It could be a big problem for the Packers going forward without their Quarter Back for the foreseeable future and highlights the problems in picking teams to win the Super Bowl before December. Many times I have been asked who I think will win the Vince Lombardi Trophy before the season starts and so often I have replied that it will depend on which team looks in the best shape in December as things change so quickly in the NFL.
It doesn't matter how well a team is playing in September/October, but it is about putting things together in December and January if teams want to reach the Super Bowl and Rodgers' injury was another reminder of what can happen in any series on an NFL field.
Week 9 Thoughts
Turmoil in Miami: As a Miami Dolphins fan, where else could I begin than with all the crazy goings on at the Dolphins in regards to the Jonathan Martin-Richie Incognito issue.
Both players have left the club at the moment as investigations continue to clear up what was going on between two players that have been described as 'best friends' by other members of the team and this is clearly something that goes very deep as Jeff Ireland's name has been brought into the issue.
Some of the players have also had their say and it is clear that they are coming down, for the most part, on the side of Incognito in what is becoming a sideshow that could easily derail all the promise of the season that Miami had coming in.
I don't know what to believe- at first it seemed like Martin was the victim, but more and more things are coming out which suggests Incognito may not to be to blame as much as people have quickly labelled him as a 'racist' and 'bully'. Jeff Ireland could be dragged down and finally removed as General Manager if it comes to light that he knew Martin was feeling uncomfortable, especially with his suggestion being to 'punch (Incognito) in the mouth'.
This is an ugly situation which is still coming to light, but it has come at a terrible time for a Miami team that is 4-4 and very much in a Wild Card race in the AFC. I am looking forward to the investigator's report as to what actually happened, but it is a story that is bothering Dolphins fans massively and has wiped out all of the positives they had this season.
Aaron Rodgers' absence could spell big trouble for the Green Bay Packers: No one really knows how long Aaron Rodgers is going to be absent, but even missing three to four weeks could put the Packers in a very difficult spot to make the Play Offs.
That is down to them playing in a very difficult NFC North Division where their rivals, the Chicago Bears and Detroit Lions, could both pull away from the Packers before Rodgers is cleared to get back on the field.
I don't think anyone is convinced about Seneca Wallace, but the Green Bay faithful can at least point to a manageable schedule that should keep them in contention before Rodgers returns. They have games against teams like Philadelphia, the New York Giants, Minnesota and Atlanta in the next five weeks, but a Thanksgiving Day game at Detroit looks like one Green Bay will likely drop.
If Green Bay can go 3-2 at least to improve to 8-5 in the next five weeks, they will still have a chance of making the Play Offs, but anything less could see Detroit and Chicago move clear in the Division and put the Packers out of contention before Rodgers returns.
There is a lot of life left in the NFC East: I have said for a while that an 8-8 record may win the NFC East this season and that was also my projection at the start of the season, but which of the four teams will get to that number of wins first is anyone's guess.
The Giants were on a bye last week, but remain just 2.5 games behind the Dallas Cowboys in first place, while Washington and Philadelphia both won in Week 9 to keep tabs on the Cowboys.
The best thing is there are still a lot of Divisional games to go and it would take a much braver person than me to predict the winner of the Division... I think we are going to have a lot of fun finding out though.
New Orleans need to wrap up the Number 1 or Number 2 seed in the NFC: I am a huge fan of Drew Brees and that has led to me having a soft spot for the New Orleans Saints, but this team has to improve dramatically on the road, particularly outdoors.
The Super Bowl is in New York this year, but the Jets just handled the Saints on that turf, while New England also have a home win against them this season. New Orleans remain dominant at home, but they are only 2-2 on the road and definitely don't look as comfortable playing outdoors.
Unfortunately they will have to win in Seattle if they are to take the Number 1 seed away, but will look to kick on and win the NFC South and take the Number 2 seed to at least give them a realistic chance of getting into the Championship game in this Conference.
