous matches against Novak Djokovic at the event in the O2 Arena.

However, the edge has to be given to Djokovic in this match as he is the defending Champion here and has ended the season on a brilliant run of form with the real intention of setting out his stall for the 2014 season that will begin in a couple of months time.

It is Nadal that has been dominating this head to head over the last 18 months, winning 6 of 7 including the Final of the French Open 2012, the Semi Final at the same event in June and also the US Open Final back in September. This has all come about after losing 7 straight matches to Djokovic, but the Serb did turn the tables with a routine straight sets win over Nadal at the Shanghai Masters.

Both have played good tennis so far this week and I do anticipate this being a good Final to watch, but I think the court does give Djokovic the edge... I have noticed that Nadal's forehand has not reared up as much as normal and that shouldn't be a big issue for Djokovic, while I also feel the latter has been serving a little more effectively.

Djokovic's big edge may come from the second serve as I expect him to play similar to yesterday and really try and attack that serve and keep Nadal under pressure. With the way he has been returning, I would expect Djokovic to have success with that tactic and I feel he can get a measure of revenge for a couple of really big losses against Nadal earlier this season.

It will be close and it will be tense, but Djokovic should come through 63, 76 in my opinion, although there is a chance that Nadal can push this into three sets.

MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 2.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)

World Tour Finals Update: 7-7, + 7.16 Units (22 Units Staked, + 32.55% Yield)

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