Right now, I wouldn't favour the Saints to find a win in Seattle or San Francisco, so even getting to the Super Bowl is a big ask, but if New Orleans can somehow steal home field advantage, there won't be too many teams that would want to come through the Superdome for a Super Bowl shot either.
Top Five
1) Kansas City Chiefs (9-0): The Chiefs get fortunate again this week, but deserve this spot as the only unbeaten team in the NFL... Next game is the Broncos after the bye though and a real test of their credentials.
2) Denver Broncos (7-1): Denver fans will be wishing John Fox the best after he suffered a heart scare in the bye week and also hoping Peyton Manning is much healthier than he was when he went into the bye.
3) Seattle Sewhawks (8-1): Seattle somehow escaped with a win over Tampa Bay, but they haven't looked convincing the last two weeks.
4) New England Patriots (7-2): What Offensive problems?
5) San Francisco 49ers (6-2): Another team coming off a bye, but getting healthier all the time and primed to make a run all the way to New York in February.
Bottom Five
32) Jacksonville Jaguars (0-8): I really though this team had seen their season hit the lowest point already, but Justin Blackmon's suspension for the rest of the year means Jaguars will likely wrap up Number 1 pick in the Draft.
31) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-8): They haven't given up on Greg Schiano and I really feel a win is not far away.
30) Minnesota Vikings (1-7): Took a heartbreaking loss in Dallas a few days ago and will be tough for this team to recover.
29) Pittsburgh Steelers (2-6): They looked old and slow as New England did what they liked on Offense and I think the Steelers are officially in rebuilding mode.
28) Atlanta Falcons (2-6): An ugly beat down at the hands of Divisional rivals Carolina and you can officially stick a fork in this team.
Week 10 Picks
Week 9 started off in a disappointing fashion for the picks, but it was a good win for the fan in me, and a recovery on Sunday was quickly erased by Baltimore and Seattle's poor performances. It could still have been a winning week except for the Green Bay failure to cover, but I would never have laid ten points on Seneca Wallace and the injury to Aaron Rodgers seemed to deflate everyone.
Still, it could be worse and it has still been a strong season so far as we have gone beyond the half way stage. This week looks another tough one when trying to determine the intangibles and hopefully I can find the right teams to back and avoid.
Washington Redskins @ Minnesota Vikings Pick: As I said above, the Minnesota Vikings have to be heartbroken in the manner they lost against Dallas on Sunday and it may take a little time for them to get up for this game against the Washington Redskins.
Washington themselves are coming off an emotional game where they managed to keep San Diego out of the End Zone despite the Chargers having a 1st and Goal from the 1 yard line and then winning that one in overtime, but there is a feeling in the Redskins camp that they could potentially make a run similar to last year when they won the NFC East Division.
A short week won't help either team, but I am not sure how focused the Vikings will be on the Redskins considering this game fits between big games against the best of the NFC and Minnesota are not in the running for a Play Off spot. I expect they will look to Adrian Peterson to spark them again and he should find plenty of room to pick up large chunks of yardage on the ground, but I don't have the same faith in Christian Ponder making the plays he needs to, especially with likely pressure in his face.
Robert Griffin III should have a cleaner pocket to work with and can hurt a Minnesota Secondary that is giving up almost 300 yards per game and is very banged up. However, Alfred Morris and the running game could have a tough match up this week, although the Offensive Line has opened up lanes for them. The ability of RG3 to make plays with his legs, which he is looking more and more comfortable doing recently, could make it a little tougher for the Vikings to shut down the run game.
Washington crushed Minnesota last season at home and I do think there is more upside to a team that is feeling good about themselves than there is in one that played their best game in weeks and still lost on Sunday. I'll back the Redskins here, but only for one unit.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens Pick: The Baltimore Ravens are a desperate team, but I like their position as a home underdog to knock off the Cincinnati Bengals and get back into the AFC North race.
It was a bad defeat last week at Cleveland, but that Browns Defense is definitely amongst the best in the NFL, while the Bengals are missing their two best Defensive players in Geno Atkins and Leon Hall. That may give Baltimore the chance to get their run game back on track despite the struggles of Ray Rice all season, while Joe Flacco has to play better.
The Baltimore Defense is still playing pretty well and I think they could make life tough for Andy Dalton for a second consecutive game. The Ravens shouldn't have too many issues slowing down the one paced Ben-Jarvus Green-Ellis, especially with Giovani Bernard being banged up, and Baltimore get a lot of pressure up front which should get to Dalton.
Of course he will be able to throw the ball up to AJ Green and get some yardage, but the other Receivers might not have the time to get into their routes if Dalton is getting pressure from Terrell Suggs and Elvis Dumervil. That pressure may lead to mistakes like last week against Miami and I think the Ravens could bounce back in front of their own fans so will take the points.
Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears Pick: Jay Cutler is going to start for the Chicago Bears this weekend and he could help them win a game that will make them the favourites to win the NFC North now that Aaron Rodgers is out for a few weeks for the Green Bay Packers.
Cutler will need to be at his best to see off Detroit, but the bigger key will be whether Matt Forte can continue running the ball as he has. That is an area where the Lions have struggled all season, while the Offensive Line will also offer enough protection for their Quarter Back to make the quick throws to his Receivers.
Detroit will get some push up front, but they will struggle to contain Forte and match up with the big Receiving corps and they will need Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson to spark the Offense to keep up with the Bears.
The Stafford-Johnson connection combined for 329 yards in their win over Dallas and the Lions may also have an improved running game in this one. While the Bears have been good against the run, missing Lance Briggs on Monday Night allowed Eddie Lacy to make big gains on the ground even after Rodgers was knocked out of the game. Reggie Bush should be able to make plays in this one with the added issue for the Bears to defend the pass and that balance will be important for Detroit.
However, Chicago found an improved pass rush against Green Bay and they may be able to get some pressure on Stafford and force the turnovers that almost cost the Lions the game against Dallas. Chicago's Defense has preyed on mistakes this season and I do feel that may make the difference in a game where both teams should move the chains consistently.
St Louis Rams @ Indianapolis Colts Pick: The Indianapolis Colts were fortunate to win last week, but I can't help think they are giving up too many points in this one in a game they could easily overlook.
This non-Conference game comes between games at Houston and Tennessee which are big games in terms of the AFC South, so there is every chance that the Colts are not 100% focused on this one.
My concern is that St Louis are going into a bye after this and may not be totally committed to the cause, but the Defense is capable of getting pressure on Andrew Luck who is still trying to find a 'safety valve' now that Reggie Wayne is done for the season.
The question will be whether Kellen Clemens can limit mistakes in this one if the Rams are to make it competitive, but St Louis look in a good spot to make this a close game so I will take the points.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans Pick: There has been a lot of talk this week about how the Jaguars haven't won a game since beating Tennessee, but that game was in Florida and their last game against the Titans was another blow out.
I am expecting Tennessee to be too strong for a team that has lost their biggest playmaker on Offense for the season in Justin Blackmon and this looks like a tough match up for Chad Henne. Tennessee will get a lot of pressure in Henne's face, especially with this depleted Offensive Line protecting him and I don't know how Jacksonville will move the chains consistently in this one.
Maurice Jones-Drew hasn't looked capable of breaking big runs so Jacksonville can't even rely on trying to batter Tennessee on the ground and I would be surprised if they scored more than 14 points.
Tennessee's biggest issue may be keeping their focus ahead of the all-important game against Indianapolis next week, but they may just be able to give the ball to Chris Johnson and let him pick up big chunks of yardage on the ground. That should give Jake Locker the time to do what he wants against a poor pash rush that the Jaguars generate and I do think the Titans are going to win this one with a little room to spare on the spread.
Carolina Panthers @ San Francisco 49ers Pick: Coming off a bye and playing at home looks a strong spot to back the San Francisco 49ers in this game, even though Carolina have been playing some good football in the last four weeks.
However, they haven't faced a team as good as the 49ers in that time and this is also a game that could prove invaluable for the home team in terms of Wild Card positions against one of the closest challengers in that regards.
It won't be straight forward for the 49ers, but the bye week should have given them enough time to prepare for the Offense they will be seeing, while I think their power running game is getting the best out of their own Offense. Colin Kaepernick is playing well and is getting some weapons back in the passing game and I think it is always wise to back the 49ers at home when the spread is less than a Touchdown.
Denver Broncos @ San Diego Chargers Pick: The Denver Broncos will have felt their bye week came at the right time to rest some nagging injuries and I expect them to come out fired up, especially for Head Coach John Fox who is expected to miss the rest of the season after suffering some heart issues.
I expect Peyton Manning to have his way with the San Diego Defense no matter what look he sees as they have struggled to defend the run or the pass and it would be a surprise to see Denver score less than 35 points in this one.
That means Philip Rivers will look to keep up his impressive season and I think he will also have some success in this game. San Diego have sustained long drives at times this season and will need to do that to keep Manning on the sidelines, but Rivers may have to do more with his arm than rely on the rushing attack.
Denver haven't been good against the pass so far this season, but that is also because teams are forced to throw to try and get back into games. However, they should be healthier in that unit and Von Miller's return will give Denver a more prominent pass rush. The problem for San Diego will come if they go down by a couple of scores and have to try and push to get back into this and I do think the Broncos come through and win by 10-14.
Dallas Cowboys @ New Orleans Saints Pick: I have always been a fan of backing the New Orleans Saints in their home stadium, especially under Sean Payton's guidance, and I think Dallas could be in for a tough day in the office.
Rob Ryan will also be very aware of what Dallas are going to bring to the table and I expect he will have some blitzes ready for an Offensive Line that is going to miss Brian Waters. The pressure up front is one problem for Dallas, the other is the injury that Dez Bryant is carrying with him and their best hope will be to establish a running game and keep the Saints Offense off the field.
I am also not a big fan of how the Dallas Defense allows big yards in every game through the air, especially going up against this passing attack led by Drew Brees and I think the Cowboys struggle to contain Jimmy Graham who hasn't looked as limited with his foot injury as Defenses may have hoped.
Turnovers may be the biggest issue for the Saints to deal with as Dallas have certainly been creating those, but if they don't manage to win that battle, I like the Saints to cover.
MY PICKS: Washington Redskins - 1 Point @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Baltimore Ravens + 1.5 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Chicago Bears - 1 Point @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
St Louis Rams + 9 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Tennessee Titans - 12.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
San Francisco 49ers - 5.5 Points @ 1.92 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Denver Broncos - 7 Points @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)
New Orleans Saints - 6 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Washington Redskins @ Minnesota Vikings Pick: As I said above, the Minnesota Vikings have to be heartbroken in the manner they lost against Dallas on Sunday and it may take a little time for them to get up for this game against the Washington Redskins.
Washington themselves are coming off an emotional game where they managed to keep San Diego out of the End Zone despite the Chargers having a 1st and Goal from the 1 yard line and then winning that one in overtime, but there is a feeling in the Redskins camp that they could potentially make a run similar to last year when they won the NFC East Division.
A short week won't help either team, but I am not sure how focused the Vikings will be on the Redskins considering this game fits between big games against the best of the NFC and Minnesota are not in the running for a Play Off spot. I expect they will look to Adrian Peterson to spark them again and he should find plenty of room to pick up large chunks of yardage on the ground, but I don't have the same faith in Christian Ponder making the plays he needs to, especially with likely pressure in his face.
Robert Griffin III should have a cleaner pocket to work with and can hurt a Minnesota Secondary that is giving up almost 300 yards per game and is very banged up. However, Alfred Morris and the running game could have a tough match up this week, although the Offensive Line has opened up lanes for them. The ability of RG3 to make plays with his legs, which he is looking more and more comfortable doing recently, could make it a little tougher for the Vikings to shut down the run game.
Washington crushed Minnesota last season at home and I do think there is more upside to a team that is feeling good about themselves than there is in one that played their best game in weeks and still lost on Sunday. I'll back the Redskins here, but only for one unit.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens Pick: The Baltimore Ravens are a desperate team, but I like their position as a home underdog to knock off the Cincinnati Bengals and get back into the AFC North race.
It was a bad defeat last week at Cleveland, but that Browns Defense is definitely amongst the best in the NFL, while the Bengals are missing their two best Defensive players in Geno Atkins and Leon Hall. That may give Baltimore the chance to get their run game back on track despite the struggles of Ray Rice all season, while Joe Flacco has to play better.
The Baltimore Defense is still playing pretty well and I think they could make life tough for Andy Dalton for a second consecutive game. The Ravens shouldn't have too many issues slowing down the one paced Ben-Jarvus Green-Ellis, especially with Giovani Bernard being banged up, and Baltimore get a lot of pressure up front which should get to Dalton.
Of course he will be able to throw the ball up to AJ Green and get some yardage, but the other Receivers might not have the time to get into their routes if Dalton is getting pressure from Terrell Suggs and Elvis Dumervil. That pressure may lead to mistakes like last week against Miami and I think the Ravens could bounce back in front of their own fans so will take the points.
Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears Pick: Jay Cutler is going to start for the Chicago Bears this weekend and he could help them win a game that will make them the favourites to win the NFC North now that Aaron Rodgers is out for a few weeks for the Green Bay Packers.
Cutler will need to be at his best to see off Detroit, but the bigger key will be whether Matt Forte can continue running the ball as he has. That is an area where the Lions have struggled all season, while the Offensive Line will also offer enough protection for their Quarter Back to make the quick throws to his Receivers.
Detroit will get some push up front, but they will struggle to contain Forte and match up with the big Receiving corps and they will need Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson to spark the Offense to keep up with the Bears.
The Stafford-Johnson connection combined for 329 yards in their win over Dallas and the Lions may also have an improved running game in this one. While the Bears have been good against the run, missing Lance Briggs on Monday Night allowed Eddie Lacy to make big gains on the ground even after Rodgers was knocked out of the game. Reggie Bush should be able to make plays in this one with the added issue for the Bears to defend the pass and that balance will be important for Detroit.
However, Chicago found an improved pass rush against Green Bay and they may be able to get some pressure on Stafford and force the turnovers that almost cost the Lions the game against Dallas. Chicago's Defense has preyed on mistakes this season and I do feel that may make the difference in a game where both teams should move the chains consistently.
St Louis Rams @ Indianapolis Colts Pick: The Indianapolis Colts were fortunate to win last week, but I can't help think they are giving up too many points in this one in a game they could easily overlook.
This non-Conference game comes between games at Houston and Tennessee which are big games in terms of the AFC South, so there is every chance that the Colts are not 100% focused on this one.
My concern is that St Louis are going into a bye after this and may not be totally committed to the cause, but the Defense is capable of getting pressure on Andrew Luck who is still trying to find a 'safety valve' now that Reggie Wayne is done for the season.
The question will be whether Kellen Clemens can limit mistakes in this one if the Rams are to make it competitive, but St Louis look in a good spot to make this a close game so I will take the points.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans Pick: There has been a lot of talk this week about how the Jaguars haven't won a game since beating Tennessee, but that game was in Florida and their last game against the Titans was another blow out.
I am expecting Tennessee to be too strong for a team that has lost their biggest playmaker on Offense for the season in Justin Blackmon and this looks like a tough match up for Chad Henne. Tennessee will get a lot of pressure in Henne's face, especially with this depleted Offensive Line protecting him and I don't know how Jacksonville will move the chains consistently in this one.
Maurice Jones-Drew hasn't looked capable of breaking big runs so Jacksonville can't even rely on trying to batter Tennessee on the ground and I would be surprised if they scored more than 14 points.
Tennessee's biggest issue may be keeping their focus ahead of the all-important game against Indianapolis next week, but they may just be able to give the ball to Chris Johnson and let him pick up big chunks of yardage on the ground. That should give Jake Locker the time to do what he wants against a poor pash rush that the Jaguars generate and I do think the Titans are going to win this one with a little room to spare on the spread.
Carolina Panthers @ San Francisco 49ers Pick: Coming off a bye and playing at home looks a strong spot to back the San Francisco 49ers in this game, even though Carolina have been playing some good football in the last four weeks.
However, they haven't faced a team as good as the 49ers in that time and this is also a game that could prove invaluable for the home team in terms of Wild Card positions against one of the closest challengers in that regards.
It won't be straight forward for the 49ers, but the bye week should have given them enough time to prepare for the Offense they will be seeing, while I think their power running game is getting the best out of their own Offense. Colin Kaepernick is playing well and is getting some weapons back in the passing game and I think it is always wise to back the 49ers at home when the spread is less than a Touchdown.
Denver Broncos @ San Diego Chargers Pick: The Denver Broncos will have felt their bye week came at the right time to rest some nagging injuries and I expect them to come out fired up, especially for Head Coach John Fox who is expected to miss the rest of the season after suffering some heart issues.
I expect Peyton Manning to have his way with the San Diego Defense no matter what look he sees as they have struggled to defend the run or the pass and it would be a surprise to see Denver score less than 35 points in this one.
That means Philip Rivers will look to keep up his impressive season and I think he will also have some success in this game. San Diego have sustained long drives at times this season and will need to do that to keep Manning on the sidelines, but Rivers may have to do more with his arm than rely on the rushing attack.
Denver haven't been good against the pass so far this season, but that is also because teams are forced to throw to try and get back into games. However, they should be healthier in that unit and Von Miller's return will give Denver a more prominent pass rush. The problem for San Diego will come if they go down by a couple of scores and have to try and push to get back into this and I do think the Broncos come through and win by 10-14.
Dallas Cowboys @ New Orleans Saints Pick: I have always been a fan of backing the New Orleans Saints in their home stadium, especially under Sean Payton's guidance, and I think Dallas could be in for a tough day in the office.
Rob Ryan will also be very aware of what Dallas are going to bring to the table and I expect he will have some blitzes ready for an Offensive Line that is going to miss Brian Waters. The pressure up front is one problem for Dallas, the other is the injury that Dez Bryant is carrying with him and their best hope will be to establish a running game and keep the Saints Offense off the field.
I am also not a big fan of how the Dallas Defense allows big yards in every game through the air, especially going up against this passing attack led by Drew Brees and I think the Cowboys struggle to contain Jimmy Graham who hasn't looked as limited with his foot injury as Defenses may have hoped.
Turnovers may be the biggest issue for the Saints to deal with as Dallas have certainly been creating those, but if they don't manage to win that battle, I like the Saints to cover.
MY PICKS: Washington Redskins - 1 Point @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Baltimore Ravens + 1.5 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Chicago Bears - 1 Point @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
St Louis Rams + 9 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Tennessee Titans - 12.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
San Francisco 49ers - 5.5 Points @ 1.92 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Denver Broncos - 7 Points @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)
New Orleans Saints - 6 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Week 9: 2-5, - 4.24 Units
Week 8: 5-3, + 4.64 Units
Week 7: 7-2, + 5.70 Units
Week 6: 2-7, - 8.15 Units
Week 5: 4-4, + 0.35 Units
Week 4: 7-1, + 9.27 Units
Week 3: 3-4-1, - 1.10 Units
Week 2: 6-1, + 6.46 Units
Week 8: 5-3, + 4.64 Units
Week 7: 7-2, + 5.70 Units
Week 6: 2-7, - 8.15 Units
Week 5: 4-4, + 0.35 Units
Week 4: 7-1, + 9.27 Units
Week 3: 3-4-1, - 1.10 Units
Week 2: 6-1, + 6.46 Units
Week 1: 5-6, - 3.50 Units
Season 2013: 41-33-1, + 9.43 Units
Season 2012: - 4.78 Units
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